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The Swamp

  • #73,681
  • Aug 18, 2020 6:58am Aug 18, 2020 6:58am
lets see we follow july/august 2017, we are at the top now before a retrace to 1,1660
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #73,682
  • Aug 18, 2020 7:10am Aug 18, 2020 7:10am
Quoting Lyapunov
Yeah but that's the question isn't it. (Playing devil's advocate). R:R is there to take the long on the dollar and by extension, short euro. Anyways, 1.18980 is holding really well and conversely, 9256.9 on the dollar index. Will observe and see what next. Any thoughts whether this pair will retrace?
Nothing bearish right now. Also no trigger to send it lower. Unlikely to retrace.
More likely to slowly grind higher.
Maybe if some unexpected news happens. But otherwise I don't think so.

THey had a fight this afternoon. But I think the bulls won it after we had a convincing 1h close above 1906. So my money so far is on bulls.

Edit: I'm talking about eurusd. I keep forgetting coz most of the time this thread talks about eurusd by default
  • #73,683
  • Aug 18, 2020 7:16am Aug 18, 2020 7:16am
Quoting thelws
{quote} Nothing bearish right now. Also no trigger to send it lower. Unlikely to retrace. More likely to slowly grind higher. Maybe if some unexpected news happens. But otherwise I don't think so.
Painful to watch, more painful to be in a short trade so sitting on my hands.
  • #73,684
  • Aug 18, 2020 7:17am Aug 18, 2020 7:17am
usdx direction is down. so its best to let it find some support. eu is bullish, its best to let it find some R. Sure u may miss a few pips of bottom or top. Its easier to swim downriver. You dont have to have the perfect entry. Its more forgiving to swim with the current. Salmon swim against the current a few weeks, They have sex and die. That's what most people think. They also swim downstream and find their way to the ocean and live 3 to 13 years.

Sure entering after a turn is a few hundred pips. But how is entering a few hundred pips early any better? Draw down and loss opportunity kills most accounts. Ignore if scalping.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,685
  • Aug 18, 2020 7:18am Aug 18, 2020 7:18am
Quoting Connors
{quote} Painful to watch, more painful to be in a short trade so sitting on my hands.

Hey Connors, how long will you hold, what would be your SL if it's not too much to ask?
I don't know...
  • #73,686
  • Aug 18, 2020 7:22am Aug 18, 2020 7:22am
Quoting Lyapunov
*Food for thought* From a risk to reward perspective, doesnt the dollar look like a good place to buy even though it is "catching a falling knife" Multi-year lows don't break that easily across the board. Takes news or some catalyst in order to hammer her down. I certainly wouldnt long the dollar but just some food for thought from the flip side.

"Takes news or some catalyst in order to hammer her down."...or a powerful combination of factors, such as those that have combined to bring the $US to it's current level. And momentum, which the third test currently underway is evidence of. These three touches here have all occurred in just 13 trading days. The more often a level gets tested, the more likely it is to break, especially if those tests occur this closely together. And if a level as important as this one gives way, it can open a flood gate, built up pressure, and again momentum. So the reward on that side can be substantial also.

Currently, on EU, we are also testing a weekly downtrend dating back to 2008. On my chart, we've penetrated it twice before last week, and pulled back leaving wicks above the downtrend line. Last week we penetrated it again, and closed above it at the end of the week. This is very significant, and again a sustained break here can result in a release of momentum on the other side.
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  • #73,687
  • Aug 18, 2020 7:23am Aug 18, 2020 7:23am
Quoting Kartveli
{quote} Hey Connors, how long will you hold, what would be your SL if it's not too much to ask?
Have no short/long positions atm mate. Had a few short attempts yesterday but all closed. Patiently waiting.
  • #73,688
  • Aug 18, 2020 7:25am Aug 18, 2020 7:25am
Starting short 1930
Everything is extreme up
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #73,689
  • Aug 18, 2020 7:26am Aug 18, 2020 7:26am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I see nothing bearish atm. That may mean nothing by Friday. Even if it remains bullish. That week 9 candle just needs -1840 to be red Friday. I'm not predicting. I'm trading R/R. atm bulls have momentum.. 51 pips adr atm. at 1938/41. Another 25 pips will test 1938/41. I dont have to trade here. I think 1938 41 has a good chance of being day close R. I may be wrong. 1840 and 1938 41 or 100 pips apart.
lets see if 1838 41 can hold the day close. or even push it back below 1877 to close. I think only temporarily
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,690
  • Aug 18, 2020 7:30am Aug 18, 2020 7:30am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} lets see if 1838 41 can hold the day close. or even push it back below 1877 to close. I think only temporarily
Out half.
The 100 pip whore made it lol.
Now just see if this level holds or it goes higher
  • #73,691
  • Aug 18, 2020 7:31am Aug 18, 2020 7:31am
There's an ascending support TRENDLINE (2011-2014) on the DXY that should be touched around 91,85$, somewhere in the 1,197x area of EURUSD.
I don't know...
  • #73,692
  • Aug 18, 2020 7:33am Aug 18, 2020 7:33am
DXY just closed a big red 30 M candle 9231. Breakdown
  • #73,693
  • Aug 18, 2020 7:33am Aug 18, 2020 7:33am
I not calling a top here. I'm saying this is a nice place to put a temp one. 1941
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,694
  • Aug 18, 2020 7:36am Aug 18, 2020 7:36am
EU short pending hit at 1940. SL 30pips.
  • #73,695
  • Aug 18, 2020 7:37am Aug 18, 2020 7:37am
Banked some more nice profits 1938, room for reloads now
  • #73,696
  • Aug 18, 2020 7:55am Aug 18, 2020 7:55am
watching..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,697
  • Aug 18, 2020 8:04am Aug 18, 2020 8:04am
15 min,, stops would have to be slightly above high.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,698
  • Aug 18, 2020 8:33am Aug 18, 2020 8:33am
Booked more EU profits 1.1960, benefits of multiple entries. I expect a pull back to buy lower, ADR exhausted.

One to watch. NU has performed well below it's "peers" for two weeks. Today, After Asia, it seems to be coming out of the doldrums. AN has been green 12 of last 13 trading days, including today, but today's candle turning down, possible pin bar forming.
  • #73,699
  • Aug 18, 2020 8:36am Aug 18, 2020 8:36am
Pending buy @1.1915
  • #73,700
  • Aug 18, 2020 8:57am Aug 18, 2020 8:57am
I've zoomed in left on the DXY. Red line is where we are now, 92.16 below every low point to the right. On the edge of the old cliff.
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