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The Swamp

  • #73,661
  • Aug 18, 2020 4:03am Aug 18, 2020 4:03am
1r/4h bulls win. Next Day above 1877. 1938 41 may be the next day to beat above 1877.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,662
  • Aug 18, 2020 4:07am Aug 18, 2020 4:07am
Quoting gatorinla
1r/4h bulls win. Next Day above 1877. 1938 41 may be the next day to beat above 1877. {image}

Hey Gator, does it look like a 9th green week candle to you?
I don't know...
  • #73,663
  • Aug 18, 2020 4:23am Aug 18, 2020 4:23am
Quoting Kartveli
{quote} Hey Gator, does it look like a 9th green week candle to you?
I see nothing bearish atm. That may mean nothing by Friday. Even if it remains bullish. That week 9 candle just needs -1840 to be red Friday. I'm not predicting. I'm trading R/R. atm bulls have momentum.. 51 pips adr atm. at 1938/41. Another 25 pips will test 1938/41. I dont have to trade here.

I think 1938 41 has a good chance of being day close R. I may be wrong. 1840 and 1938 41 or 100 pips apart.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,664
  • Aug 18, 2020 4:36am Aug 18, 2020 4:36am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I see nothing bearish atm. That may mean nothing by Friday. Even if it remains bullish. That week 9 candle just needs -1840 to be red Friday. I'm not predicting. I'm trading R/R. atm bulls have momentum.. 51 pips adr atm. at 1938/41. Another 25 pips will test 1938/41. I dont have to trade here. I think 1938 41 has a good chance of being day close R. I may be wrong. 1840 and 1938 41 or 100 pips apart.
Very bullish, along with highest short USD in years, and highest long EUR in years, this should break the top at least for some profit taking.
  • #73,665
  • Aug 18, 2020 4:44am Aug 18, 2020 4:44am
or they may not even take profit and just ride the pig forever and be happy ever after or even until Re-tired
  • #73,666
  • Aug 18, 2020 4:55am Aug 18, 2020 4:55am
Quoting TuTang
or they may not even take profit and just ride the pig forever and be happy ever after or even until Re-tired
A week/month close above 1901 looks to want 2131. It could be R if not.. Day wise 1938 or 41 needs to be beat to rise. I'm getting ahead of my skis. Day still needs the 1877+ close. That 4h/12h close above 1901 is not bearish to me. Its still not a day or week above 1901.. Just a test.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,667
  • Aug 18, 2020 4:59am Aug 18, 2020 4:59am
Quoting TuTang
{quote} Very bullish, along with highest short USD in years, and highest long EUR in years, this should break the top at least for some profit taking.
The positionning suggest a reversal, at some big profits taking
but the Price is suggesting weakneasses in the dollar

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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #73,668
  • Aug 18, 2020 5:04am Aug 18, 2020 5:04am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} The positionning suggest a reversal, at some big profits taking but the Price is suggesting weakneasses in the dollar {image}
Thats what i think will happen and very fast when it hit a certain level that they want to book their profit, but consider that somebody bought in at 1.17 they will look to book in for may be 200 or 300 ticks and consider price closing at high right now, a break up will lead to that sort of event happen. for now, they will hold it. timing for this now should be from now until friday, or may be next tuesday that they will start unloading their position. This will be the last break up of this current leg
  • #73,669
  • Aug 18, 2020 5:05am Aug 18, 2020 5:05am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} done for this one, av short 1779 will manage this one

Just curious whether you are still holding these mate. If yes any stops planned?

I would be looking to buy closer to your short entry.
  • #73,670
  • Aug 18, 2020 5:08am Aug 18, 2020 5:08am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} The positionning suggest a reversal, at some big profits taking but the Price is suggesting weakneasses in the dollar {image}

One can interpret that fresh EUR buyers are entering into the market as well since the dumps are all absorbed and price action might have slowed down but it is still pointing up.
  • #73,671
  • Aug 18, 2020 5:15am Aug 18, 2020 5:15am
Quoting Connors
{quote} Just curious whether you are still holding these mate. If yes any stops planned? I would be looking to buy closer to your short entry.
No mate, its long gone

But still selling at we rise, based on the current dollar positionning
It may takes weeks though

It reminds me of the move from 1,4 to 1,04 though....so back to 1,35 at least?

I'll keep shorting for something below 1,16 (cluster of candle on the daily chart)
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #73,672
  • Aug 18, 2020 5:16am Aug 18, 2020 5:16am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} The positionning suggest a reversal, at some big profits taking but the Price is suggesting weakneasses in the dollar {image}
Dears

From my point USD Hedge Funds Sentiment started to be bullish slowly.

Sincerely
MG
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  • #73,673
  • Aug 18, 2020 5:24am Aug 18, 2020 5:24am
Quoting Kefasa
{quote} Dears From my point USD Hedge Funds Sentiment started to be bullish slowly. Sincerely MG {image}
Yes money managers are net long on this dip for the past 2 weeks
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #73,674
  • Aug 18, 2020 5:26am Aug 18, 2020 5:26am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Yes money managers are net long on this dip for the past 2 weeks
so how do you see this position on the money mangers VS the hedge funds. What is typical the trends for the two categories?
  • #73,675
  • Aug 18, 2020 5:36am Aug 18, 2020 5:36am
Quoting krst8
{quote} so how do you see this position on the money mangers VS the hedge funds. What is typical the trends for the two categories?
Both are the same, money managers are in the category of the hedge funds, as opposed to the assets managers
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #73,676
  • Aug 18, 2020 5:45am Aug 18, 2020 5:45am
DXY 3rd time at recent low. Wick today lowest level of the three, now candle body back to dead even, 92.52, with last time here. Big battle today. May bounce a bit, I'm backing a break down.
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  • #73,677
  • Aug 18, 2020 5:59am Aug 18, 2020 5:59am
*Food for thought*

From a risk to reward perspective, doesnt the dollar look like a good place to buy even though it is "catching a falling knife" Multi-year lows don't break that easily across the board. Takes news or some catalyst in order to hammer her down.

I certainly wouldnt long the dollar but just some food for thought from the flip side.
  • #73,678
  • Aug 18, 2020 6:35am Aug 18, 2020 6:35am
Quoting Lyapunov
*Food for thought* From a risk to reward perspective, doesnt the dollar look like a good place to buy even though it is "catching a falling knife" Multi-year lows don't break that easily across the board. Takes news or some catalyst in order to hammer her down. I certainly wouldnt long the dollar but just some food for thought from the flip side.
Yes it is.
You can try to go long the dollar with a tight stop. If you're wrong, you lose less. If you're right, you make more.

However you need to understand that timing your trade is only half of the equation.
You also need to get the direction right. If you keep getting the direction wrong, you're still going to die a thousand cuts.

An edge only tells you what direction to trade.
Timing and money management will determine how much you win or lose when you're right/wrong.

And right now I believe fundamentally, usd should continue to be weak. It won't suddenly turn positive just because you think it is technically a good spot to buy.
  • #73,679
  • Aug 18, 2020 6:35am Aug 18, 2020 6:35am
Quoting Lyapunov
*Food for thought* From a risk to reward perspective, doesnt the dollar look like a good place to buy even though it is "catching a falling knife" Multi-year lows don't break that easily across the board. Takes news or some catalyst in order to hammer her down. I certainly wouldnt long the dollar but just some food for thought from the flip side.
No. Lesson is that price can go in one direction forever. Thats why they have stoploss. And nothing is cheap or expensive in the market. If u buy at 1.19 and 2 week from now its at 1.25 then its not even close to expensive.
  • #73,680
  • Aug 18, 2020 6:38am Aug 18, 2020 6:38am
Yeah but that's the question isn't it. (Playing devil's advocate). R:R is there to take the long on the dollar and by extension, short euro.

Anyways, 1.18980 is holding really well and conversely, 9256.9 on the dollar index. Will observe and see what next. Any thoughts whether this pair will retrace?
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