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The Swamp

  • #73,621
  • Aug 16, 2020 2:24pm Aug 16, 2020 2:24pm
if she can retrace 50 pips, I look to long. 100/2=50
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,622
  • Edited 9:02pm Aug 16, 2020 6:08pm | Edited 9:02pm
Sold AC several entries .9510-39

If you draw neckline at 9540 (I had 9520 b4), head 9696, gives roughly 150 pip target at around 9400
If 9520 is used as neckline (I think this is the correct level) then target would be 170 pips, about 9350
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  • #73,623
  • Aug 16, 2020 7:19pm Aug 16, 2020 7:19pm
missed a long entry.. It looks like a new high coming this week to me..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,624
  • Aug 16, 2020 7:41pm Aug 16, 2020 7:41pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i'm a whore,, i will go with the flow. give some confirmation
Yup... i think its bullish too. Very bullish early in the week. 9 weeks green is true. i notice AUD also 9 weeks green. Probably usd too weak. I just dont want to rule out possible scenario here
  • #73,625
  • Aug 16, 2020 9:09pm Aug 16, 2020 9:09pm
Quoting TuTang
{quote} XD i miss that audcad that the end too. Im hopping to Aj will probably try to shoot that 77.0 and probably more EA when it break the top here. Gator made the point with that price is driven by demand and supply, nothing to do with fundamental. I read many swing traders ideas sometimes the best ones draw conclusion in the opposite direction. Priceline is the only thing that set the direction.
Yeah, both of us should have hung onto our AC shorts from the peak. Did you long AJ? It's pushing hard on the 765 resistance, fourth day in a row, looks likely to break above
  • #73,626
  • Aug 16, 2020 9:26pm Aug 16, 2020 9:26pm
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} Yeah, both of us should have hung onto our AC shorts from the peak. Did you long AJ? It's pushing hard on the 765 resistance, fourth day in a row, looks likely to break above
I didnt long. In fact, im looking for short. I read somewhere that Aj rise was due to demand in Aussie bond from Japan rising past few month. They will probably drive it down a bit on AJ to get a good bid on Aussie bond at lower price level. Nonetheless, yes i think Yen Pairs (including AJ ofc) are bullish, just in case aj rise and break R ill long on Pullback. Booked some 70 pips in EJ last week. Im looking for more EJ long this week. Probably if UJ hit 106.190 ill long EJ.

Structurally speaking, AUD a bit over stretched on Weekly and its losing steam at W1 SMA 200. Probably a good bet that we will have at least one red week on Aud and probably AUD crosses.

Wave 2 covid is a real thing across the world now. So should be careful with sudden risk leg coming. My country just had a new cluster after 99 days free from covid and few cities going back to confinement already. Hard to understand the us equities ongoing rise with all this.
  • #73,627
  • Aug 17, 2020 1:25am Aug 17, 2020 1:25am
Quoting TuTang
{quote} I didnt long. In fact, im looking for short. I read somewhere that Aj rise was due to demand in Aussie bond from Japan rising past few month. They will probably drive it down a bit on AJ to get a good bid on Aussie bond at lower price level. Nonetheless, yes i think Yen Pairs (including AJ ofc) are bullish, just in case aj rise and break R ill long on Pullback. Booked some 70 pips in EJ last week. Im looking for more EJ long this week. Probably if UJ hit 106.190 ill long EJ. Structurally speaking, AUD a bit over stretched on Weekly and its...
trillions in printing plus where else can one go with it? At some point the less widgets being made made, has to be justified in the stock price. We just are not there yet. After the trillions are absorbed. I suspect it will. Meanwhile more trillions are on the horizon.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,628
  • Aug 17, 2020 1:36am Aug 17, 2020 1:36am
GBPUSD AUGUST - DECEMBER RANGES (2011 - 2019)

2011 ... 1.6617 - 1.5272 = 1345 pips
2012 ... 1.5489 - 1.6308 = 819 pips
2013 ... 1.5102 - 1.6577 = 1475 pips
2014 ... 1.6892 - 1.5485 = 1407 pips
2015 ... 1.5818 - 1.4733 = 1085 pips
2017 ... 1.2773 - 1.3656 = 883 pips
2018 ... 1.3298 - 1.2476 = 822 pips
2019 ... 1.1958 - 1.3514 = 1556 pips

Minimum : 819
Average : 1187
Maximum : 1556

Now August - December 2020 Range Permutations and Probabilities...
Making use of minimum Aug - Dec. (819 pips)

UPSIDE
If 1.2750 low + 819 = 1.3569
If 1.2850 low + 819 = 1.3669
If 1.2950 low + 819 = 1.3769

DOWNSIDE
1.3200 - 819 = 1.2381
Upside looks more vulnerable... So any fall to 1.29/1.28/1.29 has to be bought with a great deal of caution and flexibility.

A research except, no obligation to follow.

George
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #73,629
  • Aug 17, 2020 1:39am Aug 17, 2020 1:39am
Sisse... https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=9558395

--> As highlighted in the yearly outlook. If Euro holds this massive last risk hurdle (standing against populism, nationalism and the destruction of the common market and getting rid of the UK as the ugly duckling in the EU) this year, it will become a very powerful and in its own right global currency alternative especially with Dollar and Yuan hijacked by politics and national interest instead of economic factors and with Sterling leaving a huge piece of the cake for grabbing in the FX board after Brexit.

this is ageing well
  • #73,630
  • Aug 17, 2020 1:49am Aug 17, 2020 1:49am
Quoting cashfactor
Sisse... https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=9558395 --> As highlighted in the yearly outlook. If Euro holds this massive last risk hurdle (standing against populism, nationalism and the destruction of the common market and getting rid of the UK as the ugly duckling in the EU) this year, it will become a very powerful and in its own right global currency alternative especially with Dollar and Yuan hijacked by politics and national interest instead of economic factors and with Sterling leaving a huge piece of the cake for grabbing...
deciphered 3.5 years later is a good thing.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,631
  • Aug 17, 2020 2:16am Aug 17, 2020 2:16am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I would like to buy 1787/84 against a 4h close below 1783.
I need to change to a retrace, where 1809 holds the 4h and 1826 holds the 1h. in scenario #1. 1 would be more an averaged entry buy.

Or in scenario 2, I would like to buy 1787/84 against a 4h close below 1783.

That last 4h was bear engulfed. I have to see what happens to #1.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,632
  • Aug 17, 2020 2:45am Aug 17, 2020 2:45am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I need to change to a retrace, where 1809 holds the 4h and 1826 holds the 1h. in scenario #1. 1 would be more an averaged entry buy. Or in scenario 2, I would like to buy 1787/84 against a 4h close below 1783. That last 4h was bear engulfed. I have to see what happens to #1.
Pa is stuck in cluster fk..... 2 days in a row.
  • #73,633
  • Aug 17, 2020 2:48am Aug 17, 2020 2:48am
Quoting TuTang
{quote} Pa is stuck in cluster fk..... 2 days in a row.
lc week was bullish. I'm just looking to buy a drop. I may have already missed it. 1838 may turn to future support. The last 4h close gave me hope 1809 would have been tested. I was hoping to have a shot at it or 1801.. or 1783. I generically have a pending for 178x..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,634
  • Aug 17, 2020 2:52am Aug 17, 2020 2:52am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} lc week was bullish. I'm just looking to buy a drop. I may have already missed it. 1838 may turn to future support.
it seems all small dips is buy lats h1 was very bullish dip.
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  • #73,635
  • Aug 17, 2020 2:59am Aug 17, 2020 2:59am
Quoting TuTang
{quote} it seems all small dips is buy lats h1 was very bullish dip. {image}
exactly. treasure is wasted on shorts. Let the elephants beat down the tall grass South. We can follow them after. For now, the elephants are headed north. Follow the path of least resistance.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,636
  • Aug 17, 2020 4:01am Aug 17, 2020 4:01am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} exactly. treasure is wasted on shorts. Let the elephants beat down the tall grass South. We can follow them after. For now, the elephants are headed north. Follow the path of least resistance.
Well said
  • #73,637
  • Aug 17, 2020 6:47am Aug 17, 2020 6:47am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I'm long biased. The fact is pa is inside, 1714/1876. Mopping the floor has to be proven. I would like to short at some point. I dont see that point yet. I tried Friday to catch a red week and missed. Its not worth trying here at 1840. Maybe later on a rise. I think bulls need 1938/41 closed above. Or it drops some. Lets see how it plays out. Bears are not going far w/o a -1736 close, later -1714 close. Bulls cant rise w/o a 1876+ close. eu loves 100 pips.. 1736, 1840 close. 1938/41 fits....
A lc b/o, is a close above 1901. NY +1876 day close.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,638
  • Aug 17, 2020 7:00am Aug 17, 2020 7:00am
shorted eu at 1.1880 will close over 1.19. maybe 1.1630 around correction. it seems hard but not impossible
  • #73,639
  • Aug 17, 2020 7:01am Aug 17, 2020 7:01am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} A lc b/o, is a close above 1901. NY +1876 day close.
test time 1876. I hope you studied. It will go on your permanent record. (lc test 1901)

I say pa is bullish (opinion), the test still have to be passed (fact).
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,640
  • Aug 17, 2020 7:04am Aug 17, 2020 7:04am
Hey guys, sorry if wrong page? Anyone compared CFD spreads lately and top of book volumes? Looking for DAX, US500, Dow and Nasdaq. Who wins? Or where to ask?
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