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Time and Price Forecasting

  • #2,481
  • Edited 4:23pm Aug 15, 2020 4:12pm | Edited 4:23pm
P
Quoting Thakkx
{quote} I am bit lost, so just wanted to understand further. According to the last video thad DM posted, Quad was use to predict where the reversal (D) will be, while you have overlaid on CD Leg and then repurpose the Quad to scale the chart to fit Quad within Emblem, right? If we go by this method D is already form as we used that for Quad, so basically we only get trade signal after CD leg, right? My take on GBPUSD attached that predicted again D on 64 angle to precise under 10 pip. Also if someone confirm the two chart i put in my last post and...
Determine x to a....all calculations from that point....the one I show is X,A,B,C,D, 1,2, and next stop 3.

so D was my first short, I skipped the long at 1 due to that annoying thing called SLEEP, then continued to 2 where I shorted heavy,,,,,the pattern was correct so no more toyo tires on my Expedition, Michelin all the way

(ps....note that number 3 could very well be a bounce of the 52 Degree, Becks favourite angle
  • #2,482
  • Aug 15, 2020 5:59pm Aug 15, 2020 5:59pm
Quoting Swede
P{quote} Determine x to a....all calculations from that point....the one I show is X,A,B,C,D, 1,2, and next stop 3. so D was my first short, I skipped the long at 1 due to that annoying thing called SLEEP, then continued to 2 where I shorted heavy,,,,,the pattern was correct so no more toyo tires on my Expedition, Michelin all the way (ps....note that number 3 could very well be a bounce of the 52 Degree, Becks favourite angle
Thanks swede, but I am bit slow learner and not entirely understand but will follow silently and hopefully will understand in the process. What I meant was, as you laid your quad on CD leg and then you mentioned to lay the emblem and scale the chart to fit the far end of the quad inside the emblem. So basically the signal from emblem will only be seen after D leg unless I misunderstood your post. Yes you would have speculated on BCD123 after XA based on gartley pattern on it's own but not through emblem. Thanks anyway for replying in first place.
  • #2,483
  • Aug 15, 2020 11:33pm Aug 15, 2020 11:33pm
Hi Guys, let me say this: the Quad, and Beck's Emblem are exceptional tools when used properly. I can only mention what I know and have learned in the past. The rest is up to you... The Quadrilateral, and Beck's Emblem only work well when there is a Gartley Pattern. Yes, Beck's success rate is legendary. The reason why it's legendary is because he chooses the battles he can win. Hence, he only trades a Gartley pattern first, then applies the Beck's emblem, then the quad. One might argue, but Gartley patterns don't come around that often? True, That's why he 1st Scans the entire internet of Nasdaq, NYSE, FOREX, Stocks , Commodities. Then when found it basically in scanning >10K companies you may find two or three that a TIGHT Gartley pattern showed up. He evaluates and takes the trade. Thus... He had only high probability winning trades. Never be foolish to lose you money, do your research, Proper Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance.
DM
You NEVER will be the person you could be, without pressure & discipline
  • #2,484
  • Aug 16, 2020 9:31am Aug 16, 2020 9:31am
Quoting Swede
{quote} I salute the work jeanlouie and Rubernet put into the emblem and quadrilateral.....I didnt think it would work until I discovered something unique about how to use it. The quadrilateral is unique in that it is drawn from levels, highs, lows of various swings....now even mt4 works splendidly when considersing support or resistance from horizontal levels...that is why pivot zones, fib retracement zones and so on work very well and scaling is not an issue when considering these highs or lows....so once the quadrilateral is in place on a chart,...
Swede

you know my pet subjects : Envelopes and Centered Moving Averages ..... and Hand Drawing !

let's apply Quadrilateral to Envelopes Tops and Lows

Results are .... questioning - at least -
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  • #2,485
  • Edited 2:48pm Aug 16, 2020 10:17am | Edited 2:48pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Swede you know my pet subjects : Envelopes and Centered Moving Averages ..... and Hand Drawing ! let's apply Quadrilateral to Envelopes Tops and Lows Results are .... questioning - at least - {image} {image}
Alain,....not hard to see the end of your quad touching that 256 envelope...so one can just trade the envelopes or add another dimension to the picture by using the quadrilateral....either way, there are trades up in that area....and that brings me to my last post using the Becks Emblem and the quad.....I was using the envelope 5 min charts for all my entries both Thursday and Friday, at the same time I noticed the gartley pattern and decided to have a look to see if it showed the same areas as my trading chart...sure enough I would have traded using the emblem or the envelopes, or just the 1 hour pivot chart...same trade, same conditions.....oversold and reversing off those levels.

I seldom use just one method...but I always, always have a weekly pivot chart running to gauge levels of interest. the 5 minute envelope chart works great for pinpointing entries....either way, there are many ways to skin the Forex cat.
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  • #2,486
  • Aug 16, 2020 2:01pm Aug 16, 2020 2:01pm
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  • #2,487
  • Aug 16, 2020 3:27pm Aug 16, 2020 3:27pm
Quoting DiamondMiner
Hi Guys, let me say this: the Quad, and Beck's Emblem are exceptional tools when used properly. I can only mention what I know and have learned in the past. The rest is up to you... The Quadrilateral, and Beck's Emblem only work well when there is a Gartley Pattern. Yes, Beck's success rate is legendary. The reason why it's legendary is because he chooses the battles he can win. Hence, he only trades a Gartley pattern first, then applies the Beck's emblem, then the quad. One might argue, but Gartley patterns don't come around that often? True, That's...
Well said Peter........I have noticed a lot of newcomers of late, many new to trading but all struggling with the issues of time and price, to those I would like to say this:

There exists a simple way to trade the markets and that is price only. Fib levels, retracements and extensions, support resistance, supply demand, price action, fundamentals, 2000 indicators found in FF.....all trading only price....and get this..they all work with variable results if one becomes proficient with any of them. Just take pivot trading for example, daily pivots do not work the best, but go to weekly and you have several sound, tradeable, levels offered daily, especially when price has reached its average daily range. Its all about price and you can do well just paying attention to price like 300,000 traders do every day. It seems easy, so this is the methods most adopt...there is also a lazy factor never to be overlooked.

Now add the time factor into the equation and you have some work to do. How does one find an area, an edge where time tells you the market has run its course and should now reverse..(emphasis on should) Gann figured it out on his yearly, monthly, weekly, daily charts (hand drawn) Hurst had it figured out with the envelopes and cycles, Jenkins and Beck have it figured out with diagonals, square roots establishment of support resistance and turning points. Parisboy , Diamond Miner and others have it figured out and so can you...... BUT it takes a ton of time to study, test, calculate, draw, divide, subtract, multiply until you find a formula that works pretty good (there are no perfect methods or systems) And all of this only to give you an edge, not a foolproof system.

The work that has been done on Becks Emblem is great, and after a year or so of practice and failure, you may have a working model that works most of the time with mt4. And that is great, but if you listen to Beck, he waits until conditions shown by PRICE ACTION (Gartley) before he gets interested in a trade. The emblem itself is great because when drawn you have some important diagonals, so that in itself is useful, but if you think price will bounce off the 52 degree just because it is hesitating for a moment or two, you will be disappointed.

So, from my years of trading I can say this...take your time, experiment, find things that work for you, your risk factors, your timeline, your emotions, your families needs and dont expect just because you now have Optuma charts your automatically going to succeed, that is only a fantasy. Learn the basics of time and price as a unit before ever venturing into a big investment....once you get the connection then it is worth investing in better tools..imho

Swede
  • #2,488
  • Aug 16, 2020 4:10pm Aug 16, 2020 4:10pm
Quoting Swede
{quote} I salute the work jeanlouie and Rubernet put into the emblem and quadrilateral.....I didnt think it would work until I discovered something unique about how to use it. The quadrilateral is unique in that it is drawn from levels, highs, lows of various swings....now even mt4 works splendidly when considersing support or resistance from horizontal levels...that is why pivot zones, fib retracement zones and so on work very well and scaling is not an issue when considering these highs or lows....so once the quadrilateral is in place on a chart,...
Hi Swede

Among my pet subject Classifying and Hierarchizing Swings (Waves, Cycles, Patterns, Harmonic Patterns etc, it is all the same thing) is one of my preferred.

Incidentally it is the reason why I consider Ellioticians as stupid, irrational and incompetent ! just my 2 cents

In short it is not hard to observe that patterns (whatever your preferred pattern is ) are not of the same nature, degree , order.

I am a rookie in the world of quadrilaterals - but it is all the same for quadrilaterals as for ALL others patterns
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  • #2,489
  • Edited 4:44pm Aug 16, 2020 4:28pm | Edited 4:44pm
If we analyze both Swings A-D and 1-4, we observe that both Swings have the same Magnitude (Price) (Hurst Principle of Commonality ) but not the same Period (Time) (Hurst Principle of Variation )

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  • #2,490
  • Aug 16, 2020 4:41pm Aug 16, 2020 4:41pm
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  • #2,491
  • Aug 16, 2020 4:47pm Aug 16, 2020 4:47pm
Even Parisboy, with all his years trading, still waits for his Heiken candles to turn colour before entry, ensuring adherence to this principal...
  • #2,492
  • Aug 16, 2020 4:55pm Aug 16, 2020 4:55pm
Look at this Presentation of the book " Forex Waves"

Then you will REALLY understand WHY Quadrilaterals and Connectors are important for your Trading !
Attached Images
Attached File(s)
File Type: pptx WAVES A STATISTICAL APPROACH english.pptx   646 KB | 385 downloads
  • #2,493
  • Aug 16, 2020 5:17pm Aug 16, 2020 5:17pm
Impulsive Waves matter !
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  • #2,494
  • Aug 16, 2020 5:27pm Aug 16, 2020 5:27pm
This page is becoming very hot more than the recent normal. I see here becoming a convocation centre of trades master minds. Time, price and pattern is a sure way to follow.
  • #2,495
  • Edited Aug 17, 2020 4:42am Aug 16, 2020 5:39pm | Edited Aug 17, 2020 4:42am
IF you give value to rationality

IF you want to understand , use and trade Waves and the FOUR operative Waves Patterns which matter to trade

Read , Study and Practice FOREX WAVES of the late James Bickford (RIP)

To summarize Ross Beck is not a genius !

With his "Quadrilaterals " Beck works on sound territory :

Both Impulsive Waves and Connectors can easily be converted in "Quadrilaterals" - you just have to draw 2 straight lines

Hence bullish or bearish these 2 Patterns count for 68 % of all Waves patterns (for Swings of 35 pips and above)

Then with "Quadrilaterals" you cover 68 % of the trading territory

I prefer this approach because such patterns described as "quadrilaterals" are everywhere, on all financial instruments. Hence I spare me time and energy to search a specific pattern ( Gartley) through thousands of financial entities
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf FOREX WAVE THEORY.pdf   5.9 MB | 632 downloads
  • #2,496
  • Edited 6:23pm Aug 16, 2020 6:03pm | Edited 6:23pm
The Initial Test • Year 2005
•

• Study on > 29 Millions Ticks in the Forex Euro / Usd Database

•
• Trader : Duane Archer
• Programmer : James Bickford

•Main criterion
•
•The criterion for identifying a configuration in 3 waves is the existing relationship between the heights of each of the 3 waves.
•
•3 logical operators :
•
•> greaterthan
•= equal to
•< smallerthan
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  • #2,497
  • Aug 17, 2020 4:59am Aug 17, 2020 4:59am
Quoting Swede
{quote} so, to those looking for a sound method, and you think you found it in JSA, emblems, quadrilaterals, pivots, fundamental news events, envelopes or some other method that some may seem to have great results, you still need to practice sound entry methods, or you will loose your shorts if you insist on entering the top or bottom of a chart. One of the top traders, lecturers who has developed absolutely great methods, still only enters the market at the top of the low candle (closed)for long, or the low of the high candle (closed) and always...
Swede

Quadrilaterals are everywhere even in DAX 1 mn
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  • #2,498
  • Aug 17, 2020 5:05am Aug 17, 2020 5:05am
Hurst would have said " robust, but not bad "
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  • #2,499
  • Aug 17, 2020 5:16am Aug 17, 2020 5:16am
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  • #2,500
  • Aug 17, 2020 5:58am Aug 17, 2020 5:58am
seems gann was on to something or on something one or the other
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