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Stop searching for the 'Holy Grail', work on yourself!

  • #601
  • Aug 13, 2020 9:06am Aug 13, 2020 9:06am
Why did I ask this question? Because many traders find it difficult to do the right thing during such times. Any takers?

KP

Quoting KeenPips
What do you do when the markets are awry for your trading system or trading style? KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #602
  • Aug 13, 2020 6:35pm Aug 13, 2020 6:35pm
Quoting KeenPips
Why did I ask this question? Because many traders find it difficult to do the right thing during such times. Any takers? KP {quote}
Stay out of the market (Example: Low volatility periods like - bank holidays, high volatility periods like interest rate decisions etc). Sometimes the best trade is no trade at all. Preserve the capital and wait for the right opportunity.
  • #603
  • Aug 13, 2020 10:38pm Aug 13, 2020 10:38pm
Agreed 100 %

Stay safe, trade safe.

KP

Quoting Smmtrader
{quote} Stay out of the market (Example: Low volatility periods like - bank holidays, high volatility periods like interest rate decisions etc). Sometimes the best trade is no trade at all. Preserve the capital and wait for the right opportunity.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #604
  • Aug 14, 2020 2:21am Aug 14, 2020 2:21am
Quoting KeenPips
What do you do when the markets are awry for your trading system or trading style? KP
Hi, newbie here. How do I know that the markets are awry for my trading system?
I assume that every trading system has set of fixed rules. However, if I try to convert any trading system into the form of an expert advisor, it will become unprofitable after a while (in a backtesting). So how do I know that the markets are awry for my trading system and that it is not just statistics kicking in (I cannot be right on every trade)? If the market offers me a trade that has (according to my system) a high probability of success, why wouldn't I take it this time?
  • #605
  • Aug 14, 2020 6:17am Aug 14, 2020 6:17am
Quoting KeenPips
Agreed 100 % Stay safe, trade safe. KP {quote}
Thanks, KeenPips. Green pips and stay safe.
  • #606
  • Aug 15, 2020 3:06am Aug 15, 2020 3:06am
Quoting Sumlord
{quote} Hi, newbie here. How do I know that the markets are awry for my trading system? I assume that every trading system has set of fixed rules. However, if I try to convert any trading system into the form of an expert advisor, it will become unprofitable after a while (in a backtesting). So how do I know that the markets are awry for my trading system and that it is not just statistics kicking in (I cannot be right on every trade)? If the market offers me a trade that has (according to my system) a high probability of success, why wouldn't I...
KP may have a different take on your Q but IMO whatever method you adopt it still comes down to the old adage of "10,000 hours of screentime". There are no shortcuts.
  • #607
  • Aug 15, 2020 8:31am Aug 15, 2020 8:31am
Quoting mallee
{quote} KP may have a different take on your Q but IMO whatever method you adopt it still comes down to the old adage of "10,000 hours of screentime". There are no shortcuts.
With EA backtesting, I can have 175,000 hours of "screentime" (20 years of data). So I do not think that this is the case.
  • #608
  • Aug 15, 2020 2:35pm Aug 15, 2020 2:35pm
How much success will that give you? How far will that help you develop as a trader?

KP

Quoting Sumlord
{quote} With EA backtesting, I can have 175,000 hours of "screentime" (20 years of data). So I do not think that this is the case.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #609
  • Aug 15, 2020 2:38pm Aug 15, 2020 2:38pm
Yes, mate. Screen time is important. But we need to know what we want out of it. If screen time is spent to learn more about the markets, and to monitor, review and assess how our system/strategy is performing that will be great.

Stay safe, trade safe mate.

KP

Quoting mallee
.. "10,000 hours of screentime". There are no shortcuts.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #610
  • Aug 15, 2020 2:46pm Aug 15, 2020 2:46pm
I am happy that you have indirectly answered your own question. The second part of the quote below is the key: If the market does not go your way, if you cannot decipher the market or if the market is screwing up your system. Simply put: If you cannot find success in the prevailing market condition, what would you do?

Stay safe, trade safe.

KP

Quoting Sumlord
... How do I know that the markets are awry for my trading system?...If the market offers me a trade that has (according to my system) a high probability of success, why wouldn't I take it this time?
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #611
  • Edited 6:54pm Aug 15, 2020 4:41pm | Edited 6:54pm
The quote in KeenPip's text signature holds the key - "Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money"

My one cent - The forex markets are highly manipulated by SM / MM. They are aware of every indicator known to retail traders and will move the market in a manner that results in most retail traders losing their trades. Similar is the case with most EAs.
  • #612
  • Aug 15, 2020 10:29pm Aug 15, 2020 10:29pm
I am in agreement with you mate.

Stay safe, trade safe and prosper.

KP
Quoting Smmtrader
...The forex markets are highly manipulated by SM / MM. They are aware of every indicator known to retail traders and will move the market in a manner that results in most retail traders losing their trades. Similar is the case with most EAs.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #613
  • Aug 15, 2020 11:49pm Aug 15, 2020 11:49pm
Quoting Smmtrader
The quote in KeenPip's text signature holds the key - "Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money" My one cent - The forex markets are highly manipulated by SM / MM. They are aware of every indicator known to retail traders and will move the market in a manner that results in most retail traders losing their trades. Similar is the case with most EAs.
Every trading strategy of any trader can be transformed into the form of EA. Even famous strategies from this forum as "Trading made simple" were already transformed and are not profitable in the long run. So if trader is profitable, the same EA is not and you are telling that it is because of the knowledge of when the markets are awry to that particular system, then what I am curious about is "how do I know that the markets are awry". Because than it is just an additional set of rules, that I can implement and make the system "think" the same way as trader does.
  • #614
  • Edited 2:55am Aug 16, 2020 1:42am | Edited 2:55am
Quoting Sumlord
{quote} With EA backtesting, I can have 175,000 hours of "screentime" (20 years of data). So I do not think that this is the case.
Backtesting is good but it has a major problem imo, anyone with a system can look at a past chart and easily spot A+ opportunities but spotting such opportunities in a live chart and actually taking them is not as easy as it was backtesting, and of course no two setups play exactly the same thing just similar. so when you code EAs, it's not possible to give them the discretion to avoid some certain trades even though the look like our setups and I think that's where the problem with EAs and basing strategies on just backtesting.


Just thought it might be possible, does anyone know any EAs that have discretion kind of like AIs
  • #615
  • Aug 16, 2020 2:36am Aug 16, 2020 2:36am
Good point mate. A demo or micro live testing is my personal and preferred approach.

Stay safe, trade safe.

KP

Quoting godlike
...Backtesting is good but it has a major problem imo, anyone with a system can look at a past chart and easily spot A+ opportunities but spotting such opportunities in a live chart and actually taking them is not as easy as it was backtesting, and of course no too setups play exactly the same thing just similar....
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #616
  • Edited 11:19am Aug 16, 2020 7:38am | Edited 11:19am
Quoting Sumlord
{quote} ............... So if trader is profitable, the same EA is not and you are telling that it is because of the knowledge of when the markets are awry to that particular system, then what I am curious about is "how do I know that the markets are awry". Because than it is just an additional set of rules, that I can implement and make the system "think" the same way as trader does.
IMHO - If a trader is profitable, the trader is probably just not following a given set of rules. The trader is probably using his/her experience along with money management and the "right" trading mindset. There is probably no automated trading system that is better than a trained, disciplined trader with the right mindset.

SM / MM has the capability to create an illusion that a "set of rules" work and then eventually, move the market in such a manner as to invalidate those rules. SM / MM can create an "awry" market condition when they choose to do so. This can result in the EA's or Indicators that work in certain conditions to stop working and even result in giving back all the profits gained earlier and some more.

Simply put, there are certain known market conditions that a trader can avoid ( very low liquidity, extremely high volatility conditions etc) but cannot predict when the market conditions will turn into "awry" for a given system.

The title of this thread - Stop searching for the 'Holy Grail', work on yourself! really makes a lot of sense to me and is in line with my observation over the past several years. Personally, I do not focus on automated trading systems. Instead I feel that my time is better spent on working on myself and figuring out what works for me as a trader.
  • #617
  • Aug 16, 2020 10:24am Aug 16, 2020 10:24am
As someone who has been trading for about 7 years now I completely agree - there is no holy grail. However if you start to think more analytically and do your homework and place trades that have good odds with good risk to reward you can find that trading is a very worthwhile venture.
instagram: stepbystepforex
  • #618
  • Aug 16, 2020 12:30pm Aug 16, 2020 12:30pm
Very much true mate. Much depends on the person, how he or she trades.

Stay safe, trade safe.

KP

Quoting rafael5643
As someone who has been trading for about 7 years now I completely agree - there is no holy grail. However if you start to think more analytically and do your homework and place trades that have good odds with good risk to reward you can find that trading is a very worthwhile venture.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #619
  • Aug 16, 2020 1:26pm Aug 16, 2020 1:26pm
Quoting KeenPips
Very much true mate. Much depends on the person, how he or she trades. Stay safe, trade safe. KP {quote}
Thanks, KeenPips and rafael5643. I agree. Green pips and stay safe.
  • #620
  • Edited 1:58pm Aug 16, 2020 1:48pm | Edited 1:58pm
Thank you. Keep sharing your knowledge, ideas and experience on the relevant FF threads. That will help you grow through feedback and learning to better analyse and understand the markets. But don't feel offended if any member is not appreciative; of course, some members will appreciate valuable contributions.

Stay safe, trade safe.

KP

Quoting Smmtrader
{quote} Thanks, KeenPips and rafael5643. I agree. Green pips and stay safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
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