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The Swamp

  • #73,561
  • Aug 14, 2020 4:27am Aug 14, 2020 4:27am
EJ broke yesterdays low....
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #73,562
  • Aug 14, 2020 5:02am Aug 14, 2020 5:02am
this feels like such a bear trap. But I was stopped out. So no trade for me. I need to see where this bugger goes first.
  • #73,563
  • Aug 14, 2020 6:15am Aug 14, 2020 6:15am
Quoting thelws
this feels like such a bear trap. But I was stopped out. So no trade for me. I need to see where this bugger goes first.
I see the opposite - I see a bull trap building with a push over 1.1825 followed by...EU finally falling off a cliff edge.

Opposing views is what makes a market move, so either way there is opportunity for us all to capitalise on

Currently positioned short (trade levels on chart) and have been clipping in and out of shorts for some time building a bigger position/long term short trade
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  • #73,564
  • Aug 14, 2020 6:15am Aug 14, 2020 6:15am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} under 1794 is a big pile of support 1760/94. The week is why, i think pa is here. for the week close. That last h closed bearish and I think 178x will be tested. pa may sit/range in this area for tomorrow's close. Once the week candle is closed. We will see. I still dont see any evidence of pa being bearish. In fact, 1736 is now protecting 1714 for some support. Break and close below 1714 (drop) or rise and close 1777+ (rise).
The week candle 8 may want -1784.. day support minor between 1736 and 1783. medium 1736, heavy 1714. Pa wont drop w/o 1736 and 1714 day closed below. A week close below 1784 may retest 1736 or 1714. If the following Friday close is back above this new unknown level it may be bullish again. this process may repeat many times concerning 1775 near the month close.

4h 1801 is acting like 1714 did. Its not closing below 1801 yet. 1780 was tested once.. but unable to hold the 4h below 1801.

atm the month, week, day are bullish. But the week close may require a -1784 close. a -1775 close is a to a degree less bullish. The same with -1736 and 1714. As things stand, I'm on the bull wagon. But waiting for the week to end.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,565
  • Aug 14, 2020 6:23am Aug 14, 2020 6:23am
Quoting FXSerenity
{quote} I see the opposite - I see a bull trap building with a push over 1.1825 followed by...EU finally falling off a cliff edge. Opposing views is what makes a market move, so either way there is opportunity for us all to capitalise on Currently positioned short (trade levels on chart) and have been clipping in and out of shorts for some time building a bigger position/long term short trade {image}
Your view is fair at the moment. Price is in the blender.
But if it starts to go above 1820, then you better run.
Similarly if it starts to go below 1780, I'll start to run.
  • #73,566
  • Aug 14, 2020 6:32am Aug 14, 2020 6:32am
bull trap or bear trap. One has to let the pa direct. After the close. Bulls and bears can beat their chest later. Because next week we can do this all over. Then do it all again for the next week and months end and 1775. Eventually someone can claim they were right. But in the volatility lost a big chunk of their account. Maybe both will be right depending on time. Don't spend treasure proving your right. Because you may soon be wrong. The beauty of volatility is, both can be right.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,567
  • Aug 14, 2020 6:33am Aug 14, 2020 6:33am
Quoting thelws
{quote} Your view is fair at the moment. Price is in the blender. But if it starts to go above 1820, then you better run. Similarly if it starts to go below 1780, I'll start to run.
Totally agree that price is in the blender - usually precedes a big move doesn't it?

From my end, if it does go over 1.1820 (would want to see it over 1.1825) I'll be adding to shorts around 1.1830+

I'm fully expecting that is will go up and over 1.1820..its kinda begging for it and if there is a stop run to precede a big drop....1.1825+ is exactly where a lot of stops are placed
  • #73,568
  • Aug 14, 2020 6:35am Aug 14, 2020 6:35am
Quoting gatorinla
bull trap or bear trap. One has to let the pa direct. After the close. Bulls and bears can beat their chest later. Because next week we can do this all over. Then do it all again for the next week and months end and 1775. Eventually someone can claim they were right. But in the volatility lost a big chunk of their account. Maybe both will be right depending on time. Don't spend treasure proving your right. Because you may soon be wrong. The beauty of volatility is, both can be right.
No chest beating here - I'm way past that BS..just expressing a view on how I see market structure right now..Some will agree, some will not. That's fine with me
  • #73,569
  • Aug 14, 2020 6:38am Aug 14, 2020 6:38am
Quoting thelws
{quote} Your view is fair at the moment. Price is in the blender. But if it starts to go above 1820, then you better run. Similarly if it starts to go below 1780, I'll start to run.
it could start above 1820 and run for sure. 8 candles are rare. and it requires a time and place. That place may be -1784. The time may be 3 pm est. I'm not saying short to it. It may be best to watch 3 pm est.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,570
  • Aug 14, 2020 8:21am Aug 14, 2020 8:21am
same R as yesterday.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,571
  • Aug 14, 2020 9:01am Aug 14, 2020 9:01am
i sold a little 1835, tp 1786.. just above 1784
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,572
  • Edited 9:36am Aug 14, 2020 9:20am | Edited 9:36am
Quoting gatorinla
i sold a little 1835, tp 1786.. just above 1784
with u
OUT with a few
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A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #73,573
  • Aug 14, 2020 9:20am Aug 14, 2020 9:20am
Quoting gatorinla
bull trap or bear trap. One has to let the pa direct. After the close. Bulls and bears can beat their chest later. Because next week we can do this all over. Then do it all again for the next week and months end and 1775. Eventually someone can claim they were right. But in the volatility lost a big chunk of their account. Maybe both will be right depending on time. Don't spend treasure proving your right. Because you may soon be wrong. The beauty of volatility is, both can be right.
lol! - reminds me of something Art Cashin (former UBS floor mngr at NYSE) offered on CNBC one day. He said: "the market moves in a way that makes the greatest number of people wrong" and I'd say you'd have to want to "spend treasure proving your right" to be trading today.

Just look at the last 6 4hr eu candles and compare to the last couple hundred! - shld make ya wonder what you're doing here... (tiny bodies going nowhere w/wicks all over the place)

PS: I don't watch CNBC any more!
  • #73,574
  • Aug 14, 2020 9:36am Aug 14, 2020 9:36am
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} lol! - reminds me of something Art Cashin (former UBS floor mngr at NYSE) offered on CNBC one day. He said: "the market moves in a way that makes the greatest number of people wrong" and I'd say you'd have to want to "spend treasure proving your right" to be trading today. Just look at the last 6 4hr eu candles and compare to the last couple hundred! - shld make ya wonder what you're doing here... (tiny bodies going nowhere w/wicks all over the place) PS: I don't watch CNBC any more!
in a range.. trade the range. you can be right about the eventual direction, and still lose money. But what was the price for being right? What might have been, if you traded whats in your face.

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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,575
  • Aug 14, 2020 9:44am Aug 14, 2020 9:44am
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} with u OUT with a few {image}
bullish is indisputable for me. I expect a rise after close. But at 3 pm est -1784 looks like the trade for me.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,576
  • Aug 14, 2020 9:46am Aug 14, 2020 9:46am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} bullish is indisputable for me. I expect a rise after close. But at 3 pm est -1784 looks like the trade for me.
I have a buy 1784 pending to place for close.. but the spread may be wide. I may have to raise some. the same with tp if near 3 pm est. the spread may not take me out.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,577
  • Aug 14, 2020 9:57am Aug 14, 2020 9:57am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} bullish is indisputable for me. I expect a rise after close. But at 3 pm est -1784 looks like the trade for me.
Maybe LC will be Higher
NY will bring it DOWN to give us that RED weekly candle
Next week UP again
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #73,578
  • Aug 14, 2020 10:07am Aug 14, 2020 10:07am
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} Maybe LC will be Higher NY will bring it DOWN to give us that RED weekly candle Next week UP again
My guess: it goes to the moon by noon (oh - that would be noon MDT (my time) ... 2pm EST)
  • #73,579
  • Aug 14, 2020 10:21am Aug 14, 2020 10:21am
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} My guess: it goes to the moon by noon (oh - that would be noon MDT (my time) ... 2pm EST)
I think there are an exceptional number of new traders in the market who have probably shorted the present upmove, and it's Friday ("fader's Friday"). Weak hand shorts jumping out ahead of the weekend should push eu up.
  • #73,580
  • Aug 14, 2020 10:36am Aug 14, 2020 10:36am
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} I think there are an exceptional number of new traders in the market who have probably shorted the present upmove, and it's Friday ("fader's Friday"). Weak hand shorts jumping out ahead of the weekend should push eu up.
only if they could move the market or provide liquidity
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