When there is no news

Recently there has been many debates around the strong USD against the weak US data, I don't mean to repeat that here.

Here is something funny from bloomberg.com

Last Thursday:
Dollar Declines Versus Yen, Euro as Data May Show U.S. Economy Is Slowing
"The dollar fell the most in more than two weeks against the euro and declined versus the yen on speculation data to be released next week will show the U.S. economy is entering a slowdown."

Today (Monday):
Dollar Rises on Speculation Fed to Reiterate Inflation Risk, Hold Rates
"The dollar gained the most in more than two weeks against the euro and strengthened versus the yen on speculation the Federal Reserve is more concerned about the risk posed by inflation than slower growth."

No data was released last Friday and today (Monday). Did the fundamentals change during the weekend? obviously No. Then why the price movements are so big? Now the USD is almost the same as last Thursday when USD depreciated significantly even before the weak Philadelphia Fed Index that day.

It's a typical exmaple of speculation among countless others in the FX spot market.

And today CAD retail sales number is better than expected, so what?

I won a bit here and there consistently the past few months in my mini account by reading momentum. Since I realized that I'm trading against you guys and the many professional traders in the funds. It's better to know what my opponents are thinking about - greedy or scared, that is something news and EA may not tell you. I do read news and data to confirm my belief, since the news tell us that the price moves for some "reasons".

We are in a globalized casino, let's have some fun. (hopefully) =P

Funny? Not so funny if I am losing, because I read the stuff they write! :surprised

At the casiono you at least get a drink! HEY, WHERE IS MY DRINK? My Broker could certainly pay me one, once in a while for the spreads they get from me.

Anyway, tiger. What tool do you use to measure momentum? Could you share, please? I'm looking for something to avoid times where markets start to get into that "dead" phase of......one pip up.....one pip down....one pip up......Ranging, and whipsawing my account into pieces...

Would a measurement of momentum help? What do you think?

Thanks for your observations.

Peter.

dont know if this answers anything, but macd divergence shows that upside momentum is waning like on the gbp for example not too say it cant go higher but its quite oversold, I would say we need some kind of retracement before the next wave up, also NFP week in my opinion is the hardest week to trade until friday comes until then the market is very choppy and undecided, a safer strat would be to stay out and only trade the news on friday go for the big move and avoid all this noise...