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Daily Trading Strategy [ADR + RSI = High Probability]

  • #361
  • Aug 13, 2020 8:12am Aug 13, 2020 8:12am
Quoting broncoviz
Hi everyone signal GBPNZD and GBPJPY(it seems to be valid for 5-15' and probably in the future 1h-4h
hi
draw 2 macd line on GN which one right for short entry
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #362
  • Aug 13, 2020 8:14am Aug 13, 2020 8:14am
Quoting meck1
Trades from the past 20 days using 1:1 risk reward ratio Wins Loses GbpUsd 15 3 EurUsd 14 3 UsdJpy 10 6 UsdChf 13 2 UsdCad 10 2 AudUsd 10 1 EurGbp 14 0 EurAud 8 5 EurChf 14 2 EurJpy 8 4 If we are risking 1 % per trade so that all trades are equal despite pips made we would make 116 - 28 = 88% profit in the past 20days Here I didn't add anything to the system, I just followed the rules and avoided trades at 10pm GMT+2 ( because of big spreads) and also no trades on NFP (because spikes will distort ADR readings). I'll backtest 10 more pairs tomorrow...
Thanks for the stats. I haven't been able to monitor the markets actively these days but the couple of trades i took with this system worked out well.
  • #363
  • Aug 13, 2020 9:22am Aug 13, 2020 9:22am
Entries today on;
• EurNzd
• EurJpy
• GJ
• GN

So far a snooze fest.
  • #364
  • Aug 13, 2020 9:23am Aug 13, 2020 9:23am
Quoting diamonddbw
Entries today on; • EurNzd • EurJpy • GJ • GN So far a snooze fest.
Stick to the rules
EJ und GJ haven't reached ADR=100% yet for today...
  • #365
  • Aug 13, 2020 10:18am Aug 13, 2020 10:18am
Quoting vPriVate
{quote} Stick to the rules EJ und GJ haven't reached ADR=100% yet for today...
+++++++++++++++++

Oh My Universe! How could I???

EJ within 4 pips
GJ within 3 pips

Guess I'll continue to Trade According to the "Basic" criteria. My Call. Thanks for your "Opinion".
  • #366
  • Aug 13, 2020 10:46am Aug 13, 2020 10:46am
Sorry, that's my first day with this strategy
Just wanted to compare your values with my mine to see if I did everything correct.
Take every entry point you are feeling comfortable with
EURCHF hit 100% too today.
  • #367
  • Aug 13, 2020 10:56am Aug 13, 2020 10:56am
hf market ej adr 94%
and gj just 98%
  • #368
  • Aug 13, 2020 12:56pm Aug 13, 2020 12:56pm
Gold? setup now?
  • #369
  • Edited 2:30pm Aug 13, 2020 1:53pm | Edited 2:30pm
I backtested 14 more pairs going 20 days back skipping today and Nfp
1:1
Win Lose

Gold 7 3
Nzdchf 12 2
GbpNzd 9 6
GbpAud 11 6
EurCad 7 5
EurNzd 9 4
ChfJpy 9 4
Audjpy 10 3
Audchf 12 3
AudCad 9 3
Audnzd 12 5
Gbpjpy 13 3
Cadjpy 7 5
GbpChf 10 3

If we risk 1 % per trade despite pips made, total % growth is
137 - 55 = 82%

This 82% + 88% from the last backtest gives us 170% gain from trading 24 pairs in 20 days.
We also have to factor in drawdown when trading that many pairs at the same time but considering every pair has more wins than loses the wins will buffer out the drawdown. The backtesting was time consuming and really annoying lol but I hope it helps someone out there. Some months are volatile than others so % gain will definitely vary but it does look promising and worth keeping an eye on. This doesn't mean go live yet, it was just a visual backtest and maybe a few trades would have been taken out by high spreads from switching to Asian session like I posted earlier, but the majority were pretty good and it's worth keeping an eye on.

Good luck Traders.
"Cut your loses short and let the winners Run"
  • #370
  • Aug 13, 2020 2:13pm Aug 13, 2020 2:13pm
Quoting meck1
I backtested 14 more pairs going 20 days back skipping today and Nfp 1:1 Win Lose Gold 7 3 Nzdchf 12 2 GbpNzd 9 6 GbpAud 11 6 EurCad 7 5 EurNzd 9 4 ChfJpy 9 4 Audjpy 10 3 Audchf 12 3 AudCad 9 3 Audnzd 12 5 Gbpjpy 13 3 Cadjpy 7 5 GbpChf 10 3 If we risk 1 % per trade despite pips made, total % growth is 137 - 55 = 82% This 82% + 88% from the last backtest gives us 170% gain from trading 24 pairs in 20 days. We also have to factor in drawdown when trading that many pairs at the same time but considering every pair has more wins than loses the wins...
Hi!

Thank you for stats!
May I ask, how you choosed the SL/TP?

SP
  • #371
  • Aug 13, 2020 2:24pm Aug 13, 2020 2:24pm
Quoting SuperPip
{quote} Hi! Thank you for stats! May I ask, how you choosed the SL/TP? SP
Stop was at the recent low/high .... And if it was less than 10 pips ild put the stop a 10-12pips just to give the trade wiggle room.

Tp is 1:1 with Sl
"Cut your loses short and let the winners Run"
  • #372
  • Aug 13, 2020 3:18pm Aug 13, 2020 3:18pm
Quoting meck1
I backtested 14 more pairs going 20 days back skipping today and Nfp 1:1 Win Lose Gold 7 3 Nzdchf 12 2 GbpNzd 9 6 GbpAud 11 6 EurCad 7 5 EurNzd 9 4 ChfJpy 9 4 Audjpy 10 3 Audchf 12 3 AudCad 9 3 Audnzd 12 5 Gbpjpy 13 3 Cadjpy 7 5 GbpChf 10 3 If we risk 1 % per trade despite pips made, total % growth is 137 - 55 = 82% This 82% + 88% from the last backtest gives us 170% gain from trading 24 pairs in 20 days. We also have to factor in drawdown when trading that many pairs at the same time but considering every pair has more wins than loses the wins...
meck1 - good job!
  • #373
  • Aug 13, 2020 4:51pm Aug 13, 2020 4:51pm
Quoting meck1
I backtested 14 more pairs going 20 days back skipping today and Nfp 1:1 Win Lose Gold 7 3 Nzdchf 12 2 GbpNzd 9 6 GbpAud 11 6 EurCad 7 5 EurNzd 9 4 ChfJpy 9 4 Audjpy 10 3 Audchf 12 3 AudCad 9 3 Audnzd 12 5 Gbpjpy 13 3 Cadjpy 7 5 GbpChf 10 3 If we risk 1 % per trade despite pips made, total % growth is 137 - 55 = 82% This 82% + 88% from the last backtest gives us 170% gain from trading 24 pairs in 20 days. We also have to factor in drawdown when trading that many pairs at the same time but considering every pair has more wins than loses the wins...
Fantastic , now guys we need only a dashboard that alert with more than 98% of adr
  • #374
  • Aug 13, 2020 5:59pm Aug 13, 2020 5:59pm
Quoting broncoviz
{quote} Fantastic , now guys we need only a dashboard that alert with more than 98% of adr
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post13095370
  • #375
  • Aug 13, 2020 10:47pm Aug 13, 2020 10:47pm
Please tell me what to do in this type of scenario?price is outside of adr high and macd is crossing recent low.can we trade if the price is out of adr??
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  • #376
  • Edited 11:53pm Aug 13, 2020 11:26pm | Edited 11:53pm
Quoting broncoviz
{quote} Hi, I love so much this system it seems really powerful. Thanks a lot for sharing.
Hello Broncoviz,

thanks for your message. Like I said previously I won’t post anything new unless I am quoted because my posts where not tolerated being called negative.


What is definitely wrong about the strategy shared is the 2 things ;


1) the negative (counter trend) excursion before to enter because of waiting on macd, it is like waiting the river in poker to unfold before to bet, nobody is gonna bet against you and your reward will be very small, the key is to anticipate.


2) 1:1 r:r ratio is totally absurd.

In the London close strategy, as you seem to be interested, the difference is by noticing a counter trend pullback within the last 1 or 2 hour before the London close once the ADR has been reached and entering on a Fibonacci level with a 5/15 minutes candlestick pattern as confirmation which allows a minimal stop before the London close because it is where much of day traders are gonna take their profits leading to a counter trend move with a potential high r:r ratio.


Certainly not a 1:1 ratio, let alone after the lagging macd confirmed it once a 30 pips movement !

Don’t forget that it is a counter trend when the ADR has been reached (ever heard of volatility BO ?) which means momentum is against you and many traders are actually looking to buy on a pullback, so 1:1 is absolutely absurd, lagging macd even more. Anticipating is the only way to trade, called speculation.


Glad this strategy was lucky till now but even a stupid RSI EA would have done well in summer where the market is very volatile due to low volume and risk on/off shifting continually because of corona and expectations of V recovery. If anyone was able to make money with macd and 1:1 r:r ratio was only out of luck, called fooled by randomness.

I am still surprised that no one has committed to paper trade this “system” for the last few years... Well, actually not that surprised, peoples think it’s that easy that is why I am called a troll, innit ?



Cheers,
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #377
  • Aug 14, 2020 1:31am Aug 14, 2020 1:31am
Quoting LDFX
{quote} Hello Broncoviz, thanks for your message. Like I said previously I won’t post anything new unless I am quoted because my posts where not tolerated being called negative. What is definitely wrong about the strategy shared is the 2 things ; 1) the negative (counter trend) excursion before to enter because of waiting on macd, it is like waiting the river in poker to unfold before to bet, nobody is gonna bet against you and your reward will be very small, the key is to anticipate. 2) 1:1 r:r ratio is totally absurd. In the London close strategy,...
Risk-reward really is important thats very true.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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You really need a system with high win rate for it to be profitable at 1:1. Feel free to do some backtest on the system and if you find a way to increase the reward-risk ratio it would actually be pretty good and beneficial to the system aswell. Your input is much welcome.
"Cut your loses short and let the winners Run"
  • #378
  • Aug 14, 2020 2:08am Aug 14, 2020 2:08am
Quoting meck1
{quote} Risk-reward really is important thats very true. {image} You really need a system with high win rate for it to be profitable at 1:1. Feel free to do some backtest on the system and if you find a way to increase the reward-risk ratio it would actually be pretty good and beneficial to the system aswell. Your input is much welcome.

Well this strategy has certainly not a hit rate of 40%, I will let you do the backtesting (on paper), my experience shared being called negative and trolling.

How can you be able to have even a 1:2 risk:reward ratio when only getting in once a 20/30% negative excursion has occurred once the ADR has been reached ? You probably have been lucky because of the high volatility caused by low volume during the summer and the corona risk on/off shift occurring daily.

Do the work M8 and you will realize that I was only telling the truth all along, unsexy of course...

Cheers,
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #379
  • Aug 14, 2020 2:10am Aug 14, 2020 2:10am
Quoting meck1
{quote} Risk-reward really is important thats very true. {image} You really need a system with high win rate for it to be profitable at 1:1. Feel free to do some backtest on the system and if you find a way to increase the reward-risk ratio it would actually be pretty good and beneficial to the system aswell. Your input is much welcome.
The youtuber said, close when NY end (whether it trigger or not). By this way the RRR may increased.
  • #380
  • Aug 14, 2020 2:21am Aug 14, 2020 2:21am
Quoting meck1
{quote} Risk-reward really is important thats very true. {image} You really need a system with high win rate for it to be profitable at 1:1. Feel free to do some backtest on the system and if you find a way to increase the reward-risk ratio it would actually be pretty good and beneficial to the system aswell. Your input is much welcome.

I already shared the way to increase tremendously the r:r ratio in many previous posts..., as well as better entries confirmation.

Thus by taking a 5/15 minutes candlestick pattern instead of macd/rsi and by a time entry (London close on pullback)
LDFX Trading Ltd
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