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The Swamp

  • #73,261
  • Aug 7, 2020 9:45am Aug 7, 2020 9:45am
Quoting euroboy2208
{quote} Good morning Gator..I had posted 12 hours ago for a weekly red candle on euro....finally it made it.. thx to Trump and price action
Did you Short this
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #73,262
  • Aug 7, 2020 9:54am Aug 7, 2020 9:54am
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,263
  • Aug 7, 2020 10:24am Aug 7, 2020 10:24am
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} Did you Short this
Yeah made my bread and butter 20-30 pips for the day.

What about you..hope you had great trading day..
  • #73,264
  • Aug 7, 2020 10:32am Aug 7, 2020 10:32am
lower lc week and day.. possible short next week 1834 ish.. Today a -1766 close is probably bearish. -1761 stronger day close. -1714 opens the floor day close. Boulders's -1757 helps.


after a day close below 1714
1706.9 4h-1h b/o bear
15 min -1695 stf out the way of bears.

Atm pa is in a day range within 1714 and 1915.
4h range 1757 and 1915.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,265
  • Aug 7, 2020 11:55am Aug 7, 2020 11:55am
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} In at 1756
Exited this at 85. Was a beautiful 30 pips!
  • #73,266
  • Aug 7, 2020 1:43pm Aug 7, 2020 1:43pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} below 1757 or above 1782 next 4h directs me. 1720/30 or 1834 coming. 1757/82 are being tested atm. Sometimes what looks good drops the baton. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYo5Jz47UsA
the 4h did close below 1772. The bear side of the 4h, 1757 is no longer whats needed. Now a day close below 1761. The unlikely -1714 is best for a day next week. It would be needed broken day close support. If not, it will repel. Pa may move late today..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,267
  • Aug 7, 2020 1:49pm Aug 7, 2020 1:49pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} good move I closed.. I would have been stopped for -10.. pa below 1772 and 82 is bearish to me 4 close. boulder's 1757 has run for 5-6 weeks.. losing 1766 week is probably not bullish. Rejection off the month 200 could be real
Just losing -1766 week closed should be bearish. The problem is the support after at 1761. Need the day below 1761 to test 1714. Then -1714 day close. etc.. on the 1/h-4h after.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,268
  • Aug 7, 2020 2:18pm Aug 7, 2020 2:18pm
Month, week, day are bullish. This is why a day close below 1714 is eventually needed (Its just a range now). It has to be followed next week, with this weeks candle engulfed. If so 1450 looks and eventually 134x.

If not engulfed, this weeks candle with long wicks is a WTF candle to me. Its prone to test the wick upper and lower.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,269
  • Aug 7, 2020 2:21pm Aug 7, 2020 2:21pm
Holding a buy on GU from 3039. I knew EU would find it difficult to close sub 1770. From where I sit, 1.19 can still be possible. Funny but true.
  • #73,270
  • Aug 7, 2020 2:28pm Aug 7, 2020 2:28pm
Quoting gatorinla
Month, week, day are bullish. This is why a day close below 1714 is eventually needed (Its just a range now). It has to be followed next week, with this weeks candle engulfed. If so 1450 looks and eventually 134x. If not engulfed, this weeks candle with long wicks is a WTF candle to me. Its prone to test the wick upper and lower. {image}
The week hasn't given up. The day still needs -1761 and later -1714 closed. This isn't over yet.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,271
  • Aug 7, 2020 3:04pm Aug 7, 2020 3:04pm
1.20 still flirting with “come and have a go...”

This said EU has risen exponentially for several weeks and may need to retrench to achieve the demand to take it up through this level.

That presents an opportunity for us to sell it lower to support levels and take profits whilst leaving our markers in play should the move continue.

My view is that demand has been tapped right back to 1.1680. I’m trading it short until then. Once there a war will ensue
  • #73,272
  • Edited 4:54pm Aug 7, 2020 4:40pm | Edited 4:54pm
The bulls haven't given up. Oanada 1783 wasn't enough. The beauty of this candle for next Friday is, its small bodied (this weeks tiny body candle). After a 1285 pip rise. A gap opening to the unlikely -1761, is possible. That goes to the back of the mind. If i does gap below or close a day -1761. 1730 14 1695 may be tested. A close below day 1761 and 1714 is day bearish. To continue next weeks close needs -1766 or even 1775. This would favor a drop. Month close would need -1502 for a harmi.

Boulders 4h through month is still bullish. Its critical to get these smaller closes below to drop. Shortly many may scream 1.000 and all that. Be smart about it. Respect the bulls, let the bears earn it. All we have atm is a 4h support with a high as R. Break the 4h and day support with close, before considering the week.

1757 may have been bull candy. Its been bull candy since June 23
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,273
  • Aug 7, 2020 5:05pm Aug 7, 2020 5:05pm
the 1h 1757 candle was engulfed late in the day. The closing candle closed above the 1h 200 ema. I tried to make a bear flag out of them, but it didnt seem correct. Bulls look to have this since, the close was above 1761. A unlikely gap down -1761. looks like the only thing to stop a bounce. 1834 may be next.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,274
  • Aug 7, 2020 11:48pm Aug 7, 2020 11:48pm
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} I got punished a little for not taking AN profits. On the flip side, I got to sell more AC at 9634 and stacked a load of EA longs
i closed my short too soon. Opened 7 position so i'm chickened out when it turns green...
  • #73,275
  • Edited 12:57am Aug 8, 2020 12:03am | Edited 12:57am
DAX Weekly finished with a Long legged Doji type candlestick. It is a common type candle in the DAX weekly charts. You can see where I've placed arrows under similar candles, it is consistently followed by at least short term rises.

But, in the second chart, a 4 H chart, there is an harami candle followed by a confirming bear candle, indicating a run down to follow.

Third chart, one hour, pennant has formed which is probably bullish.

Just putting them out here so everyone can see and maybe it helps you. I prefer the 4H Harami personally, but only because I got caught with my pants down, still holding long positions AU, EU, NU. The weekly chart makes a pretty compelling case to expect the DAX to rise by end of next week. I'm interested in anyone's comments or analysis of the charts. I like to keep a close eye on the DAX, since it sets the overall tone.
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  • #73,276
  • Edited 1:00am Aug 8, 2020 12:15am | Edited 1:00am
Quoting TuTang
{quote} i closed my short too soon. Opened 7 position so i'm chickened out when it turns green...

I closed my AC short too soon also (Canadian held it's ground well compared to AU), could have banked a lot of pips from it. Still, a "bird in the hand." I view it as never wrong if you profit. I broke one, or even a couple of my own rules yesterday. One is avoid trading or having open $US positions during NFP news. I've seen it happen b4, where the initial reaction is for MM to pump the market one direction then flip into high speed reverse the other direction, not allowing much time to react. Great way to take out stop losses and collect contracts for them. Bastards sucked me in, I even took another long just b4 they flipped. I didn't think those employment numbers were that impressive. Obviously US is still in troubled waters, a couple hundred thousand more than expected shaky jobs hasn't changed that, so I didn't think DAX would rise from that. But I think it was just the excuse they needed to pump a different direction for a while.
  • #73,277
  • Aug 8, 2020 3:18am Aug 8, 2020 3:18am
Quoting Blackopal
DAX Weekly finished with a Long legged Doji type candlestick. It is a common type candle in the DAX weekly charts. You can see where I've placed arrows under similar candles, it is consistently followed by at least short term rises. But, in the second chart, a 4 H chart, there is an harami candle followed by a confirming bear candle, indicating a run down to follow. Third chart, one hour, pennant has formed which is probably bullish. Just putting them out here so everyone can see and maybe it helps you. I prefer the 4H Harami personally, but only...
Dax look like a small retest of 93.00 then move up. I had an UJ long position before NFP but out when it turned back. But now it seems clear about the direction. Cot data now showing massive Eur and CHF short from MM. Very likely to break down next week.

My view from EU very clear.
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  • #73,278
  • Edited 2:26pm Aug 8, 2020 10:19am | Edited 2:26pm
Since 2012, everytime the Assets managers went net short, price reversed the trend

This time is different ? or not ?

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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #73,279
  • Aug 8, 2020 10:49am Aug 8, 2020 10:49am
Trump or Biden?





jo jorgensen
  • #73,280
  • Aug 8, 2020 10:53am Aug 8, 2020 10:53am
Another chart for the greedy dollar bears

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COT: The precious data ignored
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