HYCM Market Insights & Trading Tips

Market Mood XAGUSD 29.07.20
by Giles Coghlan, Chief Currency Analyst at HYCM

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

The market is likely to go into a tight trading range as we get closer to the FOMC meeting later tonight at 19:00 UK time.

The Federal Reserve is likely to reassure markets that it will be prepared to do whatever it takes to support the US economy, but the Fed is most likely to not make any significant changes tonight. However, if the Fed does make mention of either yield curve control or the possibility of negative interest rates then expect a fresh wave of dollar weakness.

If this situation occurs expect XAGUSD buyers on stop above the recent intraday trendline.

Time Horizon: Day trade outlook.
Trade Risks: If the Federal Reserve is less dovish than the market expected that could see some USD strength and invalidate this outlook.

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Dollar set for the worst month in a decade
by Giles Coghlan, Chief Currency Analyst at HYCM

According to Bloomberg data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the US dollar is now heading to register its weakest July since 2010. The CFTC shows that asset managers have added to net long positions on the yen, the Canadian dollar, and the euro. This is as investors exit the dollar and move into other currencies. These currency moves have further increased weakness in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index seeing it fall a large 3.4% this month alone. This is why the Bloomberg Dollar Index is on track for its worst July since 2010.

The reasons for dollar weakness

So, what are the underlying reasons for dollar weakness? There are a number of key reasons for dollar weakness:

1. The further deterioration in the relationship between the US and China.
2. The expanding COVID-19 case count in the US is showing that the US economy is likely to be slow coming out of lockdown.
3. The general uncertainties around a November presidential election are keeping the USD sold.
4. Increasing expectations that the Fed will need to cut policy rates further with the potential for yield curve control on the horizon.

What to expect from the Fed tonight?

The Fed is expected to signal more accommodation tonight. So, if there is any talk of yield curve control or negative interest rates expect that to add further weakness to the USD. However, that seems unlikely as the Fed will most likely just stay in a wait and see mode. The Dollar Index has broken through a key monthly trend line and a clean break opens the way up for more sellers. The key monthly support sits below in the 90.00 region which is a target for sellers.

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Market Mood GBPJPY 31.07.20
by Giles Coghlan, Chief Currency Analyst at HYCM



Weak GBP, Strong JPY

The JPY will find buyers if the second wave of COVID-19 keeps growing in pace. Global cases now top 17 million after five of the last seven days saw one-day jumps of greater than 250,000 infections.

For the GBP there has still been very little progress made in Brexit talks as both the EU and the UK steel their positions ahead of final negotiations in the Autumn. The official deadline for a deal to be arranged is by year-end, but the end of October is the functional deadline to allow enough time for any deal to be implemented. This means that negotiations should start again in September. With expectations poor about a resolution rallies higher in the GBP should find sellers.

With time running out to arrange a deal the GBPJPY should find sellers if it manages to make its way up to 138.00 and the descending weekly trend line.

We expect this trade to play out between now and the next 4-6 weeks.

Trade Risks:

1. If we see a slowdown in infection rates across the world and a second wave is averted this will invalidate this outlook.
2. If we get positive Brexit news this will invalidate this outlook.

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Does NZDJPY have an August downside bias?
by Giles Coghlan, Chief Currency Analyst at HYCM

Societe Generale recommended an NDJPY short this week. Their thinking for their trade was that August is usually good for the yen, Swiss franc, gold and volatility generally. According to Societe Generale, an NZDJPY short has been the best G10FX trade in August over the last twenty years.

So, are there any fundamental reasons for more NZDJPY downside ahead?

The case for NZD weakness

New Zealand’s business confidence index rose in July, but it could be reaching peak levels now. Also, RBNZ inflation expectations fell to 1.39% from 1.44% in June and the Q3 inflation expectations are due next week. If they disappoint and print near to the Q2 reading of 1.245 then the pressure is on the RBNZ to increase its bond-buying at the August meeting. This will pressure the NZD to the downside.

The case for JPY strength

Aside from the seasonal strength for yen, the broad dollar weakness has also been helping the yen recently. According to Bloomberg data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the US dollar is now heading to register its weakest July since 2010. The CFTC shows that asset managers have been adding to net long positions on the yen, the Canadian dollar, and the euro. This should help the yen gain value in August if it continues.

Finally, any fears of a second wave outbreak of COVID-19 across Europe is only going to add to the second wave woes of the rise in US cases.

Rising global cases would support the case for yen strength. The total number of global cases is now over 17 million and five of the last seven days have seen one-day jumps of greater than 250,000 infections.

Technicals and trade parameters

Societe Generale trade parameters were as follows. They had an entry at 69.84, a target at 64, and stops running above the double top at 72.00.

Monthly trend line rejection

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Weekly rejection of 72.00 and trendline


Daily chart with double top reversal pattern forming



What would invalidate this outlook?

 

1. A rapidly improving NZD domestic picture and above the anticipated rise in inflation.
2. A dramatic fall in global COVID-19 cases/ effective treatment for COVID-19.
3. A strong risk-on sentiment will also invalidate this outlook.

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FX Week Ahead 03.08.20
by Giles Coghlan, Chief Currency Analyst at HYCM

Gold was the stand outperform this week taking out its all-time highs and bursting through $1921 to the upside. The speed at which gold is heading towards the $2000 level has surprised many analysts, but the low-interest rates around the world and the increase in central banks’ QE programs have created a perfect environment for gold to shine. The question is will it reach for $2000 in August or will we see a pullback n price first? This month has also seen large multiyear gains in the euro and record losses in the US dollar.

Key events from the past week

 

1. Gold shines: Record all-time highs, July 28. Gold blasted through previous all-time highs this week. It was aided by broad dollar weakness on rising US COVID-19 cases and the delay in passing the stimulus bill as Republicans and Demo-crats try to reach a point of consensus on the $2 trillion Cares Act
2. EUR: Large gains for the EUR, July 29. The Euro is headed for the largest month of gains in around four years and the EURUSD pair has moved higher 4.8% this month which is the most since March 2016. This rise has been fuelled by the broad USD weakness as seen by the falling Dollar Index.
3. USD: Worst month in a decade for the USD. According to Bloomberg data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) the US dollar is now head-ing to register its weakest July since 2010. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has fallen a large 3.4% this month alone.

Key events for the coming week

 

1. USD: Non-Farm Payrolls, August 07. A weak NFP reading will add to growing concerns that the US economy is facing further headwinds from a second wave outbreak of COVID-19. A weak print here could prompt eager US stock sellers.
2. GBP: UK interest rate meeting, August 06. There is no interest rate change expected, but speculation is rising about the Bank of England using negative interest rates. If interest rates are cut to negative this week then expect heavy GBP selling on the surprise move.
3. COVID-19: Second wave fears to grow? This week saw the start of concerns about a ‘second wave’ outbreak in Europe. With concern over rising cases in Germany and Spain, the market will be very wary of a second wave which will bring European economies to a halt.

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Market Mood AUDUSD 03.08.20
by Giles Coghlan, Chief Currency Analyst at HYCM

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

The AUD should find sellers as Australia’s Victoria State declares a state of disaster with the state capital of Melbourne to be subject to tougher restrictions including a curfew from 8pm to 5am to at least September 13th. This should keep the risk-sensitive AUD sold during the session.

Risk sentiment should further weaken as White House Chief of Staff Meadows suggested there is still a long way to go in coronavirus relief negotiations and that he is not optimistic about reaching a long term deal.

With time running out to arrange a deal the AUDUSD should remain pressured during the European morning session.

We expect this trade to play out between now and the next 4-6 hours.

Trade Risks:

1. If we see progress made in reaching a US coronavirus relief package.
2. If we get positive treatment news for COVID-19 that will also invalidate this outlook.

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Bonds send out a distress signal
by Giles Coghlan, Chief Currency Analyst at HYCM

The steady fall in Bond yields is sending out a signal that all is not well in the world. The tail end of last week may have seen some excellent earnings from FANG stocks. Facebook, Apple, Amazon, and the Alphabet all exceed market expectations and that started afresh equity rally early Friday. However, the fall in Bond yields is sending out a warning signal saying, ‘Warning there may be trouble ahead!’. Remember that bond traders tend to take a more long-term macro view. So, when equities are rising but bond yields are falling that is a signal something is wrong. One market is out of step with the other.

History repeating itself?

At the start of the year, one of the big questions was which market is correct? Is the pessimism over falling bond yields correct or is it the optimism from rising equities? The answer was, ‘the falling bond yield market’. The general rule of thumb is to go with the bond yield market. This is because bond traders tend to have more of a longer-term global macro view. Now, of course, this doesn’t mean that a funny divergence can last for weeks and months. However, at the very least it is a warning sign. That warning sign is showing again on the chart below.



Yields are dropping

The 10Y Gilt yield (UK bond) hit a record low last week. The 10Y Bund (German bond) closed at its lowest level since mid-May on Thursday last week, while the 10 y UST (US bond) was down towards its lowest ever close last week too.



Why are they dropping?

It’s all to do with the second wave of COVID-19 being seen ahead. So, yes the equity market has been rallying on the central bank support. However, the bond market is saying that the next stage of the global economy is fraught with dangers and a ‘V’ shaped recovery is more of a vague hope than a present reality.

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Market Mood AUDUSD 04.08.20
by Giles Coghlan, Chief Currency Analyst at HYCM



The AUD should find support today after the RBA kept rates unchanged and maintained the 3yr yield target at 25bps as expected. The RBA had been seen as possibly surprising the market with a 10bps rate cut, but it resisted that move.

Risk sentiment has started the session positively after a string of positive data out of Europe and the US yesterday. The dollar Index fell back towards 93.50 yesterday as the stock gains spurred outflows from the USD.

Therefore, expect AUDUSD buyers from pullbacks.

We expect this trade to play out between now and the next 4-6 hours.

Trade Risks:

 

1. If we see sharp falls in the equity markets that will invalidate this outlook.
2. If we get negative news for COVID-19 that will also invalidate this outlook.

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What you need to know about trading in August
by Giles Coghlan, Chief Currency Analyst at HYCM

The start of August

The generally received wisdom is that summer is a quiet month for trading. Traders are on holiday and markets quieten down. That’s the expectation among many. However, the reality is that August can be one of the most volatile trading months of the year. According to Bloomberg’s Market’s Live blog, the Cboe volatility index has risen an average of+11% in August over the past 15 years. So, August is time of volatility. Given the unusual nature of 2020, this could be a very volatile year!

Why does volatility rise in August?

Well, volatility rises in August for the very same reason that you sometimes get large price swings on the Sunday open in FX markets. Liquidity drops, volatility rises. Liquidity is basically the presence of orders in the market: buy limits, sell limits, buy on stops and then traders placing market orders etc. The more participants, the more liquidity. However, at the Sunday open there are often less orders and so liquid is said to be ‘thin’. This lack of liquidity in the markets can result in large price jumps as the price moves into liquidity voids (areas without many orders in) and skids through.Take a look at the chart below to see the volatility increase for August.



Could this be gold’s catalyst to hit $2000?

One chart to watch carefully is the gold chart. Many analysts see a pullback for gold in the near term, but the break and close beyond the weekly resistance level last week signals at least another attempt at a run for higher prices. Whether it makes new highs this week remains to be seen. However, a move higher in gold could combine with the thin liquidity of August and have a race to $2300 on the cards sooner than anyone expected. This is one chart to be keeping a close eye on as the USD index has resumed its move lower this am.



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Market Mood XAUUSD 05.08.20
by Giles Coghlan, Chief Currency Analyst at HYCM



Falling US 10 year bond yields have weakened the dollar and that has pushed gold above $2000 for the first time ever. The picture for gold bulls remains firmly in place. Low interest rates, no fed rate hike projected for the next 2 years, mass money printed by Govt’s around the world, poor returns expected in equity markets, and the medium term weak US dollar perspective all fuels gold’s rise.

Therefore, expect gold buyers on pullbacks to the broken 4 hr trend line.

We expect this trade to play out between now and the next 1-2 days.

Trade Risks: If we see a sharp recovery in the US economy that will invalidate the bullish gold outlook.

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More gains for US tech?
by Giles Coghlan, Chief Currency Analyst at HYCM

A recent Bloomberg article suggested that the Nasdaq has another 10% gain ahead. The rationale of the piece was based around the following three points:

1. Firstly, yes the Nasdaq has gained 21%, but other assets have gained even more. Gold is up +30% on the year and iShares 20+ Treasury bond ETF are up +25%, so just because prices look stretched it doesn’t mean they can’t continue.
2. Secondly, the Russell 2000 index is generally a good indicator of US economic health and that has fallen around 10% for the year. So,this shows us that some equity investors are cautious of chasing higher prices for higher prices sake. The technologically driven Nasdaq has exceed all time highs on on expectations of rising earnings. After all tech stocks are outperforming during the lockdown induced by COVID-19.
3. Thirdly, the surge higher in ISM manufacturing data yesterday at 54.2 vs (53.6 expected) shows the US economy is on a recovery path. This is despite the rising COVID-19 cases. Further more US President Trump was quoted as saying there is ‘a big number coming out Friday on jobs’. So, there is optimism heading into this weekend. Finally, the expectations are that GDP will turn positive after the last quarter’s slump. According to Bloomberg’s market’s live blog analysts are expecting the NYSE FANG+ Index’s EPS to grow 45% in 3Q and 28% in 4Q. This is after a strong 78% jump in 2Q.

Nasdaq

The double top in the NASDAQ failed to materialise and price has since broken the pattern. This would open up the way for more upside as the pattern fails and investors bank on rising earnings for tech stocks.

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Market Mood XAGUSD 06.08.20
by Giles Coghlan, Chief Currency Analyst at HYCM

Listen to the latest market mood for the XAGUSD pair on Youtube.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Falling US 10 year bond yields have weakened the dollar and that has pushed silver higher alongside gold. The picture for silver bulls remains firmly in place with low interest rates, no fed rate hike projected for the next 2 years, mass money printed by Govt’s around the world, poor returns expected in equity markets, and the medium term weak US dollar perspective all fuels silver’s rise. The benefit of silver over gold is that silver still has a long way to go in order to reach new highs.
Therefore, expect silver buyers on pullbacks to the key weekly support level.

We expect this trade to play out between now and the next 1-2 weeks.

Trade Risks: If we see a sharp recovery in the US economy that will invalidate the bullish silver outlook.

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What can stop the gold bull run?
by Giles Coghlan, Chief Currency Analyst at HYCM

Cast your memory back to the strong run in precious metals from 2008 during the global financial crisis and you will be able to remember the strong run in gold prices. Back in 2008/09 there were an abundance of gold articles at the time and you couldn’t even take a trip without seeing one of those pop up shops trying to purchase spare/unwanted gold. It was a real gold fever. Well, with gold rising above recent highs we have returned to that fever pitch hunger for gold. However, what can stop it?

Gold demand is high and google shows it

The google searches for the phrase ‘buy gold’ are currently at unprecedented levels. Levels which were last seen in August 2011 a few weeks before the previous gold high at $1921. The huge number of stories with the phrase ‘gold price’ in are at the highest level since 2013 and the online retailer ‘Bullion Vault’ which sells vaulted allocated metal to retail clients has seen its strongest first seven months since opening in 2005. Furthermore, the strong demand for gold ETF’s now even exceeds Germany’s official reserves! Gold mania is here!

But what can stop the bull run?

Well, the 2008 bull’s run was ultimately stopped by the Fed being ready to taper its QE programme in 2013. In 2008 the fear was that QE would precipitate hyperinflation and gold is seen as the hedge against inflation. So, as long as real rates are perceived to be going down that can fuel gold and silver’s rally. However, the gold bubble burst when tapering was announced by the Fed. So, will we see the same reaction again? It is impossible to tell, but certainly worth bearing in mind going forward. Yes, there will be ebbs and flows in gold and silver’s move higher, but we are now in the mania stage and it is really meaningless to pick a top target at this stage. It will take an unforeseen/unexpected event to change the rally higher right now and many traders will be looking to buy on the dips.


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Market Mood DXY 07.08.20
by Giles Coghlan, Chief Currency Analyst at HYCM

Listen to the latest market mood for the DXY on Youtube.



The Dollar Index has many reasons for weakness medium term. It’s falling safe haven appeal, the fact that COVID-19 cases are high in the US, and the Fed is expected to add more easing all weakens the USD’s appeal. Furthermore, the US stimulus bill should be passed at some stage and that could be around a $1 trillion package that will further add to the USD’s weakness.

Therefore, we should expect USD sellers on pull backs in the Dollar Index on a higher timeframe.

We expect this trade to play out between now and the next 4-6 weeks.

Trade Risks: If we see a sharp return to risk off trading on a large second wave of COVID-19 that will invalidate this outlook.

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Making some sense of the GBP
by Giles Coghlan, Chief Currency Analyst at HYCM

The last month has been tricky trading the GBP.

There is no doubt about it, the GBP has been a tricky currency to trade over the last few weeks. The GBP has been moving higher and higher with seemingly little reason during July. With the Bank of England meeting yesterday the main message seems to be one of continued uncertainty. In the COVID-19 induced crisis there is lack of certainty on forward guidance and even the debate around negative interest rates is uncertain. There had been speculation about the Bank of England embracing interest rates, but the bank of England does not think negative interest rates are effective, but it did not want to rule them out either. Uncertainty is the name of the game for now. Or is there a different view?

Reasons for GBP’s strength

With no-deal Brexit risks elevated and the chances of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit accelerating all the time why would the GBP been moving higher? It seems hard to believe that it was just end of month flows. If that was the case why was the GBP strong for pretty much most of July?

Was Q2 as bad as it gets for the GBP?

A Bloomberg article suggested that some investors had taken the view that Q2 was the low point for the UK’s economy. If this was the case then yesterday’s vote to keep the bond purchase target unchanged at £745 bln shows that the BoE is happy with current bond levels. Also, with the BoE seeing inflation returning to 2% in two years and estimates for 1.75% next year the Bank of England will be able to keep rates as they are for now. The situation is uncertain for the UK, but some investors are saying the worst is behind us.

Is the GBP’s strength a weak USD story?

The other factor of course is that GBP strength has largely been fueled by broad dollar weakness. So remember that if we wee the DXY keep falling then GBPUSD upside looks set to continue save some very bad Brexit or economic news. With Brexit ahead and the furlough scheme coming to an end in October we could be in store for a busy autumn with the GBP. Technically price is at a key descending weekly trend line, so price action around here will be pivotal for the pair.


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FX Week Ahead 10.08.20
by Giles Coghlan, Chief Currency Analyst at HYCM

Gold made record highs this week as the $2000 figure was taken out for the first time. According to Bloomberg the number of stories with the phrase ‘gold price’ in are at their highest level since 2013. With real interest rates falling in the US and a very weak USD the stage is set for a potentially long bull run in gold and silver. However, any strong signs of an economic recovery and rising US interest rates would invalidate this outlook. The US Stimulus Bill is still not passed at the time of writing and this, alongside COVID-19 case count numbers, has kept the USD pressured all week helping major USD pairs higher.

Key events from the past week

1. Gold rockets higher: Takes out $2000, Aug 04. Gold shot through the $2000 level this week as US 10 year bond yields plummeted lower. It was further helped higher by continued dollar weakness on rising US COVID-19 cases and the delay in passing the US $2 trillion Cares Act stimulus bill.
2. AUD: RBA, Resilient in face of risk, Aug 04. The RBA was more optimistic than the market had been expecting this week as once again Governor Lowe did not seem concerned about the strong AUD. This allowed the AUD to rally higher out of the meeting and positive risk sentiment helped the AUDUSD higher.
3. GBP: UK interest rate meeting, Aug 06. In the COVID-19 induced crisis there is lack of certainty on forward guidance and even the debate around negative interest rates is uncertain. The Bank of England does not think negative interest rates are effective, but is not ruling them out either. Uncertainty abounds.

Key events for the coming week

1. NZD: RBNZ cash rate, Aug 12. The RBNZ are expected to stay on hold next week and keep the cash rate at 0.25%. OiS futures price in only a 5% chance of a rate cut next month. However, will the RBNZ issue a surprise
2. AUD: Employment rate, Aug 13. The RBA is expecting unemployment to remain elevated above 7% for the near term. However, any signs of severe employment stress (such as a reading of +8%) will potentially weaken the AUD which typically falls during the month of August.
3. COVID-19: Case count growing in Europe. This week saw continued concerns about a ‘second wave’ outbreak in Europe. If we see a fall in US cases, but a rise in European cases this has the potential to weaken the EURUSD.

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Market Mood Copper 10.08.20
by Giles Coghlan, Chief Currency Analyst at HYCM

Listen to the latest market mood for the Copper on Youtube.


Copper has seen a strong rise higher in the last few weeks over concerns that supply will be hit due to COVID-19 shutdowns in relation to mining operations. However, some of those supply concerns from Chile have now drawn back. Yet copper prices still have plenty of reasons to rally as the globe turns towards a wave of green projects. All of these green projects will involve plenty of copper wiring which will mean copper demand will be growing in the medium term. As a result, we can expect copper prices to increase over the medium term.

Expect copper buyers on the breakout of the descending trendline.

We expect this trade to play out between now and the next 4-6 weeks.

Trade Risks: If we see a sharp fall in risk appetite then the pullback in copper prices will be deeper.

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India and China’s markets show signs of recovery
by Giles Coghlan, Chief Currency Analyst at HYCM

Gold demand from India has now risen by about 25% y/y in July and that is almost double from June’s levels as lockdowns start to ease from the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, pent up demand could further materialise as the peak season comes. Gold tends to do very well seasonally.



China imports show signs of recovery

The rally in gold has been mainly driven by investment demand. Retail demand has fallen due to lockdown restrictions. It has been gold-backed ETFs which have jumped back to record highs. For example, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) which are the largest fund backed by physical gold in the world, has been the most popular gold ETF in the month of July attracting a whopping more than $3 billion in assets. These heavy bids have helped gold up more than 35% year to date and about 40% since bottoming out in March. So, news that China’s gold imports are starting to recover is welcome music to the gold bull’s ears.


Jewelry makes up about half of all global demand even though there have been some recent declines. So consumer demand picking up again is further good news for investors. Looking at seasonal demand for gold and you can see the strong seasonal demand for gold in August. Wedding season in India helps this along nicely.

So, getting into gold’s rally again if you have missed it or want to re-enter should now involve waiting for a clear signal on the higher timeframe. As tempting as the push higher might be a pullback will come and that is the thing to wait for now. Patience is the name of the game as there should be many chunks of this bull run to take out along the way. Just don’t get impatient. Patience will pay you here. Wait for the pullback.

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Market Mood XAUUSD 11.09.20
by Giles Coghlan, Chief Currency Analyst at HYCM

Listen to the latest market mood for the XAUUSD pair on Youtube.


Expect gold buyers as pulls back on the daily chart. Firstly, very low-interest rates globally and US rate hikes off the cards for the next two years weaken the USD which boosts gold. Secondly, huge amounts of money are being printed by central banks around the world via their QE programs. This all devalues currencies. Thirdly, gold taking out all-time highs is a significant technical break. Finally, the fact that real yields are very low and have been negative. This means that when you take yields (10 years) and minus the inflation the yields have been negative. This boosts gold’s appeal over cash.

We expect this trade to play out between now and the next 4-6 weeks.

Trade Risks: If we see a sudden return to a normal economy that will invalidate this outlook.

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Copper is set to gain in a green world
by Giles Coghlan, Chief Currency Analyst at HYCM

Copper stands to benefit in a world where there is an abundant need for clean green electricity. By necessity, there will be a need for connective wiring which should keep the reasons for ultimate copper gains well and truly alive beyond the near term drivers. Many companies are moving away from fossil fuels to renewable energies. These renewable energies rely heavily on copper in order to function and that should be great news for copper bulls moving forward.

The most recent gains in copper have been at least partly about supply concerns. Supply disruption issues in South America, which is home to the world’s two largest producers have supported the metal. Chile (the world’s largest producer) and Peru (the world’s second-largest producer) mean that any supply issues impacting South America impact the whole copper market.


Copper has recently been trading near the $6500 level and that is around 8% above its 2-year average level. This means that some of the strong support for copper has not just been on supply concerns, but also the anticipation of a green future needing wiring.


In terms of access to the upside expect to find buyers on a breakout on the monthly chart as outlined below. A clean break on the monthly chart and that opens the way for higher copper prices.


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