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What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex

  • #381
  • Aug 6, 2020 11:22am Aug 6, 2020 11:22am
In today's very rotational market I am watching the AUDUSD for a potential short trade and close back below the 50 level it is going to have to go higher first though otherwise the r:r will not make sense
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  • #382
  • Aug 6, 2020 11:32am Aug 6, 2020 11:32am
Ceeso,

I took as example the +/- 0.5% level on EURGBP:

Over the last 100 days :
- 13 touched and closed above the +0.5%
- 14 touched and closed below the +0.5%
- 11 touched and closed below the -0.5%
- 11 touched and closed above the +0.5%

This is 50/50 result, what mean that level ?
  • #383
  • Aug 6, 2020 11:46am Aug 6, 2020 11:46am
Quoting neosqualls
Ceeso, I took as example the +/- 0.5% level on EURGBP: Over the last 100 days : - 13 touched and closed above the +0.5% - 14 touched and closed below the +0.5% - 11 touched and closed below the -0.5% - 11 touched and closed above the +0.5% This is 50/50 result, what mean that level ?

Search above for the Excel Frequency Distribution Stats I have posted them twice
  • #384
  • Edited 12:04pm Aug 6, 2020 11:52am | Edited 12:04pm
Of the Nine pairs, I watch and trade you can see that only the AUDUSD is above the 50 level today. I posted early this morning at 9:30 am that today's market was offering me a ROTATIONAL SCALPING TYPE day.

On a day like this you can scalp the extremes of the rotational levels with a high degree of confidence. Assuming you safely place your stops outside the extremes, size your trades right and there is no big news release.

You are not going to make a lot of money on a day like today because your r:r is going to be 1:1 with a very wide stop like 30 pips but you are also not going to be stopped out 10x trading in randomness.

This GBPUSD example is sort of what I mean also notice the TIME of day trigger I have been talking about
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  • #385
  • Edited 12:09pm Aug 6, 2020 11:53am | Edited 12:09pm
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} Search above for the Excel Frequency Distribution Stats I have posted them twice
I already have. But if you could explain what is each column i am not familiar with such sheet ? Probabilities (open vs close Change in %) what does it mean?
  • #386
  • Aug 6, 2020 12:10pm Aug 6, 2020 12:10pm
This entire thread is going to be all about me sharing with you why I DO NOT trade a lot of the time and if I do trade it better have some statistical edge to it based on the objective reality of what the market is offering me on any given day.

I hope that makes sense.
  • #387
  • Aug 6, 2020 12:17pm Aug 6, 2020 12:17pm
Well yes, i see i have read such thread so many time lol =)
  • #388
  • Edited 6:01pm Aug 6, 2020 2:52pm | Edited 6:01pm
Quoting Viktory
{quote} Yes, I've read his book. Great indeed To be honest I was being sarcastic, because of how you wrote: "This is WHAT I LIKE TO CALL fooled by randomness". {quote} I frankly don't understand how could that be possible at all, if the size of the retail trading volume is actually less than 2% of the whole FX market.
It was CeeSo that wrote “This is what I like to call fooled by randomness”, not me .


Yes you are right, retail traders are the minority because of their low capital, that is why it becomes a problem only when shared on public forums with large audiences.

A retail trader can use 20/40 pips stops, even as low as 5, while a fund can not because of liquidity problems when placing huge orders, therefore they have waaaay bigger stops, split their orders, taking days or weeks to build up a position (aka as trendlines, S/R, etc...) and even though they hardly manage to pull a 20% average annual return. Again that is not a problem at all for a retail trader.


But that change once a strategy that is actually profitable hits the public forums and/or YouTube. If a trader that uses on average a 20pips stop loss and a 40 pips take profit has his profitable strategy made public on forexfactory for example and
that other traders are gonna follow it, depending the volume it will start to have slippage, thereby you will get worse price filling
on your entries, stops losses and take profits, therefore making less money, what would be the point then to make less money because of sharing your strategy for free ? Which not only did you share for free but it would also cost you money !


And that is the best case scenario, if eventually your strategy is really successful and has many followers it will just stop working, because you use small stops you can only get as much slippage before it’s not profitable anymore, let alone the easy target you and your followers will be for funds that seek liquidity, aka stop hunt. And If your strategy is 5/10 pips on average then a 500k money following you with only a leverage of 5 and your strategy is gone.

So anyone with a sane brain will never ever share his strategy on a forum, which one must have to develop the skill to be profitable. So if anyone does share it, either he is insane or a newbie, so with high probability his “strategy” is horse shit, or he is not and his strategy is shit horse because it’s not profitable so he is sharing it to get attention and/or to make it a commercial thread.

That is why there is no profitable strategy on any public forum, even not in any school for that matter, otherwise you could get your trading degree like a brain surgeon to “operate” the market for a 6 figures salary...

Cheers,
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #389
  • Aug 6, 2020 3:22pm Aug 6, 2020 3:22pm
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} I think you both are missing the point and usefulness of a statistical approach. I have tried to stress this a lot during this thread but will repeat it. These are not supported and resistance levels. These are just probability levels. In order to trade with the right size and stops, you must know the PROBABILITY of something happening or not happening. I think you guys are confused. I am not here to teach anyone how to enter a market. I am here to share how I stopped getting stopped out of trades in Randomness because many of...

Not at all, I have read your previous posts but you said and I quote “I know the exact probability of where these markets will close at 5 pm est today”

Which is indeed a very interesting challenge, nobody said it would be a support or resistance but knowing a highly probable daily close is very interesting at least, a game changer at best.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #390
  • Aug 6, 2020 3:24pm Aug 6, 2020 3:24pm
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} Let me tell you my theory why scalping does not work (at least for me). 1. The fluctuating spreads are almost eventually going to take back all the profits. 2. Think about who is in the Forex markets? BIG players and big players do not use precision entries and exits. If you are doing a 100 million dollar (no margin trade) for whatever reason. Do you really care if you get 1.2000 or 1.2020 ? 20 or 30 pips is nothing to a big institutional trade. So for those reasons I had terrible success scalping. My average trade is 20 to 30 pips with...

I couldn’t agree more, but then why taking the ftmo challenge and scalping for it ?
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #391
  • Aug 6, 2020 3:27pm Aug 6, 2020 3:27pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi pro-trading Just because you haven’t worked out how to scalp the tops and bottoms of a market doesn’t mean it isn’t profitable. At least post like CeeSo did by using the words “at least for me” For the record, trading tops and bottoms is trading exhaustion, highly profitable once a trader develops the “knowledge” Cheers Rick

Just because pro-Trading hasn’t worked out how to scalp the tops and bottoms of a market doesn’t make you profitable by just claiming it...
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #392
  • Aug 6, 2020 5:20pm Aug 6, 2020 5:20pm
Hi CeeSo and everyone,

This is my first participation in a thread. Thank you to give your time to explain the mathematical facts, I learned : the market spend 85% of its time in a range plus or minus .50% and about some other data provided. Your experience sharing + psychology + philosophy are priceless.

You have been successful in leading people to contribute in a relevant way. Keep going!

Let's talk about you patriot.

Do you born in Canada? Where do you live? What is your job at this moment or before trading? Did you really deposit $100,000 in a live account? Why did you open a new one? Do you have a family? What are you hobbies?

From my side, I live in Canada, I'm between 25-35, male, no girlfriend and no dog. My job is in security. Monday, I opened a $3000 trading account. 7 years ago I got a great performance over a period of 1 1/2 year, but almost lost in one month. I stopped. I was about to have a good income to live there easily. Emotions were the cause of my failure. I have a good health.

Good night.
Let the market decide
  • #393
  • Aug 6, 2020 6:13pm Aug 6, 2020 6:13pm
Quoting LDFX
That is why there is no profitable strategy on any public forum, even not in any school for that matter, otherwise you could get your trading degree like a brain surgeon to “operate” the market for a 6 figures salary... Cheers,
There are traders who made some money from the market for a while so they think their strategy is profitable. If a rules based mechanical strategy truly has positive edge the trader can turn a small figure to billions over time depending on the edge percentage. Imagine if someone possess such a profitable strategy will he share it on forum? For sure not.

That's why all those big d___ forum members are traders who do make some money for some time but their strategy are not rules based mechanical 100% certain with positive edge. If that's the case they will be busy making billions instead of posting on forum boasting how profitable they are. It's a shame such members come on forum posting with big ego. The fact is if the trader's strategy has this real edge that has such billion dollar potential he will never behave to point the finger at himself that's simple logic.
Know what you trade
  • #394
  • Aug 6, 2020 7:23pm Aug 6, 2020 7:23pm
Quoting LDFX
{quote} Just because pro-Trading hasn’t worked out how to scalp the tops and bottoms of a market doesn’t make you profitable by just claiming it...
Hi LDFX

We are still waiting for your live trading calls in the trading room.
Last night I placed 23 live calls on the thread with 100% success rate.

So the question needs to be asked whether you have enough confidence in your trading calls to put them out in front of other experienced traders?.

Tick Tick

Cheers Rick
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #395
  • Aug 6, 2020 9:09pm Aug 6, 2020 9:09pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi LDFX We are still waiting for your live trading calls in the trading room. Last night I placed 23 live calls on the thread with 100% success rate. So the question needs to be asked whether you have enough confidence in your trading calls to put them out in front of other experienced traders?. Tick Tick Cheers Rick
Sorry to interrupt but you must be the best trader who can make 23 live calls with 100% success rate.
I am willing to pay you to watch you make only 10 successful live calls with a profit factor of 2x against your risks/stoploss.
I will be thrilled to see your exquisite skill which is worth paying for.

Cheers
  • #396
  • Aug 6, 2020 9:28pm Aug 6, 2020 9:28pm
Quoting genghistar
{quote} Sorry to interrupt but you must be the best trader who can make 23 live calls with 100% success rate. I am willing to pay you to watch you make only 10 successful live calls with a profit factor of 2x against your risks/stoploss. I will be thrilled to see your exquisite skill which is worth paying for. Cheers
That can be arranged if you change your attitude and prepared to learn some new concepts. That means you will also have to try developing some new money management strategy’s that will test your believe’s about how the markets really work.
There would be a fee however, a case of Pepsi

But get in line because we all want to see first how LDFX handles the stress of live trading.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #397
  • Aug 6, 2020 9:36pm Aug 6, 2020 9:36pm
Quoting genghistar
{quote} Sorry to interrupt but you must be the best trader who can make 23 live calls with 100% success rate. I am willing to pay you to watch you make only 10 successful live calls with a profit factor of 2x against your risks/stoploss. I will be thrilled to see your exquisite skill which is worth paying for. Cheers
Hello u there? I am so excited to hear from you.
  • #398
  • Aug 6, 2020 9:42pm Aug 6, 2020 9:42pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} That can be arranged if you change your attitude and prepared to learn some new concepts. That means you will also have to try developing some new money management strategy’s that will test your believe’s about how the markets really work. There would be a fee however, a case of Pepsi But get in line because we all want to see first how LDFX handles the stress of live trading. Cheers
My attitude?? I was talking about your claim of 23 live calls with 100% success.
Can I be invited to make live calls and watch you too.

Cheers
  • #399
  • Aug 6, 2020 9:50pm Aug 6, 2020 9:50pm
Quoting genghistar
{quote} My attitude?? I was talking about your claim of 23 live calls with 100% success. Can I be invited to make live calls and watch you too. Cheers
Hi Genghistar

I am just one trader in a group of excellent traders.
Don’t focus on me, focus on the method we use to scalp the market for daily profits.
Follow my recent history for entry.
I am hoping I hear from LDFX during today’s London Session.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #400
  • Aug 6, 2020 9:55pm Aug 6, 2020 9:55pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Genghistar I am just one trader in a group of excellent traders. Don’t focus on me, focus on the method we use to scalp the market for daily profits. Follow my recent history for entry. I am hoping I hear from LDFX during today’s London Session. Cheers
I am not focusing on you but your bombastic claim of 100% 23 live calls.
I happen to be a excellent scalper too can I get to meet those *excellent* traders

Cheers
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