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What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex

  • #321
  • Aug 5, 2020 3:37am Aug 5, 2020 3:37am
Quoting FibFork
Aaded a Persentage meter at the top of the chart {image} {file}
Hi, thanks for creating the indicator.
With all due respect, could you make it compatible with MT5?

Thank you.
Trading is the hardest easy money You'll ever get.
  • #322
  • Aug 5, 2020 4:36am Aug 5, 2020 4:36am
Quoting KeenPips
What I learn from your post is that you need to learn what to learn. LOL. KP {quote}
you got nearly 6k posts here after 5 years joining and i have under 30 posts after 13 years joining this forum, maybe you've learn a lot by replying to posts and im just trading a lot. LOL
  • #323
  • Aug 5, 2020 5:31am Aug 5, 2020 5:31am
Quoting Merka
{quote} No They are just an extra % on top of current day open price
i am using ctrader...so if i plot it manualy from the open of the new day candle...my range will be 100% up and 100% down of ADR (from zero)???? and both sides i will label the .25, .5 etc is this right ???? the total of both sides is 2 ADR?? if this is wrong pls kindly explain how to draw it correctly manualy.

thank you
  • #324
  • Aug 5, 2020 5:55am Aug 5, 2020 5:55am
Quoting apies
{quote} you got nearly 6k posts here after 5 years joining and i have under 30 posts after 13 years joining this forum, maybe you've learn a lot by replying to posts and im just trading a lot. LOL
13 years as a member, 25 stunning posts.. thanks a lot,learned a lot from you.
on a postive roll...
  • #325
  • Aug 5, 2020 6:56am Aug 5, 2020 6:56am
If you trade a lot, you would have been taught, hopefully, a lot by the markets; which you could share on this or other relevant threads in FF. Nevertheless, you don't need to to trade a lot to succeed in this business. I trade about thrice a week, if I have the right setups, and spend less than three hours a week trading. In fact, there are weeks I don't trade at all. A simple maxim by one of the market wizards: less is more.

Stay safe, trade safe

KP

Quoting apies
{quote} you got nearly 6k posts here after 5 years joining and i have under 30 posts after 13 years joining this forum, maybe you've learn a lot by replying to posts and im just trading a lot. LOL
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #326
  • Aug 5, 2020 7:43am Aug 5, 2020 7:43am
Quoting vinforex7
{quote} Not really.... He is not telling you his approach... or his method of trading... He is just showing us some intresting levels and a well researched statistics... he is trying to show us the statistical edge, which we could use in our trades. Now.. it's upto you, how you want to skin the cat... from the middle, or from the bottom.. or from the top.

Thank you !!! for summing up this thread perfectly
  • #327
  • Aug 5, 2020 7:50am Aug 5, 2020 7:50am
AUDUSD testing the 1% level in a strong trend today notice how each of these levels was respected and reactions occurred.

It will take a big news release to turn around such a strong trend lets see what the 10:00 am US data does to this pair.

I want to stress these are not support and resistance levels but we know that less then 3% of the time this market will close above the 1% level. I am not shorting this market or anything stupid like that. Never stand in front of a freight train.

The way I would use the stats, in this case, would be to take profits if I was long earlier in the day and or trail my stops.
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  • #328
  • Aug 5, 2020 8:10am Aug 5, 2020 8:10am
Hi, I am curious to know what the probability is of price moving to .5% if it is already at .25%, and also what is the probability if getting to .75% if it is already at .5%. Are they the same as the probability if getting to .25% if it is at 0%?
  • #329
  • Edited 8:33am Aug 5, 2020 8:14am | Edited 8:33am
So knowing what I know about the probabilities waking up this morning and seeing all this USD weakness However almost all the USD pairs are already testing important statistical +.50 +.75 and even the +1 % levels I would probably take this USDJPY at 7:15 am est short with my stops in this location. I would have locked in profits before the NYSE opens with 2:1. BUT this is just me and some of you may manage your trades differently or even find it better to take a long trade on the euro pairs or the gbp pairs.



The EURUSD in my personal approach would have been not as good of a trade because it only offered me 1:1 on my money but still a very good trade none the less.


I repeat I am not going to teach you where and how to get into the markets I am only going to show you how to use the data in ways that are very probable to work.
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  • #330
  • Aug 5, 2020 8:53am Aug 5, 2020 8:53am
@CeeSo I agree with you 100%. I'm a fan of you and I'm looking forward to new posts.
Price Action
  • #331
  • Aug 5, 2020 8:54am Aug 5, 2020 8:54am
Earlier in this thread, I told you to watch "time of day" because it matters a lot. During the NYSE open and the London close is one of the most important times when big moves can happen with the trend or IF the market is rotational counter-trend. That being said we are already testing very big statistical levels on almost every USD pair (the JPY still has a little room to run) and we have a data release at 10:00 am est that might slow things down or even reserve these moves it could also speed things up on the JPY trend


Either way now is NOT the time to be opening any new trades !!!!

If you caught moves going INTO the big statistical numbers fantastic if not you sit on your hands and trust the data.
  • #332
  • Edited 10:11am Aug 5, 2020 9:54am | Edited 10:11am
So no real surprise here the AUDUSD is really struggling at the +1% level

We know with a 97% probability is will close below this 1% and it even has an 85% probability of closing below the +..5% level


I personally do not like to fade strong moves but occasionally I will. In this case the USD is a little too weak all across the board for me to buy it / Short The AUD but that is just me and my personal preference. I would have much preferred to take that long EURUS or the Short USDJPY I posted at 7:15 am est.


Here are the actual stats for the AUDUSd the last 12 month period
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  • #333
  • Aug 5, 2020 11:15am Aug 5, 2020 11:15am
Quoting CeeSo
So knowing what I know about the probabilities waking up this morning and seeing all this USD weakness However almost all the USD pairs are already testing important statistical +.50 +.75 and even the +1 % levels I would probably take this USDJPY at 7:15 am est short with my stops in this location. I would have locked in profits before the NYSE opens with 2:1. BUT this is just me and some of you may manage your trades differently or even find it better to take a long trade on the euro pairs or the gbp pairs. The EURUSD in my personal approach would...
Do you have the courage to show at least one trade in real time?
  • #334
  • Aug 5, 2020 11:44am Aug 5, 2020 11:44am
Quoting Sciurus
Hi, I am curious to know what the probability is of price moving to .5% if it is already at .25%, and also what is the probability if getting to .75% if it is already at .5%. Are they the same as the probability if getting to .25% if it is at 0%?
Interesting question, I can answer that for you - the answer is yes and no - ie yes they are the same if you started at 0 ie the same probabilities apply that it will reach .5 for instance, but the probability that it will reach .5 when starting from .25, (ie .25 already having been reached) so the effective probability of .5 being reached from .25 is different but can be worked out based on the historical lookback over what ever period.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #335
  • Aug 5, 2020 11:54am Aug 5, 2020 11:54am
Quoting Sciurus
Hi, I am curious to know what the probability is of price moving to .5% if it is already at .25%, and also what is the probability if getting to .75% if it is already at .5%. Are they the same as the probability if getting to .25% if it is at 0%?

Now people are asking excellent questions I posted that above in the AUDUSD data ^^^
  • #336
  • Edited 12:11pm Aug 5, 2020 12:00pm | Edited 12:11pm
Quoting Lest
{quote} Do you have the courage to show at least one trade in real time?
I do not respond to childish challenges however I have actually been trying to open a FTMO challenge and when I do that I will be posting some trading results in here. I want a separate clean account because my personal accounts also have swing trades (I use the larger weekly and monthly statistics).

Once I get that challenge open I will show some of my results for fun educational purposes.

I want to repeat this thread is not going to be another GURU thread !!!!

I am not your messiah or some trading guru trying to sell you on my ideas. I have said it 10x now DO NOT BELIEVE ANYONE in any forum. Test things out for yourself.

Remember I lost 300,000 trading forex and I still have not made it all back yet. I have 81,000 still in fx loss.
  • #337
  • Aug 5, 2020 12:09pm Aug 5, 2020 12:09pm
Let's get back to some important discussions.

We are all trading addicts have you admitted this to yourself yet?

I discussed the biggest problem we all face is Dopamine Addiction.

I wanted to share a really cool video of a poker professional who understands this problem. Trading and Poker are very closely related.

This video will help you understand what needs to be understood first before you even place a single trade!


Inserted Video
  • #338
  • Aug 5, 2020 12:20pm Aug 5, 2020 12:20pm
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} I do not respond to childish challenges however I have actually been trying to open a FTMO challenge and when I do that I will be posting some trading results in here. I want a separate clean account because my personal accounts also have swing trades (I use the larger weekly and monthly statistics). Once I get that challenge open I will show some of my results for fun educational purposes. I want to repeat this thread is not going to be another GURU thread !!!! I am not your messiah or some trading guru trying to sell you on my ideas. I...
I don't trust anyone, especially you. You can show historical results to children. Show one trade in real time. It can be DEMO 0.01L so you don't get hurt.
  • #339
  • Aug 5, 2020 1:23pm Aug 5, 2020 1:23pm
This forum is priceless. A guy comes on with apparently no agenda, nothing to sell and constantly reminding us that he is not showing us an entry/exit edge/system but willing to share the advances/discoveries he made/now understands that has enabled him to recover a -$300k loss to having a good chance of a total recovery and moving into profit. And what happens,? someone asks him to prove his losses (lol! - no really,!) and now another challenges him to show trades in realtime. Lol. Why he would want to carry on sharing his experience and advice is a mystery but I hope he does, and until proven otherwise - I take him at face value because he has said nothing to indicate otherwise.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #340
  • Aug 5, 2020 1:32pm Aug 5, 2020 1:32pm
Quoting Headland
This forum is priceless. A guy comes on with apparently no agenda, nothing to sell and constantly reminding us that he is not showing us an entry/exit edge/system but willing to share the advances/discoveries he made/now understands that has enabled him to recover a -$300k loss to having a good chance of a total recovery and moving into profit. And what happens,? someone asks him to prove his losses (lol! - no really,!) and now another challenges him to show trades in realtime. Lol. Why he would want to carry on sharing his experience and advice...
Hahahaa I know its crazy... he is on Ignore.... Meanwhile, just like clockwork, everything I have been saying is possible is happening right in front of their eyes.

In my personal experience, I was not willing to accept anything that was outside of my understanding. This is a Cognitive Bias at its finest.

Almost 90% of Traders I talk to have this distorted reality that they know everything. Yet their PnL statements clearly show the total opposite.

This was a big pill for me to swallow. I had to hit rock bottom before I said I know NOTHING and I am ready to relearn. The problem was I did not have anyone to relearn from that I trusted.

That is why I am telling you do not trust me! Just sit and watch for yourselves for a month or even two months. Then design your own trading plan based on your own skill set.
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