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What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex

  • #301
  • Aug 4, 2020 11:14am Aug 4, 2020 11:14am
It's a nice thread. What CeeSo is showing is really important. We need to work with statistics, probability, expectancy, not only gambling on some chart patterns.

It is possible to do the same work with any line in the sand in fact. I personnaly use pivot point and I compile my own stats. I found this picture some years ago, and this is what gave me the idea to do it. The stats showed here are near the actual reality.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Pivot-Point-Trading.png Size: 63 KB
You got to strike when the moment is right without thinking
  • #302
  • Aug 4, 2020 11:25am Aug 4, 2020 11:25am
Quoting driven18
{quote} You are doing a good thing, but I think you are in danger of stepping into a "preaching zone" Here is my last trade, just to show that there are other ways to trade...but I do have % zones now so lets see.... {image}

If you are making money and you are happy with your results God Bless You. I am not here to preach or convince anyone of anything. I am here to share a little bit of knowledge that may make all the difference in the world to a few struggling traders.

In my experience learning to trade was a lot of Ah Ha! moments that were all strung together over time. When I found the person that made all the difference for me all he did was organize all those Ah Ha! moments in a way that cleared up all the confusion by adding in a few very important pieces of the puzzle that were missing.

I still had to put the time in
  • #303
  • Aug 4, 2020 12:36pm Aug 4, 2020 12:36pm
Quoting kk100
{quote} You are funny dude, you first Iggy him, and now you beg on your knees front of him, so you could make money. {image}
i ignored him in the past because he called me scammer for no reason. You dont know the story so stfu because your are not smart
  • #304
  • Aug 4, 2020 1:33pm Aug 4, 2020 1:33pm
Quoting Vincelev
It's a nice thread. What CeeSo is showing is really important. We need to work with statistics, probability, expectancy, not only gambling on some chart patterns. It is possible to do the same work with any line in the sand in fact. I personnaly use pivot point and I compile my own stats. I found this picture some years ago, and this is what gave me the idea to do it. The stats showed here are near the actual reality. {image}
This doesn't tell you anything, where do you put your stop. What is the risk reward of these situations. The market can take your stop 50% of those 76% of times before you are proven right. I don't even care if it hits those levels 99% of the time. I care about what happens when it doesn't hit it. Cheers
When you see it, BET big.
  • #305
  • Edited 2:47pm Aug 4, 2020 2:11pm | Edited 2:47pm
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} This doesn't tell you anything, where do you put your stop. What is the risk reward of these situations. The market can take your stop 50% of those 76% of times before you are proven right. I don't even care if it hits those levels 99% of the time. I care about what happens when it doesn't hit it. Cheers
The OP has repeatedly stated that he's not here to teach you how to trade, and I think things like what happens when the target isn't hit, falls under the category of showing how to trade. The information presented here is thin and superficial, and your comments underscore that. The targets presented here, as well as ATR (which I use), are good pieces of information to have on your chart or in your head every day. What you do with this info, and how you trade with it, is up to you.
  • #306
  • Aug 4, 2020 2:49pm Aug 4, 2020 2:49pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} The OP has repeatedly stated that he's not here to teach you how to trade, and I think things like what happens when the target isn't hit, falls under the category of showing how to trade. The information presented here is thin and superficial, and your comments underscore that. The targets presented here, as well as ATR (which I use), are good pieces of information to have on your chart or in your head every day. What you do with this info, and how you trade with it, is up to you.
Information must be by definition valuable. Me drawing some random lines and telling you it will be hit 76% of the times, you call that information!
When you see it, BET big.
  • #307
  • Aug 4, 2020 2:56pm Aug 4, 2020 2:56pm
While we are there, the market hits a new high or new low 95% of the days. I m giving you information, lol. The market also hits new highs or low 95% of the times on random data.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #308
  • Aug 4, 2020 3:25pm Aug 4, 2020 3:25pm
Can't wait to read this!!! I hope he covers his systems too, and what finally clicked. Kudos on your success brother. LOVE stories like this. Just wish it didn't have such an ugly price tag on it. BUT.. to make almost half back in the year!!! Sweet!
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #309
  • Aug 4, 2020 3:45pm Aug 4, 2020 3:45pm
Quoting Rennaissance
While we are there, the market hits a new high or new low 95% of the days. I m giving you information, lol. The market also hits new highs or low 95% of the times on random data.

No one is asking you to stay and read on. I do not expect everyone to see what I am seeing because we are all at different stages of our evolving as traders.

I sure as hell would not have seen the value in these stats 3 years ago.

Like I said before trading is a lot of Ah Ha! moments and the teacher arrives when the student is ready.

In my case, these stats alone made a world of difference because they stopped me from trading in noise. The stats also taught me that real trends intraday are very rare so stop trying to hit home runs and start taking singles and doubles.

I know what this market is capable of and because I know it so much better now I can adapt to take only what it is willing to give me.

This stops you from projecting what YOU want from the market and makes you an OBJECTIVE and EDUCATED participant.
  • #310
  • Aug 4, 2020 3:48pm Aug 4, 2020 3:48pm
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} Information must be by definition valuable. Me drawing some random lines and telling you it will be hit 76% of the times, you call that information!
To be fair, I did say it was thin and superficial information. Let me also add incomplete. And I agree with you that the .5, .75, etc calculations are not very useful, without an explanation of why these levels exist or matter. But then again, you're getting what you paid for here on FF. Good trading.
  • #311
  • Aug 4, 2020 3:51pm Aug 4, 2020 3:51pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
Can't wait to read this!!! I hope he covers his systems too, and what finally clicked. Kudos on your success brother. LOVE stories like this. Just wish it didn't have such an ugly price tag on it. BUT.. to make almost half back in the year!!! Sweet!
I won't share what I do too much because I really do not want that to be the focus of the real VALUE here. If I give a man a fish he eats for a day. If I teach you how to look at the ocean and build a boat I feed you for life.

Do the exercises I suggested so far in this thread by just watching the Time and Frequency Distribution Stats/levels for 3 weeks to a month and you won't need me to give you any system to enter the market.

Always just ask yourself if I was Long or Short at any random time of the day knowing the probabilities of the distribution where could I place a safe stop and target?
  • #312
  • Aug 4, 2020 3:59pm Aug 4, 2020 3:59pm
Everyone wants the Magic Bullet Easy Button. The trading world is filled with the same people that want to buy an exercise bike and expect that just because they buy the bike they will stop being fat.

Don't we all wish it worked like that


I have given some simple but very powerful advice to watch and observe for 30 days and it is only day 2 and already people are whining that they can't lose weight and the bike is garbage and won't work. LOL


The funny thing is that I never even promised it would work because I do not know where you are at in your own personal trading journey of understanding BUT you have nothing to lose and everything to gain or maybe nothing to gain I do not know but this was a big part of me turning my corner to profitability.

Kindest Regards to all the haters
  • #313
  • Aug 4, 2020 5:11pm Aug 4, 2020 5:11pm
Hello CeeSo,

Thanks for sharing your statistics, an excellent way to know the landscape we're about to trade.

I did a quick calculation and came up with following numbers.




Thanks Asw
Attached Image
  • #314
  • Aug 4, 2020 5:56pm Aug 4, 2020 5:56pm
Hi Ceeso,

You are absolutely correct that trying to hit home runs is very unlikely and therefore taking 10, 20 ,30 pips is a more realistic approach. I have a basic understanding
how the markets work, fractal nature. Market runs down - pauses and runs back up (simplified). I can see a massive benefit to put a mathematical approach to this in regards to the emotion etc. but i think markets are driven by large banks in order for them to fill there orders, Hence the reason why tram lines and support and resistance work some of the time. I am open minded as most of my trading is done by understanding opposite correlation pairs, i'm often told this is rubbish - but it works for me.
  • #315
  • Aug 4, 2020 6:11pm Aug 4, 2020 6:11pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} To be fair, I did say it was thin and superficial information. Let me also add incomplete. And I agree with you that the .5, .75, etc calculations are not very useful, without an explanation of why these levels exist or matter. But then again, you're getting what you paid for here on FF. Good trading.
It's useless information. I can have a 5 : 1 risk reward ratio and be right 80%+ of the times and that will still be random. The hit rate is not important without the risk to reward ratio.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #316
  • Aug 4, 2020 7:02pm Aug 4, 2020 7:02pm
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} It's useless information. I can have a 5 : 1 risk reward ratio and be right 80%+ of the times and that will still be random. The hit rate is not important without the risk to reward ratio.
I understand your point. But I believe you are in charge of risk:reward analysis. His observation -- or just use ATR -- gives you some targets and you enter a trade when you believe the r:r is in your favor. And yes the hit rate is meaningless if someone lacks the knowledge and skills to enter a profitable trade with an awareness of what's at risk.
  • #317
  • Aug 4, 2020 8:39pm Aug 4, 2020 8:39pm
@CeeSo

How is your market view of using percentages different from using bollinger bands or keltner channels? They also statistically tell you the chance of closing beyond certain levels. All I see is a mean reversion strategy here
  • #318
  • Aug 5, 2020 12:12am Aug 5, 2020 12:12am
anyone have @CeeSo indicator on tradingview?
  • #319
  • Aug 5, 2020 2:28am Aug 5, 2020 2:28am
guys, those level that plotted on the current day 1% and -1% (max of range) is that the high and low of the previous day??? thanks
  • #320
  • Aug 5, 2020 2:44am Aug 5, 2020 2:44am
Quoting jong65
guys, those level that plotted on the current day 1% and -1% (max of range) is that the high and low of the previous day??? thanks
No
They are just an extra % on top of current day open price
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