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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #6,461
  • Aug 2, 2020 11:21am Aug 2, 2020 11:21am
I’ll do if he is ok
  • #6,462
  • Aug 3, 2020 3:01am Aug 3, 2020 3:01am
Quoting Elsaloon
I’ll do if he is ok
That would be good because I cannot with hospital visits and such.

Just got word from my daughter...Justin can go home though he is still pretty sick.
  • #6,463
  • Aug 3, 2020 4:31am Aug 3, 2020 4:31am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} That would be good because I cannot with hospital visits and such. Just got word from my daughter...Justin can go home though he is still pretty sick.
All my best toughts
Cheers
Chris
  • #6,464
  • Aug 3, 2020 5:28am Aug 3, 2020 5:28am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} That would be good because I cannot with hospital visits and such. Just got word from my daughter...Justin can go home though he is still pretty sick.
Wishing Justin and your family good health Alan.

Steve
  • #6,465
  • Aug 3, 2020 8:46pm Aug 3, 2020 8:46pm
Thanks for all your well wishes guys. We have had a good share of scary moments what with blood clots on the lungs and such. The good news is Justin is home with his young boys and although we all have to stay clear of him for the time being we remain optimistic he is coming good.
  • #6,466
  • Aug 4, 2020 2:30am Aug 4, 2020 2:30am
Ok guys, let me some time to create the telegram group
To join you’re suposed
- To know the Alan method
- To trade
- To no post comercials purposes
- To be frienly
- To talk only about tcvmaswings
Cheers
Chris
  • #6,467
  • Aug 4, 2020 2:59am Aug 4, 2020 2:59am
Quoting Nala66
Is this what we are talking about {image}
Hi Alan, This is https://telegram.org/
This is the chat room software. Similar to yahoo.
  • #6,468
  • Aug 4, 2020 5:29am Aug 4, 2020 5:29am
For your diary guys....
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  • #6,469
  • Aug 4, 2020 5:36am Aug 4, 2020 5:36am
Sorry that 5 min chart was wrong...The black line was my profit target not the price target.

This is what the chart should look like...
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  • #6,470
  • Aug 4, 2020 6:23am Aug 4, 2020 6:23am
And there we are price hit its target level... Cool Uh!
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  • #6,471
  • Aug 4, 2020 6:24am Aug 4, 2020 6:24am
A big thank you to Alan
  • #6,472
  • Aug 4, 2020 6:27am Aug 4, 2020 6:27am
Quoting Elsaloon
Ok guys, let me some time to create the telegram group To join you’re suposed - To know the Alan method - To trade - To no post comercials purposes - To be frienly - To talk only about tcvmaswings Cheers Chris

Hi Elasaloon.
I have sent you a PM thanks.
  • #6,473
  • Aug 4, 2020 6:31am Aug 4, 2020 6:31am
About the telegram
I’ ll do it quickly
I don’t know of I’m the best (it is the first time i do that) but i think it could be usefull
(see today)
Sory fir the delay but i have 2 jobs beside trading the cable
Chris
  • #6,474
  • Aug 4, 2020 6:33am Aug 4, 2020 6:33am
Quoting logic38
{quote} Hi Elasaloon. I have sent you a PM thanks.
Hello
As soon it is on line, i send you the link
Chris
  • #6,475
  • Aug 4, 2020 7:01am Aug 4, 2020 7:01am
Hi Alan

I bought GBP this morning, at FF open, price went up 40 pips before the price rolled over, I saw the bear divergence 5 min chart, but my Zoo point was the previous high only 5 more pips away, price never made it, i just sat there, did not hedge did not take profit, then watched as price came back and took my stops out.
I seem to do this far too often, how do i get the correct timing for entry, do you always use the two bar test even on the 5 min chart.
sorry if I have missed this in the thread somewhere.
  • #6,476
  • Aug 4, 2020 7:20am Aug 4, 2020 7:20am
Quoting logic38
Hi Alan I bought GBP this morning, at FF open, price went up 40 pips before the price rolled over, I saw the bear divergence 5 min chart, but my Zoo point was the previous high only 5 more pips away, price never made it, i just sat there, did not hedge did not take profit, then watched as price came back and took my stops out. I seem to do this far too often, how do i get the correct timing for entry, do you always use the two bar test even on the 5 min chart. sorry if I have missed this in the thread somewhere.
Logic
Very often, i’m stoped out at breakeven
I know it is not the rule but i take some profits before the reverse and before the goal
i earn less but i earn
what Alan says about this ?
  • #6,477
  • Aug 4, 2020 9:28pm Aug 4, 2020 9:28pm
I was done and dusted by the time this US session began but for your trading diary I has this for you.

A thing to note is once price hit the EMA target level it was a long time afterwards before the EMA itself hit the level and price made the next level.

This is why I close the trade at the EMA level rather than waiting for the price level.
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  • #6,478
  • Aug 4, 2020 10:00pm Aug 4, 2020 10:00pm
Quoting logic38
Hi Alan I bought GBP this morning, at FF open, price went up 40 pips before the price rolled over, I saw the bear divergence 5 min chart, but my Zoo point was the previous high only 5 more pips away, price never made it, i just sat there, did not hedge did not take profit, then watched as price came back and took my stops out. I seem to do this far too often, how do i get the correct timing for entry, do you always use the two bar test even on the 5 min chart. sorry if I have missed this in the thread somewhere.
When looking at the 1 hour chart and we observe a ZOO point then that is the time we get interested in the market. This is the time to look for an entry at the lower time frames and accept a risk!

On the chart above during this US session there was no div, our only indication was the so called oversold situations on the RSI's. We can measure the distance to the EMA level (about 90 pips in this case). We determine our profit target and can then make the appropriate calculations diving the profit target by the number of pips. This gives us the lot size to place, whether we do it via a single entry or a three stage process which is a little less risky. This will also then tell us what our risk is for say ten pips or so.

So we know our potential profit and risk so we can execute our trading plan.

In this case we did not have a div to look at but we can still apply a two bar test and it would have worked well for us, again in this case.

The trouble with trading is we cannot be too specific with our rules, our main objective is to limit our risk as much as possible. We can make up small losses much more easily than we can make up larger ones. If we lose $20 bucks just say Phew! that could have been $200 and you will feel better for it.

When you make a plan and execute it, if it woks out you will feel great and confidence starts to build in your trading but all the time you have to guard against becoming complacent and ignoring where your stop should have been. This is where I see most people go wrong they think they can swim against the market flow sometimes they make it but you can only drown once. Our aim is to go with the flow and make things easier for ourselves not to put ourselves at risk of drowning.
  • #6,479
  • Aug 4, 2020 10:18pm Aug 4, 2020 10:18pm
Quoting Elsaloon
{quote} Logic Very often, i’m stoped out at breakeven I know it is not the rule but i take some profits before the reverse and before the goal i earn less but i earn what Alan says about this ?
Taking profits is always a matter for individual choice. The point is to measure the distance and determine if your particular profit target distance can be achieved. For example in the above I said the target distance for price hitting the EMA swing high was 90 pips. So it is measured, yes!

Now if our personal money management plan call for 40 pips at a particular lot size we can determine this to be highly likely, yes!

So if we do this we have a good chance of making a 1:4 risk reward or we could make it 1:5, 6, 7, 8, or the full 9. Remembering the higher we go the likelihood decreases even though we have deemed it possible.

Look at the 1 hour chart above. Had we based our trade on this reaching the 2964 swing low level we would have ultimately lost out on getting the full 100% but if we just wanted a portion of it as I said 40 pips then we would have this no problem.

I can't be more specific than this because we all have different money management plans. Perhaps this is something we should be talking more about and I think it would be helpful to some to learn other peoples approaches to this most important topic.
  • #6,480
  • Aug 5, 2020 1:20am Aug 5, 2020 1:20am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} When looking at the 1 hour chart and we observe a ZOO point then that is the time we get interested in the market. This is the time to look for an entry at the lower time frames and accept a risk! On the chart above during this US session there was no div, our only indication was the so called oversold situations on the RSI's. We can measure the distance to the EMA level (about 90 pips in this case). We determine our profit target and can then make the appropriate calculations diving the profit target by the number of pips. This gives us...
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I am a silent follower of this great thread and strategy and i am not following cable anymore, but when i read Alan's vieuw on that chart i needed to react and maybe i see things completely wrong, i still want to share what i saw on that chart. When you say Alan that there is no divergence in the US session, i immediately saw that RSI/RSI bull divergence in the M5, giving you an entry considering the oversold H1 RSI. The divergence was retested (hook) and gave the posible second entry. The final third entry could have been after forming the bull support cause that level was still 47 pips away from target. And like you mention there were several two bar tests.
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