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Open positions based on close above / below a horizontal line 0 replies

95% of the time price will close above or below the open 7 replies

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Attachments: 95% of the time Price will close above or below the open price
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95% of the time Price will close above or below the open price

Quoting hanover
{quote} Agreed. For me, a key question is: if price is starting to move in a certain direction (up or down), whether it is more likely to continue moving in that direction, or reverse........
Quoting CrucialPoint
A Motivational Story Once a upon a time... Man was very inquisitive and very interested about predicting the weather. It was a very important issue in getting it right (mostly for agricultural reasons). Man used omens and divination to predict weather. Later on they found a more accurate way of predicting the season with the formations of the stars. Fast forward to the year 2010 and man have come very far and developed new ways and technologies in predicting the weather. Even with our current technology, with the super computers we have,...
How about that???
Quoting Jorg
{quote} {quote} How about that???
Yes, I am also interested to know more!
Here is great tool to help you get your daily weekly and monthly price lines

https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/25478#
Le$$ I$ More
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Not cutting losses and particularly adding to losing trades, bring you deeply into the “loss hemisphere” of trade management. These two practices are some of key reasons of loss of retail traders as a whole. They should be avoided like the plague. Cheers, k


I was on the reddit forum discussing my discretionary ability to cut losses on my scalp trade setup. One response was abusive. I think discretionary trading of any sort absolutely scares the shit out of many traders. I'm wondering of the new "math do" for trading (which is highly effective, btw) has drawn in people who would otherwise run away from trading.

For the time being I'm averaging about 1% a day on my forwardtesting and that is mostly because I cut my losses and cut and cut and cut often taking advantage of a reverse swing on losing trades.

I'm just not real sure why most traders don't get how important it is to cut losses. It's what I was taught. Are they creating a trade setup and then running away from the computer and allowing the stop to fully hit (when it can be managed) because they're too skeered?

Just venting. I can't seem to talk to anyone about my own trading because they get scared, defensive and often abusive. Perplexing.
How many % of times price will close within 1 standard deviation of its mean on a rolling timeframe ?
The truth is hidden from you
Quoting MaxenshteinD
How many % of times price will close within 1 standard deviation of its mean on a rolling timeframe ?
Depends on the data pool used to average a mean, does it not? On a rolling timeframe, would it not be a subjective choice to choose a lookback period to calculate said mean?

If anything, I'm interested in your posed question!
Quoting MaxenshteinD
How many % of times price will close within 1 standard deviation of its mean on a rolling timeframe ?
Try looking at this guys stuff .you will have to follow the trail
From Gramps' Z Score Kit
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...66#post4979366
Price action money management and the weekly open/close level analysis does it for me
Great strategy on weekly candle if well apply with one other indicator.
Thanks and God bless you .
Quoting strbac
{quote} How about this way: {image} What do you think?
momentum is needed otherwise this approach will generate more losses than profits.
let's assume the reference line is 1.1070. we buy at 1.1071 and sell at 1.1069.
price reach 1.1071 and we buy. we are long with -1 pip (we have no commission but a spread of 1 pip).
price has to go up 1.1075 to have +3 pip profit. this is our first target with this position.
but price swings just a bit up not reaching our target and swings down below the entry to 1.1069.
we kill our buy with -3 pip. and sell at 1.1069. we are now short with -1 pip.
price has to go down to 1.1065 for +3 pip profit. but price swings just a bit down not reaching our target.
instead price goes up to 1.1071 and the story repeats.
we will collect several losses with -3 pip the whole time until momentum is driving the price in one direction.
and we hope the momentum is strong enough to get break even with the former losses.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Think about the opening price, mark these line on your daily, weekly or monthly charts and take note what happens as price realizes its true direction.
There needs to be an ending to this because the first thing usually asked " is there an indicator for this" meaning I cant possibly think for myself.
It is true, and very true, that the opening price holds the key to a long well kept secret that is needed to balance the rags from the riches and the fact is that to become rich would take some form of intelligence that most will lack to achieve.
I would like to see others gain the knowledge of the open price secret but I don't want to see the whole issue of it blown away and the concept of trading totally ruined as this is the reason for the secret.
You are the answer and if you look hard and long enough the secret will also rest with you.
I love the daily charts
Quoting peterhenders
Think about the opening price, mark these line on your daily, weekly or monthly charts and take note what happens as price realizes its true direction. There needs to be an ending to this because the first thing usually asked " is there an indicator for this" meaning I cant possibly think for myself. It is true, and very true, that the opening price holds the key to a long well kept secret that is needed to balance the rags from the riches and the fact is that to become rich would take some form of intelligence that most will lack to achieve. I...
Wise-Jedi, I received your message but cannot get back to you. Try Skype ( Liveeterhenderson-2 )
Quoting peterhenders
Think about the opening price, mark these line on your daily, weekly or monthly charts and take note what happens as price realizes its true direction. There needs to be an ending to this because the first thing usually asked " is there an indicator for this" meaning I cant possibly think for myself. It is true, and very true, that the opening price holds the key to a long well kept secret that is needed to balance the rags from the riches and the fact is that to become rich would take some form of intelligence that most will lack to achieve. I...

Not sure about some of what Ole Crucial Point Point posted as at times it could be crypted, but after reading every post I could fine that he shared at the Factory I discovered something very interesting that works. Not going to share it, but it comes from bits & pieces of what Crucial Point shared. Read his post enough & ye shall find something too. I think he shared several helpful hints in his post, but tired of the many naysayers he encountered along the way.

Crucial Point if your out there..... THANK YOU MY FRIEND.
Quoting acetrader
{quote} Not sure about some of what Ole Crucial Point Point posted as at times it could be crypted, but after reading every post I could fine that he shared at the Factory I discovered something very interesting that works. Not going to share it, but it comes from bits & pieces of what Crucial Point shared. Read his post enough & ye shall find something too. I think he shared several helpful hints in his post, but tired of the many naysayers he encountered along the way. Crucial Point if your out there..... THANK YOU MY FRIEND. ...
All the best mate
I think the sentiment here is brilliant, if not common sense imo. As wonderful as it would be to apply this principle to trading, this ends up becoming a glorified coin flip upon the open of the next daily candle (which as we know at 5:00 PM EST is basically untradeable due to spreads lol). Maybe someone could find a way to make this work, who knows.
Quoting Nickpadovani
I think the sentiment here is brilliant, if not common sense imo. As wonderful as it would be to apply this principle to trading, this ends up becoming a glorified coin flip upon the open of the next daily candle (which as we know at 5:00 PM EST is basically untradeable due to spreads lol). Maybe someone could find a way to make this work, who knows.

Hi Nick,
Your statement could be highly possible, so I want argue the point, but Crucial Point did share some very worthwhile bits of information. To find these bits (nuggets) one must read & reread every post on this forum by him. Some say Ole Crucial Point what nuts & full of himself, but I think that is a bit harsh of those that gave him those labels. So finds his post & read them & reread them. I see your new on this forum, but not sure if your a new trader. If your a new trader & haven't had time to get caught up in all the BS that litters trading forums you just might find something in Crucial Points post that you can use. Focus on the candle thats the .

After reading his post & should you be unable to find something you can use to better your trading I want to refer you to two threads that would be well worth your attention if your a new trader or not. #1. Analysis & Trading Based on Envelopes, Waves & Cycles by Parisboy. #2. Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade by TooSlow.
These are two I find very interesting & DO NOT require numerous indicators. Parisboy & TooSlow are good traders always willing to help those willing to put in the time & effort to learn. Trading doesn't have to be a roll of the . Put the odd is your favor.

I hope this helps you & I wish you the best of trades.
Quoting acetrader
{quote} Hi Nick, Your statement could be highly possible, so I want argue the point, but Crucial Point did share some very worthwhile bits of information. To find these bits (nuggets) one must read & reread every post on this forum by him. Some say Ole Crucial Point what nuts & full of himself, but I think that is a bit harsh of those that gave him those labels. So finds his post & read them & reread them. I see your new on this forum, but not sure if your a new trader. If your a new trader & haven't had time to get caught up in all the BS that...

Hey Ace, just new to the forums, pretty experienced at trading though! I do enjoy observing other's perspectives though and learning. I'll be sure to read through the posts.
that's good but what happened if it hit the order and start to go the other side?

Even with a trailing stop of 3 pips that hapenned according to backtesting
I finished reading the 8 page and for those who says this is stupid just let me tell you I am making a good profit with this strategy so its not stupid. I am new to this forum and I have been trading like that before joining here.

What I am doing right now is having a tight SL. and for the profit trailing stop. If I can find a way to deal with the losing trade then that would be fantastic. The number of time it hit the price and start to reverse is maybe 3 to 5 time a year.

any suggestion will be appreciated.
Crucial Point said something to the effect, “It happens every day, on every timeframe, on virtually every market. Yet you don’t even see it”. He was referring to what is easily seen in the image below (and found on any chart!)….if you know what you are looking for.

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Not sure what is so important in the above image? This is what’s so important.

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Now that you know what to look for, what to do with your new found vision?

The next chart is food for thought; where to place buy/sell and stop orders.

When bar 2 moves above the high of bar 1, buy. Stops below bar 1.
When bar 3 moves above the high of bar 2, buy. Stops below bar 2; move stop 1 below bar 2.
When bar 4 moves above the high of bar 3, buy. Stops below bar 3; move stop 1 and 2 below bar 3.
*do the reverse for shorts

The buy trigger and the exit trigger will be the challenge, ie knowing when this pattern is most probable and where to exit.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Tips:
* use the markets ADR to determine buffers above/below price bars; ie. ADR 60 requires a smaller buffer than ADR 120
* H1 is my preferred timeframe
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