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Your and My Lessons Learned Losing and Gaining in Trading 5 replies

things you learned from forex and improved your life 12 replies

The most important lesson’s I’ve learned trading Forex, so far... 15 replies

Attachments: What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex
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What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex

Quoting LDFX
{quote} Yet you still have no track record to show ?! Would be much easier to attract customers.
Hi LDFX

We must stop meeting like this because my wife thinks I am having an affair as I am secreting typing on the phone too you far too much.

Customers?, if you can find any trader on Forex Factory that has ever paid me one cent for any advice, I will send you $1,000 US dollars.
i told you where to look and please stop comment to me on this thread or I may get divorced.

Now relax, it’s the weekend

Regards Rick
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi LDFX We must stop meeting like this because my wife thinks I am having an affair as I am secreting typing on the phone too you far too much. Customers?, if you can find any trader on Forex Factory that has ever paid me one cent for any advice, I will send you $1,000 US dollars. i told you where to look and please stop comment to me on this thread or I may get divorced. Now relax, it’s the weekend Regards Rick
Give your wife money !
As long as she spends your money, you will be forgiven !
too much noise here...
I know that you and I know nothing...and don't think!
Hi RickM, i have also been on the Hotcopper forum, can you please send me a DM? Cheers
Quoting birdland
too much noise here...
You're right. This is the first thread that I must have seen where the OP has posted 4 times over 162 posts and 9 pages. Ok, forums are made for discussion but here the thread has been totally commandeered. If only people could wait for CeeSo's ideas to be completely disclosed, without going down to personal arguments, that would be nice.
Market is not so random as you told. Many trader bring this point, because they to lazy to look more deeper. Sometimes they can not read the chart the way it needs. So it must be random?
Loosing that much money, show me you have huge capital? Or you all invest into forex?
Market is more simple as you think.
Quoting BWilliam
Perhaps FF host a trading competition for these serial winners, who's got the biggest d___
Maybe a simple challenge will do the trick - the FTMO Challenge and FTMO Verification, best if can be a FTMO trader.

Talk less and take up this challenge.
Quoting Rennaissance
Thats the problem with young traders. I belonged to that category some time ago. The endless pursuit of the holy grail. The edges are not as big as you might believe. That is exactly why real charts and randomly generated charts look alike. The edges are on the border of randomness.



Exactly, This is the biggest problem I find with new traders (myself included when I was losing money). The reality is that all the Trading Gurus want you to believe that you can make hundreds of pips from a beach in Fiji.

This is what I like to call FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS.

Many new traders get fooled by short term small sample size results. Just because something works for a year or 2 years even does not mean it will continue to work. FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS!.

The fact is if the markets only move plus or minus .5% daily then we have to accept when the volatility rises or falls our process and our Money Management must adapt to that over a very large sample size of thousands of trades even 20 years worth of data.

So the next important thing I had to learn.

Rule Number 5. Your money management must be based on VOLATILITY and it must change when Volatility Changes!!!

The way I do this now is that I will always know what levels are important tomorrow.

Forget Pivots, Fibs, and all the other levels you think are important.

The first step I do each day is mark off the .25% .50% .75% and 1% levels. The data proves that we will stay within .5% ranges with an 85% probability. So now you can base some of your trading decisions and risk parameters within these boundaries.

All your money management should be based on these levels and the probability of them holding!!!

This was the Golden Goose for me it really changed my risk control.


Quoting nim1984
{quote} It was an example, box size doesn’t matter. Renko charts show great trends but are deceptive. The signal to enter/exit does not necessarily come after a single completed bar, could take multiple completed bars.
Box size does matters a whole lot, if you re using a 2 pips renko, then yeah you can get a 5 or even 10 bars in a row but if you re using 10 or 20 pips or more it will occur very rarely.
If you mark off the .25 .50 .75 and 1% levels and you watch them you will be AMAZED and how the market respects these levels!!!

However, be very clear these are not Support and Resistance Levels! Although sometimes they will react like they are.

These levels should be used to position size your trades and your stops correctly!!!


Remember the market is Random 85% of the time so if you have too tight stops inside that .5% average range you will get stopped out way too much.


That does not mean you can't or should not use tight stops but it does mean that you can not trade willy nilly all over the place all the time. You have to pick your entry levels carefully and not over trade and when you have profits that are within these .5% boundaries don't be too greedy.


You must accept this Mathematical FACT.

or IF you want to trade a lot then your stops better be very wide.
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Quoting LDFX
{quote} Yet you still have no track record to show ?! Would be much easier to attract customers.
I never understood the need for people asking traders for 'proof'/trading records/explorers/statements (if they dont want to post it for any reason) on a public forum, for free info/strategies/advice/hints etc. Nobody has to prove anything to anybody. It's always a take it or leave it - as is.

Everyone is free to say or claim whatever they want here and on any forum. Either we choose to believe or ignore it and move on. Of course there are bullshitters, scammers, but also genuine people who want to help. FF has all of them. It is upto us to test and sift through them.

Only IF someone asks money for the info, then and only then he/she has the right to ask for 'proof'. (It is surprising many of those same people will buy courses, systems, EAs costing $100s and thousands without any such proof).

Anyway, I can personally vouch for RickM because I have seen him call out live trades which you can see it happening in front of you. However it's definitely not for newbies and also not for the faint of heart. There are more than one way to skin the same cat. He sent me the same link and I also saw the commercial part, but I knew exactly what he was giving me, and did not doubt his intentions. Maybe try something first before discarding it and calling foul?
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P.S. - In one of your recent posts, you mentioned you can show 99% hit rate systems (plural). I dont know if you were being sarcastic or serious. If you were serious, do point us to these systems.
In other news: A ranger was trapped between a bull and a bear
Quoting CeeSo
If you mark off the .25 .50 .75 and 1% levels and you watch them you will be AMAZED and how the market respects these levels!!! However, be very clear these are not Support and Resistance Levels! Although sometimes they will react like they are. These levels should be used to position size your trades and your stops correctly!!! Remember the market is Random 85% of the time so if you have too tight stops inside that .5% average range you will get stopped out way too much. That does not mean you can't or should not use tight stops but it does mean...
What are these levels?
You have showed some percentages and lines on charts but if you don't explain what they are and how to calculate them nobody will understand you.
Yes you said they are not fibs, pivots or support&resistance but more is needed.
Cheers
Quoting Merka
{quote} What are these levels? You have showed some percentages and lines on charts but if you don't explain what they are and how to calculate them nobody will understand you. Yes you said they are not fibs, pivots or support&resistance but more is needed. Cheers

Did you read the first sentence of my post? and the entire post before that one? and the entire post before that one? .25% .50% .75% and 1%
Quoting Merka
What are these levels? You have showed some percentages and lines on charts but if you don't explain what they are and how to calculate them nobody will understand you. Yes you said they are not fibs, pivots or support&resistance but more is needed. Cheers
Here's the indicator for mt4 platform.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 ! b1010 MTH2014 Percent Gain Horiz Line Indicator.ex4   19 KB | 846 downloads
Trade the value
Quoting CeeSo
So I promised you guys I would continue with this thread and one of the biggest things I had to accept before I became profitable was the Mathematical Facts that the market is random 85% of the time. This is 1 year of the $EURUSD (trust me when I tell you that all the other pairs are almost identical) What this data is tell you is the market spend 85% of its time in a range plus or minus .50% What exactly does that mean? It means you are getting stopped out a hell of lot of the time if you are using tight stops. !!! THIS IS CRITICAL TO UNDERSTAND....
Hi CeeSo
Sorry, if it sounds dumb, but when you say.. market is random 85% of the time, do you really mean to say that it's in range? Or you mean to say that.. market is random 85% of the time and rest of the 15% of the time, it's predictable or measurable?

Also,
When you say .25%, .5% etc. do you mean to say that on a daily basis, market open and close vary in a range of .25% or .50% of the annual range? what do you exactly mean?
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Here's the indicator for mt4 platform. {file}
Thank you very much.
Can you please explain what are these levels .25% or .50% ... how are calculated?
Quoting Rmg
Common sense become the rarest commodity nowadays.
Quoting Forestralia
Thank you very much. Can you please explain what are these levels .25% or .50% ... how are calculated?
The lines are preset %change calculated from the Open of the day based on Ceeso's post. There're input options available for you to set it on whatever %change you choose based on whatever timeframe from h4 upwards for whatever number lookbacks.
Trade the value
Some of you are confused so I will clarify. These lines are nothing more than .25% .50% .75% 1% of the days move (from the open) above or below the market.

We know for a mathematical fact that the market stays/closes within a plus or minus .50% move 85% of the time. SEE MY PREVIOUS POST WITH 1 year DATA SPREADSHEET ^^^

Your entire trading strategy and most importantly your Money Management rules should all be built off this fact. I specifically use these levels for calculating risk because if the market stays within the plus or minus .50% range 85% of the time I can develop a money management strategy that will stop me from getting stopped out in all the noise and randomness.


Of course, the market will still have strong trending days 15% of the time so that is the next thing that you want to consider when you develop your Money Management Rules.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting CeeSo
Some of you are confused so I will clarify. These lines are nothing more than .25% .50% .75% 1% of the days move (from the open) above or below the market. We know for a mathematical fact that the market stays/closes within a plus or minus .50% move 85% of the time. SEE MY PREVIOUS POST WITH 1 year DATA SPREADSHEET ^^^ Your entire trading strategy and most importantly your Money Management rules should all be built off this fact. I specifically use these levels for calculating risk because if the market stays within the plus or minus .50% range...
now its clear and that is good stuff, thx.

can you compare it with the often used ADR?

and do you have numbers for the pound/dollar?
I know that you and I know nothing...and don't think!
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