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Attachments: What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex
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What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex

Quoting Hutch
{quote} One of the trick is to have a good strategy and be economical in trading. Below is a 10 pips Renko chart and you can see you could have collected 90 pips yesterday and 290 pips so far today. Of course this is the ideal scenario but even if you collected half these pips I'm sure you would be quite happy. {image}
I love your chart, but love even more your message. I'd point out than this PA is not random, the ranging area marked as break even is not random, and a good trader should capture at least all the up move, and with good money management can get the pull back action. Nice post.
Quoting CeeSo
So I promised you guys I would continue with this thread and one of the biggest things I had to accept before I became profitable was the Mathematical Facts that the market is random 85% of the time. This is 1 year of the $EURUSD (trust me when I tell you that all the other pairs are almost identical) What this data is tell you is the market spend 85% of its time in a range plus or minus .50% What exactly does that mean? It means you are getting stopped out a hell of lot of the time if you are using tight stops. !!! THIS IS CRITICAL TO UNDERSTAND....
Hi,

What is 'Net Change%' column measuring? Can't see why it shouodnt be the same as Open-Close change%. Can you please clarify the difference
*** Shoot for the moon. Even if you miss, you'll land among the stars. ***
I spoke before. There is nothing to learn here outside of random thoughts from random people about the randomness of the markets.

Throw a coin - 50/50 Buy/Sell. Place a trade. Manage It. Done. Move to the next trade.
Quoting Hutch
{quote} One of the trick is to have a good strategy and be economical in trading. Below is a 10 pips Renko chart and you can see you could have collected 90 pips yesterday and 290 pips so far today. Of course this is the ideal scenario but even if you collected half these pips I'm sure you would be quite happy. {image}
The truth about renko is that the chart you have posted tells you absolutely nothing, because renko gives you no sense of time. The 190 pip rise could have been an impulse spike occurring over a few seconds, making it untradable. The same holds for all other moves.
  • Post #85
  • Quote
  • Edited 11:00pm Jul 30, 2020 10:09pm | Edited 11:00pm
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} My edge is 60/40 in my favor. I have found a pattern in all the random data. Which have been tested on different timeframes, different currency pairs, both In and out of sample. I tested it for 3 years (out of sample) after doing the back testing. At this point I m really 100% sure I have an edge and I m committing serious money to this. I have to work on my psychology thou cause I still hate losing, drives me sick all the time. I want to get to a point were I am dispassionate about my trading. cheers
Hi Rennsissance

60/40 is still not good enough to make serious money in this game. I feel 80/20 is at least needed because backtesting does have margins of error. I would say you need to get your neck higher above the water mark.

Cheers Rick
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
Quoting Ryder
{quote} The truth about renko is that the chart you have posted tells you absolutely nothing, because renko gives you no sense of time. The 190 pip rise could have been an impulse spike occurring over a few seconds, making it untradable. The same holds for all other moves.
Exactly. Suppose you’re long and the market starts to turn. It’s not necessary that you will get a single confirmed bearish bar as the exit signal, it could be like 10 bearish bars that complete at once due to strength of sell-off, resulting in nullifying the whole bullish move. I can’t believe people are being disingenuous about it and others are lapping it all up
Sorry @CeeSo but this will sound harsh. You’ve to be incredibly foolish to lose so much money on an unprofitable strategy. When I was tweaking my strategy I always did it on paper, never live. Only once I was absolutely sure I have an edge did I start live
Quoting CeeSo
So I promised you guys I would continue with this thread and one of the biggest things I had to accept before I became profitable was the Mathematical Facts that the market is random 85% of the time. This is 1 year of the $EURUSD (trust me when I tell you that all the other pairs are almost identical) What this data is tell you is the market spend 85% of its time in a range plus or minus .50% What exactly does that mean? It means you are getting stopped out a hell of lot of the time if you are using tight stops. !!! THIS IS CRITICAL TO UNDERSTAND....
thats it what you want to say?
0.5% of the euro is about 60 pips on average every day. nothing new here so far.

its like i say many birds fly, but some cannot fly and walk on their legs. true, but whats the point?;-)

by the way, 60pips per day is enough to get out many pips...
I know that you and I know nothing...and don't think!
The person who said OP should only talk when he has made a million - don't forget he has already made almost 50% of the loss. Making back 50% on a small account is not a big deal, but 300k.... that takes steel balls (even for a millionaire). I am assuming all of it was his original capital, not profits mixed into it (because that can make a slight difference on the emotional toll).

Jesse Livermore made and lost millions multiple times. So even making a million in profit is no guarantee he wont lose again. That's not the point. We are here to learn from his mistakes. He is not here to lament, he is here to share/remind something that is often overlooked.

85% Random theory vs Ranging - Guys, let's not split hairs here. They are basically the same thing. Markets do range 70-80% (aka most of the time).. we all know that and can see it on our charts. We also lose most of our money during range. Why is that? Because one can argue that market became 'random/ directionless/ consolidating/ congestion/ accumulation phase/ stop hunting' - call it what you want - same game, different name. It becomes clear in hindsight that it was ranging, but during live market, it becomes difficult to say where are the boundaries.

During a trend/strong impulse move, SR and boundaries are often very clear. So let's not get hung up on semantics.
In other news: A ranger was trapped between a bull and a bear
Quoting digiff
The person who said OP should only talk when he has made a million - don't forget he has already made almost 50% of the loss. Making back 50% on a small account is not a big deal, but 300k.... that takes steel balls (even for a millionaire). I am assuming all of it was his original capital, not profits mixed into it (because that can make a slight difference on the emotional toll). Jesse Livermore made and lost millions multiple times. So even making a million in profit is no guarantee he wont lose again. That's not the point. We are here to learn...
Excellent point.. That's why you want to trade during this time frame, why not make your money 70 to 80 percent of the time rather than wait on breakouts? It's my strategy and I only get burned when things move big in one direction. That's normally one big stop out and then i either follow the trend or wait for the range again.
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Rennsissance 60/40 is still not good enough to make serious money in this game. I feel 80/20 is at least needed because backtesting does have margins of error. I would say you need to get your neck higher above the water mark. Cheers Rick
Markets are closer to efficiency than most traders believe. I think an edge of 80/20 is not realistic in a competitive market. If such edges exist, alot of people will find it. Thereby reducing the edge ,as more and more people exploit it. The things that work have to be under the radar.
When you see it, BET big.
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} Markets are closer to efficiency than most traders believe. I think an edge of 80/20 is not realistic in a competitive market. If such edges exist, alot of people will find it. Thereby reducing the edge ,as more and more people exploit it. The things that work have to be under the radar.
Hi Rennaissance

80/20 on the day chart - No chance
80/20 on the H4 chart - Unlikely
80/20 on the H1 chart - Possible
80/20 on the M15 chart - Probable
80/20 on the M1 chart - No problem

The bigger question is what do you value the most. A nice 150 pips to show of to your trader friends or 5 pips collected every 10 minutes to pay your mortgage.

Now what was that you were saying?
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Rennaissance 80/20 on the day chart - No chance 80/20 on the H4 chart - Unlikely 80/20 on the H1 chart - Possible 80/20 on the M15 chart - Probable 80/20 on the M1 chart - No problem The bigger question is what do you value the most. A nice 150 pips to show of to your trader friends or 5 pips collected every 10 minutes to pay your mortgage. Now what was that you were saying?
If your edge doesn't work on different timeframes. It is not robust.
When you see it, BET big.
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Rennaissance 80/20 on the day chart - No chance 80/20 on the H4 chart - Unlikely 80/20 on the H1 chart - Possible 80/20 on the M15 chart - Probable 80/20 on the M1 chart - No problem The bigger question is what do you value the most. A nice 150 pips to show of to your trader friends or 5 pips collected every 10 minutes to pay your mortgage. Now what was that you were saying?
Obviously the ladder.
Will be really nice to have that edge over market
Quoting digiff
85% Random theory vs Ranging - Guys, let's not split hairs here. They are basically the same thing. Markets do range 70-80% (aka most of the time).. we all know that and can see it on our charts. We also lose most of our money during range. Why is that? Because one can argue that market became 'random/ directionless/ consolidating/ congestion/ accumulation phase/ stop hunting' - call it what you want.
No, random and ranging mean different things. Ranging markets are not random, meaning that there is a defined range that the market is adhering to, and knowledgeable traders a harvesting pips from one extreme to the other, until the market breaks the range, returns to the range, and then continues the break. A 25 to 30 pip range is a wonderful thing to see. The PA in that range is not the result of random actions, just like the breakout isn't random.

The words you listed all mean different things. The word or words you chose to describe PA reflect your knowledge and understanding of the market, and the impact your trading experience has on your view of the market. If you see a 30 pip range as random, directionless, stop hunting or a place to lose, that tells me a lot about your trading experience and expertise.
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} If your edge doesn't work on different timeframes. It is not robust.
No, many strategy's that have a edge that only works on one optimized time frame that is independent of market structure. For example a inside bar strategy that is optimized to be traded only during the London trading session has to be traded on a 5 minute time frame so to meet the strategy's criteria.
That strategy still offers the trader a edge, the trader has no edge - only effort.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Rennaissance 80/20 on the day chart - No chance 80/20 on the H4 chart - Unlikely 80/20 on the H1 chart - Possible 80/20 on the M15 chart - Probable 80/20 on the M1 chart - No problem The bigger question is what do you value the most. A nice 150 pips to show of to your trader friends or 5 pips collected every 10 minutes to pay your mortgage. Now what was that you were saying?

Every strategy with 80/20 or higher (which i have tested/seen), was:

A. A moneymanagement disaster (eg 2pips tp and 40pips sl)

B. Kind of martingale longterm disaster
C. Spread disaster


... i would give a lot for a M1 80/20 strategy and 1:1
Quoting Freefox
{quote} Hi, What is 'Net Change%' column measuring? Can't see why it shouodnt be the same as Open-Close change%. Can you please clarify the difference
95% of the time there is no difference unless it is a Sunday and gaps lower
Thats the problem with young traders. I belonged to that category some time ago. The endless pursuit of the holy grail. The edges are not as big as you might believe. That is exactly why real charts and randomly generated charts look alike. The edges are on the border of randomness.
When you see it, BET big.
  • Post #100
  • Quote
  • Edited 12:40pm Jul 31, 2020 12:26pm | Edited 12:40pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} If you see a 30 pip range as random, directionless, stop hunting or a place to lose, that tells me a lot about your trading experience and expertise.
You misunderstood my point. It was about what the market does 85% (or majority) of the time. I never said that's what I personally believe. I was merely referring to what other people generally call them, veterans and gurus alike.

Of course ranges can be and are traded with precision. There are strategies specifically tailored for ranges and then there are those that only work in trending markets. That's a different topic.

Traders who can only make money when there is a trend, call it a ranging market - dull, dead, random, meaningless, chopping wood etc. Once again, that's not what I think or how I trade... just pointing out terminologies used widely. A real trader can trade both in ranging and trending markets.
In other news: A ranger was trapped between a bull and a bear
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