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Gejordan Weekly Journal

  • #1,221
  • Jul 26, 2020 4:25pm Jul 26, 2020 4:25pm
For me - Short Bias, EU sell.

MACD on Weekly - Long Bias
MA on Weekly - Long Bias
Planetary Cycle guys - Generally short, especially starting Tuesday. (I love this)

So why so many? Just to illustrate, lots of ways to consider what might happen. No magic here. When swing-ish trading like I'm showing, this is just one component. It's not magic. Sticking to one week after week is the beginning. Then letting price match bias is next. It matches right now for the long bias, so manage risk and know where price will be to get out if things don't work out. For short, know what needs to happen now to think short.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,222
  • Jul 26, 2020 6:44pm Jul 26, 2020 6:44pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} I said strange time because I gave you an exercise and you took an idea #1 trade, your first you have shown I think.
Hi Ge,
With regards to the exercise, Since the Bias was short, I didnt take any idea #2 and #3 trades last week. I took only this trade that I showed,and another one which I showed on Monday(which I didnt take profit like you did). Thank you
  • #1,223
  • Jul 28, 2020 8:50am Jul 28, 2020 8:50am
Quoting nyjetfan
Looking at two more trades tonight and a few charts that caught my eye with the levels they are at but no trades on them as they weren't hitting pre-defined areas. First up CADJPY - Short at 79.68 - TP1 79.25 and [email protected]. Pin through weekly line.{image} Edit: TP1 hit, second lot move to BE and letting it run a bit. Second one is NZDUSD - Short at 6633, TP1 6575 and SL 6692- Outside bar with wick through line.{image} Edit: retraced slightly overnight (didn't come close to stop) and now back about BE. Will monitor as US traders come online this morning....
Final update on above:

CADJPY - TP1 was hit and continuing to move my way. Watching it to see when I should tighten up stop.

NZDUSD - While the setup looked good, this one didn't drop and came back and took out my stop. Will watch for another good entry point and try again another time.

Non-trade
EURJPY - Strong move then retraced back near where entry would have been but continuing to fall slightly.

GBPNZD - Still pushing upwards, and approaching a weekly/BRN of 1.9500.

NZDJPY - Moving down near BRN 70.00 and recent support (slight pullback on push up).
  • #1,224
  • Edited 5:38am Jul 29, 2020 3:27am | Edited 5:38am
Hi Ge,

I took an Idea #3 long trade Yesterday based on the weekly MACD bias as the swings are still favoring longs. My initial target was 1.1760 but when I saw price came down from the 1740 area, i had modified the target to 1740 .
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  • #1,225
  • Jul 29, 2020 4:46am Jul 29, 2020 4:46am
nice journal....calm and clean
  • #1,226
  • Jul 30, 2020 8:36am Jul 30, 2020 8:36am
Hi Ge,

I took an idea#3 long today for 34 pips. I missed the Idea#2 long trade yesterday after my exit.
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  • #1,227
  • Jul 30, 2020 3:13pm Jul 30, 2020 3:13pm
Quoting Rearden
Hi Ge, I took an idea#3 long today for 34 pips. I missed the Idea#2 long trade yesterday after my exit. {image}
Are you following the MACD bias from now on, my bias, or whatever bias let's you trade? This might sound snarky, but I promise it's not, there might be a point to be made.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,228
  • Edited 4:48pm Jul 30, 2020 4:17pm | Edited 4:48pm
Le.Metier sent me a note, I'll answer here for everyone's benefit.
Here is the link with the original question:
https://screenrec.com/share/d1v5RkXc2K

Met asked about using market structure on the GU weekly for bias. Sure. But how you determine structure becomes the key.

Met said market structure is CLEARLY up.... Is it?
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Using the methodology I show in this thread, I could say price is in a down move since Aug 2018, further confirmed in July 2019. And that Met's HH and HL's are just retracement within a bigger down move. I could argue that price visited the swing high area in Dec. 2019 for the lowest risk short. Price is now creeping back towards the 3380 swing high.

Who is correct?

Doesn't matter.

It's how you trade it.

Where most, not all, of you fail is in your desire to be in the market ALWAYS. That is why I got away from even talking about trading smaller timeframes a couple of years ago. In trying to share with you I was actually feeding the beast. You are all junkies. I'm trying to kill your desire to trade in favor of first learning what is a good, higher probability trade. Acknowledge that your propensity is to gravitate towards something that gives you action every day. I'm a junk food addict, it's hard as hell for me to not eat a cookie if it's anywhere within 50 yards of me. Same thing for most of you and charts. You come to the chart wanting to feast, whether it's junk food or something good doesn't matter.

I'm not saying you are a junkie, Met, haven't seen any of your trading. My point is that if you are going to use bias and trade in a swing-type fashion... you (and Rearden and anyone else) need to be consistent over the long haul in how you will determine your weekly bias.

Whether or not what you are showing will work will depend on your ability to get out of trades when they don't work and avoid trades when the market isn't doing what you want it to do (following your bias). Also, not changing your strategy if you get tired of waiting for price to follow your bias. (p.s. these last two sentences are the point of everything from post 945 to here if you haven't figured that out by now. Being able to do these things requires serious chart time putting it in practice. Most will fail here because even a week of watching price move without being in a trade drives 95% of FF members to stop following their rules and/or go off to the trading strategies section hoping to find the next magic bullet.)
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,229
  • Jul 30, 2020 5:17pm Jul 30, 2020 5:17pm
Thanks for the post.
For you…but only one a day!

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Quoting gejordan
...be consistent over the long haul...
On a more serious note, long-term sustainability of the strategy and the effort required to execute it year after year isn’t generally discussed here at FF. Excitement NOW is king!
  • #1,230
  • Edited 7:08pm Jul 30, 2020 6:57pm | Edited 7:08pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Are you following the MACD bias from now on, my bias, or whatever bias let's you trade? This might sound snarky, but I promise it's not, there might be a point to be made.
Hi Ge,

My intention was to do the exercise that you gave me. The MACD bias gave the opportunity to practice that exercise. So I took those trades based on it.

Thank you
  • #1,231
  • Edited 8:09pm Jul 30, 2020 7:48pm | Edited 8:09pm
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Hi Ge, My intention was to do the exercise that you gave me. The MACD bias gave the opportunity to practice that exercise. So I took those trades based on it. Thank you
So did my bias. Pick a bias and stick with it. You don't just learn from trading, you learn just as much from not trading. With my bias, you could have tested yourself to see if you learned from your action last week. Looks familiar. You could have experienced a slow, but profitable week and learned how to build the mental attitude around steady profits even when price doesn't do what you want it to do. And so much more. A good six months, 12 months, 2 years, etc. of experiencing this and handling it correctly...


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Be bullish on you.
  • #1,232
  • Edited 8:11pm Jul 30, 2020 7:50pm | Edited 8:11pm
...Makes you into the trader with the discipline, experience, and knowledge to do this...

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I want to help get you here, I start every one of these journeys hoping someone gets here. But I can't, and you never will, if you don't do the hard things. (the hard things are the easy sounding things I talk about, that turn out to be brutally difficult, simple, but brutally difficult. Like me not eating chocolate cake).

It's not a big leap from there to here. But all the work and education is in the first chart. And that takes time. And anyone that tries to tell you it doesn't... is lying or just doesn't know.

I'm out of here again. Grab a weekly bias from one of my suggestions, any will work fine, or from one of your own. Stick with it and give it a real go. Bonus points if you can journal it out. I'll check in and comment if I see something worth mentioning.

Good Luck.
(These two posts are for everyone, not just Rearden. Start at 945, read to here, do the exercises... it's all spelled out).
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,233
  • Jul 31, 2020 2:29am Jul 31, 2020 2:29am
Adios G

Always a pleasure to have you come by once in a while.

70% dark chocolate is good for you but don't tank yourself on it. Chocolate cake made with dark chocolate - small measures
It's a dirty job but someone's gotta do it!
  • #1,234
  • Jul 31, 2020 10:00pm Jul 31, 2020 10:00pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} So did my bias. Pick a bias and stick with it. You don't just learn from trading, you learn just as much from not trading. With my bias, you could have tested yourself to see if you learned from your action last week. Looks familiar. You could have experienced a slow, but profitable week and learned how to build the mental attitude around steady profits even when price doesn't do what you want it to do. And so much more. A good six months, 12 months, 2 years, etc. of experiencing this and handling it correctly... {image}
Hi Ge,

Yes.Completely agree. I saw the short trade. I was tempted to take the trade since your Bias was SELL. I didnt take because it will be like mixing the BIAS... Bullish from MACD and Bearish as per your BIAS. Also it helps to see where you have taken the profits when markets are moving up like that.
  • #1,235
  • Jul 31, 2020 10:11pm Jul 31, 2020 10:11pm
Quoting gejordan
...Makes you into the trader with the discipline, experience, and knowledge to do this... {image} I want to help get you here, I start every one of these journeys hoping someone gets here. But I can't, and you never will, if you don't do the hard things. (the hard things are the easy sounding things I talk about, that turn out to be brutally difficult, simple, but brutally difficult. Like me not eating chocolate cake). It's not a big leap from there to here. But all the work and education is in the first chart. And that takes time. And anyone that...
Thank you very much for these posts Ge. Post 945 to here has definitely helped me a lot and the way I see charts has changed a lot these couple of months. Those posts related to trading Psychology has also been a tremendous help.

1. I'd rather take one really good trade and miss some, than take everything.
2. It doesn't matter if you use a 15 pip stop or a 150 pip stop, if you can't see the risk of the trade after you enter, you will always lose.

I will post my trade here. Thank you very much for your time.
  • #1,236
  • Edited Aug 2, 2020 4:59am Aug 1, 2020 3:23pm | Edited Aug 2, 2020 4:59am
Hi,

As bias was short no trades for me this week.
I was tempted to go long as per the MACD weekly bias, but resisted the temptation to respect the rules from post 945 and not mix both.

I realised last night I missed 3 setups idea #3 on Wednesday and Thursday and Friday
The reasons are I had misunderstood the idea 3 rule and on Wednesday was preparing for a trip and was not attentive. Thursday was driving all day long so not possible to watch the charts and Friday to busy sorting administrative issues.
Had I taken the trades they would have been losses excepted Friday. Not going to extend on those because based on suppositions.

Next week will be on a light side as visiting my son who I haven't seen for a year.

Have a good week-end
  • #1,237
  • Aug 3, 2020 10:03am Aug 3, 2020 10:03am
My weekly Bias was bullish (MACD)

I waited for the price to come near the white line and took a long trade and held it till the price confirmed the move is over to the long side. I will wait for the hold above upper white line for further bullish trades.
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  • #1,238
  • Edited 6:34pm Aug 3, 2020 6:23pm | Edited 6:34pm
Quoting Rearden
My weekly Bias was bullish (MACD) I waited for the price to come near the white line and took a long trade and held it till the price confirmed the move is over to the long side. I will wait for the hold above upper white line for further bullish trades. {image}
Looked like you were a little late on closing it, but that's ok if you weren't around, this outcome is still what you need to be experiencing. Now, take note of some of the surrounding circumstances to this trade that might have given you clues that it wouldn't work out. How did you feel when you took it, did you feel comfortable or uncomfortable. Confident or not confident in its potential success. How much raw risk did you have and did it give you a chance for a 1:1 return.

I love where you took the trade from, but now begins day one of the work thinking about the other clues. Keep trying to be perfect in following your rules AND now add some thought into it. If you can stick with it you will build a database. A mental library of these trades and circumstances over time, it will feel like you have a sixth sense, but it will be the experiencing of these setups over and over guiding you.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,239
  • Aug 3, 2020 7:33pm Aug 3, 2020 7:33pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Looked like you were a little late on closing it, but that's ok if you weren't around, this outcome is still what you need to be experiencing. Now, take note of some of the surrounding circumstances to this trade that might have given you clues that it wouldn't work out. How did you feel when you took it, did you feel comfortable or uncomfortable. Confident or not confident in its potential success. How much raw risk did you have and did it give you a chance for a 1:1 return. I love where you took the trade from, but now begins day one of...
Hi Ge,
Yes I was 20-25 pips late in closing it. I was not around my computer when it happend.

During my analysis, I saw that the price is at the previous swing highs on weekly chart and also the daily candle of Friday. The price was below the pivot and S50 and also price was dropping without any significant retracement. But TBH, i didnt see any clue that it will not work out. I thought, given these circumstances(where price is at the start of week and also below S50 and pivot), it may NOT go very high but there is a chance it may range for a while and there is a trade to S50 from where I took it. So i kept the target around the S50(Target at 1808 SL: 1718).

A bit more patience would have given me a chance for 20-25 pips SL to 30 pips reward trade (to the top of the candle that i took the trade from).
  • #1,240
  • Aug 4, 2020 6:16am Aug 4, 2020 6:16am
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Hi Ge, Yes I was 20-25 pips late in closing it. I was not around my computer when it happend. During my analysis, I saw that the price is at the previous swing highs on weekly chart and also the daily candle of Friday. The price was below the pivot and S50 and also price was dropping without any significant retracement. But TBH, i didnt see any clue that it will not work out. I thought, given these circumstances(where price is at the start of week and also below S50 and pivot), it may NOT go very high but there is a chance it may range for...
Keep it simple until you have a bunch of these under our belt. If you thought to yourself, its below the s50 and it may not go very high... you see the danger. If you keep the analysis real simple, you say to yourself this is the first time in weeks it has really been under the s50 in a meaningful way. Less aggressive targets might be called for in this situation. Not certain yet, but this example suggests it. A really good entry in this situation was needed to have a chance at a profit.

Now, wrap all of this up in your mind and store it away. It's a data point for your mind.

Still stick with the rules of the exercise and move on to the next one.
Be bullish on you.
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