The Swamp

I think its a good short in 1630s.. since it hit day 1597 moving average at 1631.9.... last time it hit this EMA1597 was on Sept 12, 2017...

In wall streets we all know''' bulls make money, bears make money.. pigs get slaughtered..."

glad i closed

I know this is stating the obvious, but the more it is shorted the higher it will go, just providing liquidity for buyers. I'm long for now until a real breakdown comes. Nice weekend all.

What's to be afraid of these days...

Suspension of disbelief is a neat little human cognitive function that allows people to willingly trick themselves into a false state of mind that allows them to fully experience and enjoy poetry, fiction, movies...

Using it to experience and engage in reality is going to lead to a boatload of pain.

NY Closing around 1830-1840

Be Careful Short ish

Or Just 1663 then Down ???

Damn you export-import guy, every time you say this it moves another 100 pips to upside just zip it sailor!

Close is bullish, very bullish. This is not the first time I am witnessing such a move but I truly don't understand what the reason for the current price behaviour is. Not only in EUR but also with XAU.

I woulld be happy to read comments over the weekend even if it is "after the fact". What is the issue with 8 BIL a day, it does not sound significant to me but maybe I am missing a point.

Technically the target is 1.1910s for me now, hard to believe but unless Sunday opens a gap down, it will keep burning every short attempt with pleasure.

i see it 1672 ish. I see another 1708/05. 6 days of green candles. All bullish looking. Adx month, week, day, 4h, and 1 h are bullish atm. Maybe some pullback around candle 7 or 8. In June it was 8 candles. Only 250 pips. Unless the month closes sub 1485, longs look to be stronger.

those candles are rounding from the bottom.. that is bullish looking also. Round is strong.

The lack of a Federal corona response. Has lead to the greatest historic cost in lives and treasure. This is not over. More printing to come. The coffers are already empty (deficit). 12 million renters are set to be evicted w/o some government intervention now. This dont include those late on mortgages. I know many dont care about this. But up the food chain, some slum lords wont get paid. The banks will be forced to be apartment owners, home owners, strip mall owners etc. The 12 million # on the street, will expand to former home owners. It will include home owners, slum lords, and the local strip mall owner. All unable to pay the banks. A massive bank bailout will follow with more printing. Or the banks will be insolvent.

Now for the people who dont care, or thinks it will not affect them. If you have good job or business. If your neighbors house is bank owned, boarded up. Your house losses value. The fire sale of vacant houses will bring down your homes value. And when it happens. Why should you continue to pay 500k for your house? When you can buy the across the street for 1/2 price. And so forth and so long. A snow ball affect. I witnessed 3 of these in the last 30 years. 1980s oil depression, S&L crash, 2008/09 crash. After 911 we had a mini one, I dont count it. Any way dont think your immune to it. You will pay for it one way, or another. We all will. I usually buy after a drop. This one could be worse than all the others combined.

For those who think this wont hurt eu. It may take a while. Eventually this will affect the world. BMW etc sells luxury cars to U.S. effluent and upper middle class. Sure the U.S will print. In any business losing customers is not good. The pendulum swings both ways. It will affect China on down its supply chain in Australia etc. It affects the entire world.

Yes, the U.S. will continue to print. Others will need a market to sell stuff. It will find a new equalized level. A world reset is coming. It always adjust. Just as it did at eu 1.6xxx

pullback and range till november elections, maybe?

not sure of the exact level here. month chart it looks like 183x. 1h it looks like 1807ish.. it has a few rejections since 1.6xx high in 2008.

The writing was on the wall from the time a cruise ship full of tourists were locked down in quarantine in Japan. When Asian and European countries began to go into lockdown the U.S. should have gone into panic mode and taken every precaution possible. They were in a better position than most of the rest of the world, with advance warning before the virus hit and got out of control. I bought physical gold and silver coins while trump was saying "We only have 11 cases, one day it will be gone, like a miracle." I have 5 houses I'm paying mortgages on which I lease to tenants. I put two of them on the market 3 months ago in anticipation of drop in values. No offers yet. My rental income won't cover my mortgage payments. The upcoming impacts you detail above will be felt around the world, beyond a doubt. Worldwide recession. Australia, relatively unaffected by the health impacts of the virus so far due to well managed response in the early stages of the spread, relies on coal and iron ore exports for the majority of it's income. Most people here don't realize that the health of the economy here is reliant on the health of the world economy. They have a feeling of complacent isolation. When China's markets for it's exports shrink, it will reduce it's imports from Australia. International tourism, another important source of income and jobs, not only to Australia but many other countries in the world, has virtually ceased to exist. Australia survived the GFC without going into recession. This time around it is already in recession, as most countries in the world were within the first month of lockdown, although officially statistics of that weren't confirmed until quarterly results were published. Every aspect of trade, for every country in the world, will be impacted in one way or another. As you say, a reset is coming. How well the U.S. copes with that will be greatly dependent on how well the country is managed. It desperately needs a change of management to deal effectively with the unnecessarily catastrophic repercussions facing it now.

I got caught off guard yesterday. The combination of the $U.S. hitting the low of March 9th and signs of risk off occurring at the same time led me to expect a bounce in $U.S.D. I thought that eventually it was likely to break this level, but in the short term a bounce was almost certain. Once again I was taught not to be overly confident of my expectations, but to be alert to signs of what the market is doing. The time the $U.S.D spent at that those lows, rising marginally then going back to hit the lows again repeatedly concerned me, but I didn't react quickly enough. I had sold GU and AU. Fortunately for me, I got out of the AU belatedly with profit, but only cut half of my GU at small loss, and hold the remainder. I'm fortunate that my sell of AUD/JPY more than compensated, and I'm in front for a day that went unexpectedly against me.

But a point I want to make is that yesterday seems to have confirmed a profound shift in the perception of the $USD as a safe haven currency. Something that could always be relied on before. As Gator said in a post above "A world reset is coming."

On subject of EU.

The Very strong close of the Euro, with a high reached in the last hour of the last day of the week, is a powerful indication of continuation of trend. Likewise, DAX closed on new low since March 9th in the last hour. Indication of more of the same to come.

But did you catch any fish?

Whose economy will benefit the most from a weak dollar in this environment if i may ask?

The "risk off" sentiment which was apparent at the beginning of Friday's session seems to have been no more than a whimper. Even the battered $USD managed to rise against the Yen at close. I closed half my AJ shorts at 74.96 before going to bed four hours b4 market close. Well in front at that time. The other half, shorted at 75.74-75.88 are still carrying a profit with market close at 75.42, but in this crazy risk on market, that seems likely to evaporate on Monday.