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The Swamp

  • #72,101
  • Jul 23, 2020 11:03pm Jul 23, 2020 11:03pm
China has ordered the US to shut its consulate in Chengdu
  • #72,102
  • Jul 23, 2020 11:05pm Jul 23, 2020 11:05pm
Quoting Blackopal
GU looking like it might have put in it's top. 4 day candles all with wicks on top, no solid bodies above current level, look left June 20 peaked here, pin bar, solid body closed just below current level. Today pinbar on 30M TF followed by small indecisive bear candle. Also Dax currently about 2 pips above March 9th low, retested the low about two hours ago. Might bounce here. Short GU 1.2753
Yes men!
  • #72,103
  • Jul 23, 2020 11:08pm Jul 23, 2020 11:08pm
Quoting gatenio
China has ordered the US to shut its consulate in Chengdu

Tit for Tat. Escalation
  • #72,104
  • Jul 23, 2020 11:10pm Jul 23, 2020 11:10pm
Dax lifting only a little so far, but Yen strengthened against $US. Yen time coming
  • #72,105
  • Jul 23, 2020 11:28pm Jul 23, 2020 11:28pm
Quoting Blackopal
Dax lifting only a little so far, but Yen strengthened against $US. Yen time coming
Yen is strong across the board, even EJ is getting pulled down.

UJ might be hard on 106 support but worth watching.
I'm into buying these days, UJ waves are tolerable than EU - but will flip if 105.9-106 gives up.
Peace is more valuable than success.
LifeDrifts v1 [automated] All Time Return: -0.1%
  • #72,106
  • Jul 23, 2020 11:29pm Jul 23, 2020 11:29pm
I'm not seeing much sign of weakness on EU chart yet, but it was last to rise, maybe last to fall. AU & AJ NU NJ breaking down nicely. Pound seems to have started. EU flag formed on one hour chart. EG has already run up from the beating it took on the 20th, but has formed a bullish flag on the four HR TF which indicates more rise.
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  • #72,107
  • Jul 23, 2020 11:32pm Jul 23, 2020 11:32pm
Quoting gellowmellow
{quote} Yen is strong across the board, even EJ is getting pulled down. UJ might be hard on 106 support but worth watching. I'm into buying these days, UJ waves are tolerable than EU - but will flip if 105.9-106 gives up.

I agree on UJ. The DAX is likely to bounce now, so US$ against Yen is not the play. I'm out of the trade I had on it, switched to AJ and will probably add shorts on a bounce
  • #72,108
  • Jul 23, 2020 11:35pm Jul 23, 2020 11:35pm
Quoting Blackopal
I'm not seeing much sign of weakness on EU chart yet, but it was last to rise, maybe last to fall. AU & AJ NU NJ breaking down nicely. Pound seems to have started. EU flag formed on one hour chart. EG has already run up from the beating it took on the 20th, but has formed a bullish flag on the four HR TF which indicates more rise. {image} {image}
I went in short eu. Scale higher equities risk off. May close before us open
  • #72,109
  • Jul 23, 2020 11:36pm Jul 23, 2020 11:36pm
Quoting gellowmellow
{quote} Yen is strong across the board, even EJ is getting pulled down. UJ might be hard on 106 support but worth watching. I'm into buying these days, UJ waves are tolerable than EU - but will flip if 105.9-106 gives up.
Definitely a risk off move because of china us embassy thing.
The question is will this be enough to send the market into a correction. When US did it to china, market largely ignored the issue.

Closing below 1590 means that we may see more downside. Possibly a retest of 1540.

Now just need to see what the europeans think
  • #72,110
  • Jul 23, 2020 11:36pm Jul 23, 2020 11:36pm
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} I agree on UJ. The DAX is likely to bounce now, so US$ against Yen is not the play. I'm out of the trade I had on it, switched to AJ and will probably add shorts on a bounce
Looks like AUD is weak against other pairs as well.
And that daily engulfing on AJ looks nice, good luck! I should check these pairs more often...
Peace is more valuable than success.
LifeDrifts v1 [automated] All Time Return: -0.1%
  • #72,111
  • Jul 23, 2020 11:39pm Jul 23, 2020 11:39pm
21 minutes to go til 4H. Pound looks likely to be bear engulfed
  • #72,112
  • Jul 23, 2020 11:40pm Jul 23, 2020 11:40pm
Quoting gellowmellow
{quote} Looks like AUD is weak against other pairs as well. And that daily engulfing on AJ looks nice, good luck! I should check these pairs more often...

Thanks Buddy. I think only just started. Lots of room below. quick glance at daily says 7280 in sight
  • #72,113
  • Jul 23, 2020 11:43pm Jul 23, 2020 11:43pm
Quoting thelws
{quote} Definitely a risk off move because of china us embassy thing. The question is will this be enough to send the market into a correction. When US did it to china, market largely ignored the issue. Closing below 1590 means that we may see more downside. Possibly a retest of 1540. Now just need to see what the europeans think
Geopolitical tensions nowadays don't seem to move EU down much unlike when DX bulls was trending 98-100.
DX is infested with Corona uncertainties, a strong currency needs a strong fundamentals so the risk on/off doens't seem to work nowadays.
EU looks peaking to me but the POMO thing might be scary.
Peace is more valuable than success.
LifeDrifts v1 [automated] All Time Return: -0.1%
  • #72,114
  • Jul 23, 2020 11:51pm Jul 23, 2020 11:51pm
Quoting TuTang
{quote} I went in short eu. Scale higher equities risk off. May close before us open
added more at 1606, hope to get 1540 london session.
  • #72,115
  • Jul 23, 2020 11:57pm Jul 23, 2020 11:57pm
Quoting gellowmellow
{quote} Geopolitical tensions nowadays don't seem to move EU down much unlike when DX bulls was trending 98-100. DX is infested with Corona uncertainties, a strong currency needs a strong fundamentals so the risk on/off doens't seem to work nowadays. EU looks peaking to me but the POMO thing might be scary.
I find it quite the contrary though.

This morning when china did the expected retaliation thing, risk currencies like aud,nzd dropped. Funding currency like jpy rise. So at least in asia, the risk on risk off thing is still valid. Equities futures are also down. Gold and bonds are up slightly. All this is very normal risk off behaviour.

Just not sure how the europeans and US traders think.
  • #72,116
  • Jul 24, 2020 12:01am Jul 24, 2020 12:01am
Quoting gatenio
{quote} added more at 1606, hope to get 1540 london session.
Still recalled Boulder POMO ytd. Might cut off early if we have a good ride. sadly cant think long term with Fed like this. Doom both side.
Speaking of Risk-off. Its still lurking in the background of the noise. Freaking wolves can come out anytime and give a bite to the bulls. 1.161x should have been 'the R' without fed.
  • #72,117
  • Jul 24, 2020 12:03am Jul 24, 2020 12:03am
This is the 3rd consecutive week EU consumes the previous week's range.
Same thing happened last bull run last week May - first 2 weeks of June.

Difference so far, now it is not printing long wicks H4 - neither long tails though.
Peace is more valuable than success.
LifeDrifts v1 [automated] All Time Return: -0.1%
  • #72,118
  • Jul 24, 2020 12:03am Jul 24, 2020 12:03am
Quoting gatenio
{quote} added more at 1606, hope to get 1540 london session.
I set mine to 1577 some pairs are getting extreme.. Then I watch for a possible correction to see if it healthy or if I need to change course..
  • #72,119
  • Jul 24, 2020 12:04am Jul 24, 2020 12:04am
Quoting Blackopal
21 minutes to go til 4H. Pound looks likely to be bear engulfed

GU bears engulfed 4H

Added S 2730 at support, but I think it is cracking, pending 2738
  • #72,120
  • Jul 24, 2020 3:03am Jul 24, 2020 3:03am
Quoting Georginson
I just want to share a research work for EURUSD traders, NOT A COMPULSION FOR ANYONE TO FOLLOW. Here is is given below. The last times EURUSD had 4 - 5 consecutive weeks of buying were from: December 18 2016 to January 29 2017 (1.0351 - 1.0828) then had recovery to 1.0492 three weeks later (316 pips recovery) February 26 2017 to March 26 2017 (1.0494 - 1.0905) then had recovery to 1.0568 two weeks later (337 pips recovery) July 9 2017 to July 30 2017 (1.1369 - 1.1909) then had recovery to 1.1661 two weeks later (248 pips recovery) November 5 2017...
Good work as usual.
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