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The Swamp

  • #72,081
  • Jul 23, 2020 10:47am Jul 23, 2020 10:47am
highest vol of the day appeared on top today....nice trick bulls
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #72,082
  • Jul 23, 2020 11:56am Jul 23, 2020 11:56am
Sell off in US equities but hardly any dent on euro
It still above 1.16
  • #72,083
  • Jul 23, 2020 12:38pm Jul 23, 2020 12:38pm
Quoting Connors
At the end of every bull cycle, things look very bullish and the opposite is true for a bear cycle. Took the short @1.1614, have two more pending sell orders @1.1630 and 1.1640, stops @1.1670. TP1 @1.1520 TP2 @1.1495
I will take some off the table if it can get to 1.1565 before NY close. Today's close is somewhat important for a mini bear run tomorrow.
Dear FX Gods, I need this trade. Please hear my prayers.
  • #72,084
  • Jul 23, 2020 12:43pm Jul 23, 2020 12:43pm
Quoting Connors
{quote} I will take some off the table if it can get to 1.1565 before NY close. Today's close is somewhat important for a mini bear run tomorrow. Dear FX Gods, I need this trade. Please hear my prayers.
May be @1.1583
  • #72,085
  • Jul 23, 2020 1:10pm Jul 23, 2020 1:10pm
IN
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot0.png Size: 4 KB
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #72,086
  • Jul 23, 2020 2:21pm Jul 23, 2020 2:21pm
Quoting ill_be_back
IN {image}

Same 2 hours before.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture1.PNG Size: 4 KB


targeting 1.1670
  • #72,087
  • Jul 23, 2020 2:21pm Jul 23, 2020 2:21pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} looking @ weekly kiwi could be double top in place aussie H&S, just saying
oops kiwi "daily' double top ?/Maybe
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #72,088
  • Jul 23, 2020 2:28pm Jul 23, 2020 2:28pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I now let my ea trade for me... .. cut down my screen time....next time I will post my ea trades sooner
Hey Boulder, just wondering what happened to all those shorts you had opened? Do you still have them or closed them in loss? Just curious to know because you posted them and want to see how’s your strategy works when market goes 500+ pips against your trades.
  • #72,089
  • Jul 23, 2020 2:28pm Jul 23, 2020 2:28pm
Quoting Biplobff
{quote} May be @1.1583
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #72,090
  • Jul 23, 2020 3:39pm Jul 23, 2020 3:39pm
Hello!!

I have been in quarantine and finally busy back to work. I got stopped out on my last eu short.. -50 pips

This i lost 2%

Euro is bullish to 1.22 and my 1.0635 target is null and void. It can still go down but i now see bullish breakout since 1.1485 was penetrated. So less chance of 1.06 and more of 1.22 at this point
  • #72,091
  • Jul 23, 2020 5:31pm Jul 23, 2020 5:31pm
There goes that spike again..no news
  • #72,092
  • Edited 6:56pm Jul 23, 2020 5:41pm | Edited 6:56pm
Quoting Blackopal
Pending UJ short 107.205 SL 107.32 TP 106.42 {image}

This triggered last night while I was at work. Yen has been hammered lately with the risk on scene, even UJ has held up comparatively well while the DAX dived. UJ just now dipped below support that has kept it up for the last month. AJ has a double top on the daily chart, and yesterday NY closed with engulfing bear candle. MM just milked the hell out of the EU and all Euro crosses during the EU Summit by holding the Euro back during the "risk on" rally. The obvious next move is to milk "risk off" for a little while= Yen up. I'm going to hit the AJ shorts, started with 75.88 just b4 the UJ broke support, AU going up a little now keeps AJ up for an opportunity to hit it. Small short on AU while I'm at it. Nice looking Bear top daily candles on AU

Lots of risk being ignored now. More realistic unemployment numbers will be filtering thru as employees who have been supported as "temporarily unemployed" will be joining the ranks of the unemployed. China tensions escalating. Hong Kong. Virus still out there. Negative Economic data from the shutdowns yet to be fully realized. Forthcoming bankruptcies. Trump. All previously discussed here, ignored by the market, Yen dropped. I think these may come into focus more next week now that the Euro hype is over. More importantly, the UJ drop is indicating the Yen may be a good bet. And where better than the Aussie $?
  • #72,093
  • Edited 6:02pm Jul 23, 2020 5:47pm | Edited 6:02pm
Quoting umbrella man
{quote} Hey Boulder, just wondering what happened to all those shorts you had opened? Do you still have them or closed them in loss? Just curious to know because you posted them and want to see how’s your strategy works when market goes 500+ pips against your trades.
I run several accounts with different strategies, from aggressive to conservative. I still have all in conservative accounts, But for aggressive accounts, I cut 20% to 30% trades at loss from 1400s and up , since I planed 500 pips against my trade not 800 pips against my trades.
As I mentioned earlier, for this strategy to work, it needs Constantly withdrawing profits along the way to remove risks out of table, To make accounts basically free money,,,,
Nowadays, i don't post trades much.. since I have switched to ea trades.. I just manage those ea trades I have..
  • #72,094
  • Jul 23, 2020 6:55pm Jul 23, 2020 6:55pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I run several accounts with different strategies, from aggressive to conservative. I still have all in conservative accounts, But for aggressive accounts, I cut 20% to 30% trades at loss from 1400s and up , since I planed 500 pips against my trade not 800 pips against my trades. As I mentioned earlier, for this strategy to work, it needs Constantly withdrawing profits along the way to remove risks out of table, To make accounts basically free money,,,, Nowadays, i don't post trades much.. since I have switched to ea trades.. I just manage...

I play the EA a little too Boulder. It's had a couple of wild days this week. I hope you did well with it.
  • #72,095
  • Jul 23, 2020 6:59pm Jul 23, 2020 6:59pm
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} I play the EA a little too Boulder. It's had a couple of wild days this week. I hope you did well with it.
This kind crazy market, ea can trade well...no emotion involves.... ..
  • #72,096
  • Jul 23, 2020 7:15pm Jul 23, 2020 7:15pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} This kind crazy market, ea can trade well...no emotion involves.... ..

It had a nice little short term double bottom. 200 down and 200 + back up. I got in on the bounce from bottom, was happy with what I took out of it. I debated leaving some to run a little longer, in hind sight that would have paid nicely, but a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush. There are always more birds to hunt, and more promising setups.
  • #72,097
  • Jul 23, 2020 7:34pm Jul 23, 2020 7:34pm
GU looking like it might have put in it's top. 4 day candles all with wicks on top, no solid bodies above current level, look left June 20 peaked here, pin bar, solid body closed just below current level. Today pinbar on 30M TF followed by small indecisive bear candle. Also Dax currently about 2 pips above March 9th low, retested the low about two hours ago. Might bounce here. Short GU 1.2753
  • #72,098
  • Jul 23, 2020 8:35pm Jul 23, 2020 8:35pm
I just want to share a research work for EURUSD traders, NOT A COMPULSION FOR ANYONE TO FOLLOW. Here is is given below.

The last times EURUSD had 4 - 5 consecutive weeks of buying were from:

December 18 2016 to January 29 2017 (1.0351 - 1.0828) then had recovery to 1.0492 three weeks later (316 pips recovery)

February 26 2017 to March 26 2017 (1.0494 - 1.0905) then had recovery to 1.0568 two weeks later (337 pips recovery)

July 9 2017 to July 30 2017 (1.1369 - 1.1909) then had recovery to 1.1661 two weeks later (248 pips recovery)

November 5 2017 to November 26 2017 (1.1553 - 1.1960) then had recovery to 1.1716 two weeks later (244 pips recovery)

January 7 2018 to January 21 2018 (1.1914 - 1.2536) then had recovery to 1.2204 two weeks later (332 pips recovery)

September 29 2019 to October 20 2019 (1.0878 - 1.1178) then had recovery to 1.0988 three weeks later (190 pips recovery)

November 24 2019 - December 29 2019 (1.0980 - 1.1238) then had recovery to 1.1085 two weeks later (153 pips recovery)
May 17 2020 - June 7 2020 (1.0799 - 1.1421) then had recovery to 1.1167 one week later (254 pips recovery)

Now this current move from
June 21 2020 - July 19 2020 (1.1167 - 1.1626) is expected to have minimum recovery to 1.1376 (250 pips recovery or more)

This is the most consecutive weeks of buying since 2016 and according to history, the last week of buying before such reversal is usually aggressive and this week is already aggressively stretched to 226 pips range.
I hope this is useful.

Cheers.

George
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #72,099
  • Jul 23, 2020 8:46pm Jul 23, 2020 8:46pm
Quoting Georginson
I just want to share a research work for EURUSD traders, NOT A COMPULSION FOR ANYONE TO FOLLOW. Here is is given below. The last times EURUSD had 4 - 5 consecutive weeks of buying were from: December 18 2016 to January 29 2017 (1.0351 - 1.0828) then had recovery to 1.0492 three weeks later (316 pips recovery) February 26 2017 to March 26 2017 (1.0494 - 1.0905) then had recovery to 1.0568 two weeks later (337 pips recovery) July 9 2017 to July 30 2017 (1.1369 - 1.1909) then had recovery to 1.1661 two weeks later (248 pips recovery) November 5 2017...
thanks bud
  • #72,100
  • Edited 9:06pm Jul 23, 2020 8:49pm | Edited 9:06pm
Quoting Blackopal
Pending UJ short 107.205 SL 107.32 TP 106.42 {image}

TP hit. Riding AJ down....Haven't looked at TP, took a few entries, I think it might be a long ride. Scale out
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