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Gejordan Weekly Journal

  • #1,201
  • Jul 21, 2020 6:36pm Jul 21, 2020 6:36pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} That outcome is fine. Glad you took it. Did you look at the chart at any point during the three candles that happened down near your target? If not around during that time, do you see why this type of trade would be worth passing on if you know you wouldn't be around? I put an alert in that area and it went off and I closed before I went to sleep. I took it with you to help you along with the exercise, but what I have learned in my years of doing these exercises and trading, is that I am willing to miss this setup because I will likely be...
Hi Ge, I had the chart up at that point. I was looking at the chart. But I was waiting to see if it will come down lower just a few pips to hit my target.

I am not 100% sure on this but I think, its worth passing because the price opened with a Gap to the downside but supported right at the S50 without going any lower and started pushing higher strongly.
  • #1,202
  • Jul 21, 2020 7:49pm Jul 21, 2020 7:49pm
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Hi Ge, I had the chart up at that point. I was looking at the chart. But I was waiting to see if it will come down lower just a few pips to hit my target. I am not 100% sure on this but I think, its worth passing because the price opened with a Gap to the downside but supported right at the S50 without going any lower and started pushing higher strongly.
did you have any emotion when it went to loss?

You tell me, what might be the smart thing to do and why? You were letting emotion drive you... even on a little position. That is why I love live trading even the smallest position versus demo when learning. You had no logical progression that took over when it was sitting down there. Nor should you yet. That's the point of the exercise... to develop it.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,203
  • Jul 21, 2020 8:38pm Jul 21, 2020 8:38pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} did you have any emotion when it went to loss? You tell me, what might be the smart thing to do and why? You were letting emotion drive you... even on a little position. That is why I love live trading even the smallest position versus demo when learning. You had no logical progression that took over when it was sitting down there. Nor should you yet. That's the point of the exercise... to develop it.
When it went to loss, I was a bit disappointed and thought I should have taken the small profit(because there was a chance for price to break to upside too).

The idle scenario was, I should have taken the profit when i saw those inverted pins and then waited for the price to close and hold below the S50 or below the weekly Open area and wait for it to come back to take another attempt for shorting again.
  • #1,204
  • Edited 10:25pm Jul 21, 2020 10:08pm | Edited 10:25pm
Quoting Rearden
{quote} When it went to loss, I was a bit disappointed and thought I should have taken the small profit(because there was a chance for price to break to upside too). The idle scenario was, I should have taken the profit when i saw those inverted pins and then waited for the price to close and hold below the S50 or below the weekly Open area and wait for it to come back to take another attempt for shorting again.
I love this answer you just gave because I get to pick on you. But its for a good cause.

"I was disappointed and should have taken the small profit". Small profit! It looked like 20-25 pips. Imagine that on 1, 5, 10 full lots. Not such a small profit for some easy work taking a trade from the top. All profit is profit. Cherish it. Understand that it represents trading rule #1. Make money. Micro, mini, full... it all represents mastery of the chart. All those 20-25 pip successes add up at the end of the week, month, and year.

I'm glad you were honest and included that part of the sentence, but try your best to focus the learning on the chart. Not the profit/loss part. You knew there was a possible issue with the trade... no need to be aggressive. Try to condense your takeaways to that. You aren't going to become a millionaire trader on that one trade, so see the chart first and keep the takeaways to the chart these next couple of months.

And don't forget the good... you took a trade from the best place at the time. You took it. That's a win. You saw the trouble. It was similar to the week before. Seeing it is a win. This exercise over the coming months will hopefully help you bridge the gap from taking the trade and seeing the trouble to figuring out how to do the profitable thing.

Go back to the weekly bias macd chart a few posts ago. This move from the bottom when macd bias signaled entry is about 630 pips. I've made way more than that on the move up trading like this. Not on one 630 pip trade. On a bunch of trades anywhere from 5-100 pips. Closing trades too early, but always knowing another trade is going to happen. Keeping my focus on the chart, not the money associated with it.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,205
  • Jul 22, 2020 5:37am Jul 22, 2020 5:37am
Quoting gejordan
{quote} I love this answer you just gave because I get to pick on you. But its for a good cause. "I was disappointed and should have taken the small profit". Small profit! It looked like 20-25 pips. Imagine that on 1, 5, 10 full lots. Not such a small profit for some easy work taking a trade from the top. All profit is profit. Cherish it. Understand that it represents trading rule #1. Make money. Micro, mini, full... it all represents mastery of the chart. All those 20-25 pip successes add up at the end of the week, month, and year. I'm glad you...
Yes. Taking small profits has been an issue for some time. I always think what if this is a huge move. Infact I should be focusing more on the chart and be ok with leaving some pips on the table and be mentally ok with it.
  • #1,206
  • Jul 22, 2020 6:14am Jul 22, 2020 6:14am
@Rearden....

'I always think what if this is a huge move'

That's classic ETB in action. You are identifying a bunch of stuff. You are posting it all and that is fantastic! Keep up the good work.
It's a dirty job but someone's gotta do it!
  • #1,207
  • Jul 22, 2020 6:43am Jul 22, 2020 6:43am
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Yes. Taking small profits has been an issue for some time. I always think what if this is a huge move. Infact I should be focusing more on the chart and be ok with leaving some pips on the table and be mentally ok with it.
Hi Rearden - I'm curious about your trading positions. Do you do "2 lots" which enables you to close one at a small/decent profit, and then you can have some money in the bank while watching the second one play out (and can even move the SL on lot 2 to BE). Still catching up on the thread, but definitely seeing great progress in your trading and mindset (also want to say if GE has you doing something different than the above for learning purposes ignore the above comment), just need to ensure you don't become overconfident. I believe it was GE that always used to say "You can't go broke taking a profit".
  • #1,208
  • Jul 22, 2020 8:07am Jul 22, 2020 8:07am
Quoting LaBoca
@Rearden.... 'I always think what if this is a huge move' That's classic ETB in action. You are identifying a bunch of stuff. You are posting it all and that is fantastic! Keep up the good work.
Thank you for the encouragement LaBoca. Appreciate it.
  • #1,209
  • Jul 22, 2020 8:19am Jul 22, 2020 8:19am
Quoting nyjetfan
{quote} Hi Rearden - I'm curious about your trading positions. Do you do "2 lots" which enables you to close one at a small/decent profit, and then you can have some money in the bank while watching the second one play out (and can even move the SL on lot 2 to BE). Still catching up on the thread, but definitely seeing great progress in your trading and mindset (also want to say if GE has you doing something different than the above for learning purposes ignore the above comment), just need to ensure you don't become overconfident. I believe it...
Hi Jet,

Thank you for the advice. Currently, I am still learning on seeing the charts first and then understand the movement of price. Yes, 2 lots is a good way to do it. But right now, I am just focusing on the basics first. Seeing the chart, Understanding the movement of price, see which swing is in play, understand bias, how does all relate to each other and enter position and exit at the next previous high/low. Keep it simple and repeat that without much mental drama.

2 lots will have my head going in all directions at the moment since there are more choices to make. Thank you very much for the input.
  • #1,210
  • Jul 22, 2020 10:45am Jul 22, 2020 10:45am
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Hi Jet, Thank you for the advice. Currently, I am still learning on seeing the charts first and then understand the movement of price. Yes, 2 lots is a good way to do it. But right now, I am just focusing on the basics first. Seeing the chart, Understanding the movement of price, see which swing is in play, understand bias, how does all relate to each other and enter position and exit at the next previous high/low. Keep it simple and repeat that without much mental drama. 2 lots will have my head going in all directions at the moment since...
Totally agree Rearden, stick to what's important now and don't add complexity or challenges until you're comfortable with reading the charts, etc. One of my biggest challenges in past was trying to do too much at once, or add too much into my system in a single update.
  • #1,211
  • Edited Jul 24, 2020 5:21am Jul 23, 2020 7:01am | Edited Jul 24, 2020 5:21am
Just adding another trade, however just to be clear I'm trading off dailies and SR levels whereas Rearden appears to be trading hourlies with GE.

GE - If these are confusing the thread and work you're doing with Rearden and you'd rather me not add them here, let me know.

This one was pretty standard fare, bearish pin bar on AUDCAD with the wick poking through the weekly SR line.

Entered short at .9579 with two lots. SL is .9645 (just above the wick of pinbar and above weekly SR line to give room in event of retrace). TP1 on lot 1 is 9500. Attached charts are showing the setup as it looked this morning as I didn't have time to grab charts when placing order last night.

Edit to update - TP1 hit, second lot set to BE and will "trail" the second lot with the stop (tighten when see action against the move, or if break through previous SR line move stop down to just above the line)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCADDailyZ.png Size: 26 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCADDaily.png Size: 35 KB
  • #1,212
  • Jul 23, 2020 8:19am Jul 23, 2020 8:19am
A small Idea #1 trade aligned with the Bias of the week. 20 Pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,213
  • Jul 23, 2020 9:57am Jul 23, 2020 9:57am
Quoting Rearden
A small Idea #1 trade aligned with the Bias of the week. 20 Pips {image}
But what made you take the trade? What's the setup? Looks to me like you just wanted to trade.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,214
  • Jul 23, 2020 11:40am Jul 23, 2020 11:40am
Quoting gejordan
{quote} But what made you take the trade? What's the setup? Looks to me like you just wanted to trade.
Hi Ge,
My idea was to take a trade from edge back to S50. I saw that price didnt break the 1.1600 BRN the first time. When it couldn't break a second time, I went ahead with the short and kept a small target.

Just now when you asked the question, I realised I shouldn't have attempted the short since price didnt break any swing to downside and price was still in an up move at the point when I took the trade.
  • #1,215
  • Jul 23, 2020 2:44pm Jul 23, 2020 2:44pm
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Hi Ge, My idea was to take a trade from edge back to S50. I saw that price didnt break the 1.1600 BRN the first time. When it couldn't break a second time, I went ahead with the short and kept a small target. Just now when you asked the question, I realised I shouldn't have attempted the short since price didnt break any swing to downside and price was still in an up move at the point when I took the trade.
What's interesting is that I think it is your first idea #1 trade. I'm not saying it is a bad idea, but happened at a strange time.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,216
  • Edited Jul 24, 2020 5:25am Jul 23, 2020 4:13pm | Edited Jul 24, 2020 5:25am
Looking at two more trades tonight and a few charts that caught my eye with the levels they are at but no trades on them as they weren't hitting pre-defined areas.

First up CADJPY - Short at 79.68 - TP1 79.25 and [email protected]. Pin through weekly line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPYDaily.png Size: 38 KB


Edit: TP1 hit, second lot move to BE and letting it run a bit.

Second one is NZDUSD - Short at 6633, TP1 6575 and SL 6692- Outside bar with wick through line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDDaily.png Size: 34 KB


Edit: retraced slightly overnight (didn't come close to stop) and now back about BE. Will monitor as US traders come online this morning.

The remaining three aren't trades but just watching the charts as they appear to be at/near areas of interest.

EURJPY - No action here, not even a line of interest, just seeing how we are respecting the area from early May. Even if I had a line here I'd not take this trade as it looks to be a doji as opposed to a pin bar (and wick isn't extending above bar immediately to the left) but noting this to watch what happens at this area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYDaily.png Size: 41 KB


Edit: Strong move down overnight, however no trade was executed as this wasn't at a predefined line, just a location that stood out from looking at chart.

GBPNZD - This is an outside bar near a monthly line, but not touching line. Can see this area was recently tested in early July, but not sure if it will hold as the upward push from early July didn't put much space between this area/line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZDDaily.png Size: 39 KB


Edit: Small upward push overnight. No trade was taken here, but just watching as it seemed to be testing slightly above monthly line for second time.

Finally NZDJPY - The wick missed my line by about 6 pips, but it is an outside bar at a weekly SR value from past, and you can see this was tested in early June with some decent distance down almost to the monthly before coming back up to test again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPYDaily.png Size: 34 KB


Edit: No trade taken but overnight has put in a downward push of about 50 pips and price is still near bottom of that candle and could push further.
  • #1,217
  • Jul 23, 2020 6:49pm Jul 23, 2020 6:49pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} What's interesting is that I think it is your first idea #1 trade. I'm not saying it is a bad idea, but happened at a strange time.
Hi Ge,

I believe when you say strange time, its because I didn't wait for the price to break down lower and then retrace for an idea#1 entry or my entry was two candles late and the trade had already happend? Thank you.
  • #1,218
  • Jul 25, 2020 2:33pm Jul 25, 2020 2:33pm
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Hi Ge, I believe when you say strange time, its because I didn't wait for the price to break down lower and then retrace for an idea#1 entry or my entry was two candles late and the trade had already happend? Thank you.
I said strange time because I gave you an exercise and you took an idea #1 trade, your first you have shown I think.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,219
  • Edited 4:09am Jul 26, 2020 2:41am | Edited 4:09am
Hi,
No trades for me last week, as the rules were not matching, - Down bias but no broken lows and no 50 sma cross and retest.
So this morning after reading the last comments I decided to have a look and Ge last exercise. weekly bias base on MACD from May 26.
Of course it is insight but I did it Candide as I could, have I missed some , probably.
I applied the following rules to be as much as possible in line with the trade ideas 2 &3.
Idea 2 - brake and stay more than 2 close above a swing high , entry is when price come back to the broken swing high and close again above the swing high , the stop would be placed below the swing low (see trade #2)
Idea 3 - entry is at the touch of 50 sma - I did not consider any stop loss as I did the exercise to apply the higher time frame bias ans stick with it for several weeks.

Idea 3 trades : 1,4,6,7,9,10,11,13,15,17,19,22,23,24
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 1006.png Size: 50 KB

#2 - price pull back below broken high and close above, SL below most recent swing low (1)
#3,5,8 are similar setups, there is a potential set up between 3 and 5 but not trigger
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 2605.png Size: 47 KB

#12,16 while writing, just realised it also an idea 3 as it pulls back to the sma
#14,18, 20,22,23,24 - price pull back below broken high and close above, SL below most recent swing low
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 0107.png Size: 48 KB
There is a period of pull back on the weekly charts were it is the money management and stop loss management that will make the difference.
A question to Gejordan, Once you realised that by sticking to your rules without deviating, did you start trading and tweaked your money/risk management as you were discovering or you had strict rules as well?
During your journey, I am sure you had a reflexion about how to reduce drawdown and psychological negative effect of losing trades especially when the price move in the opposite direction to your higher timeframe bias.
What was train of thought and how you overpass not the fear of loss but how pass over this instinct human behavior trying to find a better way?
Thank you.
  • #1,220
  • Jul 26, 2020 10:10am Jul 26, 2020 10:10am
There is a period of pull back on the weekly charts were it is the money management and stop loss management that will make the difference.

When thinking about bias, try not to think in terms of "pullback". There are times where price movement matches bias and times when it doesn't match. I suggest trying to only think in terms of pullback when you want to trade. I know this might seem strange and obscure, but when you trade a pullback it's connected in your brain with looking for a trade because it's time to trade. When we talk about movement associated with bias, we don't want to be firing off the part of our brain that wants to trade. Quite the opposite, we need to fight the urge to trade.

A question to Gejordan, Once you realised that by sticking to your rules without deviating, did you start trading and tweaked your money/risk management as you were discovering or you had strict rules as well?
I had a thread on here quite some time ago with the "steps". You might be able to access it in the recycle bin, not sure. In short, I did things similar to the exercises I propose. It might see like I am pulling those exercise ideas out of thin air, but they are all versions of something similar to what I did. I strongly believe in real-time, live account learning. I hit rock bottom, so I felt like either I do this or not. I really like the idea of the exercise I recently gave to Rearden. I think it might be better than what I did originally.

During your journey, I am sure you had a reflexion about how to reduce drawdown and psychological negative effect of losing trades especially when the price move in the opposite direction to your higher timeframe bias. What was train of thought and how you overpass not the fear of loss but how pass over this instinct human behavior trying to find a better way?

You are constantly trying to find a better way because you want success NOW. But every time you switch, you actually get further away. You have to make that real. Write it down every day, every time you want to go searching for something else... Physically write it out on paper that you are having the urge to find the "easy/better" way and abandoning something else. Ask why you are doing it. And write the answer. Ask again and again. Then close with the question, am I profitable doing this? Keep making it real and keep putting it in front of your face so you can't run from it. If you don't believe this paragraph simply ask yourself how did you get here talking to me?

Everything I post is essentially the sharing of a lesson in how to reduce drawdown... which directly and indirectly also lessons the pain of an unprofitable trade.

I can't tell you my reflections and then they work for you. I wish it worked that way. If it did, a bunch more people would be profitable. Rearden would be killing it by now. This is why I interact in the specific way I do. I am trying to get you to see and do things that will awaken emotions and "a-ha" moments in you. (the exercise I gave Rearden of taking every idea 2 and idea 3 trade and not closing until price doesn't match bias and taking profit at the challenge of a low/high is an example of this). If Rearden can do it, that exercise will teach lessons in price movement, drawdown, emotions, stop placement, entry, etc... but only if Rearden can do it and think about it. You saw Rearden take an Idea #1 this week. What did that have to do with the exercise I gave? The answer - NOTHING. It was contrary. BUT, it did show that Rearden has the capability of seeing a better than average opportunity, but Rearden is all jumbled right now. Not keeping it simple. Rearden can be profitable, just proved it. But Rearden's mind is still processing other junk and not looking at the charts in a simple way. I know this in Rearden, and you, and everyone else I have crossed paths with in the way all of you describe things.

How to find a better way... Your desire to make money has to overcome your desire to gamble. Your desire to be right has to be replaced with a desire to profitable. You have to do the exercises in real time for a long period of time AND think about them. It's hard and nobody does it. I did it. That's the difference.
Be bullish on you.
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