Gejordan Weekly Journal

Hii Rearden and Gejordan
That you very much, your comment reinforce my belief that even with simple rules as they can be as defined in post 945, it is widely open to personal interpretation and objectivity.

In my post 1173, I based my trade on trade idea #2, where Gejordan estimate that It is an aggressive entry and it is OK, but not OK unless I can explan.
See attached, I could have taken the same kind of setup in the 3 points marked on the chart
#1 - would have resulted in a loss.
#2 - Would not have been validated because the low was made during my night time, and also price made a new low between my trading hours (09h/18h)
#3 - Would not have been validated has price on marked one close below
I didn't took the trades as I only started to participate to the discussion from Wednesday.
While watching the picture attached, I just saw a similar setup which is the bar to the left yesterday top, but invalidated as price dropped and made another swing low.
and we have a similar setup whit the top made 3 hours ago waiting for 2 close below to be validated.

In both your comments, you mean that a swing must be more than 3 bars, haven't seen any reference about it. important point subject to interpretation, isn't it?
That was the reason of my first question in post 1155 "What makes your consider that price move above a high and stay above?"

Don't be mistaken, I am not here to argue or being picky or trolling the thread,

In fact it helps me to write down my thoughts and reinforce my recent understanding that more than the system is the way you apply the rules that may give a chance of success as long as the rules are crystal clear and without any possible interpretation, because it is from this possibility of interpretation that our mind will use to make us doubt or make excuses or whatever needed to justify the made decision.

It also helps to understand or at least point at where are my flows and the reasons why I am still in the process search, probably because as when I was young and studying accounting and programming in 1982, in order to write a program in Cobol or Basic we had to iterate all the steps.

Was re-reading the post 945 and again, What do you consider a retrace to the 50 line, so many questions could be asked.
Gejordan your post 1077 you mention "2. At end of day, see if price is moving in the direction of the bias. If so, I can trade, if not, no trade."
What do you consider end of day, you are in the US, I am in Europe and Rearden in Asia, so we are all in different time zone with different price behaviour over the different sessions.

May be I am asking myself to many questions, and probably it is one of the reason.

Thank you listening to my moanings.

Gerald

There is no subjectivity or personal interpretation in my rules
My rule is find a bias and trade in the direction of it. If no bias, trade in the direction of the move. That's it. NO personal interpretation, NO subjectivity.

There IS subjectivity and personal interpretation...
IN THEIR APPLICATION.

Even when we code, we can SUBJECTIVELY decide what we use in the code. Using a Simple49 versus a Simple50 is personal preference and subjective. Code it, and its not.

You are over-intellectualizing the obvious and it will ultimately drive you insane. I have met countless traders that suffer from mental and physical breakdowns because they get themselves lost in the weeds. I am obviously not implying this is going to happen to you, just illustrating you are making the simple.. complex. Because you think it should be complex and needs simplifying. It can be simple without the runaround. Simple, but not easy.

Your post reads as someone looking to validate their bias. Stop trying so hard and let it be obvious and simple. Won't be easy, just obvious and simple.

Good Post Biker. (This response is for anyone stopping by, biker's post just inspired it.)

Part 1.
Of course there is subjectivity in trading.

It is the very reason most people fail in trading. They can't and/or don't want anything left open to interpretation. Why do you think people buy indicators, systems, follow gurus, why the trading systems thread is so packed? It is the attempt to avoid subjectivity. They want someone or something to say enter here and exit here. They want it to be profitable and ultimately, they don’t give a frog’s fat one about understanding it. They may try to understand it, or say they want to understand it, but if it’s profitable they aren’t going to stop doing it. And they won’t stop doing it if it is unprofitable (until they go broke) as long as they have certainty.

What science knows about the human brain is that it wants certainty. Understanding that to your core is the first step in being profitable at trading and understanding humans.

I started this series on Post 945. Price had been moving up and I said I wanted to trade down. It was the starting point. On that Sunday I told everyone I had a short bias and how I would trade that week. I gave three ideas for people to think about on their own.

I said – Idea #1 – Use your system and take shorts
· I gave this rule because by just having a bias and only taking trades from a system that matches bias will instantly improve the system.
I said – Idea #2 – Let price break a swing, have it stay below the swing, and then trade on a retrace.
I said – Idea #3 – Let price get below the Simple50 and then trade on a retrace to it.
· I gave idea #2 and #3 to introduce the idea of trading when movement matches bias.

In summary, We had a point in time and I started by saying trade with bias and good things will happen. If you read the post looking for a “code-able” EA, or certainty, or me telling you when to enter or exit, you’ll miss the point of the post. Almost everyone leaves at that point and its fine. I know I have done my job helping others by putting the thought of bias in their head. Those that stick around get more.

As the weeks pass, we saw different situations and combinations of bias and price movement. I talked about those as they happened.

I CANT control price. I CAN control my rules.

Part 2.

Let's look at the APPLICATION of the rules as we experience different price movement and patterns. Price movement which we will never control.

1. Get a bias. SUBJECTIVE. How do we overcome this, just pick a way to get bias and stick with it. EVIL TRADING BRAIN will say "what if there is a better way" "I'm not good enough to come up with a bias". Just get one. I knew Reardon or someone would eventually ask how I get bias. I got asked it multiple times in my community. Why? Because everyone is looking for certainty. I am promoting that BIAS doesn't really matter. Following the bias and its consequences DOES matter.

2A. Use your own system. (Idea #1) The very definition of subjectivity. Not much more to say. I am saying, don't bother reading anything I post except my weekly Bias and see if using a bias with your rules helps... I promote that any person's system doesn't matter... Following your system DOES matter.

2. Wait for price movement to match bias. (Ideas #2 and #3) SUBJECTIVE. I am using swings and simple50. You could use simple51. Why is my way of seeing a swing better. It's not. I am not the gold standard. There are countless ways to determine direction. It's all subjective. But.. the simple way I showed can be profitable and that is certain. EVIL TRADING BRAIN will say how do I know what a swing is for sure. What about elliot waves, what about the turtles, what about 52 week hi lo, what about EMA26.5, what about SMA57. This leads to paralysis. PICK ONE. Obviously I am going to show one that works. I am promoting that picking the measure for price direction doesn't matter. Following your chosen method DOES matter.

3. Enter Trade. SUBJECTIVE. Of course this is subjective. The very fact I gave you 3 ideas means it's subjective. Hell, I've spent 3 months showing that any of the three could work. EVIL TRADING BRAIN will say "well which one is best" "which one should I use" "2 pips below the pivot/sma or 4 pips or right on it"? JUST PICK ONE. What I am promoting is that what you pick as your entry method doesn't matter. Following trading from near or around your chosen place DOES matter.

Part 3

But It's Not Certain Enough

Sorry. Do you think I woke up one day and said "Here is how I am going to find bias and here is the exact way to enter and here is the exact thing to use and I KNOW i will be profitable". NO!

I did the work. I stopped jumping around, looking for complexity, gambling, believing gurus blindly, and started using my brain. I have posted versions of this a few times over the last almost decade, but here it is again for new people.

I realized a few things. One - I sucked at trading and I was unprofitable. Two - I am going broke giving other people money. Three - I don't control price and nothing I put on a chart changes that.

So I stopped buying things to put on charts and stopped paying people to help me lose money slower than what i could lose it myself and I thought about uncertainty.

I made it simple.
Price moves. I know why theoretically, but I will never know when or where because I am DUMB MONEY.
If price moves, I need to figure out ways to lose as little as possible in case it moves the way I don't want it to. And that's it.

Trading is nothing more than that. It really isn't. The rest is us just getting in our own way and dealing with our brain's shortcomings when it comes to trading.

Biker, everything you put in that post is you getting in your own way. You might not agree, and that's ok, but I have spent many years on here reading the same thing and listening to the same stuff in my community from people who try to trade. Nothing you said is different from what I have said at some point.

Some examples...
I based my trade on trade idea #2 - No you didn't. You didn't trade a retrace.

In both your comments, you mean that a swing must be more than 3 bars - I've posted on what I think a minimum swing should be for this, I've marked up a picture and its not a hard 3 bars

What makes your consider that price move above a high and stay above? - Answered it a few times for this type of trading

reinforce my recent understanding that more than the system is the way you apply the rules that may give a chance of success as long as the rules are crystal clear and without any possible interpretation - you are intellectualizing, just code something and you'll have this. Adjust until it becomes profitable. Stop looking. Your paragraph tells you what you believe needs to be done. You aren't listening to yourself.

What do you consider a retrace to the 50 line - Doesn't matter, pick one, hit the line, 1 short, 2 short, 2 over 10 over when it hits it and you fart. ITS NOT THE LINE... IT'S REDUCING THE RISK... I've said this, the line ain't magic.

What do you consider end of day, you are in the US, I am in Europe and Rearden in Asia, so we are all in different time zone with different price behaviour over the different sessions. - You could look at my chart and posts and figure it out in about 5 minutes or less. Your trying to confirm your bias, not learn something. And I ain't making a salary posting here, figure it out.

May be I am asking myself to many questions - Yes and No. Questions are good. You are asking the wrong questions... questions that you already have answers to, or questions you want answered in a way to confirm what you want to hear, questions with answers you can figure out as an adult, questions that don't even matter because the point is flying by.

PART 4 - In conclusion.

THE LAST POST IS NOT ABOUT BIKER. Biker is awesome for posting and if you'll read the exchange it will hit home to those of you ready to hear it.

All that list of what he posted is what I used to do, it's what most of the FF participants do, and if you are an unprofitable trader... it is what YOU do (or a close version of it.)

Hi Gejordan,

I saw your post 1182 and got the feeling you were upset by my post 1181, and to which I was also, when you were saying There is no subjectivity or personal interpretation in my rules
My rule is find a bias and trade in the direction of it. If no bias, trade in the direction of the move. That's it. NO personal interpretation, NO subjectivity.

While I started to reply, you were writing the 2 consecutive posts and therefor it change the context.
I agree entirely on the post above
For my view in the circumstance of the exercise in this thread.
1. Get a bias - non subjective - as you said down for the week
Price matching bias?
2A. Subjective, of course if I choose my rules
2. SMA 50 - non subjective as defined by you
Swing low - subjective - as not clearly define and as marked with 3 cyan arrows in your chart as the second one for me doesn't show the same pattern.
had you mention the what is a swing for you, we would not have the discussion.
3. Subjective of course - as per rules "Look for trades from location (RN,BRN, Fib level etc.)Look for long trades from location (RN,BRN, Fib level etc.)"

So basically any trade can fit in Idea #1 as decide what kind of swing to use and where to enter as long as I continue to use the same conditions.

I was frustrated when you said "That's it. NO personal interpretation, NO subjectivity." and that I was trying to validate my bias.
I am not at all, just trying to have clear rules that I can not interpret in order to do the exercise for the following week and see where it drives.
after that everyone is free to establish his own rules and stick to them.
So for next week I will apply
1. Bias determined by you
2. 5 3candles swing must be broken by 2 consecutive close
3. Entrer trade at the nearest 20/50/80/00 level above broken swing for long or below for short
4. Stop above previous higher lower swing

Have a great week-end

I am not upset at all. Quite the contrary. I used to make videos years ago so you could hear that I wasn't angry and we wouldn't have to interpret text into emotion, but I got tired of doing videos. I promise to be direct, honest and respectful. No fluff. So sometimes it comes across like I am a gigantic a**hole. But I am trying to help. So try your best to trust that I am trying to help because I fully respect that you wouldn't be here if things were going great in trading.

I also know that you won't believe and/or agree with everything I say. This will frustrate you. That is a good thing. It means we are getting somewhere.

Now to your post...

I don't care what you think is subjective or not. It's academic. And I don't agree with what you typed. And it doesn't matter. I am trying to impress upon you that you are missing the point. You are looking in this thread and I would guess in your past all others for what amounts to a code-able EA. That's not this thread. This tells me you haven't really read this thread from 945 to here with an open mind, reading for understanding, thinking about what you read, dumping all the garbage that has made you unable to be successful at trading forex. You talked to me above about the cyan arrows being swings... those aren't swings. I call them pauses in price. You said I didn't define swings, sure I have. Not my fault you didn't read and study and do the work.

From 945, I have been telling a story. I stated my intention and told a story of how a new trader or unprofitable trader can successfully trade. Whether each person can "hear" the story depends on the gunk they bring with them. Your gunk.. well you told us...

One of the first things you put out here on this thread was:
"I know the rules, some, too many rules,
Why the hell am I not applying them? probably because I hate repetitiveness and also see the flaws of the rules and try the fix it before to apply them."

This was awesome. Don't run from it and don't fight it. Embrace it. You know you are your own worst enemy, you said it yourself in the above quote. So drop the ego and listen. To yourself at a minimum.

You know the rules... what rules? Tell me what those "rules" are? I say that if you know the rules, you'd be teaching class. What are the flaws in my rules? I need to fix something? I've said exactly what I was going to do - BEFORE I DID IT. Your response is that it wasn't granular enough. Exact enough. You are, in essence, sitting here trying to tell me I need to fix something. Be more granular and exact. That you thought they were too subjective? Sound familiar. Maybe you actually need to look elsewhere.

The RULES of trading. #1 Make profit. Don't be right, be profitable. I've shown you in here that having a bias, trade in direction of bias, can be profitable. I took the simple50 and retrace trades. They made profit. Anyone could have taken them.

On occasion, I used discretion, you know why... cause I am not a dumbass. Rule #2, don't be a dumbass, use discretion/experience. Can you code discretion.. Nope. It comes from the doing and the wanting to learn and seeing the chart with clear eyes. Not the eyes of someone that just says, I know the rules let me change them before I use them. Hey, if you can code an algo that is profitable free from experience... I'm in. But even some of the best algos are coded to be used in specific situations (i.e., bias)

And know that you aren't the first person to arrive at a system and be disgusted by the repetitive, nonsensical, b.s. that the guru can't or doesn't do themselves. I once watched a guy, WHO IS STILL SELLING CRAP to this very day, lose half his account because he was sure an event would send the Yen a certain direction. He never closed it and lost his ass. He was a moving average trader and decided he was a yen expert one day. I have watched and listened to so many people not follow their rules it's the norm, not the exception. I've spent so much money on experts and gurus.. it hurt. If you think they are making money from your subscriptions and not from trading, it's because they are. If you think they are hiding horrible trades, they are. If you think they aren't following their own rules, its because they are not. If you think the vast majority of thread starters on FF are profitable, you are delusional. If they can't follow their own rules, they aren't profitable.

So, you have stated some rules. Are these good rules? Do they need fixing? You picked those, 5 candle swing and trade from 00/20/50/80, stop above last swing. Those are THE RULES? The best of all your experience to this point?

Think about it and commit to trading it and showing us how it goes. I promise, just from the start, trading the rules you have listed will be better applied with a bias than in isolation. More profitable, less un-profitable. Either way, if you can stick with it, you might learn something if you can get out of your own way.

Also, note that you didn't pick to trade idea #2 or idea #3. You picked idea #1. You didn't choose to do the exercise I gave Rearden, you came up with your own idea. Why? I already know the answer. What do you think it is?

Thanks Ge, Very useful Post to learn. All your trades makes sense. I have been waiting for the lower break of conservative swing and didnt take the last two shorts.

I have a question on the first short you took. It was more of an idea #3b trade right (Idea #3b - These are tougher on no bias weeks. If price goes below the Simple 50 and I decide to use that for a early short signal, I still wouldn't go heavy unless price made it back to the top of a range and I could lower risk. (I think the underlined portion is why you didnt take the first arrow but waited for the second arrow this week?)

To understand it further, when you say "My next one was an idea #3. We have a directional bias week, I woke up and price broke simple50 in the direction I wanted to go so entered on pullback to it. Note the exact situation. Other simple50 trades we take are already supported by the swings, this one was not. I believe the last time we had this was the first week."

The break you are referring to is is the one indicated by the yellow arrow in my charts right?

Thanks Ge, Very useful Post to learn. All your trades makes sense. I have been waiting for the lower break of conservative swing and didnt take the last two shorts.
Nothing wrong with that, just recognize that the trade I took up there is the trade I took from the time of your picture back in week one.

I have a question on the first short you took. It was more of an idea #3b trade right (Idea #3b - These are tougher on no bias weeks. If price goes below the Simple 50 and I decide to use that for a early short signal, I still wouldn't go heavy unless price made it back to the top of a range and I could lower risk. (I think the underlined portion is why you didnt take the first arrow but waited for the second arrow this week?)
Yes, the first was a short from the top of the range instead of right away from the simple50. I might have been wrong, and that would have been fine. I would have just caught the next one if it dropped. I used discretion. This is what much of the conversation with Biker is about. Biker wants crystal clear rules with no interpretation. I don't want to see Biker tighten that screw too much. It sounds great and makes the brain feel real good, but you have to include the missing component... discretion/seeing the chart/using that screen time that has been accrued over all the years of trading to benefit you.

In this instance, I want to be short. But experience has taught me with what is happening on the chart there is a good chance price will go to the top and I can short from there. With so much less risk.

So what if you don't have as much time as me at the chart or you don't see it like I do. No problem. The other option was a small position from the simple50 and then an entry up top. Doing that, you still could have been out at breakeven or small profit or loss exiting where I did.

To understand it further, when you say "My next one was an idea #3. We have a directional bias week, I woke up and price broke simple50 in the direction I wanted to go so entered on pullback to it. Note the exact situation. Other simple50 trades we take are already supported by the swings, this one was not. I believe the last time we had this was the first week." The break you are referring to is is the one indicated by the yellow arrow in my charts right?

The shorts from the top are exactly what we were waiting for. It was just like the first week I came back on back in Post 945. Price moving up, down bias, price goes below simple50 and trade when it comes back to it. Then also take an entry at top of range if it gets there. This one is great, it challenged the low, got below the simple50, so good odds for some range here.

The break you are referring to is is the one indicated by the yellow arrow in my charts right?
Not 100% sure I am clear on what you are asking here, but the point I was trying to make is note the difference when price is already moving in our direction and we trade from the simple50 versus when price changes direction for the first time to match our bias.

Now, new stuff.
As for the exercise I gave you, I would have liked to see you jump in out of the gate from the simple50 on Sunday. Also have an entry up top somewhere. Go through the pain of the drawdown and enter again the next day right away. Then look at the chart as a whole and say, "great entry was top of range and price is back to low of a short term range.. let me get out at breakeven small profit.

Next day would have been back in up move, nothing to do. Then I would have liked to see you enter just like I did. Pullback to simple50 and top of range again, exiting where I did.

No trade Friday because you'd be up for the week.

That would have been a perfectly executed week of exercise trading so you could have felt the emotions of the price movement.

Hi Ge, Sorry for pestering again with questions.

"Not 100% sure I am clear on what you are asking here,"

Let me explain what I was thinking. You said" My next one was an idea #3. We have a directional bias week, I woke up and price broke simple50 in the direction I wanted to go so entered on pullback to it."

Directional bias this week was Short. and you said... "I woke up and price broke simple50 in the direction I wanted to go'. The direction we wanted to go was down and the price broke UP. isnt it ? I didnt see the break below simple 50.....So in Post 1189, I was asking ..."When you say the price broke S50, is that the break i showed in yellow arrows.)

We came to a SHORT bias week after a NO bias week (but bullish move in play)and I didnt see (or I couldnt) spot a break and hold below the last swing low to shift my bias to SHORT. So I was in wait mode. Orange arrow is where I saw an aggressive break down and price supporting our short BIAS for the first time this week. Kindly correct me if I didn't see it correctly.

Regarding the new exercise, I didn't enter the short from S50 on Sunday for the same reason above [NO bias week to Short BIAS week but bullish move still in play and price haven't changed to short side yet by closing and holding below). I believe the entry you mentioned (Fore new exercice)was where i have marked Ent#1 and Ent#2.

I was doing the new exercise you gave me during the weekend by plotting the white lines and taking trades from every pivot and S50 (in a simulator)until that white line broke and I could see the huge retracement price often did in some cases without changing the direction. I also plotted some arrows(without actually placing the SL in the simulation) where I would place my stop and seeing the price turn after it hit my imaginary SL but respect the white line(the main swing and move in play). This exercise helps a lot in understanding the natural movement of price. Currently, I am still doing it and learning from different scenarios. I will do the exercise in the coming weeks live and post the results.

Thanks Again Ge.

Hi Ge, Sorry for pestering again with questions. "Not 100% sure I am clear on what you are asking here," Let me explain what I was thinking. You said" My next one was an idea #3. We have a directional bias week, I woke up and price broke simple50 in the direction I wanted to go so entered on pullback to it." Directional bias this week was Short. and you said... "I woke up and price broke simple50 in the direction I wanted to go'. The direction we wanted to go was down and the price broke UP. isnt it ?

On the 16th when I woke up price had gone below the simple50 and retraced to it. Down bias/Down move as applies for idea #3.

I didnt see the break below simple 50.....So in Post 1189, I was asking ..."When you say the price broke S50, is that the break i showed in yellow arrows.) We came to a SHORT bias week after a NO bias week (but bullish move in play)and I didnt see (or I couldnt) spot a break and hold below the last swing low to shift my bias to SHORT. So I was in wait mode. Orange arrow is where I saw an aggressive break down and price supporting our short BIAS for the first time this week. Kindly correct me if I didn't see it correctly. Regarding the new exercise, I didn't enter the short from S50 on Sunday for the same reason above [NO bias week to Short BIAS week but bullish move still in play and price haven't changed to short side yet by closing and holding below).

Wasn't sure if you were using conservative or aggressive swings. If conservative, then no issue not taking the first one.

I believe the entry you mentioned (Fore new exercice)was where i have marked Ent#1 and Ent#2.

Yes, these are correct, and you shouldn't have taken if you saw us in an up move still.

I was doing the new exercise you gave me during the weekend by plotting the white lines and taking trades from every pivot and S50 (in a simulator)until that white line broke and I could see the huge retracement price often did in some cases without changing the direction. I also plotted some arrows(without actually placing the SL in the simulation) where I would place my stop and seeing the price turn after it hit my imaginary SL but respect the white line(the main swing and move in play). This exercise helps a lot in understanding the natural movement of price. Currently, I am still doing it and learning from different scenarios. I will do the exercise in the coming weeks live and post the results. Thanks Again Ge.

Do it live. You have no emotion in simulation.

Down Bias. I want to sell EU.

Obviously, I see the potential for price to break through and continue higher so caution at all times this week. By following rules last week and not trading Friday I can be most cautious this week and make price break that simple50 (idea #3) before even starting the week. Could go even further and make it break the simple50 AND challenge the low. Or even further and make it take out the swing and then start.

It's not about being right, it's not about being robotic... it's about making profit.

Now this is clear. I went back and reread what you wrote....thank you.

@LaBoca
It's like a job catching up reading all those posts.

rofl....

Oh man tell me about it. I have had to learn the art of reading again due to your postings

Wow great to see this thread still going. I've been in and out keeping an eye on it, and post 1182-1186 are pure gold. Not sure I've ever seen things broken down so succinctly. I know I spent years (and still occasionally go back to) over-intellectualizing the obvious and other things.

Anyway, been a bit crazy for me but starting to get back at the charts, and everytime I do, I look up what's the latest on GE's threads. Just took a short last night on EURCAD, entering at 1.5483, SL 1.5570 (over my monthly line), TP1 at 1.5410. TP1 was hit since entering and would like to see if this can get back down to the weekly line at 1.5208, however my SL is at BE on the second lot, and will see what the market gives me in the coming days, and adjust my stop accordingly. First chart shows the pin with wick through monthly line. I had a short bias leading up to this, as we were near the top of the recent range from about 1.5100 to 1.5500. So with being at top of range, as well as monthly level of interest, I had entered short. The second image shows zoomed in look at the trade, with top line showing my entry point and the line near bottom of current candle being where my TP1 was set.

With profit from the first lot in the bank, I'm now sitting with second at BE and will watch to see if we can push down towards the bottom of the range (weekly line is my current target, but will watch as things shape up). I can say that my trading improved greatly watching and learning from GE's threads, and the more I try to simplify my trading (have rules in place and work within that framework) the better my trading is. The other thing I'll say is don't be too quick to change your rules (or just put them on demo trades), as I've seen what I deem a great trade setup go poorly on rare occasions, and if I were to create enough rules to eliminate that 1 in 50 trade that goes bad, I'd end up eliminating 25 times when the same trade setup works. Interestingly, I find that when I work with a good plan (with infrequent slight tweaks based upon results from months of trades), rather than striving for the "perfect", my trading goes much better.

Edit: Second position came back and took me out at BE. Back to the charts looking for the next opportunity.

A good visual of what trading is. Along with more comment on bias and trusting yourself.


I get my own bias, but I have spoken about there being a multitude of ways to get bias. There are threads on FF that use planetary cycles. Use that... doesn't really matter. But here is a nice visual of a prior suggestion.

A MACD on a weekly. You can even do it a couple of ways. Trade short when value below zero, long when above. Or, as I marked on the left, go short when value is less than the week before, long in the opposite. On the left, when the value decreased, it kept decreasing for 6 months. Six months of getting short and a big move. On the right, I show it again but present day on the way up. Then there is the area between the two.

You can never hope to be successful until you settle in and decide on a way to trade. If you were jumping around, you missed both of the runs and probably getting killed in the middle.

So, what did it take to swing trade this successfully? Well, it took following your bias always. Trading when movement matched bias. Following bias makes it real easy to catch big moves when price runs. It also keeps you trading from the edges as price bounces up and down. 90% of that middle is a slow bouncing move down. If you bias short when value is under the 0, you were looking short for 2 years. Trust me, if you can maintain that discipline, you will start learning some real things about trading. But only if you zero in on something and not bounce around. Zero in and learn and think about it versus jumping from thing to thing, changing rules always, etc.

That's when you start growing an account.

So, one day I'll be off here again, so start figuring out how you will get bias for the week if I'm not providing it. I'll add an exercise. Put a MACD on a weekly and find 20 minutes on the weekend to go back and see where trades would have been from if you used it for bias instead of me.

Start with this last move. Go back to June 14th or May 24th and look long only. Do it to practice saying "I have a bias and here is the movement of price." Don't do it thinking it will teach you how to trade or believe in it. That won't happen. Doing it live will help you learn and connect the emotion and make the mistakes that emotion causes.

A local person is using MACD as to not rely on me for bias. I was talking with him and took the MACD trades this week with him when price went long again. I was explaining that it isn't magical because I enter it and that he is capable of doing it. I could still be in these trades if I wanted, but I closed them out. Doesn't matter, I followed the rules of trading #1... I made profit. I followed my rules.. go with a bias when price movement matches the bias. That existed, the entries didn't really matter. It mattered that I took them and wasn't a dumbass. That they were in my emotional risk tolerance.

(as a side note, some shorts also shown that you could have taken Rearden as part of your exercise)

Thanks Ge, for the post. I will work on the exercise. I think it should help with confidence to choose a way to identify a bias and stick with that.

I took the #1 short with a small position. but my target was missed by couple of pips. I Closed it when price went up and closed above. I should have been a bit more careful and put a tighter target or close it on those small inverted pin candles like what you did since the price had potential to break higher.

That outcome is fine. Glad you took it. Did you look at the chart at any point during the three candles that happened down near your target? If not around during that time, do you see why this type of trade would be worth passing on if you know you wouldn't be around? I put an alert in that area and it went off and I closed before I went to sleep. I took it with you to help you along with the exercise, but what I have learned in my years of doing these exercises and trading, is that I am willing to miss this setup because I will likely be asleep. I can wake up and see if there is something to take in the AM, or if the move has happened and I need to wait. Doing this exercise will sort those things out for you.

It does look like you closed before confirmation of the up move. Let the up move confirm, then close for this exercise. I want you to experience the waiting game of will it come back in or go higher. This emotion and related decisions are important. Especially for you in what I know about the history and description of your trades.