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  • #2,561
  • Jul 13, 2020 8:45am Jul 13, 2020 8:45am
Natural Gas spot price reached record low in the first half of 2020
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,562
  • Jul 13, 2020 7:09pm Jul 13, 2020 7:09pm
Why The Hydrogen Boom Is Good News For Natural Gas

https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Ene...tural-Gas.html

After decades of stagnation and multiple false dawns, the hydrogen economy is finally taking off, with some experts predicting that hydrogen could become a globally-traded energy source, just like oil and gas. A growing number of countries and industries are proactively investing in hydrogen technologies; none, however, can rival the EU's zeal.
The European Union has set out its new hydrogen strategy as part of its goal to achieve carbon neutrality for all its industries by 2050.
In a big win for the hydrogen sector, the EU has outlined an extremely ambitious target to build out at least 40 gigawatts of electrolyzers within its borders by 2030, or 160x the current global capacity of 250MW. The EU also plans to support the development of another 40 gigawatts of green hydrogen in nearby countries that can export to the region by the same date.
The EU aims to have at least 6 gigawatts of clean hydrogen electrolyzers installed by 2024.
Good news for natural gas companies: Although Brussels clearly favors "green" hydrogen produced by renewable energy, it has signaled that it will also encourage the development of "blue" hydrogen that is produced from natural gas paired with carbon capture and storage (CCS).
Green vs. Blue Hydrogen
The EU has said that hydrogen will play a key role in helping decarbonize manufacturing industries and the transport sector. The organization says it will support blue hydrogen during a "transition phase," although it has not mentioned it in its topline targets.
Although natural gas producers would no doubt prefer centralized blue hydrogen, they will not be complaining too much since natural gas infrastructure can easily be repurposed to carry hydrogen.
The latest decision by European policymakers follows years of hard lobbying by more than 30 energy companies including ExxonMobil, ENI, Shell, Total, Equinor, and other European natural gas companies which have called for a "technology-neutral strategy," arguing that renewables such as wind and solar cannot grow fast enough to power the "clean hydrogen" sector to meet decarbonization goals. The signatories have claimed the green hydrogen industry is currently too small to spark the growth of a large-scale European hydrogen economy in the space of just a decade.
Although a colorless gas, hydrogen gets referred to in colorful terms including blue, brown, green, and grey depending on how it's produced. The nomenclature used by market research firm Wood Mackenzie classifies it as brown when it's produced via gasification of coal or lignite or grey when it's made through steam methane reformation, typically using natural gas as the feedstock. These two are currently the leading methods of producing industrial hydrogen. Both processes generate varying amounts of C02 though they are still considerably cleaner than burning fossil fuels.
Green hydrogen projects
Last week, U.S. industrial chemicals giant Air Products announced that it would build a giant hydrogen project in Saudi Arabia using 4GW of renewable power, making it the world's largest green hydrogen project. The plant will produce 650 tons of green hydrogen daily, enough to run ~20,000 hydrogen-fueled buses. The $5 billion plant will be jointly owned by Air Products and Saudi Arabia's ACWA Power and Neom.
Last month, Germany committed to invest €9B (about $10.2B) in hydrogen technology with electrolysis capacity of 1GW over the next two decades. Germany--which currently consumes 55 TWh of CO2-intensive hydrogen in its steel, chemical and fertilizer industries, each year-- wants to gradually get rid of grey fossil hydrogen generated from natural gas and instead scale green hydrogen produced from wind and solar energy.
Other countries with big hydrogen commitments include Australia, China, France, Norway, South Korea, and the UK, among others.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,563
  • Jul 14, 2020 8:21pm Jul 14, 2020 8:21pm
Deeper liquidity would help stable price.....

Shell Makes Bet on Digital LNG Trading With GLX Investment

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...source=twitter

Royal Dutch Shell Plc, the world’s biggest liquefied natural gas merchant, is making a bet on the trade’s digital future by taking a minority investment in the online platform developer GLX Digital.
GLX is among a handful of companies using web-based trading to modernize the world of physical commodities and help deepen liquidity. Since creating its online LNG auction hub, the Perth, Australia-based company has shifted toward helping customers create their own digital trading systems.
Shell is the highest profile investor in GLX, which also include Australia’s Woodside Petroleum Ltd. and Malaysia’s Petroliam Nasional Bhd. It dominates global LNG trade, handling about 22% of the world’s volume, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Neither Shell nor GLX would disclose the value of the investment or size of the stake.
“This digital platform is a natural step in the continued evolution of the global LNG market and as a leading LNG player, we are keen to be part of this,” Steve Hill, an executive vice president for Shell, said in a statement. “The sophistication of the GLX software in combination with the high caliber and quality of the management team gives GLX a strong base for the future.”
Founded in 2015, closely held GLX has about 23 employees and is trying to grow to 40 in the next year, Chief Executive Officer Damien Criddle said by phone. It has about 75 companies signed up, and revenue from subscriptions is up approximately 600% year-on-year and is “in the seven figures,” he said, without providing further details. The company isn’t profitable yet as it focuses on growing and eventually expanding into other commodity sectors.
Criddle said the company’s shift away from controlling its own online LNG marketplace and toward helping companies build their own has resonated with traders, who prize the privacy of their deals.
“We’re digitalizing the LNG chain, but we’re not standing in the middle collecting data,” Criddle said. “What became clear to us is that while our customers like data, they don’t like sharing their own data, and we respect that.”
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,564
  • Jul 14, 2020 11:28pm Jul 14, 2020 11:28pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} $2.00 (50 EMA of August contract) is a good short term target I believe...... By the way, MT5 is a poor platform for futures trading. MT4 & 5 are both designed for forex. {image} (barchart.com)

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,565
  • Jul 15, 2020 9:10pm Jul 15, 2020 9:10pm
Shell’s Big Bet On Floating LNG May Be A Flop

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-...Be-A-Flop.html

It was the last of the large LNG projects that put Australia in the lead for global LNG exports. It was the biggest jewel in Shell's LNG crown. But this jewel hasn't produced any LNG since February, and its future is unclear.
The Prelude floating liquefied natural gas project, with an annual capacity of 3.6 million tons, began shipping LNG last June. The first cargo shipped more than eight years after the final investment decision was made, and two years after the FLNG vessel arrived at the site, one Wood Mac analyst pointed out at the time. In February this year, production was stopped following a technical problem.
Production at the world's largest FLNG installation still hasn't been restored, and it remains unclear when this will happen. Building it and putting it into operation cost between $12 and $17 billion, according to external estimates. Now, there are concerns that it may flop.
The gas market situation is difficult enough. Just like in oil, there is a substantial glut in natural gas, and demand is lagging far behind. According to Rystad Energy, global natural gas output is set for a 2.6-percent decline this year because of the coronavirus pandemic. Next year, demand should begin to improve, driven by the low prices currently plaguing the sector. But that's only if the pandemic goes away for good and without a fight, which at the moment is not happening.
In this situation, it may not be that bad that Prelude is not operating at the moment. There is an oversupply of LNG, prices are low, and Shell said in a recent update that it will take a hit because its 2019 term sales contracts for LNG were tied to oil prices.
That hit may be nothing compared to what Prelude may need to break even, at least according to analysts from Goldman Sachs quoted by Tim Treadgold in an article for Forbes. According to them, the commercial breakeven price for gas produced at Prelude is as much as $20 per thousand cubic feet. This compares with prices between $2 and $3 per thousand cubic feet in April in the United States.
The difference is impressive, and it certainly would explain why, as Treadgold notes, Shell is in no hurry to restart operations at Prelude.
The question is whether it would become profitable at all, it seems. The current glut will clear in the not too distant future. This is what most LNG market watchers agree on. Gas—and LNG—has enjoyed growing demand as a replacement for coal in power generation, and after the current crisis passes, demand will likely once again start to increase. But supply is increasing, too.
Last year, according to Shell's LNG Outlook 2020, saw a record number of new LNG capacity additions as the industry raced to secure a spot in the long-term LNG market. And more capacity is coming, too, despite the current challenges. Just last month, French Total secured $15 billion in financing for a new LNG project in Mozambique. Exxon delayed its final investment decision on the $30-billion Rovuma LNG project, also in Mozambique, until next year, but it has not canceled it. Shell itself recently said it was interested in more LNG projects, this time in Russia.
In other words, the long-term outlook for LNG remains positive. The outlook for Prelude, perhaps, not so much. With so much supply already on stream and more coming, competition in the space will only continue to intensify, meaning prices will remain low for longer. And if they do, Prelude may never reach its commercial breakeven level.
"With Prelude now producing LNG for more than a week and the first shipment of LNG being imminent, we are further de-risking the delivery of our $8-10 billion organic free cash flow target in 2020," Shell's Integrated Gas & New Energies Director, Maarten Wetselaar, told analysts in June 2019. Hopes were justifiably high and plans were ambitious. But nobody could have foreseen the coronavirus pandemic then.
Now, with 2020 demand forecasts in the trash and new ones pointing towards declines in everything energy-related, things are different. New plans will need to be made, although perhaps not as ambitious as previous ones. LNG will certainly have a lead part to play in the energy mix of the future. But what part costly floating LNG projects will play in LNG remains an open question.
Prelude is an impressive achievement, regardless of its problems. As the largest floating LNG facility in the world, it has a total capacity of 5.3 million tons of hydrocarbon liquids annually, including, besides the LNG, 1.3 million tons of gas condensate and 400,000 tons of liquefied petroleum gas. Floating LNG was to be a game-changer: boosting the efficiency of gas production by adding the processing to the place of extraction. But now it has to prove it is cost-competitive with other, more traditional approaches to LNG production.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,566
  • Jul 15, 2020 9:16pm Jul 15, 2020 9:16pm
https://www.natgasweather.com
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,567
  • Jul 16, 2020 3:38am Jul 16, 2020 3:38am
We may have much higher Oil & Gas price sooner or later....

California’s Top Oil Driller Files for Bankruptcy Protection

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...witter-markets

California Resources Corp. filed for bankruptcy, kicking off what could turn into the next wave of collapses among oil drillers and the businesses that depend on them.
The company joins more than 200 oil explorers that have filed for court protection since 2015, and more may be coming in a matter of weeks. Denbury Resources Inc. and Noble Corp. missed their July debt payments, and Chaparral Energy Inc. asked lenders for more time, setting them on course for a possible default.
With oil prices hovering around $40 a barrel, the industry simply isn’t able to support debts taken on when prices were near peak levels. California’s biggest crude producer has been weighed down by massive borrowings since its spinoff from Occidental Petroleum Corp. in late 2014, right at the start of the previous downturn in the crude market.
Low levels of cash and stricter state drilling regulations added to the pressure on California Resources, despite a $320 million investment from Tom Barrack Jr.’s Colony Capital Inc. last year.
The company said it owed more than 50,000 creditors about $6.1 billion, according to a Chapter 11 petition filed in federal court in Houston.
Creditor Backing
The bankruptcy is designed to reduce debt and other obligations by more than $5 billion, the company said in a statement. The proposed restructuring agreement is backed by about 84% of term-loan lenders who hold debt issued in 2017, and 51% of the company’s 2016 lenders. The company’s joint venture partner, Ares Management also backs the proposal.
To pay for the restructuring and to keep operating during the bankruptcy, the company will borrow about $1 billion from a group of existing creditors, according to the statement. Part of the money will be used to refinance a 2014 revolving credit facility.
Many investors have shunned producers operating outside of the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, the most prolific U.S. oil patch. Even before the most recent price crash, American drillers were increasingly struggling to attract capital amid market volatility and growing doubts about their ability to generate returns for investors.
Covid-19
More roadblocks appeared this year as the Covid-19 pandemic prompted widespread lockdowns that decimated global demand, while Saudi Arabia and Russia battled for market share before finally reaching an agreement with other members of the OPEC+ group to cut production. While oil prices have recovered from the extreme lows seen in April, they remain at a level where many American producers are struggling to achieve free cash flow.
The company’s bankruptcy law firm will be Sullivan & Cromwell, assisted by Vinson & Elkins. Perella Weinberg Partners will act as investment banker, while Alvarez & Marsal North America will provide restructuring advice.
The case is California Resources Corporation, 20-33568, U.S. Bankruptcy Court, Southern District of Texas, Houston.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,568
  • Jul 16, 2020 7:58am Jul 16, 2020 7:58am
Quoting heispark
Warren Buffett Makes $10 Billion Natural Gas Purchase https://www.barrons.com/articles/nas...ry-51593779400 Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is buying Dominion Energy’s natural gas storage and transmission assets in a deal worth a total of $9.7 billion, the company said in a release Sunday. Once the deal closes in the fourth quarter of 2020, Berkshire Hathaway’s (ticker: BRK.A) energy subsidiary will gain ownership of 7,700 miles of natural gas pipelines, vast...
Buffett Sees NatGas Sticking Around for Long Time

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/bu...ticle/?pgNum=0

(Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett’s $9.7 billion bet on natural gas looks even more contrarian today.
As Democrat Joe Biden unveils a staggering $2 trillion clean-energy plan—the most ambitious climate package ever offered by a presumptive presidential nominee—Buffett’s recent deal to buy Dominion Energy Inc.’s natural gas assets is a stark sign he’s expecting that the market’s shift away from fossil fuels won’t happen overnight.
The deal is “a bet that the future doesn’t come as fast as some people think,” said Jim Shanahan, an analyst who covers Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. at Edward Jones. “I think they want to be bigger in renewables, but it’s going to take time. In the meantime, they have to be able to provide power generation to their customers.”
On its face, Berkshire’s deal last week to buy gas assets including some 7,700 miles of pipelines seems risky even for a contrarian like Buffett. The energy industry is under increasing pressure from public officials and investors to abandon coal and natural gas. The use of natural gas for power generation, once hailed as a cleaner, cheaper alternative to coal, is now projected to drop to 36% in 2021 from 41% this year. In the last decade, prices for solar and onshore wind power have plummeted 90% and 70% respectively per megawatt-hour, according to BloombergNEF. Renewables now supply 20% of Americans’ power needs, up from 13% five years ago, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Biden’s plan, unveiled Tuesday, is an attempt to propel that surge, calling for spending $2 trillion for a clean-electricity economy and outlining a goal to have a carbon-free power sector by 2035.
But despite, or, more likely, because of those trends, Buffett is following his well-worn investing path—buying assets cheap in a buyers’ market. Natural gas futures in the U.S. dropped last month to their lowest point in 25 years. Plus, he’s one of the few buyers in a market where many utilities are searching for ways to get out. Political, regulatory and legal pressure have stymied the building of new pipelines and other infrastructure. Just last week, Dominion Energy and Duke Energy Corp. shelved a plan for a new gas pipeline crossing the Appalachian Trail in the face of stiff environmental opposition.
The prices and political pressure are likely to deter any new entrants, potentially allowing Buffett to reap natural gas’s historically good returns for some years coming.
“People assume we’re getting rid of coal, and then we’re getting rid of gas next,” said Noah Kaufman, a research scholar at Columbia’s Center on Global Energy Policy. But because gas is plentiful, cheap and provides round-the-clock electricity it’s “a lot harder to get rid of.”
The deal reinforces the idea that Berkshire, despite its expansive clean-energy portfolio, isn't a friend to environmentalists, who want a quicker shift to renewable energy. Berkshire routinely faces criticism for the company’s ties to fossil fuels. Buffett comes in at No. 3 on Bloomberg Green's list of billionaires whose fortunes derive largely from climate-damaging industries. He’s faced shareholder proposals from groups such as the Nebraska Peace Foundation urging Berkshire to disclose how climate change will affect its insurance subsidiaries, a significant chunk of the Berkshire empire.
“Berkshire has made some bad fossil fuel investments over the last few years and we expect this one to be a similarly bad investment, and ultimately a losing investment,” said Mark Kresowik, a regional director of the Sierra Club’s Beyond Coal campaign. (The Sierra Club has received funding from Bloomberg Philanthropies, the charitable organization founded by Michael R. Bloomberg, the majority owner of Bloomberg LP.)
Buffett has acknowledged the risks from the changing climate, saying in a shareholder letter in 2016 that it seemed “highly likely” that it would be a “major problem” for the world. But he has also previously said climate change can’t be a decisive factor in deciding investments.
Buffett didn’t respond to a request for comment. Berkshire Hathaway Energy declined to comment.
In explaining the Dominion Energy deal, Berkshire positioned natural gas as part of its strategy for sustainability. Its energy company called it a “reliable” and “less-carbon intensive” energy source in a slideshow. Of the company’s generation capacity at the end of 2019, about 36% was from wind and solar, while 32% came from natural gas and 26% coal. The remainder came from hydroelectric, geothermal, nuclear and other sources, according to a filing.
Buffett has gotten caught flat-footed in the past by burrowing into a market that was soon to be upended. Last year, he invested $10 billion to help finance oil-producer Occidental Petroleum Corp.’s bid for Anadarko Petroleum Corp. But the investment has struggled since because of a volatile market. Occidental slashed its common dividend when oil prices crashed earlier this year and ended up paying the dividend on Berkshire’s preferred stock in Occidental shares.
Buffett Sees NatGas Sticking Around for Long Time
Warren Buffett's $9.7 billion bet on natural gas looks even more contrarian today.
And Buffett’s been burned by volatile natural gas prices before. Berkshire bought about $2 billion of the debt of Energy Future Holdings, but ended up suffering a pretax loss of $873 million as that business filed for bankruptcy in 2014, according to his annual letter in 2014.
For now, Berkshire is simply betting that controlling a wide swath of the natural gas transmission lines will be profitable for the immediate future, climate issues aside.
“It’s wrong to say that he loves fossil fuels,” said Jigar Shah, president of clean-energy financier Generate Capital. “He’s just indifferent.”
--With assistance from Mark Chediak.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,569
  • Edited 7:12pm Jul 16, 2020 5:54pm | Edited 7:12pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} {image}
Struggling at daily 50 EMA.... Nat Gas pretty well respects 50 and 200 EMA. It will eventually hit 200 EMA soon anyway.
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,570
  • Jul 16, 2020 7:29pm Jul 16, 2020 7:29pm
Quoting heispark
Natural Gas Is Rebounding. 3 Stocks to Play the Move. - Barron's https://www.barrons.com/articles/nat...medium=twitter Very hot weather is expected to hit the U.S. next week, and that could be good news for natural gas producers.....
Five Value Stocks In Natural Gas

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-...tural-Gas.html

Over the past half decade, the natural gas sector has earned itself the dubious distinction as the place where money goes to die. Few sectors of the U.S. market have been destroying shareholder value faster than stocks of shale gas producers. After peaking in 2014, stocks of leading U.S. shale gas companies have badly cratered despite a sharp increase in production. According to Shaleprofile.com, shale gas production by the six leading companies in the sector has nearly doubled from 9.8 billion cubic feet (Bcf/d) in 2014 to 19 Bcf/d in 2020.
Unfortunately, this has hardly reflected on their share performance, with most tumbling more than 90% over the timeframe mainly due to their inability to turn a profit. The wider sector has not fared any better, with the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) tumbling 75% since 2018.
The disappointing performance shows no signs of moderating. Many are deeply in the red in the year-to-date thanks to stubborn supply overhang, a mild winter and a hobbled global economy due to the Covid-19 crisis.
Others, such as Chesapeake Energy and Whiting Petroleum, have filed for Chapter 11 with dozens more hanging on for dear life after natural gas prices collapsed to multi-decade lows.
Given this backdrop--coupled with the fact that some experts are warning that the sector might take years to reset--the majority of investors might prefer to steer clear of anything to do with natural gas or LNG.
On the opposite side of the spectrum, the U.S. shale gas sector might provide just the right bottom fishing opportunities for bold contrarian investors willing to bet on a rebound in natural gas prices.
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA has predicted that natural gas prices will begin to recover later in 2020, thanks to rising demand as economies across the globe gradually reopen as well as due to declining production.
The EIA sees Henry Hub spot prices recovering from the current $1.72/MBtu to an average of $2.46/MMBtu during Q4 2020. The energy watchdog has tapped the recovery to continue over the next year with gas prices averaging $3.10/MMB over the course of 2021 as production continues to fall.
Here are 4 shale gas stocks that might be good candidates for playing a natural gas rebound:
#1 EQT Corporation
YTD Returns: 14.6%
Headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, EQT Corporation (NYSE:EQT) is the largest U.S. shale gas producer. EQT Corp. engages in the production, gathering, and transmission of shale gas in the Appalachian area with 2019 production clocking in at about 4.1 bcf/d.
In May, EQT announced that it will temporarily curtail ~1.4B cfe/day of gross production, due to low natural gas prices. This means the company’s Q2 production is likely to clock in at 315B-335B cfe, below its previous guidance of 360B-380B cfe. Despite the drastic production cuts, EQT has said it expects no changes to its full-year production and financial guidance.
Early this month, JPMorgan chimed in with a bullish note on EQT saying the cancellation of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline could lead to cash flow upside as high as $68M for EQT. JPM has a $17 price target for the shares (~38% upside to current price).
#2 Range Resources Corporation
YTD Returns: 28.9%
Operating in the gas-rich Marcellus Formation in Texas, Range Resources (NYSE:RRC) is the 8th largest U.S. shale gas producer with 2019 production clocking in at about 2.3 bcf/d and 18.191 trillion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent in proved reserves.
The shares have been doing well mainly due to the company’s better outlook compared to its peers. Q1 revenue of $693.92M represented a -7.2% Y/Y growth and beat Wall Street’s consensus by $85.47M while GAAP EPS of $0.58 beat by $0.55.
Related: New Tech Puts Lithium Batteries Back In The Energy Storage Race
Earlier this month, investment firm MKM Partners upgraded RRC from a "neutral" rating to a "buy" rating with a $9 price target (~42% upside to current price), making it the only analyst to rate RRC a buy ( 7 Sell, 12 Hold). Investors are advised to tread carefully with short interest currently hovering at ~21% of outstanding shares.
#3 Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation
YTD Returns: -0.23%
Texas-based Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation (NYSE:COG) is the 4th largest shale gas producer in the United States. COG operates in the Marcellus Formation where it owns 173,000 net acres sitting on12.903 trillion cubic feet equivalent of proved reserves, all of which is natural gas.
During its Q1 earnings call, COG’s management revealed that it had hedged its April-October gas production at $2.10-$2.27/MMBtu but had chosen not to hedge 2021 production because it believed the market was underestimating the potential undersupply of natural gas. The company pointed out that a mere $0.10 improvement in the annual NYMEX price in 2021 would imply a $55 million improvement in the company’s incremental free cash flow.
In June, Stifel cut COG to sell on valuation concerns but remained positive on the company’s acreage quality, management and execution.
#4 Antero Resources
YTD Returns: -6.7%
Colorado-based Antero Resources (NYSE:AR) is the 3rd largest U.S. natural gas producer, pumping 3.2 bcf/d of natural gas from the Appalachian Basin where it owns 612,000 net acres of oil and gas properties sitting on 18,893 billion cubic feet (535 billion cubic meters) of estimated proved reserves.
The company has been plagued by worries regarding its ballooning debt which has now reached $6.2B, giving the company a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.95. However, the shares have climbed nearly 12% over the past two weeks after the company managed to clinch an overriding royalty interest transaction with Sixth Street Partners that will pump an additional $402M in its coffers. The deal will allow AR to pay down debt while also retaining the long-term upside of its core acreage position.
Nevertheless, short interest remains high at nearly 20%.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,571
  • Jul 17, 2020 7:59pm Jul 17, 2020 7:59pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} Struggling at daily 50 EMA.... Nat Gas pretty well respects 50 and 200 EMA. It will eventually hit 200 EMA soon anyway. {image} https://youtu.be/MHpQHnzoGbY
Nat Gas trading is pretty damn boring at the moment..... Patience!
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https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...markets-661672
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,572
  • Jul 17, 2020 9:09pm Jul 17, 2020 9:09pm
Total Secures $16 Billion In Funding For Key LNG Project

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...G-Project.html

French supermajor Total has secured as much as $16 billion in funding for its LNG project in Mozambique despite the supply glut and demand decline in the LNG market.
Among the participants in the financing are the Japan Bank for International Cooperation, which will provide as much as $3 billion for the project, and the African Development Bank, which will provide $400 million, Bloomberg reported, citing company statements.
Total’s Mozambique LNG project is the first one in the country to get a final investment decision. It will cost a total of between $20 billion and $23 billion, and will produce some 13 million tons of liquefied natural gas annually.
Finding sources of funding for new energy projects, both in oil and gas, has become quite challenging amid the pandemic, but the Total news suggests the long-term, if not the short-term, prospects for LNG remain bright, despite the current oversupply that has pushed LNG and gas prices so low some planned projects no longer make economic sense.
Some have been delayed, such as Exxon’s Rovuma project, which is a neighbor to Total’s Mozambique LNG. The supermajor postponed the FID on the Rovuma project in March as part of wider measures to combat the effects of the oil price crash, which spread to gas markets as well. Now, the company expects to make the final decision on the project in 2021.
Mozambique is turning into the latest hotspot for liquefied natural gas thanks to its abundant reserves: the Rovuma deposit alone has some 85 trillion cu ft of natural gas in place. The pandemic and the price rout has made the exploitation of these resources more difficult, at least for the time being, but as the world’s demand for the bridge fuel continue to rise over the long term, Mozambique may establish itself as one of the large LNG suppliers globally.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,573
  • Jul 17, 2020 9:42pm Jul 17, 2020 9:42pm
Global methane levels soar to record high

https://www.nature.com/articles/d415...&sf236037094=1

Global methane emissions have risen nearly 10% over the past two decades, resulting in record-high atmospheric concentrations of the powerful greenhouse gas.
In 2017, the latest year for which comprehensive data are available, global yearly emissions of the gas reached a record 596 million tonnes, according to scientists with the Global Carbon Project, which tracks changes in greenhouse gases.
Annual emissions have increased by about 50 million tonnes from the 2000–06 average, mainly driven by agriculture and the natural-gas industry, the scientists report in two papers1,2 on the global methane budget, released on 14 July. Atmospheric concentrations of the gas — 1,875 parts per billion last year — are now more than 2.5 times above pre-industrial levels (see ‘Record high’).
Methane, an odourless gas, comes from several natural and anthropogenic sources. It is an important contributor to global warming because it traps heat in the atmosphere. It is also involved in ground-level formation of ozone, which is an air pollutant and bad for human health.
Methane’s atmospheric lifetime — around 12 years — is much shorter than that of carbon dioxide, which lingers for more than a century. But methane is, per unit, more than 20 times as potent as CO2 as a greenhouse gas. That means that over a 20-year period, the global-warming potential of one tonne of atmospheric methane is similar to that of around 85 tonnes of CO2, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. When looking at its impact over 100 years, one tonne of methane is still equivalent to about 28 tonnes of CO2.
Roughly one-third of global methane emissions come from bacteria in natural wetlands that produce the gas when decomposing organic material. Agriculture and fossil-fuel sources each account for 20–25% of global methane emissions.
The scientists found no evidence that emissions from wetlands or other natural sources had increased substantially from the 2000–06 average. But emissions from agriculture — driven by rising red meat consumption in some parts of the world — rose by almost 12%, to 227 million tonnes in 2017. Fossil fuels — including natural-gas fields and leaking pipelines — contributed 108 million tonnes of methane emissions in 2017, a rise of 17%.
Livestock farming and oil and gas production are clearly two engines powering rising methane emissions, says Robert Jackson, an Earth-systems researcher at Stanford University in California who chairs the Global Carbon Project and is a co-author of both papers. “People may joke, but cows and other ruminants burp as much methane as the oil and gas industry,” he says.
The reports find that emissions have increased in most regions, and most markedly in Africa, the Middle East, China and South Asia. Europe is the only region where methane emissions seem to have dropped in recent years, thanks to declining cattle numbers and policy efforts to reduce emissions such as from landfills and manure.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,574
  • Jul 17, 2020 9:43pm Jul 17, 2020 9:43pm
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,575
  • Jul 20, 2020 1:03am Jul 20, 2020 1:03am
Quoting heispark
{image}
This is basically a calendar spread trading.

LNG Traders Dabble in Oil-Style Bet as Winter Demand Beckons

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...twitter-energy

Liquefied natural gas traders are expected to take a page from the oil market playbook: Storing the fuel at sea while prices languish near historic lows in a bet they can profit when demand peaks this winter.
The amount of LNG in storage aboard tankers, which is already at a seasonal high, is expected to expand further as firms take advantage of ample supply, cheap freight and a potentially lucrative pricing structure known as “contango,” according to analysts, traders and brokers surveyed by Bloomberg.
“When you look in September, October, November, we definitely see opportunities for price arbitrage,” said Paul Wogan, chief executive officer of GasLog Ltd, a ship owner.
LNG prices for winter are trading at a hefty premium to current rates
The trading strategy, used frequently in the oil market, tries to cash in on the contango structure, which arises when expected prices for the fuel months into the future are higher than now. In the Asian LNG market, benchmark futures for November delivery are trading at an 80% premium to current rates, which have wallowed near historic lows as the Covid-19 crisis slashes demand. Low freight rates are also incentivizing traders to buy now and sell later.
An explosion in futures and other derivatives for LNG is allowing traders to take advantage of the contango the way they have in oil for years, locking in higher prices and hedging their exposure if forward prices drop.
That current spread between September and December futures for the benchmark Japan-Korea Marker traded Thursday at $2.015 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange, slightly off a record earlier this week for the two contracts. At current charter rates and considering boil-off, it costs roughly 30 cents per million Btu to float a cargo per month, according to Simpson Spence Young.
On the Water
Twenty-seven LNG vessels globally were identified as floating storage as of Wednesday, a summer record and a 50% jump from a week ago, according to Rebecca Chia, an analyst at commodities research firm Kpler. This current armada is due mainly to logistical delays caused by buyers struggling to make room for the arrivals as they’re sitting on high inventories due to the pandemic.
European onshore gas storage sites may run out of space earlier than usual as facilities are almost 84% full, a level typically seen by mid-September.
As many as 50 cargoes could be floating by late-October, compared to 33 the same time last year, as traders start to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities, said James Waddell, a senior global gas analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd.

“A combination of persistent, low spot freight rates and a cargo forward curve that is in contango is encouraging traders to explore floating storage opportunities,” said Tim Mendelssohn, the managing director of Spark Commodities, which tracks tanker rates. “This window of opportunity to lock in cheap freight to justify the storage play may be short lived” as rates are forecast to rise “significantly” in the coming months, he said.
Risks
Traders surveyed by Bloomberg also warned that the current contango structure could collapse if forecasts for colder winter weather start to fade or economic recoveries from Covid-19 reverse amid a resurgence of cases. As well, the contango play for LNG has a narrower window than oil as the supercooled fuel evaporates faster than other liquid fuels.
Floating storage for LNG typically tends to be limited to about three months in order to avoid degrading the cargo and maintaining its specifications, said Oystein Kalleklev, chief executive officer of Flex LNG, another shipowner.
And while charter day rates for LNG vessels are roughly 40% lower than this time last year, floating a cargo over a number of months is still a costly endeavor. Only those that view shipping as a sunk cost or have a flexible portfolio can make floating storage work, traders said.
Most likely to benefit from floating storage are the large merchants who can shift cargoes around to meet their obligations, James Whistler, the global head of energy derivatives at SSY, said by email.
“These types of players can get very creative to maximize their portfolios, using their full global reach to take advantage of temporal and locational spreads as they arise,” he said.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,576
  • Edited 6:59pm Jul 20, 2020 6:25pm | Edited 6:59pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} {image}
Ok, Plan-B .....
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,577
  • Jul 20, 2020 7:43pm Jul 20, 2020 7:43pm
S.Korea's pro-N.Korea left wing government ruined the economy....

Combined Market Value of All Korean Stocks Is Now Less Than Amazon or Apple

https://www.bloombergquint.com/marke...mazon-or-apple
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,578
  • Jul 20, 2020 8:18pm Jul 20, 2020 8:18pm
Quoting heispark
{image}{image}
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,579
  • Jul 22, 2020 9:34am Jul 22, 2020 9:34am
Nat Gas disposal is much easier than Oil. Just burn it.

World Bank: Global gas flaring at its highest since 2009

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/7...&utm_campaign=

WASHINGTON — According to the World Bank, estimates from satellite data show global gas flaring increased to levels not seen in more than a decade, to 150 billion cubic meters, equivalent to the total annual gas consumption of Sub-Saharan Africa.
The 3% rise, from 145 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2018 to 150 bcm in 2019, was mainly due to increases in three countries: the United States (up by 23%), Venezuela (up by 16%), and Russia (up by 9%). Gas flaring in fragile or conflict-affected countries increased from 2018 to 2019: in Syria by 35% and in Venezuela by 16%, despite oil production flattening in Syria and declining by 40% in Venezuela.
Gas flaring, the burning of natural gas associated with oil extraction, takes place because of technical, regulatory, and/or economic constraints. It results in more than 400 million tons of CO2 equivalent emissions every year and wastes a valuable resource, with harmful impacts to the environment from un-combusted methane and black carbon emissions.
“Our data suggests that gas flaring continues to be a persistent problem, with solutions remaining difficult or uneconomic in certain countries,” said Christopher Sheldon, Practice Manager in the Energy & Extractives Global Practice, World Bank. “The current COVID-19 pandemic and crisis brings additional challenges, with sustainability and climate concerns potentially sidelined. We must reverse this worrying trend and end routine gas flaring once and for all.”
The top four gas flaring countries (Russia, Iraq, the United States, and Iran) continue to account for almost half (45%) of all global gas flaring, for three years running (2017-2019). When looking at all oil-producing countries, excluding the top four, gas flaring declined by 9 bcm (or 10%) from 2012 to 2019. In the first quarter of 2020, global gas flaring fell by 10%, with declines across most of the top 30 gas flaring countries.
“The World Bank and GGFR are committed to working with governments and industry to end this ‘sticky’ problem. We are working in many of the highest gas flaring countries in the world, helping them develop policies, regulations and practices to end routine flaring. At the same time, we are garnering more commitments from governments and companies to end routine flaring through the Zero Routine Flaring by 2030 initiative. Now over 80 governments and companies, accounting for over half of the world’s routine flaring, have pledged to end this 160-year-old practice,” said Zubin Bamji, Program Manager of the World Bank-managed GGFR Trust Fund.
The data was released by the World Bank-managed Global Gas Flaring Reduction Partnership (GGFR), which is composed of governments, oil companies, and international institutions working to end routine gas flaring at oil production sites around the world. GGFR, in partnership with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Colorado School of Mines, has developed global gas flaring estimates based upon observations from a satellite launched in 2012. The advanced sensors of this satellite detect the heat emitted by gas flares as infrared emissions at global upstream oil and gas facilities. A new and improved web-based application will map global gas flaring data in a reliable, standardized way, and will be publicly available in 2022, with the support of the Oil and Gas Climate Initiative (OGCI).
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,580
  • Jul 22, 2020 8:09pm Jul 22, 2020 8:09pm
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/m...%5d=2125125910

**The Platts JKM settled at $2.49/MMBtu on July 22, a nearly four-month high for the Northeast Asian spot LNG import price that comes amid concern over potential supply disruptions.
**JKM derivatives remain in steep contango with October and November swaps settling July 22 at $3/MMBtu and $3.65/MMBtu, respectively.
**Europe's benchmark Dutch TTF settled at $1.67/MMBtu on July 22. The prompt-month contract is now trading at a 45% premium to its late-May record-low at $1.14/MMBtu.
**US Henry Hub prompt-month futures settled up modestly to $1.68/MMBtu on July 22. The benchmark index fell to a 25-year low on June 25, at just $1.48/MMBtu.
**The Henry Hub balance-2020 forward curve settled at an average $1.98/MMBtu on July 21. A steep winter contango has endured with December currently valued at $2.70/MMBtu.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
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