vsa with Malcolm

Update: closed remaining contract when price arrived at a standard deviation of the main pitchfork, after exhausting the ADR for the day, and also the parabolic move ended with climactic bar. 50 pts of profit in this one:

Update: Opened a long position after the climactic bar trying an end of session short covering rally play:

Update: last attempt to go long, got stopped out at breakeven, entered long again at the second no supply bar after climactic action. We have SOT, ADR exhausted and we are far away of the daily VWAP. I was expecting a rally to the overnight low, worth the try. Tight stop, small loss if does not work, no big deal:

Going long after huge SC as previously mentioned by Gauer.
Lets see what happens.


First update



Second update



Third update.still in position long.

Thank you for posting all this wonderful analysis. I'm trying to digest every nugget-of which there are many.

My pleasure. Here the last update of the day, getting late here so I aborted mission on this one a while ago. Price is really not going anywhere, I thought we were gonna get a big end of day pullback after the selloff, but market is stuck in a range, closed the remaining position for a profit of 30pts summing the last 3 contracts. Add that to 195pts we have 225pts of profit for today, insane.

Welcome to the thread. We're all here to learn from one another, not criticize. Accordingly, I hope you take this post as it was intended.

I don't know where the Market is going, but I do know the advantage of aligning oneself with the TREND.

The current Market state is a bit muffled.



(A) The Market is finding VALUE lower.

(B) The Fast Moving Average is below the Slow Moving Average. This connotes a Down Trend.

(C) Price is below HB. We only want to take Shorts below HB and Longs above HB.

(D) & (E) are showing the "Christmas Tree" effect. Th.at is to say, switching from red to green to red to green.

I'm not saying price won't go UP, but you may be a bit early.

**Update***

While VALUE is still being found lower, note how this M1 chart has more advantageous characteristics for a Long.

EURCAD

On the daily chart price has been consolidating for 3 months, which means I'm looking for a break out and hopefully a long term trend.

Dropping down to H1, July 10th nice shakeout with next bar up and on very high volume. That high volume up bar to me shows buyers stepped in after the shakeout. Late yesterday there was an obvious test with another shakeout as today opened up.

I don't have any profit targets, 1.5460 is going to be a problem area and I'm hoping there will be a quick mark up today.

Tightened my stop to 1.5436 which is 14 pips away from entry, I think price will be hard pressed to come back down to that level so I'm not worried about it being hit.

My stretch TP is 1.5820, I'll re address that target when price reaches 1.5630. My margin is maxed out on this trade so I guess that I won't be doing any more trading for the time being.

Take care.

Bird´s eye view of the SP at the moment:

Look at this, beautiful. Practicing the Mesch method at lower timeframe. So, if the theory is valid and works, it should work in any market and timeframe, right? I configured the indicator to plot 30min profiles composed of 1min periods. So I started merging the profiles and things started to become clear, of what market is trying to do. So you can see how in the end the merged profiles formed a bigger one with undeveloped bellcurve, and now that the lower mode (POC) became bigger than the upper one, means buyers are in control. You can see how that big ass lower POC is serving as a springboard now. IF the theory is valid, then market is supposed to go up to fill the pocket and build a nice complete bellcurve. You can see that the people who bought at those springs got in a excellent positions. Yesterday I even bought at a better price, even lower. I closed the position before going to sleep, before doing this type of analysis. If I had done this, I would have certainly held the position. This showed me that closing the position was a mistake:



Here where I entered long yesterday at end of NY session, I see now it was an excellent place, but closed the trade before going to sleep, big mistake:



Will be looking for a nice place to go long now.

Just watched this less than 5 days ago.

Was waiting for a chance to go long, it presented itself a while ago after the climactic action, there were two no supplies you could have entered. Depending on the size of stop you could have gotten stopped out at NY open, which I did, but when price was getting back above the reverse trendline I went long again. Now I wanna see price closing above yesterday low, otherwise will abort the trade if it gets too close to stop loss:

Update: price skyrocketed in our direction, very nice! You can see we were at a discount price in both merged and single profiles, good place to buy according to auction market theory. Price was respecting the extrapolation line of a channel (action reaction principle), plus we were very far away from daily VWAP, also had huge buying peak on indi. The profile on the right might have to complete the bellcurve before moving up:




EDIT:

1st target hit at VWAP, which was also confluence with another median line for a profit of 23 points, after that price started collapsing hard and after it penetrated my line in the sand (lower red median line) I aborted the 2 remaining contracts for a profit of 10 points. All happening so fast and violently that is a bit hard to keep posting here as I go. Better to wait for initial balance to form and crazy open volatility to die out. Anyways, with 33 points in the pocket you can even call it a day. As I Said before, 10 pts in a day in SP is already very good. I noticed that the ADR for today is a bit narrow, if we get a rotational day then it is a bit harder to trade, because the turns are spiky and sudden, hard to get in at them.

Update: Remember, price made a sharp move up after NY open which hit a target at VWAP, but as fast as it rose, it collapsed, and the 2 remaining contracts were closed at market and we waited for another chance. So, the market gave another change to go long near the NY open again. A long position was taken at the close of the bar that dipped below the no supply and EvR bar, closing firm, resembling a testing action. We were immediately rewarded as price rose up fast again, hitting the 1st target at the VWAP (exactly same behavior as before), was making confluence with a trend channel line too, netting 24pts, stop was then adjusted. The next contract was closed when price failed to close above the previous swing high (where price collapsed after NY open rally), netting more 24pts (same area of previous target), I was also seeing no demand and some delta divergence, price could collapse again, left 1 contract in play. So this area where I closed the contract, it turned out to be absorption, with the next bars showing that characteristic (holding gains). Last contract was then closed when price hit the overnight high, which was also making some confluence with the upper median line of the red pitchfork, netting us extra 37pts. After that the market printed an upthrust with a nice pop in volume, where a short was taken. I checked the merged TPO charts and it showed price was above the high of the value area, so it could go down now, I was also seeing some divergence in delta and volume declining on the way up there. Price also had halted at the 1st deviation of daily VWAP to the upside, Weis Wave showing demand drying up at each thrust, a small selling peak appear on indicator right at the UT. 15min chart shows the upthrusts very nicely, it appeared there embedded with no demand. Aggressive short with a tight stop:

Some extra market profile info:

Update: Partial profits when price got near the overnight low and yesterday low with some delta divergence netting 16pts. 2 contracts remaining were closed at breach of line in the sand, aborted mission, netting 8 pts:

Update: Another short attempt at a climactic bar, went short on the bar itself when I saw the close going below overnight high. Same spot of previous upthrust. Aggressive short, tight stop, price can easily test the high of the climactic bar ( I got stopped out at a short attempt on that narrow range no demand bar that touched the upper median line - red - for a loss of 6pts):



Drawn some new pitchforks that better capture price:

Update: Aborted mission with a loss of 4,5pts, there was no follow through and price breached the line in the sand printing a no supply test bar:

Update: Built the case for a long position, worked nicely. A lot of effort to go down and no result, plus a lot of recent buying bars. We are inside the pocket of the big profile, so I waited til we reached it´s big ass lower POC and it printed a narrow range bar with high volume - bullish EvR, as the close move strongly above the POC I went long, with a tight stop:



Worth noticing that the NY session TPO chart has a poor high, this will probably be easily broken in a bit: