Trading Institutional Order Flow

Would you not be looking to sell on the 4 hr instead ?

thanx a lot, I like your analysis and how detailed it is. I simply assumed the demand was valid since it managed to wick above the opposite supply by over 300 pips.

Hello everyone,

I am traiding the S+D methodology profitable for one month now, but I am not shure if i followed the rules at those trade. I would really apreciate a comment from the more experienced traders out here.

My entry was at the blue 1H SZ

thanks,
Philipp

I'm not sure I fit into the category of more experienced traders though but their are many variations on how to trade supply and demand
If something is not broken, you don't have to fix it, rather you can add more to strengthen it
As long as this works for you, is there really need to change it. The goal is to make money not to be right

Just my thoughts though ✌✌✌

Morning fellow traders just wanted to see what you think of my top down analysis of the euro/jpy
hope you have a very profitable week ahead

I have a question, on this chart

Hey DB just a quick question what time frames do you use to trade on your top down analysis?

Hey,

i am new to this methodology. I now there are trading opportunities if price reaches the S/D Zones on the highest TF and a reversal is confirmed on the lowest TF with trendline breaks or remove of old zones.

But how do we trade if the price is between higher TF S/D Zones and it has already bounced from the highest TF Zone. Is it right that we then trade S/D Zones in the middle TF and look for price to reach S/D Zones in the middle TF and wait for confirmation on the lowest TF ?
Or do we only trade in this case if the price has a trend between the bigger Zones?
Or do we generally only trade if price reaches Zones in the highest TF ?

thanks,
philsor

Hi Philsor. Welcome to the thread. Please see my response below.

It really depends, what sort of trader your are. Are you a trend trader or are you a counter trend trader? What you need to determine is if you want to sell the corrective move from the highest TF in your sequence or you want to wait for the pullback and then join the trend. First you need to determine what trend is in your highest time frame sequence. For example: if your price reaches a highest timeframe sequence Supply zone but the trend on this TF is up and you are a trend trader, you will want to join the impulse move not the correction. So the most appropriate action would be to wait until the price reaches demand on your highest time frame again or the supply zone is absorbed and trade the level with the trend that was responsible for the absorption of that level. When it comes to trading in the middle, there is a saying "don't diddle in the middle". I personally avoid it. If I want to be a trend trader my personal preference is to trade when you are low on the curve of your highest time frame, and all the 3 TF trends are alligned. I.e. 4H, 1H and 15m. There is more to the methodology, let me know and I know that people will help you out here.

thanks

David

Hey David,

thank you for the answer, that helped a lot. I think I will also avoid to trade the price in the middle.
One thing is confusing me now. You have said, we need to identify the trend in the highest TF and AKT posted this:

"If price is moving from higher timeframe supply to higher timeframe demand we are in a downtrend.
If price is moving from higher timeframe demand to higher timeframe supply then we are in an uptrend.

By this definition, once I have identified the Curve SZ and the curve DZ I simply go to the second chart, the trend chart, to determine the trend on that chart (please note that it is not the curve timeframe chart that I determine the trend on, it is the middle chart of my sequence of 3, the intermediate chart .".

I am trying to put your answer and AKT post together.
You are trading the trend of the highest TF, that makes sense for me, to determine if you trade counter or with the trend.
But why do we need the trend in the intermediate chart.

thanks,
philsor

Hi Philsor,

I hope that majority of the guys will agree with me on this one It's all about which setup has more probability of going in your favor. I was over complicating things a lot at the beginning when starting with the S&D Trading and I was trading with the trend and counter trend and because I was trading both setups I was getting confused.

The way that I look at your example "if price is moving from supply to demand" it just tells me what is happening in the market. Below I put couple of scenarios which might help you. To me most important thing is to use common sense when deciphering the charts. Personally, i wouldn't only look at trading in between the zones. You need to make Multiple timeframe analysis and come to a conclusion what is currently happening.

Example (4H, 1H and 15M). UPTREND on 4H. Trend Trading.

4H - I look at the charts and mark my curve zones, then I draw the trendline which help me to determine what is the market doing, to confirm that it's an uptrend I want to see supply zones getting removed. So now I'm done with the 4H and I know that Supply zones are getting removed and demand zones are being respected, plus I got a trendline that confirms the uptrend (price above the TL).

1H - After I analyzed the 4H and I know it's an uptrend, I want to see that 1H is going in the same direction as the 4H. So I look at the same thing, is the trendline up or down, are the supply zones being removed or not. If I see the same scenario as on the 4H. I already know that I can trade all valid 1H demand zones because I I will be going in the bigger TF direction. Note: with the 1H demand you also need to look at how high on the 4H curve you currently are, if it's too high and you will be going against the 4H supply then it's not a good idea (lower probability) for the trade to succeed).

15M - Same scenario here, I know that 4H and 1H are up, I want to see if the 15M is trending the same way. On the 15m you will have few scenarios, because it's a smaller TF the conditions will change a lot quicker. Your 15M might be in the Downtrend, Uptrend or Consolidation.

If the 15m is UP (all the rules for the uptrend are met), I will be looking to trade all fresh 15M demand lower on the curve and your profit margin on that TF is at least 2:1. Also, I know that I will be going with the flow because the 4H and 1H are in the uptrend.

If the 15M is in consolidation, the TL is broken, I know that 15m lost the steam and it might be caused by the 1H starting to retrace. So if I got 15M out of the alignment I will be only trading the 1H demand and 15M nested zones withing the 1H demand, as this is the TF that's still in the uptrend and in line with the 4H uptrend. Or If I want to scalp the 15m I will wait for the 15m to get in line with the higher time frame and turn into uptrend.

If the 15M is down, I know that probably the 1H is retracing. So I will look at the 1H and see if the price will revisit the 1H demand and the uptrend will be still intact I will take the trade from the 1H demand.

I hope that the above scenario helped. Coming back to your question from your post, trade zone to zone and look at the intermediate timeframe to see what kind of trend is present. I would look at it this way.

I open a chart and see that the price is sitting in the supply curve zone. I would ask myself the below questions:

a). What trend is on the 4H, is it UP or Down or Consolidation? If it's up and I'm a trend trader, I am not interested in trading to the downside, so I will be waiting for the supply to be either removed or I will wait for the price to retrace back to my demand zone on the 4H and only then I will be looking to trade.

If the trend is in consolidation on the 4H then I can trade zone to zone and look at the 1H trend to decipher what direction I want to be trading.

All the above scenarios would have been totally different if I was a counter trend trading, I am not saying that you have to chose and be trend or counter trend, you can trade both, but that comes with experience and I am not comfortable yet to do both.

Below are couple of trades I took this week and I hope they will help too. I also took a screenshot from my account, so I you know that I am not bullshitting.

EURCAD (Uptrend on the 4H, 1H Uptrend and 15m downtrend). I took half of the position before I went to bed and moved my SL to break even, I'm not comfortable to leave the trades overnight, but this one hit the TP at around 5 oclock London time.

I took 1H fresh demand low on the curve.

Before:



After:



GBPCHF 4H uptrend, 1h Uptrend, 15M downtrend

Before:



After: I took a confirmation trade on this one as I lost 1 trade that day on GBPCHF, on the 2nd position I took half of the position at 1:1 and moved rest of my position to SL and the SL break even go hit (on my broker, not on the Tradingview, frustrating) .



Results from yesterday.



I am not posting the results just to "flex". I just want to show that it works, when you really focus on the process and stick to your rules.

Hope I helped a bit.

Edit: Blue are 4H zones, 1H zones are orange, 15M are green.

Great explanation Thank you

Hey David,

wow thank you, I really appreciate that. That have made the things clear. I think now I can try to put that together for my own trading rules.
I guess a lot of people reading that thread benefit from that.

Glad I could help.

hi bro I'm new to supply and demand trading can you tell me where to start learning

Good start is alfonso through set and forget if you sign up for emails you get the ebook of the basis of rules good luck

HI AKT,

you used to have webinars for the new learners like me..do you still take webinars now? I was going through all the videos on YT and came to know about your webinars.

Thanks

Hi Salmanali203, I know that he does the paid one to one sessions, you can go to his website and check the pricing. It's very useful, I took the 4 x one to one sessions about 2 months ago.

I am sure it was useful, but it's costly for me, I wish I can afford it right now. But thanks for the reply.

Thanks

Hi Guys, I hope you are all good and that FX is treating you well

I got a quick question. Obviously as I am still learning I went through some older youtube videos this weekend (AKT older videos, Moneyball Austin videos, he was trained by AKT too and Alfonso Moreno videos). What I noticed and correct me if I'm wrong, if they are trading intraday/daily income trades, they only trade from either D1 Curve zones or H4 Curve zones. There was never a trade or very very rare when they took a trade where the price was i.e. at 30% away from the curve that already reacted from either D1 or H4 zone. They rarely seem to trade the space between the curve. Also, Alfonso Moreno in his training program mentioned that the best way to scan the market is to see which pairs and their price are already or very close to the curve TF zones and only then start analyzing it.

Are they doing this because it's a lot safer compared to trading the Middle Time-frame trend. Please see the below screenshot, it'll be a lot easier to explain.

I got a bonus question on the 2nd screenshot. I hope someone can help me with this.

Question 1.


Question 2