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$ For The week of 10/30-With Trade Ideas

  • #81
  • Nov 1, 2006 10:17am Nov 1, 2006 10:17am
my question is will we get a run or just stop and chop?
  • #82
  • Nov 1, 2006 10:21am Nov 1, 2006 10:21am
Quoting enoc2g
my question is will we get a run or just stop and chop?
if he says something about currency it would have to be pretty strong 2 days before non farm imho
Ghost Swoopen in for my pips while no one is lookin !!
  • #83
  • Nov 1, 2006 10:24am Nov 1, 2006 10:24am
yep thats the xfactor in all this
  • #84
  • Nov 1, 2006 10:55am Nov 1, 2006 10:55am
A Nice Pop Off the ISM But Didn't Get the Full Value

If you've been reading my posts, u know I was long in the GBP way before the annoucement. The GBP got sold off to about 9060 in London, before being re-bought. That confirmed to me that the professional money was thinking the ISM would be $- and it was, as was the prices paid component. Yet, we didn't get the big move that we saw off yesterday's report and I think the ADP/NFP was the main culprit here.

There wasn't much to be seen in the markets after the ADP was released, but it (and the NFP) was in the back of many trader's minds during the ISM trade, limiting it's value. The ADP came out @ 128,000 but more important then the actual number is the fact that the market knows when the ADP is close to the consensus, it's usually very accurate. Only when it differs greatly from the consensus has the ADP been wrong. So how is the NFP going to look and even more importantly, how is the Fed going to interpet the #?

Since the ADP does not cover gov't jobs and only surveys about 1/2 the amount of businesses as the NFP, it's likely that the NFP will come in around the 140,000 area.

What's the Fed gonna think of this number? That's the big question in the mind of traders now. My opinion is that 140,000 is going to keep the Fed on track with their current thinking, i.e. no move either way. There's bound to be a lot more written about this, so if the thinking of economists and traders is different...

We'll have to just watch the markets to see how they're thinking. There's still plenty of long money in the GBP and EUR now; perhaps a lot of that money will start to get out. I'm not making any calls here though...just gonna keep watching and see how it goes.

Also keep in the back of your mind that the BoE rate incr next week is nearly fully bought into. A second incr (which had looked very certain) is definately in question, as the last 2 UK reports do show some slowing in their economy.

Let's see what the B man has to say...
  • #85
  • Nov 1, 2006 11:18am Nov 1, 2006 11:18am
News,

Are you currently SHORT GBPUSD?

My original plan was to short it at 9100. but the ISM release was too near I removed it. i forgot to short it when it was 9130s thinking it would go even further up.. bad mistake.
  • #86
  • Nov 1, 2006 11:22am Nov 1, 2006 11:22am
Just watchin the EURO and GBP for now...but I am looking closely at the AUD. There could be a very good trade there later...doin some more research on it.
  • #87
  • Nov 1, 2006 11:50am Nov 1, 2006 11:50am
im currently flat as well, looks like the market is gonna wait till friday for the next move... gbp looks like a good short at the same time its still acting bullish id like to see price collapse thru 8950 with some news to back it as well... i dont think well get that anytime soon, best strat in my opinion now is to wait for pullback and stay with the trend.
  • #88
  • Nov 1, 2006 3:49pm Nov 1, 2006 3:49pm
We Might See the Same Thing Again in the GBP

The GBP is gonna close in NY pretty close to where it opened. That means there's still plenty of long money left on the table, so I'm going to do the same thing early tomorrow morning during the London session that I've done the past couple of days: watch the price movement.

We've got a couple of fairly important US reports coming out @ 13.30 GMT. Unit labor costs are a key for the Fed and non-farm productivity is like a "get out of jail free" card for the economy, as increased productivity allows busineses to manufacture goods and services more efficiently (read: cheaper). There's also a UK number, PMI constrction, that's tipped to come out about the same.

So i'm gonna watch the price action. Again, I'm hoping to see a certain amount of profit taking, maybe 40 or so pips and the level to hold. If it does, it will tell me the long money is stil in the market and they expect tomorrow's numbers to be $ neg. In that case, i'll take a long GBP position prior to the reports. If cable falls off the charts in London, then all bets are off. Let's see how it goes.
  • #89
  • Nov 2, 2006 7:58am Nov 2, 2006 7:58am

Commerzbank Daily Commentary:





The EUR view:

Ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls, US data today is
unlikely to be trend-setting for EUR/USD, despite a possible dollar negative

impact. Markets will instead focus on the ECB press conference. We, like

the consensus, believe a December hike is a done deal, but at the last

meeting Trichet was reluctant to give a clear message on interest rates in

2007. Considering still strong sentiment indicators in October (German ifo,

Eurozone economic confidence), another increase in rates in the first half of

2007 can’t be ruled out, as the ECB seeks to create some room before it

may have to consider rate cuts further out as the global economy cools. For

the moment European economic indicators are holding up, which is holding

back market doubts of a possible overshooting by the ECB. In the current

USD negative environment, this is giving the EUR further support. By the

same margin, any further deterioration in US data - manufacturing ISM

disapointed Wednesday, but has yet to be really be reflected in the USD –

risks tipping the scales further in favour of the EUR. The risk of a test to the

upside towards 1.2820-50 on an hawkish sounding Trichet remains. If, on the

other hand, Trichet perfers to remain quiet on the ECB’s monetary policy in

2007, the market will focus again on incoming data, like tomorrow’s NFP. It'll

probably take quite a strong NFP report (say above +175K) to push the USD

higher and gains look limited to 1.2660 for now. NFP below 100k, risks the

aforementioned 1.2850 level.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #90
  • Edited 11:09am Nov 2, 2006 10:12am | Edited 11:09am
It's All About the NFP Now

Today's numbers were a non event in the currency markets-equities didn't like them at first-then bounced back. We saw a small pop up in the GBP when it hit some resistance and lowered a bit and continued to bounce around.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record (remember records?...lol) it's all about the NFP and how the long money in London see's it. I'm not making any predictions how they will-but i'll be watching it closely. People vote with their "currency". If a big GBP sell off is seen, then London is protecting their positions and doesn't want to get caught with all their chips on the table. If they leave their chips on the table in the face of about the biggest fundamental report in the world, well then obviously they're not worried about their positions and are probably fairly convinced of a $- result.

**You Must be Aware of Any Revisions. As Seen Last Time an Upward Revision to the Prior Month's Number is $ +**

The thinking is a bit tricky, but here goes:

1. The GBP is still in the high 90's-Traders are very certain their long positions are safe and pretty much convinced the NFP will be $-. They're probably right. I will be long GBP here before 8.30 EST and either live or die with their thnking.

2. 9050-some traders have pared their bets but most are still feeling they're long positions are safe. Good chance of a neutral or $- NFP. I'll go long, but with a smaller position and a tight stop prior to 8.30 EST. Probably a good 70 pip potential off a $- number.

3. 9025-more of the above; less traders see the NFP as $-, but that still doesn't mean they're right. It means they really don't know and that means we don't know either. No position prior to the release. Watch the number and trade accordingly. A number off consensus either way sets up a very nice trade.

4. 9000-The long money is pretty much off the table-the thinking is definately leaning $+. No position before the release; watch the number and trade accordingly. An off consensus $+ number still is a good trade; a $- number is a fantastic trade, maybe 100 pips or more.

5. 8970 or below-the long money is off the table and traders have positioned themselves for a $+ NFP. They're probably right. I'll be short the GBP along with them.

* BTW-If anyone is thinking that lower levels of the GBP is a "fake-out move" and the "smart money" is trying to set up something for the "dumb money"-honestly all of that is way above my head. I guess i'm dumb. If that's the way it turns out-then it's a lesson learned for me.

Remember-these guys are dividing up bonuses of over 1B-they are the best and the brightest; the smartest traders in the world. That doesn't mean that they're right every time, but i'd rather trade with them then against them

Trade accordingly.
  • #91
  • Nov 2, 2006 10:16am Nov 2, 2006 10:16am
That seems like a sound observation.
The pound always has the most pre-data movement. I would say that many times if not most they get it right with U.S. data.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #92
  • Nov 2, 2006 10:21am Nov 2, 2006 10:21am
I think price could also just consolidate at this level, then depending on the NFP report could break up or down,,, I think alot of protective sell stop are beneath certain levels here once tripped price we start its run backdown. I see the potential for an upside move as well. But price is seriously overbought with a retracement back down I could see another wave higher... But staying long now is like walking a tight rope... that can snap at any time..
  • #93
  • Nov 2, 2006 6:43pm Nov 2, 2006 6:43pm
Taking cue from history, I took a short @ 9080 TP 9050 and wait for the release..

How I wished I shorted it at my original 9100 last ISM... Darn I hate how ISM ruined my day back then... I had a limit sell but price and ism was so near it I have to upped it to 9150..

Hmm... Japan is on holiday today... move would start with london.
  • #94
  • Nov 2, 2006 6:59pm Nov 2, 2006 6:59pm
I'm thinking there will be a less risky play on the fade! Thanks for your insights! I may take a small short position so I can take your money News- Joking~

Quoting NewstraderFX
It's All About the NFP Now

Today's numbers were a non event in the currency markets-equities didn't like them at first-then bounced back. We saw a small pop up in the GBP when it hit some resistance and lowered a bit and continued to bounce around.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record (remember records?...lol) it's all about the NFP and how the long money in London see's it. I'm not making any predictions how they will-but i'll be watching it closely. People vote with their "currency". If a big GBP sell off is seen, then London is protecting their positions and doesn't want to get caught with all their chips on the table. If they leave their chips on the table in the face of about the biggest fundamental report in the world, well then obviously they're not worried about their positions and are probably fairly convinced of a $- result.

**You Must be Aware of Any Revisions. As Seen Last Time an Upward Revision to the Prior Month's Number is $ +**

The thinking is a bit tricky, but here goes:

1. The GBP is still in the high 90's-Traders are very certain their long positions are safe and pretty much convinced the NFP will be $-. They're probably right. I will be long GBP here before 8.30 EST and either live or die with their thnking.

2. 9050-some traders have pared their bets but most are still feeling they're long positions are safe. Good chance of a neutral or $- NFP. I'll go long, but with a smaller position and a tight stop prior to 8.30 EST. Probably a good 70 pip potential off a $- number.

3. 9025-more of the above; less traders see the NFP as $-, but that still doesn't mean they're right. It means they really don't know and that means we don't know either. No position prior to the release. Watch the number and trade accordingly. A number off consensus either way sets up a very nice trade.

4. 9000-The long money is pretty much off the table-the thinking is definately leaning $+. No position before the release; watch the number and trade accordingly. An off consensus $+ number still is a good trade; a $- number is a fantastic trade, maybe 100 pips or more.

5. 8970 or below-the long money is off the table and traders have positioned themselves for a $+ NFP. They're probably right. I'll be short the GBP along with them.

* BTW-If anyone is thinking that lower levels of the GBP is a "fake-out move" and the "smart money" is trying to set up something for the "dumb money"-honestly all of that is way above my head. I guess i'm dumb. If that's the way it turns out-then it's a lesson learned for me.

Remember-these guys are dividing up bonuses of over 1B-they are the best and the brightest; the smartest traders in the world. That doesn't mean that they're right every time, but i'd rather trade with them then against them

Trade accordingly.
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #95
  • Nov 2, 2006 7:02pm Nov 2, 2006 7:02pm
Quoting BurgerKing
Taking cue from history, I took a short @ 9080 TP 9050 and wait for the release..

How I wished I shorted it at my original 9100 last ISM... Darn I hate how ISM ruined my day back then... I had a limit sell but price and ism was so near it I have to upped it to 9150..

Hmm... Japan is on holiday today... move would start with london.
I think I'll go long then. Just for kicks.
Mr. Trend
  • #96
  • Edited 2:26am Nov 3, 2006 1:57am | Edited 2:26am
GBPUSD's dropped to 9050 but it did not trigger my limit as ASK is still above 9050 by 2 pips! darn... I wasnt looking when it happend and it happedn FAST!


strong resistance at 9050 pre NFP..

darn! out at 68!
  • #97
  • Nov 3, 2006 4:08am Nov 3, 2006 4:08am
Hi Summit-yeah I can see how tradin like this might be a bit too much for you...good luck...
  • #98
  • Nov 3, 2006 8:08am Nov 3, 2006 8:08am
How are you feeling now about your long position. Take a hike Bozo!


Quoting NewstraderFX
Hi Summit-yeah I can see how tradin like this might be a bit too much for you...good luck...
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #99
  • Nov 3, 2006 8:38am Nov 3, 2006 8:38am
Shorts (BK, summit) took money from the Longs (news, trend).

Dont worry, we'll give free drinks later.
  • #100
  • Nov 3, 2006 9:12am Nov 3, 2006 9:12am
The NFP is Two Releases at the Same Time
The smart money in London was right-at first. The Oct number came out $- and we did see a spike. Then the 2nd report was released: the revision of September's number to 148K causing a huge round of $ buying. I've never seen a comment on any service-BB, Thomson, IFR, Reuter's etc, that said word one about how they felt a revision could look, or even if there'd be one. If you want to trade fundamentals as I do, then you can't trade this report, at least not prior to the release. I wouldn't be surprised at all next month to see much more written about this.

I've seen enough with the NFP at this point. The gov'ts numbers are completly worthless. The market has somehow focused on the revision number as being the "real" number i.e. the number the Fed will watch. I'm not sure why the revision should be considered more reliable, but facts are facts and there was a strong reaction to it in currencies and in bonds.

As far as the "smart money" goes-well you could have made 25 pips or so off that UK PMI report...they certainly were right about that. They've been right about many others as well, so I'm definately going to take it into consideration in the future.

Take a look at that ISM number just released. We didn't see any real re-tracement after the NFP. Maybe the smart money saw the ISM report as $+. I took a short GBP position just prior to the report based on that and picked up about 25 pips in 2 minutes.

As far as my position prior to the NFP is concerned-I got long around 9070-after it spiked to around 9110 and I heard the revision #, I got out as fast as I could. Matter of fact, DBFX worked pretty well and I closed in the 90's. Got a few pips there. Then, as a fundamental trader, I tried to further short GBP...didn't get in immediately, but wound up with another 30 pips, so overall not too bad.

BTW-everyone's talking about the HouseHold Survey-where do u find info on this? I've never seen any...it gets reported, but where's the pre-release analysis? I've never seen it on any calenders either...
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