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Is this the big reversal point for the dollar?

  • #21
  • Edited 10:58pm Oct 28, 2006 9:17pm | Edited 10:58pm
Quoting philmcgrew
I was not aware that there were technical analysis books that applied to forex only. Perhaps you could list your sources so that we can learn why we should stop trading these profitable intraday patterns.
Here is one source
http://www.amazon.com/Technical-Anal...heallinonesite

Here is another
http://www.amazon.com/o/ASIN/0471745...heallinonesite

And I did not say that you could not use technical analysis intraday. I specifically said that a formation, such as a flag, on a 4h chart is not reliable. Using indicators is a completely different story. That being said, if you are now trading profitably on intraday formations, I would not read any books or change anything of what you are doing.
  • #22
  • Oct 28, 2006 9:24pm Oct 28, 2006 9:24pm
Basically a flag can exist on a higher time frame of a smaller time frame, the price projections are obviously different problem is usually on the higher time frame the pattern takes more time to develope.. the thing is at this time the gbp is nearing a major TL to the topside we could get more action to the upside.. id position my self for both possibilities depending on price action.. if we see a clear break of the 9000 level, then we could get enough pressure for it to keep climbing however this can turn into a double top or macd divergence or heavy selling could emerge or profit taking even,, anything can happen lets just wait and see... its fun to try to imagine what could happen. But u really dont know.
  • #23
  • Oct 28, 2006 11:31pm Oct 28, 2006 11:31pm
Alot of people turn to wave counts at this point but I have not found them reliable on 4hr channels. I will say that the higher the count gets, the higher the probability of a breakout.

I feel more comfortable taking this position because I beleive the dollar will not tank till sometime in the first quarter. So, I am looking for one more run out of the USD.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #24
  • Oct 28, 2006 11:39pm Oct 28, 2006 11:39pm
Fx im currently in short position on the pound, debating on where to place my stop.. im well aware that price can turn was thinking of putting my stop above the 9000 level say 9005 or a little bit higher 9025 would be good buts its kinda wide based on my entry which did see a profit... the thing that concerns is I do see some short term support building beneath 8965 with this in mind i have decided to move my stop lower to avoid giving back too much of my profits in 1 trade. although im tempted to widen and see how high it can press and then catch the collapse however I think this might be a bad move.. any thoughts?
  • #25
  • Oct 29, 2006 12:18am Oct 29, 2006 12:18am
Quoting FXopportunist
Alot of people turn to wave counts at this point but I have not found them reliable on 4hr channels. I will say that the higher the count gets, the higher the probability of a breakout.

I feel more comfortable taking this position because I beleive the dollar will not tank till sometime in the first quarter. So, I am looking for one more run out of the USD.

What wave counting do you mean??? Do you mean the elliott waves counting??? I don't think it would be hard to count elliott waves on any time frame as far as I know...Elliott defined many time frames & cycle lengths as per my information...


Thanks,

Nader
  • #26
  • Oct 29, 2006 12:52am Oct 29, 2006 12:52am
Did anyone visit the amazon.com site and see the price of that book? over $1700.00 gee I have that book I should sell it for half!

Lotsa rehashed stuff not worth it.


"Here is one source
http://www.amazon.com/Technical-Ana...theallinonesite"
  • #27
  • Oct 29, 2006 6:03am Oct 29, 2006 6:03am
Quoting narafa
What wave counting do you mean??? Do you mean the elliott waves counting??? I don't think it would be hard to count elliott waves on any time frame as far as I know...Elliott defined many time frames & cycle lengths as per my information...


Thanks,

Nader
Yes, exactly. You can count em. 123-ABC, and then when it doesn't work, we can go back and say: "well the reason you were stopped out was 3 was not actuallly 3 it was b in the abc on wave 2 that is why you lost money". And you can say "oh, I feel better now, I was really concerned that the elliot rules did not work". LOL, just kidding elliot guys! Don't kill me! But seriously, when these 4 hr channels form, they just don't follow the standard rules. At least that is my observation. I just have better luck playing them by support resitance rules and avoiding the count.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #28
  • Oct 29, 2006 6:12am Oct 29, 2006 6:12am
Quoting enoc2g
Fx im currently in short position on the pound, debating on where to place my stop.. im well aware that price can turn was thinking of putting my stop above the 9000 level say 9005 or a little bit higher 9025 would be good buts its kinda wide based on my entry which did see a profit... the thing that concerns is I do see some short term support building beneath 8965 with this in mind i have decided to move my stop lower to avoid giving back too much of my profits in 1 trade. although im tempted to widen and see how high it can press and then catch the collapse however I think this might be a bad move.. any thoughts?
You know I would not dare quote a number on this. It is not my money, it is yours. But I will say that I have two strategy types on swings. One is a pattern swing strategy. I will us a larger position size on these and tighter stop based on the reversal pattern I am playing. Like some type of topping pattern for example, I might place the stop just above a shoulder on a H&S or just above the top on a double top etc. On a channel trade you just have to look at it and consider what number you would consider to be a failure of your technical channel and there is your answer. On these channel trades I use a smaller initial position and will add to it if it pans out.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #29
  • Oct 30, 2006 6:54am Oct 30, 2006 6:54am
Looking at the 4 major dollar crosses as a whole, they sure look like there is more dollar down coming this week. Will be interesting to see the data's effect.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #30
  • Oct 31, 2006 6:02am Oct 31, 2006 6:02am
I think the USD will strengthen, but its just heresay.
  • #31
  • Oct 31, 2006 6:55am Oct 31, 2006 6:55am
The dollar crosses have found support at our technical levels. Now it is just a matter of rather the data drives us past the midpoint of the channel range or reverses us to new dollar lows. Either way it is a low risk high reward trade. In slow markets like the last few months, it is nice to have any good technical opportunities.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #32
  • Oct 31, 2006 7:18am Oct 31, 2006 7:18am
We will see GBP/USD back at the 1.9050 level or perhaps higher. I'll wait for that level to short the hell out of it.
  • #33
  • Nov 1, 2006 5:05am Nov 1, 2006 5:05am
Quoting blueshift
We will see GBP/USD back at the 1.9050 level or perhaps higher. I'll wait for that level to short the hell out of it.
you referring to just an intraday opportunity blueshift?....or shorting the hell out of it on a longer term basis?.....did you take it on?

like I mentioned earlier in the thread - I just don't see the 'weakness' in Cable....didn't last week (as it approached 1.90), & still don't as it flirts with 1.91........

since the pullback (to the low fib line) from the summers highs, it's displayed nothing but strength on the big frames.......

I guess the low risk opp's have remained on the "buying dips" side.....

the fundamentals sure aren't helping the buck of late, & until they do, technically the Cable Bulls are still steering this..........
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  • #34
  • Nov 1, 2006 6:35am Nov 1, 2006 6:35am
There has been no evidence of dollar bargain hunters coming in yet. The last 2 moves have not even really retraced. Will be interesting to see how much panick ensues at the first sign of resistance.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #35
  • Nov 1, 2006 7:00am Nov 1, 2006 7:00am
Quoting FXopportunist
The dollar crosses have found support at our technical levels. Now it is just a matter of rather the data drives us past the midpoint of the channel range or reverses us to new dollar lows. Either way it is a low risk high reward trade. In slow markets like the last few months, it is nice to have any good technical opportunities.
Hey fx what happened to the $ love we are suppose to get, its not looking good, it was technical for $ love last week, but looks like that was broken huh? maybe the non farm adp will clue us in on some strength and it will follow thru on friday?
Ghost Swoopen in for my pips while no one is lookin !!
  • #36
  • Nov 1, 2006 7:02am Nov 1, 2006 7:02am
Hi

I agree. No indication yet of a major retrace, just some resistance. I'm a firm believer that the market will show you when to trade and cable above 1.8950 gives no indication to me to sell.

JC
  • #37
  • Nov 1, 2006 7:03am Nov 1, 2006 7:03am
How does that song go? oh yea. Love stinks!

LOL Scott
Quoting Ghostpipper
Hey fx what happened to the $ love we are suppose to get, its not looking good, it was technical for $ love last week, but looks like that was broken huh? maybe the non farm adp will clue us in on some strength and it will follow thru on friday?
  • #38
  • Nov 1, 2006 7:07am Nov 1, 2006 7:07am
yeah, definitely........there are some pretty decent lower lines for price to aim for too as you say, the acid test will the reaction at one or two of these lower swing levels.....particularly the strength (or not) of the attempts to regain lost ground!!.....which I would imagine, will reveal itself quite nicely via the hourly.........

we're fast approaching years end, & if it does decide to make a lunge on +9150, the vultures will start circling for sure!

not such a bad position to be in really....whether you're still long & shoving it, or looking to pick it off as & when it begins to falter.
  • #39
  • Nov 1, 2006 7:15am Nov 1, 2006 7:15am
Quoting Ghostpipper
Hey fx what happened to the $ love we are suppose to get, its not looking good, it was technical for $ love last week, but looks like that was broken huh? maybe the non farm adp will clue us in on some strength and it will follow thru on friday?
You can't marry these ideas Ghostpipper. We had an obvious reesistance area. They hold or they don't. You have to be ready for both. I see alot of people try to predict and then they feel invested in their ideas. They hold and hold against the obvious and they pay the price.

See the set up and play it smartly. Once a prominent resistance is brokern you have to immediately reconsider the sentiment and new targets.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #40
  • Last Post: Nov 3, 2006 9:21am Nov 3, 2006 9:21am
Well we have finally found some dollar lovers.
We have a nice range definition for next week to. Game on.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
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