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The Swamp

  • #69,281
  • Jun 24, 2020 1:55pm Jun 24, 2020 1:55pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} new hour, change to 1254
I think Day will close around RU S2 then will prolly go up to 1282 before more DOWN
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #69,282
  • Jun 24, 2020 2:08pm Jun 24, 2020 2:08pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} out here 1256 instead , +9 {image}
Did you keep your 1.1330 short?
  • #69,283
  • Jun 24, 2020 2:57pm Jun 24, 2020 2:57pm
Quoting jaylovin
{quote} Did you keep your 1.1330 short?
no,, cashed out,,
  • #69,284
  • Jun 24, 2020 3:00pm Jun 24, 2020 3:00pm
Quoting Boulder
next TP 1257, 1255,, 1252.. let them hit it...
yes,, cleared my last 1250s TP at 1252 +10/// need refill
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  • #69,285
  • Jun 24, 2020 3:01pm Jun 24, 2020 3:01pm
I long some here 1254 ,my longs avg 1262 atm...
  • #69,286
  • Jun 24, 2020 3:19pm Jun 24, 2020 3:19pm
Quoting Boulder
EU printed so far... next to print 1252 or 1338 RU R1 ----------1.1338 WP R1 ----------1.1303 DP PP ----------1.1296 RU S1 ----------1.1274 DP S1 ----------1.1252 RU S2 ----------1.1242 MP R2 ----------1.1240 WP PP ----------1.1233 DP S2 ----------1.1225 RU S3 ----------1.1189
Finally printed that 1252.. I may have to wait 1240s anther day

RU R1 ----------1.1338
WP R1 ----------1.1303
DP PP ----------1.1296
RU S1 ----------1.1274
DP S1 ----------1.1252
RU S2 ----------1.1242
MP R2 ----------1.1240
WP PP ----------1.1233
DP S2 ----------1.1225
RU S3 ----------1.1189

  • #69,287
  • Jun 24, 2020 3:33pm Jun 24, 2020 3:33pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} no,, cashed out,,
What does it means DP ,RU and WP?
Russell lloyd - Macro never lies
  • #69,288
  • Jun 24, 2020 3:45pm Jun 24, 2020 3:45pm
Quoting Bear.J
{quote} What does it means DP ,RU and WP?
Daily Pivot
Russian
Weekly Pivot
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #69,289
  • Jun 24, 2020 4:28pm Jun 24, 2020 4:28pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} new hour, change to 1254
probably not good enough on day close. placing a pending short 1297...1254/78 is R. But 1297 may attract. st bearish as long as below 1294
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #69,290
  • Jun 24, 2020 4:30pm Jun 24, 2020 4:30pm
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} I think Day will close around RU S2 then will prolly go up to 1282 before more DOWN
I can see it below that R. I dont want to write off 1297.. I think it should have closed -1248 for bear day, It missed some.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #69,291
  • Jun 24, 2020 4:31pm Jun 24, 2020 4:31pm
Copper- closed just above a major daily support level despite it being mixed on the day.
30yr Bonds- closed just below major daily resistance despite a large swing up
Equities- If the FED sticks with their program of bidding them up during Asia, then could end up looking similar to the fall that happened on Friday before getting bid back up to the upper resistance top.
Oil- Still fighting on the daily uptrend with the large gap down from the beginning of March fall, and while oil was down (bearish daily) it also sits above major support.

The correlation the currencies have right now with long term bonds and equities make this new trading day not as clear cut as some may believe it is... If shorting the Euro on a bounce keep an eye on the correlating pairs as we ---could--- see a complete turn around like we had end of day yesterday.

Today was about bidding the USD up since yesterday's close, but with the Yen not getting bid at all it cautions me on seeing a continuation of the selloff we had today. As always PA is what will give us our entries so trade safe with the mixed signals we currently see.

Edit: Copper, Equites, Oil, and the Euro are all fairly well correlated (move in same direction 90% of the time over the past 30days)... Bond futures & Dollar move opposite those listed prior--usually--.
  • #69,292
  • Jun 24, 2020 4:47pm Jun 24, 2020 4:47pm
Quoting mmccormac
Copper- closed just above a major daily support level despite it being mixed on the day. 30yr Bonds- closed just below major daily resistance despite a large swing up Equities- If the FED sticks with their program of bidding them up during Asia, then could end up looking similar to the fall that happened on Friday before getting bid back up to the upper resistance top. Oil- Still fighting on the daily uptrend with the large gap down from the beginning of March fall, and while oil was down (bearish daily) it also sits above major support. The correlation...
If NZD and AUD rates are good there is a good chance for a rise.. but it will be seen FOMC is powerful
  • #69,293
  • Jun 24, 2020 4:50pm Jun 24, 2020 4:50pm
Quoting q_import
{quote} If NZD and AUD rates are good there is a good chance for a rise.. but it will be seen FOMC is powerful
Right, AUD is another that is around 90% correlated with equities recently.
  • #69,294
  • Jun 24, 2020 4:59pm Jun 24, 2020 4:59pm
Quoting mmccormac
{quote} Right, AUD is another that is around 90% correlated with equities recently.
Well lets see if they pay back there loans there interest rates on borrowing went up.
  • #69,295
  • Jun 24, 2020 5:10pm Jun 24, 2020 5:10pm
Quoting q_import
{quote} Well lets see if they pay back there loans there interest rates on borrowing went up.
Are you talking about the swap lines set up by the Fed for liquidity?
  • #69,296
  • Jun 24, 2020 5:12pm Jun 24, 2020 5:12pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I can see it below that R. I dont want to write off 1297.. I think it should have closed -1248 for bear day, It missed some.
Lets edit this some. The close missed the bear mark. The open was under the bear mark. It was that close. This is not bullish
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #69,297
  • Jun 24, 2020 5:20pm Jun 24, 2020 5:20pm
Everyone is so "tweet shy" to make a conviction. I say eu sits on a banana peel.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #69,298
  • Jun 24, 2020 5:27pm Jun 24, 2020 5:27pm
Quoting gatorinla
Everyone is so "tweet shy" to make a conviction. I say eu sits on a banana peel.
Based on where the correlations sit atm & the Fed’s drunken buying during the Asia session I expect the Euro will climb the banana tree up & then slide back down after inflicting enough pain on everyone that sold the bottom.

Edit: I see the case for shorts though... It’s just one of those days where everything was —almost— a signal... If equities don’t break out north from this bear flag by end of Asia then it’s probably a bear confirmation getting ready to happen on Euro & I’ll adjust.
  • #69,299
  • Jun 24, 2020 7:16pm Jun 24, 2020 7:16pm
corona is on a up trajectory (the last 2 weeks HL and HH). Its back near April highs. It looks like passing out the small pox blankets, is on purpose.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #69,300
  • Jun 24, 2020 7:24pm Jun 24, 2020 7:24pm
EU 6/24/2020 trading levels... next to print 1273 or 1240

WP R2 ----------1.1347
RU R3 ----------1.1330
DP R2 ----------1.1323
DP R1 ----------1.1304
WP R1 ----------1.1303
RU R2 ----------1.1295
DP PP ----------1.1274
RU R1 ----------1.1273
DP S1 ----------1.1245
MP R2 ----------1.1240
WP PP ----------1.1233
RU S1 ----------1.1231
DP S2 ----------1.1226
RU S2 ----------1.1209
DP S3 ----------1.1196
RU S3 ----------1.1174
WP S1 ----------1.1162
MP R1 ----------1.1151
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