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Let's Trade Options

  • #17,721
  • Jun 21, 2020 6:07pm Jun 21, 2020 6:07pm
Quoting Evasparkling
Do you expect all four trades to be in profit when iv rises?
Probably not, but it's not impossible. If their iv's rose high enough, all of the options' values could have increased.

The problem with playing for rising iv's currently is: we are coming off an historic volatility jump that persisted through Q2 and iv's are still quite elevated, comparatively. To make money on the spreads, I am looking for AAL to move closer to one or the other strike and I am also looking for the back week options iv's to come up along with the front week's.

Another way to profit potentially is to hold thru to the back week. If the front week's options expire worthless, I'd be left with a strangle at $11.50 and $23.00
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,722
  • Jun 21, 2020 6:18pm Jun 21, 2020 6:18pm
re: AAL, per se:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ameri...181142881.html

...they are about to dilute their stock by about 20%, there's no way the share value will not fall in the coming week....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,723
  • Jun 21, 2020 6:30pm Jun 21, 2020 6:30pm
Quoting The Fool
re: AAL, per se: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ameri...181142881.html ...they are about to dilute their stock by about 20%, there's no way the share value will not fall in the coming week....
I think that is the general consensus I have a few AAL puts for July 17th I am comfortable waiting till the week prior or week of to work look at.

Right now levels on the downside are $14.x and the small gap fill at $12.6
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  • #17,724
  • Jun 21, 2020 10:41pm Jun 21, 2020 10:41pm
well, I had my heart set on buying AAL stock under $5
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,725
  • Jun 22, 2020 7:34am Jun 22, 2020 7:34am
Quoting swimmax
{quote} I think that is the general consensus I have a few AAL puts for July 17th I am comfortable waiting till the week prior or week of to work look at. Right now levels on the downside are $14.x and the small gap fill at $12.6
Premarket AAL looks to be in the $14.6 range. We could see a return to $12 this week
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  • #17,726
  • Jun 22, 2020 10:10am Jun 22, 2020 10:10am
Quoting moneymaker2
In the following: AAL Jul17 15 PUT @ $1.78 Weekly chart is ready to move down in the next week or so....
Out of the following:

AAL Jul17 15 PUT @ $2.08 up from $1.78

Even the gap lower today didn't drop it below the 5EMA, so I'm out.....
  • #17,727
  • Jun 22, 2020 10:45am Jun 22, 2020 10:45am
Added to the following:

NIO Jul17 6 PUT @ $0.205 average, bringing the total average down to $0.33

Not a whole lot happening in the way of good option trades, so just having to play around to make a little money while waiting for something to show up. Maybe I'll just go fishing for a few days.....
  • #17,728
  • Jun 22, 2020 12:23pm Jun 22, 2020 12:23pm
Quoting moneymaker2
Not a whole lot happening in the way of good option trades, so just having to play around to make a little money while waiting for something to show up. Maybe I'll just go fishing for a few days.....
...I kind of expect sideways to slow grind upwards for the next month as we roll into Q2 earnings, with the usual wildcards popping or dropping the markets. The US Nov elections are a big vol instigator out on the horizon.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,729
  • Jun 24, 2020 12:59pm Jun 24, 2020 12:59pm
Quoting The Fool
...I kind of expect sideways to slow grind upwards for the next month as we roll into Q2 earnings,
ok....was today a wild card? News re: new outbreaks in the USA. I also heard there were lots of fund managers looking to do some end-of-quarter rebalancing - taking profits after the big equity rise in Q2. It was the biggest Q2 move in history....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,730
  • Jun 29, 2020 10:49pm Jun 29, 2020 10:49pm
Still nothing going on with any of the stocks I watch....I've got some bids in for NIO Jul17 6 PUT @ $0.15 just to trade something....looks ready to drop on weekly and monthly charts...plus it is odd the price went up and Relative Strength went down. It will probably increase some tomorrow, so might be able to get in a little cheaper...but I'll go for $0.15 to drop my overall average down to just over $0.25....

Other than that, I'll just wait until something starts moving in a manner that isn't up one day and down the next....
  • #17,731
  • Jun 29, 2020 10:56pm Jun 29, 2020 10:56pm
Quoting moneymaker2
I'll just wait until something starts moving in a manner that isn't up one day and down the next....
yeah, I'd like to see a bull trend into earnings. Drain the vol down a bit, because it's bound to come back around the elections.

Below is a chart of the Dec19 VXX $140 calls
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,732
  • Jun 30, 2020 12:08pm Jun 30, 2020 12:08pm
Quoting moneymaker2
Still nothing going on with any of the stocks I watch....I've got some bids in for NIO Jul17 6 PUT @ $0.15 just to trade something....looks ready to drop on weekly and monthly charts...plus it is odd the price went up and Relative Strength went down. It will probably increase some tomorrow, so might be able to get in a little cheaper...but I'll go for $0.15 to drop my overall average down to just over $0.25.... Other than that, I'll just wait until something starts moving in a manner that isn't up one day and down the next....
Added a cubic buttload to the following after the spike up:

NIO Jul17 6 PUT @ $0.09, which puts my average cost at $0.162

Should be decent money in the next couple of weeks....
  • #17,733
  • Jul 1, 2020 9:16pm Jul 1, 2020 9:16pm
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} Added a cubic buttload to the following after the spike up: NIO Jul17 6 PUT @ $0.09, which puts my average cost at $0.162 Should be decent money in the next couple of weeks....
Well, just got home and saw I added yet another buttload to the following:

NIO Jul17 6 PUT @ $0.05 which drops the average to $0.144

I had Hail Mary bids in for the $7 strike at $0.25, too, but it didn't make it below $0.26 looks like. I actually didn't expect the bids to get hit at $0.05, but since they did, that gives me a mega buttload of these, so even a small move in price will be good money.

And now, we wait.....
  • #17,734
  • Jul 2, 2020 10:27am Jul 2, 2020 10:27am
*sigh*...ok, couldn't let it go, so added some more:

NIO Jul17 6 PUT @ $0.03 which drops the average to $0.087

I now officially have more contracts than any one person should have on a security, but they were just so cheap I couldn't help myself.....
  • #17,735
  • Jul 7, 2020 2:38pm Jul 7, 2020 2:38pm
Heard from one of my trading friends who says he knows a marketmaker for NIO stock....says he thinks that there may be some push from Chinese businesses to drive this stock up more than it should be, and then selling it all...kind of like an old pump and dump. Don't know if this is true, but all the charts are showing a very extreme overbought condition. And really, not much to make the company worth roughly twice as much in less than a week. I guess we will know if that is the case if the stock drops to around $8 shortly....and quickly....

That being said, I took a risk and got in the following:

NIO July17 13 PUT @ $1.65
NIO Aug21 8 PUT @ $0.65

That huge gap yesterday and the giant run up today will probably make the $6 PUTs worthless, but it all depends on when it drops. These should make up for any loss of the $6 PUTs, though.....
  • #17,736
  • Jul 8, 2020 8:51am Jul 8, 2020 8:51am
I have puts on three of the big airline stocks after the government loan announcement. Because we all know the government is horrible at trading (i.e. GM)

all expire aug 21 each currently ATM except AAL which i have at $13 still holding that one.
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  • #17,737
  • Jul 8, 2020 2:07pm Jul 8, 2020 2:07pm
Quoting swimmax
I have puts on three of the big airline stocks after the government loan announcement. Because we all know the government is horrible at trading (i.e. GM) all expire aug 21 each currently ATM except AAL which i have at $13 still holding that one.
AAL earnings are out in 2-3 weeks - iv's will rise up to the ER date, and crash afterwards. If I had long puts itm I'd probably cash them out a day or so before the ER
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,738
  • Jul 17, 2020 5:33pm Jul 17, 2020 5:33pm
Quoting moneymaker2
*sigh*...ok, couldn't let it go, so added some more: NIO Jul17 6 PUT @ $0.03 which drops the average to $0.087 I now officially have more contracts than any one person should have on a security, but they were just so cheap I couldn't help myself.....
Busy day today. Way more computer time than normal.

In the following:

FDX Aug21 140 PUT @ $0.98

Should be good for some decent money....UPS is starting to look good for PUTs in a week or two....


Finished getting out of the following over a period of many days:

NIO Jul17 6 PUT @ $0.044 average down from $0.087 average, so a loss there....

And out of the following:

NIO Jul17 13 PUT @ $2.485 average up from $1.65
NIO Aug21 8 PUT @ $0.85 up from $0.65

All that trading of NIO and when the smoke clears, I only lost ~$275 on todays $6 PUTs, which I am VERY happy with since it gapped up so many times. However, I still believe there is much more downside towards $9.40 at least to fill that gap, and probably around $7.50 so....

Back in the following:

NIO Aug21 8 PUT @ $0.70
  • #17,739
  • Jul 20, 2020 2:40pm Jul 20, 2020 2:40pm
Added to the following:

NIO Aug21 8 PUT @ $0.48 bringing the average down to $0.553
  • #17,740
  • Jul 30, 2020 10:02pm Jul 30, 2020 10:02pm
Looking to get into SPY Aug21 PUTs between $305-$310 strike price before the close tomorrow. Looks like we may get a bounce tomorrow, so I want to get in $310 less than $2, but I'll take whatever is cheapest at the peak tomorrow.
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