The Swamp | Page 3440 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread
Attachments: The Swamp
Exit Attachments

The Swamp

  • #68,781
  • Jun 19, 2020 9:28pm Jun 19, 2020 9:28pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} TP out + chase last out 1187 +50 {image}
You partied again Friday night without me.
Happy for the pips there!
Peace is more valuable than success.
LifeDrifts v1 [automated] All Time Return: -0.1%
  • #68,782
  • Jun 19, 2020 9:38pm Jun 19, 2020 9:38pm
Quoting gellowmellow
need this weekly/today candle to close below 1224
Good morning! Even closed below weekly SMA100 and 1188. Time to attack the wick of this daily candle next week, as long as the wedge resistance doesn’t break (looking for longs once it does, also around 1060).

Heading to challenge monthly open at 1113, 2 weeks left rebalancing again?
Peace is more valuable than success.
LifeDrifts v1 [automated] All Time Return: -0.1%
  • #68,783
  • Jun 19, 2020 10:25pm Jun 19, 2020 10:25pm
Quoting tullamulla
Hi people! Just curious. At what point were you sure the market had reversed after that massive green candle? What was your confirmation? I got into a trade on the candle after the 2 red candles (hourly chart). Was that too conservative? Was there better confirmation earlier? Cheers
Don't/Never be sure that it reversed...

H struggled to enter 55-6x R, so next candle aggressive ones will sell when PA goes below the candle close of massive green (1238).
But then again that next candle might just go higher after going lower in some/most cases - exit plan comes here.

Myself alone, I switch with some technicals depends on how significant they are atm.
I see H4 SMA100 in play with EU and some other USD pairs lately, so I'll just place a sell there blindly (around 1239 that time I think) and decide what happens if it starts challenging my 1272.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image3.png Size: 30 KB
Peace is more valuable than success.
LifeDrifts v1 [automated] All Time Return: -0.1%
  • #68,784
  • Jun 20, 2020 1:40am Jun 20, 2020 1:40am
Quoting gellowmellow
{quote} Good morning! Even closed below weekly SMA100 and 1188. Time to attack the wick of this daily candle next week, as long as the wedge resistance doesn’t break (looking for longs once it does, also around 1060). Heading to challenge monthly open at 1113, 2 weeks left rebalancing again?
Bigger Macro at 095x. Coming this month and next month
  • #68,785
  • Jun 20, 2020 4:48am Jun 20, 2020 4:48am
Something is gonna hit the fan soon....on most currencies

Assets managers on the JPY and MXN went all in longs....
Short side of the dealers on the USD disappeared....from 36% to 0% this week

Attached Image

Interesting weeks ahead
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #68,786
  • Jun 20, 2020 5:27am Jun 20, 2020 5:27am
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} Smack on the daily uptrend. I'd like to see it break too, should be a good ride down but dangerous here

if I had kept it, it would be working really well.. instead I wimped out thinking Friday madness... the 73.38 short I took after is working out... first target 72.72 and final for me is 72.58

then will look elsewhere for a signal

cheers
  • #68,787
  • Jun 20, 2020 6:28am Jun 20, 2020 6:28am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} week eu engulfed bear.. week usdx engulfed bull
The wedge is still unbroken valid. Bears need to take it out or bounce. I will post another chart showing pa is still above the 38.2 fib at the same point.

Some think this is me being bullish or bearish. No its me showing both sides. If the bears want to continue, take out the bulls hope. Or vice versa for bulls bounce. Most trades have valid points for either side. Its best to be educated to avoid some surprises.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 30 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #68,788
  • Jun 20, 2020 6:36am Jun 20, 2020 6:36am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The wedge is still unbroken valid. Bears need to take it out or bounce. I will post another chart showing pa is still above the 38.2 fib at the same point. Some think this is me being bullish or bearish. No its me showing both sides. If the bears want to continue, take out the bulls hope. Or vice versa for bulls bounce. Most trades have valid points for either side. Its best to be educated to avoid some surprises. {image}
;
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 32 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #68,789
  • Jun 20, 2020 8:58am Jun 20, 2020 8:58am
The DX closed NY Friday at a Very influential support / resistance level (97.66) that was in play at least as far back as 1986 (limit of the chart I'm looking at). There's a period from November 1989 when support here broke and it didn't punch back up through again until July 1997. The DX went down to lows of about 78 during those seven and a half years. It came back up to 97 and roughly 97.35 twice in total and was turned back here each time. When it broke up again it reached appx. 120 at the end of 2001. When it broke down here again in September 2003 it never made it back up again until March 2015.(Eleven and a half years).That time it bottomed around 71.50. In more recent years, it broke down here in June 2017 to bottom around 88. In late 2018 -early 2019 it touched virtually this exact level three times, and got knocked down each time to the lowest point at roughly 95. Since then it traveled sideways above and below this line, but many times it touched here and then changed direction from both sides. I'm sorry I can't post the charts right now, (and to see the picture clearly you need to switch from day-month-year and zoom in and out.) but it stands out very clearly as being an amazingly pivotal point right exactly Here.
  • #68,790
  • Jun 20, 2020 9:10am Jun 20, 2020 9:10am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The wedge is still unbroken valid. Bears need to take it out or bounce. I will post another chart showing pa is still above the 38.2 fib at the same point. Some think this is me being bullish or bearish. No its me showing both sides. If the bears want to continue, take out the bulls hope. Or vice versa for bulls bounce. Most trades have valid points for either side. Its best to be educated to avoid some surprises. {image}
Thanks Gator. When you're on a ladder it's best to have an idea what's above and below.
  • #68,791
  • Jun 20, 2020 9:27am Jun 20, 2020 9:27am
Quoting jaylovin
{quote} if I had kept it, it would be working really well.. instead I wimped out thinking Friday madness... the 73.38 short I took after is working out... first target 72.72 and final for me is 72.58 then will look elsewhere for a signal cheers

Glad you got in again and it went your way the second time around Buddy. I saw it drop soon after you got out of it. It seems to be breaking it's daily uptrend line. The AU does also, and the Friday close and weekly pinbars look bearish.
  • #68,792
  • Jun 20, 2020 9:30am Jun 20, 2020 9:30am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The wedge is still unbroken valid. Bears need to take it out or bounce. I will post another chart showing pa is still above the 38.2 fib at the same point. Some think this is me being bullish or bearish. No its me showing both sides. If the bears want to continue, take out the bulls hope. Or vice versa for bulls bounce. Most trades have valid points for either side. Its best to be educated to avoid some surprises. {image}

Do you give any significance to the second last candle here in the wedge being bear engulfing? Also the low close on that candle is below the four previous candles
  • #68,793
  • Jun 20, 2020 9:34am Jun 20, 2020 9:34am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} ; {image}
Afternoon Gator,
is this chart 4H handles abased on NewYork time (UTC-4)?

I see it on this chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro 20-06-2020.png Size: 133 KB
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #68,794
  • Jun 20, 2020 11:49am Jun 20, 2020 11:49am
next week seems pretty set in stone
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 21 KB
twitter: @gettoefl
  • #68,795
  • Jun 20, 2020 12:56pm Jun 20, 2020 12:56pm
Quoting gettoefl
next week seems pretty set in stone {image}
Which Line or Box?
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #68,796
  • Jun 20, 2020 1:29pm Jun 20, 2020 1:29pm
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} Which Line or Box?
if she she goes to the lower box early in the week, then as the lines show she will confirm this low later in the week

if she stays at the higher, then the line shows her going to the higher later in the week
twitter: @gettoefl
  • #68,797
  • Jun 20, 2020 1:46pm Jun 20, 2020 1:46pm
Quoting gettoefl
{quote} if she she goes to the lower box early in the week, then as the lines show she will confirm this low later in the week if she stays at the higher, then the line shows her going to the higher later in the week
ok
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #68,798
  • Jun 20, 2020 5:03pm Jun 20, 2020 5:03pm
Quoting gellowmellow
{quote} Don't/Never be sure that it reversed... H struggled to enter 55-6x R, so next candle aggressive ones will sell when PA goes below the candle close of massive green (1238). But then again that next candle might just go higher after going lower in some/most cases - exit plan comes here. Myself alone, I switch with some technicals depends on how significant they are atm. I see H4 SMA100 in play with EU and some other USD pairs lately, so I'll just place a sell there blindly (around 1239 that time I think) and decide what happens if it starts...
Thanks mate. I wasn't following the daily chart but turns out it was a low risk high reward trade with a stop above the previous candle. Gonna be following it more now.

Also looking at the weekly and daily, think we will move upwards after 113x/4x?
  • #68,799
  • Jun 21, 2020 4:39am Jun 21, 2020 4:39am
This is not bullish. It should be safer to look for sell opportunities imrho
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20200621-103743_IG Trading.jpg Size: 426 KB
  • #68,800
  • Jun 21, 2020 9:24am Jun 21, 2020 9:24am
Happy Father's Day to you all out there.. ... a lot
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.png Size: 1.4 MB
223 traders viewing now