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Let's Trade Options

  • #17,701
  • Jun 17, 2020 12:25am Jun 17, 2020 12:25am
Well, out of the 365 stocks/indexes that I monitor, zero are showing any clear direction on the Daily charts....several showing a downward move approaching on the Weekly charts, and a mixed bag on the Monthly charts, with more showing an upward bias than a downward bias...but not much of a move up as far as size goes.

Too much up and down movement recently...most things are just following the major indexes.....like a bunch of jellyfish....moving a little bit on their own but mainly just stuck following the current.....
  • #17,702
  • Jun 17, 2020 12:43am Jun 17, 2020 12:43am
Quoting moneymaker2
Well, out of the 365 stocks/indexes that I monitor, zero are showing any clear direction on the Daily charts....several showing a downward move approaching on the Weekly charts, and a mixed bag on the Monthly charts, with more showing an upward bias than a downward bias...but not much of a move up as far as size goes. Too much up and down movement recently...most things are just following the major indexes.....like a bunch of jellyfish....moving a little bit on their own but mainly just stuck following the current.....
Agreed that there's no clear direction. Looking at multiple timeframes like Daily, Weekly and Monthly just makes me even more confused at this point. Like you said earlier, gotta be nimble in this market. Unrealized profits turn to unrealized losses very frequently and quickly in this ranging market
  • #17,703
  • Jun 17, 2020 1:16am Jun 17, 2020 1:16am
Regardless of direction, iv's will start ramping up toward the ER release date for most names. This is a tradeable phenomenon that makes up a big part of many options traders' mo. The strategy I use to catch this move (again, a move in iv, not a directional move) is calendars that bracket the earnings date. (As per AAL double calendar mentioned above.) If you enter well when iv's are low, you can catch profits almost regardless of movement in the underlying. We are about a month out from the meat of Q2 earnings season....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,704
  • Jun 17, 2020 1:41am Jun 17, 2020 1:41am
Quoting The Fool
Regardless of direction, iv's will start ramping up toward the ER release date for most names. This is a tradeable phenomenon that makes up a big part of many options traders' mo. The strategy I use to catch this move (again, a move in iv, not a directional move) is calendars that bracket the earnings date. (As per AAL double calendar mentioned above.) If you enter well when iv's are low, you can catch profits almost regardless of movement in the underlying. We are about a month out from the meat of Q2 earnings season....
Ah yes, IVs will start going up. Sorry but what's this strategy?

Are you referring to the calendar spread? https://www.investopedia.com/article...s-strategy.asp
  • #17,705
  • Jun 17, 2020 2:08am Jun 17, 2020 2:08am
yes, calendars benefit from rising iv's, same as diagonals. The strategy is simply buy calendars when iv's are low, maybe a month out from the ER date, and sell out of them a day or so before the ER, or hold thru the ER. Iv's crash after the ER. Hard to show a plot that demonstrates unless you go back prior to march, when of course there was a massive vol spike in everything.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,706
  • Jun 17, 2020 2:15am Jun 17, 2020 2:15am
if you go on youtube and search "earnings calendar" you will see dozens of vids. This is a common strategy.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,707
  • Jun 17, 2020 12:43pm Jun 17, 2020 12:43pm
Nothing much happening....

I am looking at July CCL and NCLH puts and prices are not moving there.

Powell has everyone at a standstill right now but the bulls are fighting
forex forex forex
  • #17,708
  • Jun 17, 2020 2:27pm Jun 17, 2020 2:27pm
Quoting swimmax
Nothing much happening....
...I think Q2 earnings are going to show a lot of ghastly wounds, then the election drama will be heating up. I'd like to see an approach to ath's across all indices as a place to start building short positions for Oct/Nov.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,709
  • Jun 18, 2020 1:45pm Jun 18, 2020 1:45pm
I don't trade currencies much anymore, but UUP has some liquid options I might take a shot on....

the annual range has been $4 or less....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2020-06-18_1144uupbull.png Size: 143 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,710
  • Jun 18, 2020 2:45pm Jun 18, 2020 2:45pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} AAL earnings are out the following week, iv's will be ramping up. I am trying to fill calendars at Jul/24/30 - $12 puts and $23 calls
I did this double calendar, except @ $11.50 puts...total net debit @ 22c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,711
  • Jun 18, 2020 3:07pm Jun 18, 2020 3:07pm
in the last 1/2 hr, bot SPY Jun29 $321 calls for $1.30. will spread on it tomorrow
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,712
  • Jun 18, 2020 10:01pm Jun 18, 2020 10:01pm
Quoting The Fool
in the last 1/2 hr, bot SPY Jun29 $321 calls for $1.30. will spread on it tomorrow
Stay nimble! With it butting up against resistance (mid-BB) on the Daily chart, it looks like it is going to be headed towards the $300-$305 level next, so consider taking profit where you can....
  • #17,713
  • Jun 19, 2020 1:51am Jun 19, 2020 1:51am
Quoting moneymaker2
Stay nimble! ...
...never bad advice. I'm looking for a good setup off a >.5% rise in overnight futures so far. We'll see if that holds....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,714
  • Jun 19, 2020 2:22pm Jun 19, 2020 2:22pm
IN THE LAST 1/2 hr I bot jun19 $310 calls for 30c and then sold them for 80c. I don't scalp options too frequently but witchin Fridays last 1-2 hrs are good bets for decent swings...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,715
  • Edited 3:06pm Jun 19, 2020 2:34pm | Edited 3:06pm
Quoting The Fool
In the last hr today I bot Jun22 SPY $314 calls for $1.50 then sold Jun19 $315 calls for $1.30
the $315 calls are near worthless and the $314's are dithering around a buck, if SPY would pop into the close I might get $1.20 or more for the Monday calls

....well, nope, will hold them for a chance Monday
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,716
  • Jun 19, 2020 2:58pm Jun 19, 2020 2:58pm
Quoting The Fool
IN THE LAST 1/2 hr I bot jun19 $310 calls for 30c and then sold them for 80c. I don't scalp options too frequently but witchin Fridays last 1-2 hrs are good bets for decent swings...
...with my winnings I bot Dec18 SDS $27/30/33 fly calls for 12c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,717
  • Jun 19, 2020 3:02pm Jun 19, 2020 3:02pm
Quoting The Fool
in the last 1/2 hr, bot SPY Jun29 $321 calls for $1.30. will spread on it tomorrow
...holding, missed my chance for a good spread early
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,718
  • Jun 20, 2020 4:51pm Jun 20, 2020 4:51pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}I did this double calendar, except @ $11.50 puts...total net debit @ 22c
Quick Question:

So you’re in the following trades:

AAL JUL 24 2020
$23 CALL


AAL JUL 30 2020
$23 CALL

AAL JUL 24 2020
$11.50 PUT

AAL JUL 30 2020
$11.50 PUT
  • #17,719
  • Jun 21, 2020 1:15am Jun 21, 2020 1:15am
yes, short the front week & long the back week, it's called a calendar spread. Calendars that bracket the earnings release date are designed to capitalize on rising iv's up to the ER date.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,720
  • Jun 21, 2020 6:45am Jun 21, 2020 6:45am
Quoting The Fool
yes, short the front week & long the back week, it's called a calendar spread. Calendars that bracket the earnings release date are designed to capitalize on rising iv's up to the ER date.
Safe to assume that this trade is a move in iv not a directional move,

Meaning that we’re expecting to profit from the trade as a result of rising iv,

Do you expect all four trades to be in profit when iv rises?
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