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Gejordan Weekly Journal

  • #1,101
  • Jun 16, 2020 2:03pm Jun 16, 2020 2:03pm
Quoting fxonuoha
{quote} Hello sir Rearden I am trying to understand this chart. (1) is lower high. (2) is higher high (because it closed above previous high (1) and stayed above i.e at least another candle closed above (1)) (3) is higher high ( just for same reason as (2)) Question 1. why is the bearish pin bar at (3) not considered as following of rule 2 - retrace to top of channel? Question 2. what is the rationale for your lower trade entry instead of retrace to the blue line? {image}
Any chance you saw any of this differently? Do you completely agree with Rearden?
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,102
  • Jun 16, 2020 2:03pm Jun 16, 2020 2:03pm
Quoting Rearden
{quote} didnt trigger {image}
double hmmmmmm.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,103
  • Jun 16, 2020 3:21pm Jun 16, 2020 3:21pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Any chance you saw any of this differently? Do you completely agree with Rearden?
yes.
I see 5 as a retrace to 50sma which failed and 6 as a retrace entry to the edge of the channel (3) for long entry.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Perfection...a process,not a stage!
  • #1,104
  • Jun 16, 2020 3:27pm Jun 16, 2020 3:27pm
Quoting fxonuoha
{quote} yes. I see 5 as a retrace to 50sma which failed and 6 as a retrace entry to the edge of the channel (3) for long entry. {image}
How is 5 a failure if you want to be long at 6? That isn't the trading I've been showing.
So...let's start with...
Why do you have a pink line up top?
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,105
  • Edited 5:03pm Jun 16, 2020 4:53pm | Edited 5:03pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} How is 5 a failure if you want to be long at 6? That isn't the trading I've been showing. So...let's start with... Why do you have a pink line up top?
The pink line is the top of a larger range. 5 is a retrace to the edge of another channel which price broke through and also the retrace to the 50.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Perfection...a process,not a stage!
  • #1,106
  • Jun 16, 2020 6:05pm Jun 16, 2020 6:05pm
Quoting fxonuoha
{quote} The pink line is the top of a larger range. 5 is a retrace to the edge of another channel which price broke through and also the retrace to the 50. {image}
I know what the top pink line is... I mention the pink line for a very specific reason that I want you to think about. A reason that eliminates all the rest of the nonsense that you are doing when it comes to what I am showing here.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,107
  • Jun 16, 2020 8:14pm Jun 16, 2020 8:14pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} it's raining... have a minute to peak in.... hmmmmm. I did all that work back on 1079 and this is what I get in return.
Hi G,

Kindly see the chart. I will post a chart with the thought process soon.
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  • #1,108
  • Jun 16, 2020 8:17pm Jun 16, 2020 8:17pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} double hmmmmmm.
This was my thought process. Infact I was focusing on the 15, 16, 17,18 swing points from 1079 to see if the price was changing direction.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,109
  • Jun 16, 2020 8:31pm Jun 16, 2020 8:31pm
Quoting Rearden
{quote} This was my thought process. Infact I was focusing on the 15, 16, 17,18 swing points from 1079 to see if the price was changing direction. {image}
They are not the same. One bar of pullback and then continuing on is just a pause in price. Now go back and look at 1079 and see the difference. There was a bunch of action and then a push higher Here there was no action, just a pause at 7 and continue to 9.

NOW... let's cover two more problems...

First, I might try something like this... if what? I have mentioned it a few times. When would I get this aggressive?

Second, if you liked this as a switch to an up move and wanted a low risk long, why the heck wouldn't you enter straight away when you posted the picture? You weren't going to get any lower risk. So, even if I could live with the idea, the execution or lack thereof on going long was terrible. Why the hesitation? If you had time to post a pic, you had time to enter. I am guessing somewhere deep down you didn't feel sure about what you were trying.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,110
  • Jun 16, 2020 8:49pm Jun 16, 2020 8:49pm
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Hi G, Kindly see the chart. I will post a chart with the thought process soon. {image}
This is the correct chart. Still in a down move.

Look at it end of day and say, where do I want to trade? I have a stock/futures account with me so I put in a futures trade at the pivot and where I thought simple50 might be. The pivot entry was hit, I parked an entry just in front of the pivot. I woke up and was up about 20. While I slept it had been about 35. So I closed at 20 and canceled the simple50. Done for the day. As I mentioned, don't be greedy on the shorts in case we get a run up.

NOW, the orange arrow. Similar to your desire to go long at the bottom, we are still in a down move and up at the top of the range.... Alarm bells should go off. End of day, I park a short where a stop run might occur and go heavy. Covered the range so you could've taken as much as you could handle there.

Maybe you took the pivot or simple50 and took a loss. Or maybe you looked at them and said too much risk for me. Ok, but you still ended up at the top of the range yesterday with your lowest risk entry. If your someone with more time to trade, you could've waited to see if it broke the high and came back in. Still, in a down move, trading a NO BIAS week, with lowest risk entry.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,111
  • Jun 16, 2020 9:10pm Jun 16, 2020 9:10pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} They are not the same. One bar of pullback and then continuing on is just a pause in price. Now go back and look at 1079 and see the difference. There was a bunch of action and then a push higher Here there was no action, just a pause at 7 and continue to 9. NOW... let's cover two more problems... First, I might try something like this... if what? I have mentioned it a few times. When would I get this aggressive?
A: You will be aggressive
1. to signal a change in direction.
2. price is moving in a direction opposite to your bias and then price switches in favour of your bias by break and hold above or below your swing...

Second, if you liked this as a switch to an up move and wanted a low risk long, why the heck wouldn't you enter straight away when you posted the picture? You weren't going to get any lower risk. So, even if I could live with the idea, the execution or lack thereof on going long was terrible. Why the hesitation? If you had time to post a pic, you had time to enter. I am guessing somewhere deep down you didn't feel sure about what you were trying.

A: yes Ge, I was hesitating because I saw the break and hold at #10 but initially didnt realise price held above(aggressive swing I marked). Right when I posted the chart,I had already missed the optimal entry at the open @1231. Then I thought... anyway I missed the entry, let me try for a retrace entry as close to it as possible.
  • #1,112
  • Jun 17, 2020 2:59am Jun 17, 2020 2:59am
Quoting Rearden
{quote} A: You will be aggressive 1. to signal a change in direction. 2. price is moving in a direction opposite to your bias and then price switches in favour of your bias by break and hold above or below your swing... Second, if you liked this as a switch to an up move and wanted a low risk long, why the heck wouldn't you enter straight away when you posted the picture? You weren't going to get any lower risk. So, even if I could live with the idea, the execution or lack thereof on going long was terrible. Why the hesitation? If you had time to...
I'm aggressive when I have a directional bias for the week and price switches to that bias. Keep things simple.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,113
  • Jun 17, 2020 6:44am Jun 17, 2020 6:44am
took a short today. I had doubts if I am taking it after the move has already happened yesterday. So i reduced the size and took from the pivot. +48 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,114
  • Jun 17, 2020 7:15am Jun 17, 2020 7:15am
Quoting Rearden
took a short today. I had doubts if I am taking it after the move has already happened yesterday. So i reduced the size and took from the pivot. +48 pips {image}
You followed the basic rules and had a great trade. Keep it that simple.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,115
  • Jun 18, 2020 9:40am Jun 18, 2020 9:40am
My smaller position got triggered. The higher one was missed for 1 or 2 pips. target was at 1202. But I exited when it was just missed and the price started coming up. +33 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,116
  • Jun 18, 2020 10:20am Jun 18, 2020 10:20am
Quoting Rearden
My smaller position got triggered. The higher one was missed for 1 or 2 pips. target was at 1202. But I exited when it was just missed and the price started coming up. +33 pips {image}
Now you're trading. Not so hard when you just do the simple things.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,117
  • Jun 18, 2020 5:23pm Jun 18, 2020 5:23pm
Ok, Rearden... we've hit Friday and the chart is showing something interesting. This is the great part of having had two great trades for the week, so you don't have to mess around with Friday action.

Hopefully you can see what I'm talking about.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,118
  • Edited Jun 19, 2020 12:06am Jun 18, 2020 6:42pm | Edited Jun 19, 2020 12:06am
Quoting gejordan
Ok, Rearden... we've hit Friday and the chart is showing something interesting. This is the great part of having had two great trades for the week, so you don't have to mess around with Friday action. Hopefully you can see what I'm talking about.
Hi Ge,

I will share what I see. I could be wrong here trying to read too much.

The price has pushed and stayed lower. It has also reached the 1200 BRN area(and is respecting that area) which is where it was during first week of June and pushed up. So we have to be cautious about further push lower until it breaks those lows. Also, the break and hold above the white line may indicate further push up.

Please correct me if I am wrong.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,119
  • Jun 19, 2020 6:10am Jun 19, 2020 6:10am
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Hi Ge, I will share what I see. I could be wrong here trying to read too much. The price has pushed and stayed lower. It has also reached the 1200 BRN area(and is respecting that area) which is where it was during first week of June and pushed up. So we have to be cautious about further push lower until it breaks those lows. Also, the break and hold above the white line may indicate further push up. Please correct me if I am wrong. {image}
Too much, although what you say might be true.

The point I was trying to make... Price did push and stay lower. Which means we have to now find the swing which will mark the change in direction. The simple50 was sitting at an "a" swing location at the end of the day. Had price gone up to the simple50 overnight, it could have actually started a change of direction. So, it's nice to have made pips early in the week and use Friday to let price settle in wherever it may and start fresh the next week without the risk of price changing direction while I sleep.

Now, it didn't do that overnight, went to the pivot and dropped 20. It may continue on down. You never know. But, the point is, it's nice to be able to stand down on Friday when you have a big week and give yourself a break. Help condition yourself that its ok to not be going at it all the time. That you don't have to catch every move and you can do just fine. Learn to appreciate what you did during the week and not focus on the idea that you have to catch everything. Price may drop 100 pips today, but it's okay. I have left all kinds of pips on the table and still had really good months just doing this kind of simple trading. Not going at it on Friday is a nice way of combatting the ETB.

Yes, I have shown some Friday trades, but I was around to manage them and specific things came together for me to take them (also, I took them to show more examples of what we are doing, so keep that in mind, this is a thread where I am showing something). But, if they increased my chances of taking a loss, why bother, especially on a week when I have already done well. Go do something else you enjoy instead. Don't let the addictive nature of Forex control the rest of your life.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,120
  • Edited 8:41pm Jun 19, 2020 10:09am | Edited 8:41pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Too much, although what you say might be true. The point I was trying to make... Price did push and stay lower. Which means we have to now find the swing which will mark the change in direction. The simple50 was sitting at an "a" swing location at the end of the day. Had price gone up to the simple50 overnight, it could have actually started a change of direction. So, it's nice to have made pips early in the week and use Friday to let price settle in wherever it may and start fresh the next week without the risk of price changing direction...
Yes. The desire to catch every move and the disappointment when missing one is quite a battle to overcome. I always think "What part of chart am I not seeing and what am I missing which prevented me from seeing that trade at the right time." Then it reflects in the next trade.

I was reading an article on risk which explains how any system(not their system... any system) with a 0.2% expectancy and 1.5% risk can be provide a very good return. The summary of the article was that such a small % of risk doesn't mean your account will NOT grow. Infact it will grow faster (considering Compounding )and steadily depending on how you stick to the plan.

Ge, I didnt understand when you say "The simple 50 was sitting at an "a" swing location at the end of the day. " What is an "a" swing location? Could you please explain on it a bit please. I ask this because all the while when you say pivot I was hearing/thinking support and resistance line.....until those 1060 ish to 1070ish posts..... Then after that, when I went again from post 945 it made a lot more sense.

Thank you very much the post. Good weekend.

PS: With regards to identifying swing which will mark the change in direction. Its same as post 1118 because there was no break and hold to the high or low of that swing.
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