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vsa with Malcolm

  • #33,141
  • Jun 8, 2020 9:10am Jun 8, 2020 9:10am
Quoting Anotan
Ever notice when I post people stop posting? That can't be good.
Think of it this way:

(1) Your posts are so good that they raise the bar.

(2) People are studying and learning from your posts, which will result in an explosion of posts once the information has been adopted and internalized.

(3) Your words and analysis don't leave much, if any, fodder for the trolls and haters.

I"ve been wanting to post this for days. Your influence is all over it. THANK YOU.

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Please keep posting. Silence is by no means indicative of a lack of gratitude or a disdain for your work.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #33,142
  • Jun 8, 2020 10:42pm Jun 8, 2020 10:42pm
Quoting Anotan
Someone else posted the first video on another thread. Started watching the series and I can see some issues he talks about in myself. Posting these just in case they may help anyone else. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgaTlTfQnZI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffGX7IZ8mbc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6i4xPdCQ-L8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s8hg-1Rfs7c
i have been absorbing it as much as i can.

Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Think of it this way: (1) Your posts are so good that they raise the bar. (2) People are studying and learning from your posts, which will result in an explosion of posts once the information has been adopted and internalized. (3) Your words and analysis don't leave much, if any, fodder for the trolls and haters. I"ve been wanting to post this for days. Your influence is all over it. THANK YOU. {image} Please keep posting. Silence is by no means indicative of a lack of gratitude or a disdain for your work.
i absolutely agree with HG. may be i couldn't explain that way but he gave words to my feelings. thank you.

Recently all i had, were losses. My greed and fear both led me to to miss big trains of UJ, EC and UCHF. It took me time to disconnect myself. and watching workshop of mark douglas on psychological aspects of trading i felt myself better.

i'll post my trades with comments and the silly mistakes i made based on fear and greed.

and once again;
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Silence is by no means indicative of a lack of gratitude or a disdain for your work.
thank you anotan.
  • #33,143
  • Jun 9, 2020 2:26am Jun 9, 2020 2:26am
Looking at the daily open of the last 3 days, price has spent to majority of the day either above or below the daily open. There have been a few dips were price goes below the open but it doesn't stay there long. I consider this a trending market, buy above the open sell below the open.

Today in Asia UJ tried to touch yesterdays trigger number on Bar A but couldn't do it, a few bars later a down bar taking price lower which is very bearish. There is a ND, the volume on the ND is crazy low compared to the previous bar, no serious buyers were willing to take price higher.

One thing is price loves to return to climatic volume, back on May 29th there was climatic volume and with the weakness over head its a safe bet that price will want to return back to the May29th levels.
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  • #33,144
  • Jun 9, 2020 6:55am Jun 9, 2020 6:55am
Quoting Anotan
Looking at the daily open of the last 3 days, price has spent to majority of the day either above or below the daily open. There have been a few dips were price goes below the open but it doesn't stay there long. I consider this a trending market, buy above the open sell below the open. Today in Asia UJ tried to touch yesterdays trigger number on Bar A but couldn't do it, a few bars later a down bar taking price lower which is very bearish. There is a ND, the volume on the ND is crazy low compared to the previous bar, no serious buyers were willing...
Ended up closing this for -3.
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  • #33,145
  • Jun 9, 2020 10:04am Jun 9, 2020 10:04am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} Ended up closing this for -3. {image}
It would be a winner trade, if you didnt closed it manually, your entry was good and sl placement was good too, i'm just curious why did you close manually?
  • #33,146
  • Jun 9, 2020 4:15pm Jun 9, 2020 4:15pm
Just a few charts to share. I'm feeling lazy so I won't say much. If anybody wants to discuss a particular interval just refer to the chart and the interval label (or relation to an interval). See below for an example.

Chart A:

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I took this trade in SIM while surfing the net during the evening.

Chart A (7) and (8): A great way to look for trades in a Supply/Demand Delta Zone is to look for evidence of Demand (Buying) followed by evidence of a lack of Supply (Selling). (7) is an EvR interval which technically shows Demand and not evidence of a lack of Supply. However, when (8) closes above the high of (7), we know that those who sold on (7) are now trapped.

Chart B:

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Chart C:

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Chart D:

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This trade was missed because the ND (4) was not touching the Supply/Demand Delta Zone.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #33,147
  • Jun 10, 2020 12:37am Jun 10, 2020 12:37am
Quoting Cyberforex
{quote} It would be a winner trade, if you didnt closed it manually, your entry was good and sl placement was good too, i'm just curious why did you close manually?
I was spooked by this bar, when I saw this bar I debated heavily about closing it but decided I would hold it and see what happens. Which obviously I closed the position as price returned to my entry.

There was a lot of activity on that bar and price moved very little from the previous close, which I took it as buyers coming in. (And not to mention the following bar was a test).

I'm still processing the whole situation, so I don't really have much else to say about it.
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  • #33,148
  • Jun 10, 2020 1:00pm Jun 10, 2020 1:00pm
Today was one of those days. If you trade for any length of time, you will have them. While learning from losses is a worthwhile goal, if not a necessity, the ultimate goal is learning to mitigate loss (capital preservation) so you can trade another day. As I like to remind myself, "The Smart Money is not the Smart Money because they never lose; they're the Smart Money because they lose better." Which is why I said mitigate loss rather than eliminate it.

Take a look at the chart below:

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Two trades, two losses.

Trade 1:

(1) The "start point" for me is Ultra High/Climatic Volume. These volume bars are the clearest signal that the Smart Money is active. In this case, we have a widespread UP interval on Climatic Volume (Dark Blue) that closes well off its high. The close tells us that there must have been some selling in this interval. This is Supply. We are starting to see Supply (Selling) in a Supply/Demand Delta Zone.

(a) This interval closes DOWN from the previous interval, thus confirming the weakness.

(2) After seeing evidence of Supply (Selling) in a Supply/Demand Delta Zone, I want to see evidence of a lack of Demand (Buying). This interval is an UP interval closing off its high on volume less than the previous two intervals. This is No Demand.

(a) The next interval closes DOWN and confirms the No Demand. I'm looking to enter at the close of this interval/the open of the next.

I have a 10 tick stop and 20 tick target.

(b) The entry interval has a narrow range and increasing volume. This is Effort versus Result (EvR). Sh*t. The next interval closes UP and confirms the strength. The interval after that closes above the high of my entry bar. I, along with many others, am trapped. My stop is quickly hit. Sh*t.

No Trade:

(3) & (a) An UP bar on volume less than the previous two intervals, No Demand. Which is confirmed with the next interval DOWN.

I'm willing to jump back in Short, but neither the ND interval nor the confirmation interval has at least one tick on or in the Supply/Demand Zone. Yesterday I posted a nice trade that looked similar. But maintaining discipline dictates not taking this trade.

Trade 2:

(4) A widespread UP bar with increasing volume that closes in the lower 25% of its range. This is an Up Thrust. The next interval closes DOWN and confirms the Up Thrust. This Up Thrust is not evidence of a lack of Demand (Buying), it is more evidence of Supply (Selling). However, Up Thrusts represent some of the best trade signals. Just read MTM.

(a) confirmation.

(b) I enter on the open. The interval turns out to be a narrow range DOWN interval on volume less than the previous two intervals. This is a Test. Sh*t. The next interval closes UP which confirms the Test. And since it closed above the high of the Test, we know that there are traders (myself among them) that are trapped.

I flatten my position 1 tick below my 10 tick stop. Sh*t.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #33,149
  • Jun 10, 2020 7:47pm Jun 10, 2020 7:47pm
Quoting HiddenGap
"The Smart Money is not the Smart Money because they never lose; they're the Smart Money because they lose better."
I appreciate your post.

This thread does need more losing trades, they are unavoidable.
  • #33,150
  • Jun 10, 2020 10:17pm Jun 10, 2020 10:17pm
AUD..

On June 9th during the Aud session there is a nice hidden up thrust with expansion volume (big increase in volume compared to the previous bar). Yesterday on FOMC Wednesday price couldn't close above the trigger number from June 9th expansion bar plus the climatic action which also failed to push through the trigger number.

Watching PA today and noticed weakness coming in, price was darting up quickly then drifting down which is usually selling. Used the trigger number from June 5th and started selling.

AUD is really over bought looking at H4, a trade I plan on holding for a few days.

Also look at the daily opens of the last 3 days, the majority of the PA stays either above the open or below the open. I consider this a trend, so buy above the open and sell below the open.
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  • #33,151
  • Jun 10, 2020 10:26pm Jun 10, 2020 10:26pm
I've been talking a little bit about using Daily Opens, which I've really only shown trending days (because we are in a trending market right now).

Here is a choppy market, PA is both above and below the daily open. Choppy markets sell above the daily open and buy below the daily open.
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  • #33,152
  • Jun 11, 2020 3:35am Jun 11, 2020 3:35am
Quoting Anotan
{quote}I'm still processing the whole situation, so I don't really have much else to say about it. {image}
So here is my mistake.

The past few days we have been seeing climatic volume, and because of that I've been focused on the high volume bars rather than expansion volume.

For this trade if I had recognized the expansion volume (the yellow bar that has volume almost twice of the previous bar) on June 9th and paid attention to how price reacted to the expansion I should have known that no serious buyers were around and to hold the short trade. The reaction the expansion bar is the next bar closing down and making a lower low.
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  • #33,153
  • Jun 11, 2020 5:41pm Jun 11, 2020 5:41pm
Took off 1/4 of the position, let's see what AUD looks like at 6750.

Have a great weekend.
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  • #33,154
  • Jun 14, 2020 9:58pm Jun 14, 2020 9:58pm
No buying pressure into Friday's highest volume trigger.
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  • #33,155
  • Jun 15, 2020 12:55am Jun 15, 2020 12:55am
There is a huge learning curve to VSA and it isn't easy, but well worth the time and effort.

Closed out of AUDUSD, tightened my SL on EJ to 120.85 and a TP of 119.60.

I've had some nice returns in just the past two weeks alone, so I think I'm going to take the next 3 weeks off and plan a little vacation.

Take care.

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  • #33,156
  • Jun 15, 2020 8:05am Jun 15, 2020 8:05am
I am hoping to improve my trading by getting some feedback on how to approach a chart with vsa. I've made some scripts on tradingview to help me (the volume is modified code of hidden gaps, so thank you for the open source). I am still struggling to actually make good trades. I usually wait for a setup on a trigger number with strength or weakness in the background and ideally a trend alignment (the squares at the top of my chart). I am also day trading stocks which is harder to analyze with vsa imo. The chart is of eur/usd 1h as of 9am est
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  • #33,157
  • Jun 15, 2020 7:16pm Jun 15, 2020 7:16pm
Quoting sachko1
I am hoping to improve my trading by getting some feedback on how to approach a chart with vsa. I've made some scripts on tradingview to help me (the volume is modified code of hidden gaps, so thank you for the open source). I am still struggling to actually make good trades. I usually wait for a setup on a trigger number with strength or weakness in the background and ideally a trend alignment (the squares at the top of my chart). I am also day trading stocks which is harder to analyze with vsa imo. The chart is of eur/usd 1h as of 9am est {image}...

Welcome to the party. We're all here trying to improve. Post pics and ask questions.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #33,158
  • Edited 7:51am Jun 16, 2020 7:26am | Edited 7:51am
Hi everyone and Hi HiddenGap,

First, thanks a lot HiddenGap for all your comments and pictures.
You have no idea how I learn from them since 2010. I copied and paste all of them, very great to understand how markets works...
I am still in the learning process as I am not full time trader.

I trade Dow Jones at the moment and I have a specific question about Big Boys.
Very often, I could observe Accumulation Process and at the end of this process, they drive the price to a lower low before to create the big up move.
I mainly could oberve this kind of thing on the UT 5 Min because I trade small TF but my question is on bigger TF.

As you can see on this picture 1H, for me the BBs bought heavily on Thursday and then on Friday.
Then on monday opening, there was a gap down and then the price was driven even lower without volume but lower (not on the 1st chart but on the 2nd one)...
Is it also a price manipulation ? If yes, if my analyse is correct, that would mean that BBs positions are in negative territory but they do not care because they know they will increase the price anyway...

Please, can someone tell me if I am totaly wrong or not ?
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  • #33,159
  • Jun 17, 2020 1:06am Jun 17, 2020 1:06am
Quoting Onmyway
Hi everyone and Hi HiddenGap, First, thanks a lot HiddenGap for all your comments and pictures. You have no idea how I learn from them since 2010. I copied and paste all of them, very great to understand how markets works... I am still in the learning process as I am not full time trader. I trade Dow Jones at the moment and I have a specific question about Big Boys. Very often, I could observe Accumulation Process and at the end of this process, they drive the price to a lower low before to create the big up move. I mainly could oberve this kind...
Just a quick post.

On June 11th, we know there is climatic volume on a down bar with the next bar closing up, there is buying on this bar. What we don't know is if this buying is position building or just taking profit. So we have to wait.

June 12th again we see high volume, the volume is on an up bar with the next bar closing down, also the low of the high volume bar on June 12th is taken out. This sends out red flags, we have buying on the previous day and price is acting weak on June 12th.

From here I would wait and make the buyers from June 11th prove themselves, wait for the June 12th high to be taken out or wait for a successful test back into the trigger number of the climatic volume from June 11th before I would consider taking any long positions.
  • #33,160
  • Jun 18, 2020 6:36am Jun 18, 2020 6:36am
Hello, I am quite new to the Wyckoffian approach. I have been paying attention to this thread for a few months now and been inspired by some users' style of trading HiddenGap's style in particular. I would appreciate if someone clarifies a few concepts for me. I have noticed that there are many similarities between the order flow approach and the Wyckoff style of trading, Could someone explain to me what the differences are if there any at all?

looking forward for a reply much appreciated,
TraderRN
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