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Trading Institutional Order Flow

  • #8,541
  • Jun 11, 2020 6:59am Jun 11, 2020 6:59am
Hi everyone, my thoughts on Air France - KLM

1. On the Monthly Timeframe, we arrive at Fresh Monthly Demand
Quote
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AIRFRANCE1M.png Size: 58 KB

2. On the Weekly Timeframe, price fell down a little bit because it hit the 50% range of the Weekly Timeframe, but we have Loss of Downside Momentum, meaning the uptrend is ending.
Quote
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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3. On the Daily Timeframe, we also have Loss of Downside Momentum, and it nested within Weekly Demand.
Quote
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AIRFRANCE1D.png Size: 51 KB

And please correct me i'f I'm wrong
  • #8,542
  • Jun 11, 2020 8:20am Jun 11, 2020 8:20am
Price at weekly supply
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Daily has started a downtrend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I play on selling on that 4hr supply inside the daily level
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,543
  • Jun 11, 2020 8:31am Jun 11, 2020 8:31am
Quoting Obiech
Price at weekly supply {image} Daily has started a downtrend {image} I play on selling on that 4hr supply inside the daily level{image}
Hi Obiech, I got the same zone (4H) drawn out for the EURGBP but I was using it for the targets as the 4H (Curve chart is up for me).

My Charts are looking like the below. As you know my Timeframes are different (4H, H1 and 15M). My Plan is to wait and see what happens to that 4H zone as it's in an uptrend. If it will be respected I will be looking for the 15M TF for the confirmation trade and take profits quickly 1:1 1st target and 2:1 as a 2nd target. I think the price might have a reaction as there was quite a big imbalance on that 4H Supply.

EURGBP:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP 11.06.2020.png Size: 108 KB


Thanks
  • #8,544
  • Jun 11, 2020 10:04am Jun 11, 2020 10:04am
Quoting DavidKl
{quote} Hi Obiech, I got the same zone (4H) drawn out for the EURGBP but I was using it for the targets as the 4H (Curve chart is up for me). My Charts are looking like the below. As you know my Timeframes are different (4H, H1 and 15M). My Plan is to wait and see what happens to that 4H zone as it's in an uptrend. If it will be respected I will be looking for the 15M TF for the confirmation trade and take profits quickly 1:1 1st target and 2:1 as a 2nd target. I think the price might have a reaction as there was quite a big imbalance on that 4H...
Hi Obiech, I got a short update. It might be quite tricky to get in as there is a possibility of another 4H zone to be created if another candle will consolidate away from the zone. then you got a narrow range on the 4H TF. I am waiting for some signs of the momentum slowing down on the 15m chart. Green momentum line is from the 15M. If the 4H will break and new 4H demand is created I will be looking to go long in that 4H zone.

EUR/GBP Update:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP 2 11.06.2020.png Size: 111 KB
  • #8,545
  • Jun 12, 2020 2:55am Jun 12, 2020 2:55am
I will post few charts for today as I am doing my analysis.

EURCAD, EURGBP and EURJPY

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD - 12.06.2020.png Size: 137 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY 12.06.2020.png Size: 121 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP 12.06.2020.png Size: 134 KB
  • #8,546
  • Jun 12, 2020 3:09am Jun 12, 2020 3:09am
EURUSD - Analysis

4H and 1H
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD - 4H and 1H.png Size: 135 KB

4H and 15M
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD - 4H and 15M.png Size: 127 KB
  • #8,547
  • Jun 12, 2020 3:37am Jun 12, 2020 3:37am
Just an update on the EURUSD chart. It looks like the 1Hour demand zone is about to be created after the price reacted from the 4H demand.

EUR/USD update:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD - Update 12.06.2020.png Size: 126 KB
  • #8,548
  • Jun 13, 2020 6:49am Jun 13, 2020 6:49am
Quoting D.B
I will share how the trade goes if it does happen. Thoughts are welcomed. D.B
Good day all,
Just sharing how my AUD/USD trade went.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 110 KB

Before

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 115 KB

After

The trade hit my first 1:1 take profit and then I moved my stop loss to break even. Shortly afterwards it came back to my entry and hit my break even stop.
The demand zone didn't hold but I did manage small profits from this trade.

Aside from this I am still struggling to be an overall profitable trader but I know for a fact I will make it in the end.

Have a relaxing weekend everybody.

D.B
  • #8,549
  • Jun 13, 2020 8:14am Jun 13, 2020 8:14am
Quoting D.B
{quote} Good day all, Just sharing how my AUD/USD trade went. {image} Before {image} After The trade hit my first 1:1 take profit and then I moved my stop loss to break even. Shortly afterwards it came back to my entry and hit my break even stop. The demand zone didn't hold but I did manage small profits from this trade. Aside from this I am still struggling to be an overall profitable trader but I know for a fact I will make it in the end. Have a relaxing weekend everybody. D.B
Hi D.B

I'm in the EURUSD trade, I got no idea why USD got so strong all of a sudden. Everything tanked on Friday against USD. There was no news. I'm still in that trade but I will probably get Stopped Out, I will update on Monday with the result.
  • #8,550
  • Jun 13, 2020 12:17pm Jun 13, 2020 12:17pm
Quoting DavidKl
{quote} Hi D.B I'm in the EURUSD trade, I got no idea why USD got so strong all of a sudden. Everything tanked on Friday against USD. There was no news. I'm still in that trade but I will probably get Stopped Out, I will update on Monday with the result.
Hey David,

You're right about the USD suddenly gaining strength on Friday and now that you mention it everything did fall in comparison to the dollar.
I had also entered a USD/CAD short position and got stopped out as the USD just plowed through an opposing supply zone. So I didn't end the last week on a good note.

Let us see what opportunities this change up brings for us next week.

I'll be waiting to hear from you on your EUR/USD trade.

D.B
  • #8,551
  • Jun 14, 2020 8:19am Jun 14, 2020 8:19am
Good day everyone, hopefully you all are enjoying your weekend so far.

I have been working on approaching the charts systematically so I can analyze it the same way each time. I believe this will help eliminate any inconsistencies I may cause myself. So, I wrote out all the steps I will take for my top down approach to the markets and for each timeframe and I follow it each time.

Hopefully this can help someone else as well. It has already cleared up some of my issues with analysis and takes any guessing from the analysis.

Below are my analysis for some of my pairs. My timeframes are 4hr -> 1Hr -> 15mins.

Comments/questions are welcomed 100%.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdxo.png Size: 302 KB

AUD/USD

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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USD/JPY

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USD/CAD

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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USD/CHF

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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EUR/USD

D.B
  • #8,552
  • Jun 14, 2020 12:16pm Jun 14, 2020 12:16pm
Quoting D.B
Good day everyone, hopefully you all are enjoying your weekend so far. I have been working on approaching the charts systematically so I can analyze it the same way each time. I believe this will help eliminate any inconsistencies I may cause myself. So, I wrote out all the steps I will take for my top down approach to the markets and for each timeframe and I follow it each time. Hopefully this can help someone else as well. It has already cleared up some of my issues with analysis and takes any guessing from the analysis. Below are my analysis...
I like your analysis. I see different with EURUSD.

EURUSD analysis.

Still long term bullish. Asset managers/institutional COT reports are bullish and more numbers are added to buy. Even on the 4 Hr TF looks like a good opportunity to buy at the support level 1.1208. I will be looking next week, if there is opporutnity, to add longs on EURUSD. Looking at monthly, still has room to reach supply zone. Trade safe.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH4.png Size: 43 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily(2).png Size: 45 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: COT1.png Size: 64 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDMonthly.png Size: 45 KB
  • #8,553
  • Jun 14, 2020 3:43pm Jun 14, 2020 3:43pm
Hi D.B

Your analysis is good. I would only add couple of zones mainly on the 1 Hour charts.

AUDUSD

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD Analysis.png Size: 133 KB


USDCAD - The demand zone on the 1H chart was created because it removed the supply to the left.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD Analysis.png Size: 101 KB
  • #8,554
  • Jun 14, 2020 4:13pm Jun 14, 2020 4:13pm
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} I like your analysis. I see different with EURUSD. EURUSD analysis. Still long term bullish. Asset managers/institutional COT reports are bullish and more numbers are added to buy. Even on the 4 Hr TF looks like a good opportunity to buy at the support level 1.1208. I will be looking next week, if there is opporutnity, to add longs on EURUSD. Looking at monthly, still has room to reach supply zone. Trade safe. {image} {image} {image} {image}
Hey there Techanalyst,

Thanks for sharing your charts.

I see where you are coming from with your bullish bias on EUR/USD. From your charts, I can see that the pair just broke above a resistance level so buying at that new support around 1.1200 does make sense and the bullish COT reports is also helpful.

Contrary to yours, my short term bias is bearish and that may be due to the different timeframes we view. You watch much higher timeframes than I so your bias is also more long-term than mine.

What say you, will you be preferably waiting for EUR/USD will to drop back to 1.1208 after it's initial rally away? It is very possible.

D.B
  • #8,555
  • Jun 14, 2020 4:36pm Jun 14, 2020 4:36pm
Quoting DavidKl
Hi D.B Your analysis is good. I would only add couple of zones mainly on the 1 Hour charts. AUDUSD {image} USDCAD - The demand zone on the 1H chart was created because it removed the supply to the left. {image}
Hey David,

Thanks.

It's always good to see any differences between charts.

I've commented on some things, see attached.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD Analysis.png Size: 131 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: InkedAUDUSD Analysis_LI.jpg Size: 167 KB


What do you think?

D.B
  • #8,556
  • Jun 14, 2020 4:39pm Jun 14, 2020 4:39pm
Quoting D.B
{quote} Hey David, Thanks. It's always good to see any differences between charts. I've marked up some things, see attached. {image} {image} What do you think? D.B
Hi D.B

Glad I could help in some way. I will be posting my analysis on the EUR pairs in a second, please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong anywhere. Thanks.
  • #8,557
  • Jun 14, 2020 4:43pm Jun 14, 2020 4:43pm
Quoting D.B
{quote} Hey David, Thanks. It's always good to see any differences between charts. I've commented on some things, see attached. {image} {image} What do you think? D.B
Hi D.B

I just saw the 2nd annotated picture. I agree that this is not a great supply at the moment, yes you are right about that zone. To me it all comes down to scoring of the level. I marked this as supply because of the 2:1 move away and that it took out the buying from the left side. If I will be trading this supply it'd be only as a confirmation trade due to the 4H being in the downtrend.
  • #8,558
  • Jun 14, 2020 4:47pm Jun 14, 2020 4:47pm
Hi Everyone. My analysis on the EUR pairs as of now. tomorrow it might be all different. Feel free to point out the mistakes or any other observations.

D.B - The EURCAD screenshot is the trade that I talked about, I just noticed that I told you before that I'm in the EURUSD trade. (sorry for the mistake). I'm curious how is this going to workout.

EURCAD - Trade that I'm in.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD Analysis.png Size: 118 KB


EURGBP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP.png Size: 130 KB


EURJPY

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY Analysis.png Size: 134 KB


EURUSD

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD analysis.png Size: 160 KB
  • #8,559
  • Jun 14, 2020 4:53pm Jun 14, 2020 4:53pm
Quoting DavidKl
{quote} Hi D.B Glad I could help in some way. I will be posting my analysis on the EUR pairs in a second, please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong anywhere. Thanks.
Sure thing David

D.B
  • #8,560
  • Jun 14, 2020 4:58pm Jun 14, 2020 4:58pm
Quoting DavidKl
{quote} Hi D.B I just saw the 2nd annotated picture. I agree that this is not a great supply at the moment, yes you are right about that zone. To me it all comes down to scoring of the level. I marked this as supply because of the 2:1 move away and that it took out the buying from the left side. If I will be trading this supply it'd be only as a confirmation trade due to the 4H being in the downtrend.
I see, and you are right because the important thing is that zones are scored appropriately to know when zones should be used for "Set & Forgets", Confirmation trades or not used at all.

All good.

Peace,
D.B
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