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Rules based system that is profitable on GBPUSD and EURJPY

  • #21
  • Jun 12, 2020 6:27pm Jun 12, 2020 6:27pm
Quoting LDFX
What are the rules ? Ema cross on H1 ? Also 200 pips profit is good only relative to its initial stop. What is the point here ?
what will i gain sharing something thats taken 10 years to develop? nothing. if i could delete this thread i would, but i cant
  • #22
  • Jun 12, 2020 6:30pm Jun 12, 2020 6:30pm
Quoting mkvy
{quote} what will i gain sharing something thats taken 10 years to develop? nothing. if i could delete this thread i would, but i cant

I totally understand and respect that, neither would I share my strategy, but what do you gain by sharing some trades without any rules/specifications either ?
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #23
  • Jun 13, 2020 5:20am Jun 13, 2020 5:20am
it is good one. if you have the right rules, you make a successful trader. if you deviate from the rules, you lose discipline and lose.

everyone has their own system. each one adopts a system which suits them based on various learnings over the period as well own experience.

here we all share our experiences not because we gain anything from it, but we love sharing and help others who may be going through the same cycle of disappointments and dejection in this trade world. each of us learn from other and pass on our experience to others. it is a choice.

if there are negative comments, ignore them. there will always be people who look at it positively and even if it helps one person it is good.

so keep the good work. your chart look simple and seems to have a pattern for naked trading without EA. but i feel there is opportunity for EA to be made on your rules to make best of it.
  • #24
  • Jun 13, 2020 6:49am Jun 13, 2020 6:49am
Well its true that any simple strategy can work.. For me, my chosen EMA cross seems to work on GPBUSD and EURJPY.. There times when you may get a whole batch of losing trades. But by setting a stop loss to the top or bottom before the cross happened its like a safety mechanism.

Other currency crosses a different EMA cross may work better... i guess its all about back testing..
H4 / Daily/ weekly i found that you need huge stopliosses, and maybe be waiting months for a trade signal.
Lower timeframes like 15 minut/5 minute... just too much screen time is needed for this. too much stress and too many trades needed, and too small pips.

I find the middle of the road is best.. the one right in the middle, 1 hour...

That ridiculous Bull run before last week.. I had a buy trade.. I decided to take profit at 210 pips... I was happy with that. The EMA crossed down at 300 pips profit..
so i was not too bad to TP at 210.. The price actually went to over 400 pips profit... There was a clear trendline that it very nearly touched.. so that turnaround area would have been the optimum area to TP
  • #25
  • Jun 13, 2020 7:14am Jun 13, 2020 7:14am
EURJPY analysis..
I cannot see any reason why is dropped from that level. The peak has no matching down sloping major trendline... this can happen... But it has defined a new one.

I can see a possible target over 300 pips in profit that would be.. If it hits that upward sloping trandline. 2 choices
-Take profit at 320 pips and risk a trendline break potential of many 100's of pips more..

-wait for an EMA cross up...This may mean reduced profit OR Huge profit if the trendline breaks later on

The price could just go up from here and minimal or even break even could happen.. Thats ok also.. because i would probably be in a buy trade with a cross up
Backtesting GBPUSD the average potential profit of profitable EMA cross trades is around 250 pips if you manually TP before the opposite cross has happened

-
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  • #26
  • Jun 13, 2020 7:18am Jun 13, 2020 7:18am
Hello my friend. Is there another confirmation other than intersection
  • #27
  • Jun 13, 2020 1:45pm Jun 13, 2020 1:45pm
Quoting trader8282
Hello my friend. Is there another confirmation other than intersection
Yes, wait an hour to confirm the EMA cross. Thats all the confirmation you need
  • #28
  • Jun 13, 2020 1:46pm Jun 13, 2020 1:46pm
Seems to be some confusion over where exactly to set the stoploss. Just above the highest price before the EMA crossed. Not the previous candle
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  • #29
  • Jun 13, 2020 1:54pm Jun 13, 2020 1:54pm
nice set up. but why is it different on using EA MA crossover. Is it because of SL settings that we see higher loss than the gains.

Close of order, when do you do. is it handled by trailing stop?
  • #30
  • Jun 13, 2020 2:06pm Jun 13, 2020 2:06pm
Quoting cdsaa
it is good one. if you have the right rules, you make a successful trader. if you deviate from the rules, you lose discipline and lose. everyone has their own system. each one adopts a system which suits them based on various learnings over the period as well own experience. here we all share our experiences not because we gain anything from it, but we love sharing and help others who may be going through the same cycle of disappointments and dejection in this trade world. each of us learn from other and pass on our experience to others. it is a...
My comment surely was negative, which is a good thing though, otherwise the thread would be aseptic, but it was not directed to peoples who shares.

I mean what is the point to share trades that have no rules described?

Is it only about an Ema cross ? Then again, in this very volatile market since February anything could work..., an EMA cross has no hedge whatsoever.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #31
  • Edited 2:20pm Jun 13, 2020 2:07pm | Edited 2:20pm
Quoting cdsaa
nice set up. but why is it different on using EA MA crossover. Is it because of SL settings that we see higher loss than the gains. Close of order, when do you do. is it handled by trailing stop?
EA MA CRossover Make the trades as soon as the MA cross, they do not wait for another candle to confirm the cross.
  • #32
  • Jun 13, 2020 3:25pm Jun 13, 2020 3:25pm
Quoting kofix11
Thanks mkvy. Is there a reason for these figures? And why don't you take an EA? That would be pretty easy with an EA. Anyway. This seems to be a relaxed trading style. Wish you lots of green pips.
No need to make an EA. Why waste the power of leaving a computer on all week or paying for a virtual one.. You only need to check with a phone or computer 3 or 4 times a day. During lockdown i have been a screen worshipper though...
  • #33
  • Jun 13, 2020 3:32pm Jun 13, 2020 3:32pm
Quoting LDFX
{quote} My comment surely was negative, which is a good thing though, otherwise the thread would be aseptic, but it was not directed to peoples who shares. I mean what is the point to share trades that have no rules described? Is it only about an Ema cross ? Then again, in this very volatile market since February anything could work..., an EMA cross has no hedge whatsoever.
I know what you mean. No one believes that the dumbest simplest most written about ideas could work...

We all went through the same curve.

Open a demo, look at a chart, make a trade... come back a few days later- and have make over a 1000$ on gold.

Open the indicators folder for the first time and added a moving average

some weeks later advanced to higher levels by using 2 or 3 moving averages which never worked because we had no discipline

few years later tried every indicator on the planet, paid for systems and are back to square 1
  • #34
  • Edited 4:13pm Jun 13, 2020 3:49pm | Edited 4:13pm
Quoting mkvy
{quote} I know what you mean. No one believes that the dumbest simplest most written about ideas could work... We all went through the same curve. Open a demo, look at a chart, make a trade... come back a few days later- and have make over a 1000$ on gold. Open the indicators folder for the first time and added a moving average some weeks later advanced to higher levels by using 2 or 3 moving averages which never worked because we had no discipline few years later tried every indicator on the planet, paid for systems and are back to square 1

I am totally for simple strategies, but a ema cross doesn’t involve either discretion nor skill.

The market is an ultra competitive business, if you think a ema cross has an edge..., you gonna have to come up with something more than this in order to make money. You said, I quote “Open a demo, look at a chart, make a trade... come back a few days later”, actually you should come back a few years later...

Simple is great, but to qualify for simple it has to have an edge, which a ema crossing can’t. You are appropriating yourself a non existent skill that you should instead compare with randomness. Since 3/4 months the market has been very volatile, any ema cross, oscillating indicators, etc..., would have worked which will kill your account once a real trend or a real flat trend occurs, therefore your “signal” is purely random.

Also any EA could replicate a ema cross while in this zero sum game the only profiting are those with skill, experience that are against the inexperienced mass. Why does even hedge funds managing billions, with “alpha” managers exist if a simple ema EA would do the trick ? I know I seem arrogant and offensive but it is actually the other way around. Anyone thinking that in this ultra competitive market one could make money long term simply by following a ema cross without any discretion, which a monkey could do, is the arrogant one.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #35
  • Edited 4:33pm Jun 13, 2020 4:19pm | Edited 4:33pm
Quoting LDFX
{quote} I am totally for simple strategies, but a ema cross doesn’t involve either discretion nor skill. The market is an ultra competitive business, if you think a ema cross has an edge..., you gonna have to come up with something more than this in order to make money. You said, I quote “Open a demo, look at a chart, make a trade... come back a few days later”, actually you should come back a few years later... Simple is great, but to qualify for simple it has to have an edge, which a ema crossing can’t. You are appropriating yourself a non existent...
Good luck in your search. I love the monkey comment.. i may name thread to "Monkey Strategy with rules"
  • #36
  • Jun 13, 2020 4:39pm Jun 13, 2020 4:39pm
Quoting mkvy
{quote} Good luck in your search. I love the monkey comment.. i may name thread to "Monkey Strategy with rules"

I am not in search, clearly you are.

I feel sorry that I broke your dream, the new title is a good idea though.

So good luck to you buddy !
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #37
  • Jun 13, 2020 5:08pm Jun 13, 2020 5:08pm
Quoting LDFX
{quote} I am totally for simple strategies, but a ema cross doesn’t involve either discretion nor skill. The market is an ultra competitive business, if you think a ema cross has an edge..., you gonna have to come up with something more than this in order to make money. You said, I quote “Open a demo, look at a chart, make a trade... come back a few days later”, actually you should come back a few years later... Simple is great, but to qualify for simple it has to have an edge, which a ema crossing can’t. You are appropriating yourself a non existent...
There is absolutely nothing to fault in this response.
The first issue I have with the thread is the topic. Any good "strategy" should be profitable on all pairs, under all market conditions, trending or consolidating.
If emas are the secret to success in forex then 99% will be profitable.
You don't read the markets with emas
No Bias
  • #38
  • Jun 13, 2020 5:13pm Jun 13, 2020 5:13pm
Quoting imoveit
{quote} There is absolutely nothing to fault in this response. The first issue I have with the thread is the topic. Any good "strategy" should be profitable on all pairs, under all market conditions, trending or consolidating. If emas are the secret to success in forex then 99% will be profitable. You don't read the markets with emas
I am not here to persuade anyone. . I will just show my trades from now on... Every entry.. Right when i take them. Right now i am selling GPBUSD and EURJPY. My trades are held over the weekend.
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  • #39
  • Jun 14, 2020 8:04am Jun 14, 2020 8:04am
Quoting mkvy
To remove emotion sometimes when in a trade you can remove candles EURJPY. Funny, but always seems to work. Because you cannot get emotional as you have no real idea how much profit you could have had... good example was today... but now if you followed the rules you are now in even more profit than this morning.. 200 pips is a good target to take profit, but you run the risk of cutting your profit if the price falls 1000 pips. Inversely, if the price crosses up next week... you may only make 50 pips... The choice is yours, but no less than 200...
Have you tried to use the 13 EMA for trailing stop purposes on a 15 minutes chart?

If say, in an uptrend, the price makes a swing and falls below the 13 EMA and it quickly moves up from there and takes out the previous High you move your stop loss to just below the recent Low. If the price stays for long or makes wide bars with selling pressure below the 13 EMA you manually exit. In that way I think it can save a lot of pips. The disadvantage you might prematurely exit a good trend of which you can still rejoin at a spread price with a new stop loss (risk).
  • #40
  • Jun 14, 2020 1:29pm Jun 14, 2020 1:29pm
Quoting Pumi
{quote} Have you tried to use the 13 EMA for trailing stop purposes on a 15 minutes chart? If say, in an uptrend, the price makes a swing and falls below the 13 EMA and it quickly moves up from there and takes out the previous High you move your stop loss to just below the recent Low. If the price stays for long or makes wide bars with selling pressure below the 13 EMA you manually exit. In that way I think it can save a lot of pips. The disadvantage you might prematurely exit a good trend of which you can still rejoin at a spread price with a new...
No, i would not go near a 15 minute chart
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