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The Fibonacci channel projections (FCP)

  • #961
  • Jun 11, 2020 7:02am Jun 11, 2020 7:02am
Some call it coincidence, I call it Fibo ;-)

EURUSD on M30

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  • #962
  • Jun 11, 2020 7:15am Jun 11, 2020 7:15am
Quoting prozium
EA. Lost trade. Catched divergence, also channel breaks. Entered on next swing, but saw some strange upside moving (higher lows) & some strength of bulls. Exited earlier, before SL. Also a mistake was entering in such trade when price ranging near strong support on D1. {image}
after the fact h1 analysis.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #963
  • Edited 7:47am Jun 11, 2020 7:36am | Edited 7:47am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} after the fact h1 analysis. {image}
Hmm. My MACD show another picture. What indicator you use?

Aha. MACD_OsMA. As I understand it something like MACD + OsMA?
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  • #964
  • Jun 11, 2020 7:55am Jun 11, 2020 7:55am
Quoting prozium
{quote} Hmm. My MACD show another picture. What indicator you use? Aha. MACD_OsMA. As I understand it something like MACD + OsMA? {image} {image}
yes. one indicator two uses for divergence.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #965
  • Jun 11, 2020 8:08am Jun 11, 2020 8:08am
observe to see any bounce
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #966
  • Jun 11, 2020 11:05am Jun 11, 2020 11:05am
Quoting Tragruel
Another example and confluence. CADCHF H4 When 0.786/0.75 Zone is a SR flip. it really add confidence. Also the break off the channel is right on the 20 EMA. Notice how the zone is also exactly at daily pivot.... this is my favorite setup... SR Flip + Daily pivot. and of course divergence on last swing. {image}
Result :
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  • #967
  • Jun 12, 2020 4:11am Jun 12, 2020 4:11am
hi experts,

I am currently trying FCP on my demo account before dabbling it on a real account. May I know what did i miss out in this chart? EURJPY was able to hit 38.2 but it had a strong drawback till entry level. How do I know whether or not my trade will be invalidated before it reaches 0.0?? Thanks
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  • #968
  • Jun 12, 2020 4:37am Jun 12, 2020 4:37am
Quoting matthewcyx
How do I know
Hi! Sorry if I may sound "ironic". But if anyone knew what will happen, we would not be in this forum...

The chart looks perfect to me. Beautifully hit the 38.2. And then? We never know.
A good idea imho in this case would be to work with trailing stops. If it continues: perfect. If not: at least saved part of the win
  • #969
  • Edited 8:06am Jun 12, 2020 4:53am | Edited 8:06am
Quoting matthewcyx
hi experts, I am currently trying FCP on my demo account before dabbling it on a real account. May I know what did i miss out in this chart? EURJPY was able to hit 38.2 but it had a strong drawback till entry level. How do I know whether or not my trade will be invalidated before it reaches 0.0?? Thanks {image}
I see some kind of bullish engulfing on H1. You need to investigate deeper. On M30 & M15 there's bullish regular divergence, also multiple bullish engulfing PA appeared. Also you can check a volume - bears not pushing price anymore, bulls trying to catch the move.

Also, try to avoid creating big wide channels. Wide channel increasing you risk.
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  • #970
  • Jun 12, 2020 5:22am Jun 12, 2020 5:22am
Quoting Inthebox
observe to see any bounce {image}
gj result
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #971
  • Edited 7:29am Jun 12, 2020 5:43am | Edited 7:29am
Quoting matthewcyx
hi experts, I am currently trying FCP on my demo account before dabbling it on a real account. May I know what did i miss out in this chart? EURJPY was able to hit 38.2 but it had a strong drawback till entry level. How do I know whether or not my trade will be invalidated before it reaches 0.0?? Thanks {image}
we never know when's the reversal.
look left, there was a pause at fib 38.2. that was a support.
that was a good 70-80 pips run. i normally look for 30 to 60 pips.

many ways for target.
exit everything at fib 38.2.
or one exit at 38.2, the other at 0.
or i can double the lot size with half the distance.
or
keep channel width say 30 to 60 pips. that will reduce the fib extention which make it easier to hit fib 0.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #972
  • Jun 12, 2020 7:24am Jun 12, 2020 7:24am
EU. Some interesting situation. We have 2 opposite signals (for bullish divergence & bearish trend continuation), but second signal appeared later.
Channel fully broken. Missed first wave, but catched some pips on second. Also NY session opened, so waiting for PA confirmation that bears are still in game.
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  • #973
  • Edited 8:05am Jun 12, 2020 7:49am | Edited 8:05am
Quoting prozium
EU. Some interesting situation. We have 2 opposite signals (for bullish divergence & bearish trend continuation), but second signal appeared later. Channel fully broken. Missed first wave, but catched some pips on second. Also NY session opened, so waiting for PA confirmation that bears are still in game. {image}
this is a good example of trading the retracement according to the time frame target that one is trading.
if the m5 gives 10 - 15 pips, so be it.

this is in accordance to the methodology of post 942.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #974
  • Jun 12, 2020 8:00am Jun 12, 2020 8:00am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} this is a good example of trading the retracement according to the time frame target that one is trading. if the m5 gives 10 - 15 pips, so be it. {image}
Thank you I keep learning & trying to find more confirmations when entering the trade. OsMA really good indicator, but need some time to adapt to it.
  • #975
  • Jun 12, 2020 8:27am Jun 12, 2020 8:27am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} gj result {image}
Hello, something am not understanding is how you place your fibo tool,kind lydirect me where to read about that
  • #976
  • Jun 12, 2020 8:48am Jun 12, 2020 8:48am
Quoting makenas
{quote} Hello, something am not understanding is how you place your fibo tool,kind lydirect me where to read about that
all nicely packed in post 1 with many linked examples.
but first you must get the channel points 1,2,3 correctly.
don't understand, ask again.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #977
  • Jun 12, 2020 9:01am Jun 12, 2020 9:01am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} all nicely packed in post 1 with many linked examples. but first you must get the channel points 1,2,3 correctly. don't understand, ask again.
will do,thanks and blessed weekend
  • #978
  • Jun 12, 2020 10:57am Jun 12, 2020 10:57am
Quoting matthewcyx
hi experts, I am currently trying FCP on my demo account before dabbling it on a real account. May I know what did i miss out in this chart? EURJPY was able to hit 38.2 but it had a strong drawback till entry level. How do I know whether or not my trade will be invalidated before it reaches 0.0?? Thanks {image}
Here are the trendlines for H1 according to Sperando method (as stated in post #1 'In the FCP, for TL we will use the Sperandeo method (Trader Vic).')
the two red one are strict Spredando TL the, yellow one an accepted one by Seysin method.

if you would trade at the point you enter you prolly would need to go to a lower time frame to find a valid channel.
Others are using less strict TL but it its not the OP method, so its difficult to expect correct Fibonacci projection if the channel is wrong from the start.
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  • #979
  • Jun 12, 2020 11:02am Jun 12, 2020 11:02am
Quoting Tragruel
{quote} Here are the trendlines for H1 according to Sperando method (as stated in post #1 'In the FCP, for TL we will use the Sperandeo method (Trader Vic).') the two red one are strict Spredando TL the, yellow one an accepted one by Seysin method. if you would trade at the point you enter you prolly would need to go to a lower time frame to find a valid channel. Others are using less strict TL but it its not the OP method, so its difficult to expect correct Fibonacci projection if the channel is wrong from the start. {image}
Using the Valid trendline, this would be the result for EURJPY H1. you see, this was actually a very good FCP.
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  • #980
  • Jun 12, 2020 11:19am Jun 12, 2020 11:19am
same pattern over and over again.
BRC. Break Retrace Continue.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
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