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The Swamp

  • #67,561
  • Jun 11, 2020 8:01pm Jun 11, 2020 8:01pm
Quoting thelws
{quote} I do agree with you. It's just that the guys holding all the big money thinks they can outsmart the market. Or at least get out before the gravy train stops. Well for someone like me, I'll just try to be as nimble as possible and not hold any views. I don't need to anyway. I'm no where big enough to matter.
What have you heard about the companies that take the survey for nonfarm importing labor to skew the numbers?
  • #67,562
  • Jun 11, 2020 8:03pm Jun 11, 2020 8:03pm
Quoting thelws
{quote} I do agree with you. It's just that the guys holding all the big money thinks they can outsmart the market. Or at least get out before the gravy train stops. Well for someone like me, I'll just try to be as nimble as possible and not hold any views. I don't need to anyway. I'm no where big enough to matter.
The job loss % is larger than any time since The Great Depression. Not equal, larger than any time including the 1930s and 1920s. In other words, your grand kids will be reading about 2020 as the larger one. Don't walk close to tall buildings.

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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #67,563
  • Jun 11, 2020 8:12pm Jun 11, 2020 8:12pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The job loss % is larger than any time since The Great Depression. Not equal, larger than any time including the 1930s and 1920s. In other words, your grand kids will be reading about 2020 as the larger one. Don't walk close to tall buildings. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IM8Q1e95VbY
I found me a new indicator by accident im going to call it the "H-1BVisa-Index" and correlate it with nonfarm.
  • #67,564
  • Jun 11, 2020 8:14pm Jun 11, 2020 8:14pm
Quoting q_import
{quote} What have you heard about the companies that take the survey for nonfarm importing labor to skew the numbers?
nothing really. It was a non event. Most people were long risk to begin with. That news just helped them. They know that the numbers are useless. But it didn't matter.

I should clarify that at our level, we don't get special inside information. What we get are usually from bloomberg or reuters and personal contacts. So the chief traders have their own circle of friends which they keep in touch with to exchange rumours and market talk.

Probably if you're as big as buffet or blackrock, you may have your own team of investigators. For us, we don't get much.
  • #67,565
  • Jun 11, 2020 8:17pm Jun 11, 2020 8:17pm
Quoting thelws
{quote} nothing really. It was a non event. Most people were long risk to begin with. That news just helped them. They know that the numbers are useless. But it didn't matter.
I saw the flip back in March on the COT.
I had the bank position plot which lined up with the massive drop and this month with the rise.
I am just looking for new way to make my work life easier..
  • #67,566
  • Jun 11, 2020 8:20pm Jun 11, 2020 8:20pm
Quoting q_import
{quote} I saw the flip back in March on the COT. I had the bank position plot which lined up with the massive drop and this month with the rise. I am just looking for new way to make my work life easier..
Sorry but i only know what works for me. Different strokes for different folks. But I wish you good luck in your findings.
  • #67,567
  • Jun 11, 2020 8:25pm Jun 11, 2020 8:25pm
Quoting thelws
{quote} Sorry but i only know what works for me. Different strokes for different folks. But I wish you good luck in your findings.
Its a no go with the visa.. there is no real time tracking of data that is public..
  • #67,568
  • Jun 11, 2020 8:28pm Jun 11, 2020 8:28pm
Quoting thelws
{quote} Sorry but i only know what works for me. Different strokes for different folks. But I wish you good luck in your findings.
I agree. thank you
  • #67,569
  • Jun 11, 2020 8:37pm Jun 11, 2020 8:37pm
I posted this a few days ago. People are pricing the stock market near 100% of January #s. When GDP is estimated to drop 48%. That's a -8% for U.S. GDP. The global bank estimates world GDP -%5. Some countries in Europe -15%
https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #67,570
  • Jun 11, 2020 8:44pm Jun 11, 2020 8:44pm
Quoting q_import
{quote} I found me a new indicator by accident im going to call it the "H-1BVisa-Index" and correlate it with nonfarm.
46 million are late. https://wallethub.com/blog/late-paym...%20S%20Kiernan
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #67,571
  • Edited 11:17pm Jun 11, 2020 8:56pm | Edited 11:17pm
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} Strong support here. SL .6927 set for all AU trades. If they get hit BE. No risk
I screwed myself here with the SL. Had AU shorts from .6957, added at .6907. SL got hit, then reversed at .69273. So canceled out my trades by .03 pip. Shit happens. Got back in with short this morning when I woke up (in Australia) at .6841. and .6824 Not the best of entries, but when the Aussie turns it can move fast and hard, and I really don't want to miss the ride. More shorts pending at .6855 if it bounces.
  • #67,572
  • Edited 10:27pm Jun 11, 2020 9:17pm | Edited 10:27pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 46 million are late. https://wallethub.com/blog/late-paym...%20S%20Kiernan
I have been using zillow with a a python script for New Contruction and For Sale
I simply pass in the state then get the number.
with the courts being closed I expect the number to rise after july

Quarterly Reports are also helpful
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc
https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibr...HDC_2020Q1.pdf
  • #67,573
  • Jun 11, 2020 9:20pm Jun 11, 2020 9:20pm
I just read an article, which the site wouldn't allow me to copy, which says Chinese authorities are curbing coal arrivals through "import quotas and quality restrictions". Resulting in import clearance delays up to 90 days from previous 30 day delays. Another quote "analysts expect imports to fall by as much as a quarter in second half of this year from corresponding 2019 period." Chinese port authorities refused to comment, and one official said they are not allowed to speak to the media.

There has been escalating friction between Australia and China recently. China has applied tariffs and restrictions on some imports from Australia. This may be related. Coal is Australia's second biggest export earner, behind iron ore, most of which also goes to China.
  • #67,574
  • Jun 11, 2020 9:57pm Jun 11, 2020 9:57pm
Good morning!

Quoting gellowmellow
My next TP 1289 but gonna sleep already, zzz.
This TP out also + another old trade... + 20 all.
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All shorts cleared, except one - the lowest I have.
Quoting gellowmellow
will/need reload higher, one first at 77

Waiting for DX to break this, same level where it keeps reversing previous days.

H4
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I favor a rise for reload of shorts and even if we go 1530 after my reload, I don't worry anymore about cutting losses with the pips I made this week. <3
Peace is more valuable than success.
LifeDrifts v1 [automated] All Time Return: -0.1%
  • #67,575
  • Jun 11, 2020 10:34pm Jun 11, 2020 10:34pm
Quoting Blackopal
I just read an article, which the site wouldn't allow me to copy, which says Chinese authorities are curbing coal arrivals through "import quotas and quality restrictions". Resulting in import clearance delays up to 90 days from previous 30 day delays. Another quote "analysts expect imports to fall by as much as a quarter in second half of this year from corresponding 2019 period." Chinese port authorities refused to comment, and one official said they are not allowed to speak to the media. There has been escalating friction between Australia and...
Golden chance was that FOMC spike, monthly chart aligned on that also. Grabbed one small based on technicals only, letting it run.

If DX already hit the lowest, this pair has so much pips. Your fundie insights are helpful.
Peace is more valuable than success.
LifeDrifts v1 [automated] All Time Return: -0.1%
  • #67,576
  • Jun 11, 2020 10:37pm Jun 11, 2020 10:37pm
Quoting q_import
{quote} I have been using zillow with a a python script for New Contruction and For Sale I simply pass in the state then get the number. with the courts being closed I expect the number to rise after july Quarterly Reports are also helpful https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibr...HDC_2020Q1.pdf
banks upend credit scores for borrowers. I lost home sales when previously qualified people became unqualified. Due to a rise in score threshold. Jumbo loans have done well in my area. The starter and lower middle class property have declined. The more affluent are trying to get those cheap % loans.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #67,577
  • Jun 11, 2020 10:40pm Jun 11, 2020 10:40pm
bed time..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #67,578
  • Jun 12, 2020 12:12am Jun 12, 2020 12:12am
Quoting gellowmellow
{quote} Golden chance was that FOMC spike, monthly chart aligned on that also. Grabbed one small based on technicals only, letting it run. If DX already hit the lowest, this pair has so much pips. Your fundie insights are helpful.
Yes, important level for DX being attacked from below again now with a bit of momentum this time. "based on technicals only"...that's the name of the game. Fundamentals have been disregarded in this "risk off" rally. Eventually they will have to be acknowledged. Yesterday's PA suggests that time may be near. My current AU trades are reliant on the 68.55 area holding bulls. AU 4 Hr and daily uptrend since mid March is still intact. On my chart around 67.65 area. "Golden chance was that FOMC spike"...I hate FOMC spikes. They tend to spike both directions, taking out stop losses as they go. I closed all trades about 4 hours before it and slept thru it.

Short EU 1.1295
  • #67,579
  • Jun 12, 2020 12:31am Jun 12, 2020 12:31am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} been on the road, had a family member loss just got back in my home town. ..wow ES . nasdaq.
Sorry to hear, hope everything is good with you
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #67,580
  • Jun 12, 2020 12:33am Jun 12, 2020 12:33am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} yes I have eyeball on levels around there 106 50 ish but yen appreciation is too strong to ignore, heavily load short geppy so left uy alone!!
I took back 20
but i should have let it run

thing is with equity going down and dollar drop..usdjpy is suffering

but im sure it will go Skyhigh at some point as CoT shows jpy is overloaded
COT: The precious data ignored
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