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Losing Streak: Is it because of strategy or bad luck?

  • #61
  • Apr 29, 2014 7:09am Apr 29, 2014 7:09am
Quoting 4StarGen
{quote} so you are gambling basically?
Not really! But there is always a noise in each position traders take, nothing is 100% for sure.
How many times we get news announcements that the economy is growing through employmet figures and yet you see indices losing points
Trading and gambling are both fundamentally stochastic, that is unpredictable, and because of this they are often viewed negatively!
  • #62
  • May 31, 2020 11:16pm May 31, 2020 11:16pm
Quoting PipPirates
Hi, This is my 1st thread, please be kind. In spite of following same strategy (Which provided profit earlier), now I get loosing streak for 2 months. I was wondering, is it because of my strategy or my bad luck? My strategy has a wining rate of 50%, i get profit because, my R/R is large. All expert professional trader are here, so i am looking an answer from you. All strategy has some wining rate, but when to understand, that the following strategy became obsolete? I know about the probability, as far as the sample size increase, probability decrease,...
Every strategy doesnt work for every state the markets can be in. For example a trend trading strategy can has massive success in a bull market then sustain major losses when the market is going sideways/ consolidating. The best way to handle this dilemma is to have multiple setups or variations of your strategy that can work when the market is trending up/ down or sideways and be disciplined enough to recognize what condition the market is in and use the appropriate setup.

Knowing when to sit out of the market is just as important as knowing when to execute a trade. I'd stop trading until you can make the proper adjustments to your strategy.
Gentlemen always play by the rules, if they can't, they change them.
  • #63
  • Jun 1, 2020 12:12am Jun 1, 2020 12:12am
Quoting Bsmile44
{quote} Every strategy doesnt work for every state the markets can be in. For example a trend trading strategy can has massive success in a bull market then sustain major losses when the market is going sideways/ consolidating. The best way to handle this dilemma is to have multiple setups or variations of your strategy that can work when the market is trending up/ down or sideways and be disciplined enough to recognize what condition the market is in and use the appropriate setup. Knowing when to sit out of the market is just as important as knowing...
The best solution is walk forward optimisation test which cover bear markets too. But you will probably need to for pay for quotes.
  • #64
  • Jun 1, 2020 1:57pm Jun 1, 2020 1:57pm
Quoting bottomhigh
{quote} The best solution is walk forward optimisation test which cover bear markets too. But you will probably need to for pay for quotes.
There is no best solution, my friend, he's had 2 months of losing by walking forward. He needs to stop, reset his mindset, evaluate his strategy, and determine if it can work under the market's current conditions.
Gentlemen always play by the rules, if they can't, they change them.
  • #65
  • Last Post: Jun 10, 2020 1:06am Jun 10, 2020 1:06am
Winning and loosing are part of trading.Its not at all about bad luck. Market is volatile so you have to change your strategy according to that and sometimes try to observe the proffesional trader, you will get to learn alot.
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