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  • #21
  • Jun 9, 2020 4:54am Jun 9, 2020 4:54am
You have %96 chance that when candle closes above %20. It will go in to drawdown first before reaching %75 of the day
Analyzing the size of the drawdown can give us the answer whether its worth to trade.
If it fallen %20 down , You can buy with max stopLoss %55 of the day average. TakeProfit can be somewhere %0 or opposite direction. It must be counted.

At the end you will be in profit %96 of the time before it reaches to the %75 within same day. It can be 1 pip profit or 10 pip profit. Its unknown.
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Take it easy.
  • #22
  • Jun 9, 2020 5:53am Jun 9, 2020 5:53am
Hi interesting thanks,

It seems that when you go down in the timeframe you upper the ratio of reversal.

Could it be interesting to use your probabilityday with the also super interesting thread on Jakson zone trading by Swingman ? (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=963087)
  • #23
  • Jun 9, 2020 8:19am Jun 9, 2020 8:19am
And how do you manage to get 26 days ?

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  • #24
  • Jun 9, 2020 8:46am Jun 9, 2020 8:46am
Quants：

hi,

could you help me code four lines of the pictue to show open price for the day, H4,H1,M15 and change automatically?

thanks a lot.

aren
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  • #25
  • Jun 9, 2020 8:53am Jun 9, 2020 8:53am
ok my question is,

Is it possible to code a statistical indicator that tells me for any given period and timeframe (of my choice), how many times in percentage terms has price closed outside or inside the Bollinger band. According to bollinger price will stay inside the bands(20,2) approx 86-88% of the time if I am not mistaken.

Would be a helpful tool to determine if price is due a breakout/reversal or consolidation.

Thanks
  • #26
  • Jun 9, 2020 10:59am Jun 9, 2020 10:59am
Quoting rosalieone
And how do you manage to get 26 days ? {image}
Check days inside inputs are for daily average. So 5 means we find 5 days average.. I suggest to not change it.

Tested days is different the more candles and data we have more days checked on the chart

Quoting shrips
ok my question is, Is it possible to code a statistical indicator that tells me for any given period and timeframe (of my choice), how many times in percentage terms has price closed outside or inside the Bollinger band. According to bollinger price will stay inside the bands(20,2) approx 86-88% of the time if I am not mistaken. Would be a helpful tool to determine if price is due a breakout/reversal or consolidation. Thanks
Yes possible

Quoting aren
Quants： hi, could you help me code four lines of the pictue to show open price for the day, H4,H1,M15 and change automatically? thanks a lot. aren {image}
No, this thread have different purpose please read first post
Take it easy.
  • #27
  • Jun 9, 2020 5:03pm Jun 9, 2020 5:03pm
Added new Poll for the next weeks Idea, Meanwhile this week i will update with the MAX Possible DD for the daily average probability idea.
Take it easy.
  • #28
  • Jun 9, 2020 8:29pm Jun 9, 2020 8:29pm
Hi there im looking for someone to translate this EA from russian to english if anyone can please help would
Much appreciate it,
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 manualtrade 5-4_1.mq4   72 KB | 244 downloads
File Type: ex4 manualtrade 5-4_1.ex4   62 KB | 235 downloads
  • #29
  • Jun 10, 2020 3:04am Jun 10, 2020 3:04am
Quoting Quants
You have %96 chance that when candle closes above %20. It will go in to drawdown first before reaching %75 of the day Analyzing the size of the drawdown can give us the answer whether its worth to trade. If it fallen %20 down , You can buy with max stopLoss %55 of the day average. TakeProfit can be somewhere %0 or opposite direction. It must be counted. At the end you will be in profit %96 of the time before it reaches to the %75 within same day. It can be 1 pip profit or 10 pip profit. Its unknown. {image}
Could you please tell me how you get that information from the upper left window ? And how to manage the settings from the indi ?
Thanks
  • #30
  • Jun 10, 2020 3:31am Jun 10, 2020 3:31am
Quoting roddy321
Hi there im looking for someone to translate this EA from russian to english if anyone can please help would Much appreciate it, {file} {file}
This is not the purpose of this thread
Take it easy.
  • #31
  • Jun 10, 2020 3:32am Jun 10, 2020 3:32am
Quoting rosalieone
{quote} Could you please tell me how you get that information from the upper left window ? And how to manage the settings from the indi ? Thanks

It does find that automatically based on the amount of bars you have. This screenshot can give enough explanation about example day.

AS you seen in the example in history we have found if candle closes for the first time above %30. In same day you have %90+ Probability that it will go opposite first.
Then you have another %90 probability that Within same day it will hit %40....

So it means you just found information by looking to history how it behaved for past 26 days.

And on 27TH day you knew the odds when it did happen automatically. So this trade was beyond the guessing and based on the facts.

So there you go. It did happen for both sides. Interesting day yesterday. I hope it was clear example.

I will change the thread name and location today, It started to be annoying that some people posting about coding requests without reading the purpose and first thread
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Take it easy.
  • #32
  • Edited 5:20am Jun 10, 2020 5:07am | Edited 5:20am
Quoting Quants
{quote} It does find that automatically based on the amount of bars you have. This screenshot can give enough explanation about example day. AS you seen in the example in history we have found if candle closes for the first time above %30. In same day you have %90+ Probability that it will go opposite first. Then you have another %90 probability that Within same day it will hit %40.... So it means you just found information by looking to history how it behaved for past 26 days. And on 27TH day you knew the odds when it did happen automatically....
Thanks, but how and where do you determine the 30% and the 40% ?
Is it the treshold min max ?
  • #33
  • Jun 10, 2020 5:37am Jun 10, 2020 5:37am
Quoting rosalieone
{quote} Thanks, but how and where do you determine the 30% and the 40% ? Is it the treshold min max ?
Correct. It means there must candle closed between %30min treshold and max treshold %40 you can input that in settings as 0.30 and 0.40.. once its closed it will check if within same day if candle closed above max or not. If it closed below min after it was between then it counted as opposite.

If candle spiked from %29 to %40 that is not counted as it never closed in between we assigned..

So conclusion is, we check candles that is given min and max range.
After candle closed above min treshold and below max treshold we check if it went in opposite. If yes it counted. We allso check if same day it reached to the max treshold target. If reached it counted.

So. If you see %90 opp and %90 contuniation. It means once candle closed in between ie above 0.30 and below 0.40.. you have high probability that before reaching max treshold first it will go against you... but before the day closes it have high probability to reach max treshold.

Scenario wouls occur like this. Candle closed at 0.35.. then price went back to 0.20.. End of the day 0.40 reached.


% of avg move counted as this :
If 5 days average 300 pips
If current day moved up 30 pips
It is 10% movement.. which is 0.10

I hope i been able to explain
Take it easy.
  • #34
  • Jun 10, 2020 5:51am Jun 10, 2020 5:51am
Hello Quants, I am delighted that I have found someone who can at least answer my question.
This is my Question : 2 colour moving average /nonlag V7. .....Can it be made to buy on red and then sell on blue,obviously closing ,then opening on colour change ???....Thanks Quants.
  • #35
  • Jun 10, 2020 5:54am Jun 10, 2020 5:54am
Quoting lotv
Hello Quants, I am delighted that I have found someone who can at least answer my question. This is my Question : 2 colour moving average /nonlag V7. .....Can it be made to buy on red and then sell on blue,obviously closing ,then opening on colour change ???....Thanks Quants.
Ok enough Im changing the thread. People still not understood the purpose.
Take it easy.
  • #36
  • Last Post: Jun 10, 2020 7:38am Jun 10, 2020 7:38am
THREAD IS CLOSED MOVE ON FROM THIS LINK:
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=12995180#post12995180
Take it easy.
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