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The Swamp

  • #66,841
  • Jun 8, 2020 12:15pm Jun 8, 2020 12:15pm
Quoting Boulder
Still held all my rest todays shorts and wait for TP 1270...I can wait... meantime..just enjoy music... https://youtu.be/gONiqf3hYko
1285-1288 hard s.. we may not get it today.

if we can get 1280 i will close my short and will look for new trade tomorrow, my broker charge me little swap even on short since last week
  • #66,842
  • Jun 8, 2020 1:23pm Jun 8, 2020 1:23pm
Quoting jaylovin
{quote} still active, added one here at 1.3387 same target - 1.3365 SL 1.3415 risk 0.2% in total

1.3366 close enough

all closed at 1.3370,

17+11 = 28 pips

———————-—————————————-

AU long 7008, tp 7042
  • #66,843
  • Jun 8, 2020 1:38pm Jun 8, 2020 1:38pm
1268.8 lowest day lc 2018
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #66,844
  • Jun 8, 2020 2:12pm Jun 8, 2020 2:12pm
Quoting Boulder
Still held all my rest todays shorts and wait for TP 1270...I can wait... meantime..just enjoy music... https://youtu.be/gONiqf3hYko
almost 60 years ago
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #66,845
  • Jun 8, 2020 2:39pm Jun 8, 2020 2:39pm
aud/usd on day 8 green candle at R. testing week. .6969 week trend close. atm 7026
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #66,846
  • Jun 8, 2020 2:43pm Jun 8, 2020 2:43pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} almost 60 years ago https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MbnrdCS57d0
Willie wrote and recorded it. When he was clean cut.

Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #66,847
  • Jun 8, 2020 2:48pm Jun 8, 2020 2:48pm
Quoting gatorinla
aud/usd on day 8 green candle at R. testing week. .6969 week trend close. atm 7026
yeah, 3 weeks now, 16 days, 3 small bear candles and 13 strong green candles. It just goes along whenever dollar goes down or equity up. What is the secret behind this move of 9+% in 3 weeks?
  • #66,848
  • Jun 8, 2020 3:17pm Jun 8, 2020 3:17pm
Quoting DMA Trader
stocks , gu , cad, aud all bulish eu bearish 1h close 4h still bull
eu still weak .. the only one
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #66,849
  • Jun 8, 2020 3:18pm Jun 8, 2020 3:18pm
Quoting krst8
{quote} yeah, 3 weeks now, 16 days, 3 small bear candles and 13 strong green candles. It just goes along whenever dollar goes down or equity up. What is the secret behind this move of 9+% in 3 weeks?
no secret. China buys commodities from Australia. When China is believed to be increasing commodity buying. It helps the aud. The slow down was before corona. The trend before corona was lower. When it tires, it will probably start again. The hype about corona improvement is pushing it up. China is filling its stockpile of raw materials while cheap. But if the economy does not improve. It will drop again. Contrary to what some think, the stock market (aiding with cheap fiat $ gov welfare ) isn't the economy. Last week's (NFP) employment numbers includes millions of people not working. Listed as working in NFP #
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #66,850
  • Jun 8, 2020 3:31pm Jun 8, 2020 3:31pm
CAD short traders (currently 38%) are the highest since april 2019.
Whenever it happens after a rally we had a retrace down, whenever it happened at the bottom of a move it reversed

Attached Image


Just food for thought
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #66,851
  • Jun 8, 2020 3:35pm Jun 8, 2020 3:35pm
Quoting krst8
{quote} yeah, 3 weeks now, 16 days, 3 small bear candles and 13 strong green candles. It just goes along whenever dollar goes down or equity up. What is the secret behind this move of 9+% in 3 weeks?
here w/o opinion here is the real story. Aud/jpy was well ahead of this.. but the proof is in the shipping drop 3rd/4th Q last year. Stocks were overpriced then. The extra recent trillions are floating this. Before corona, the economy was already in trouble. Add Copper and Caterpillar if you like. Recession was just a few months out, before corona affect. Baltic DS shows how bad it was. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #66,852
  • Edited 3:56pm Jun 8, 2020 3:43pm | Edited 3:56pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} no secret. China buys commodities from Australia. When China is believed to be increasing commodity buying. It helps the aud. The slow down was before corona. The trend before corona was lower. When it tires, it will probably start again. The hype about corona improvement is pushing it up. China is filling its stockpile of raw materials while cheap. But if the economy does not improve. It will drop again. Contrary to what some think, the stock market (aiding with cheap fiat $ gov welfare ) isn't the economy. Last week's (NFP) employment...
https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcemen...rel200529b.pdf
Not seen on any other documents previous to 2020
"Note: Unlimited amount against pooled collateral"

Its possible hyper inflation..


https://www.rba.gov.au/mkt-operation...lar-repos.html
There is a spread sheet called A03 please take note of the end date.
  • #66,853
  • Jun 8, 2020 3:55pm Jun 8, 2020 3:55pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} here w/o opinion here is the real story. Aud/jpy was well ahead of this.. but the proof is in the shipping drop 3rd/4th Q last year. Stocks were overpriced then. The extra recent trillions are floating this. Before corona, the economy was already in trouble. Add Copper and Caterpillar if you like. Recession was just a few months out, before corona affect. Baltic DS shows how bad it was. https://tradi/ngeconomics.com/commodity/baltic
Baltic pricing never recovered since 2008/09 crash. China is not building fake empty cities anymore.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #66,854
  • Jun 8, 2020 4:03pm Jun 8, 2020 4:03pm
Quoting q_import
{quote} https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcemen...rel200529b.pdf Not seen on any other documents previous to 2020 "Note: Unlimited amount against pooled collateral" Its possible hyper inflation.. https://www.rba.gov.au/mkt-operation...lar-repos.html There is a spread sheet called A03 please take note of the end date.
you lost me at the Japanese writing. Send me pictures in crayon. They did similar swaps in 2007/08.. Before the crash.

The charts above shows the levels today, lower than 2008 crash lows. I thought that was pretty interesting. Baltic had to re-set pricing. Who else has to re-set?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #66,855
  • Jun 8, 2020 4:19pm Jun 8, 2020 4:19pm
hey anyone have a tonnage chart for dry shipping?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #66,856
  • Jun 8, 2020 4:31pm Jun 8, 2020 4:31pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} here w/o opinion here is the real story. Aud/jpy was well ahead of this.. but the proof is in the shipping drop 3rd/4th Q last year. Stocks were overpriced then. The extra recent trillions are floating this. Before corona, the economy was already in trouble. Add Copper and Caterpillar if you like. Recession was just a few months out, before corona affect. Baltic DS shows how bad it was. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic
copper price has been dropping for 3 years. Its not because of oversupply. The storage (stockpile) has slowly dropped slightly over the same period. Long before corona.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 111 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #66,857
  • Edited 5:05pm Jun 8, 2020 4:34pm | Edited 5:05pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} copper price has been dropping for 3 years. Its not because of oversupply. The storage (stockpile) has slowly dropped slightly over the same period. Long before corona. {image}
https://unctad.org/en/PublicationCha...2019ch1_en.pdf

https://www.clarksons.com/services/research/
monitors shipping
https://www.clarksons.com/services/r...ing-and-trade/
Should be what your seeking

I dont know if you are seeking weekly updates of all vessels and cargo classification but it provides it.

If I was to trade BHP_Billiton
I would locate all the mine (Cargo Classification would help identify movement) then to country destination.
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/mar...ectory/all:BHP

I guess what I am saying is that you can go down to the actual companies that are purchasing the the raw materials and products and guage the marketplace and see how the companies purchasing the material are doing. On good earning of one of the companies it should roll backwards then you should have a list of all companies that neatly packaged would provide a logical trade based on fundamentals then use tech. for entry.
  • #66,858
  • Jun 8, 2020 4:50pm Jun 8, 2020 4:50pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} gu gy starting to push nu little tardy
gu 1st bear test not too bad, gj uj much better albeit just running into support nu bulls still testing resistance eu monthly weekly down daily secondary up possible resistance under daily traveling east, waiting support to crack, uc daily new low, not good for short term bulls still potential for daily weekly tho patience is very cheap
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #66,859
  • Jun 8, 2020 5:29pm Jun 8, 2020 5:29pm
Eu is in no mans land. Can go either way but upside still favoured in the near term. I, the one they call 1-0-6-3-5 om the other hand will look for short entries now
  • #66,860
  • Jun 8, 2020 6:15pm Jun 8, 2020 6:15pm
Quoting q_import
{quote} https://unctad.org/en/PublicationCha...2019ch1_en.pdf https://www.clarksons.com/services/research/ monitors shipping https://www.clarksons.com/services/r...ing-and-trade/ Should be what your seeking I dont know if you are seeking weekly updates of all vessels and cargo classification but it provides it. If I was to trade BHP_Billiton I would locate all the mine (Cargo Classification would help identify movement) then to country destination. https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/mar...ectory/all:BHP...
I think enough is available w/o getting too involved. Copper, Baltic and AJ are pretty indicative. I used copper before 208 crash. Stockpile was dropping, while price dropped. I figured the demand had dropped. If there was demand. Miners would have produced more if possible. If they were unable to keep up, the price would rise. Just the opposite happened. Cat stock was dropping from lack of demand. 2008 happens after. Ships were idle (moored) all over the world. I took a vacation in late June/July 2008. Very few condos on the beach had the lights on. A weekish later the crash, after July 4th weekend.

In 2008 free money was the blame. Followed by lack of liquidity. Today banks have tightened lending standards the past few months. The extra 800 p week will end. Those workers paid for not working ends after summer.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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