Institutional Equivalent Education?

Today is the last day for the EarlyBird offer above.
This is your opportunity if you were ever curious about how good a veteran institutional trader can be; if Ray really is what we say; or just wanted to learn 'Tape Reading' floor trader/local/institutional style.

A new video has been posted as an intro to Ray's Make Money on Mondays 'Reading The Tape' course.
It is worth watching if only because it shows how you need more than one good technique/Value Line/Skill in order to be consistently making money in the markets:
https://compassfx.com/master-trading-training/reading-the-tape/

Ray did another of his marathon sessions yesterday as the first Money Monday 'Tape reading Class'.
Just under 4 and a half hours not including the tiny breaks in between.
Here are the titles of the recordings which will be available to those who signed up (and those who might still wish to sign up:

Monday “Reading the Tape” Class Sessions
06-01-20 Reading the Tape 1.1 - Introduction (46 mins)
06-01-20 Reading the Tape 1.2 - Intern Trade Exercise (30 mins)
06-01-20 Reading the Tape 1.3 - Time Framing (42 mins)
06-01-20 Reading the Tape 1.4 - ATHI - ATLO (28 mins)
06-01-20 Reading the Tape 1.5 - Market Maker Game Process Trade Exercise (33 mins)
06-01-20 Reading the Tape 1.6 - Market Deltas Trade Exercise (1 hr 18 mins)

Not mentioned, but covered in the class were:
Types of Market Participants
How to detect the big Commercials entering the Market
How to use that as Supply/Demand or Support/Resistance
How to determine when the S&D (S&R) no longer holds and what action to then take
Types of trades (entry) and their pros and cons
The Best entry for most retail traders (BSG Squeeze).


Since this was all recorded, it isn't too late to sign up.Those attending last night were amazed as usual.

Based upon what he is covering most of which is applicable to all markets not just the S&P (from FX to Agriculturals, from Metals to Energies, from Bonds to Equity Indices) he is giving away about 1/4 of his Full Course for the knock down price of only $99 for 5 sessions over 4 weeks i.e. every Monday in June.

No sooner does 1 good course come along, but there is another one.
The MAX is offering a live demonstration of trading the NFP, plus some freebies and discounts on new courses.
Here is the email I got:
**************************************************
http://img.max-tradingsystem.com/im/...iuySCw1KrrJL1E

Training Great Traders Since 2008

Your Live-Trading Ticket and More

1. Complimentary seat for Friday's Live-Trading
2. MAX Price Levels Service no-cost trial
3. 15% refund today as an extra bonus

Hi Ian,

If you haven't had opportunity to see the playback video of Saturday's webinar, you can Click Here to watch Eusebio teach 3 important trading tips and get all the latest info.

Webinar Discount Links for Courses

1. Enroll for a MAX Course and get a 15% refund within 12 hours. Offfer good until 12:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, June 3rd.
2. Enroll for the ETF-Standard Course and get the ETF-Primer Course as a complimentary bonus. There is time to complete the Primer before Standard begins. Offfer good until 12:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, June 3rd.
3. Enroll for ETF-Standard before 12:00 p.m. on Wednesday, June 3rd and get BOTH bonus offers.

Click Here for ETF-Standard -- Begins June 11th

Click Here for ETF-Primer -- Begins June 15th

Remember, the first 10 traders to enroll for ETF-Standard get BOTH courses plus a 15% refund within 12 hours.
See MAX methods at work on real-time charts!

, Watching real-time trading is the perfect way to see the truth about a system. On live charts there's no exaggeration, no false claims...just real results..

CLICK HERE to attend or to get the video playback.

Join the complimentary MAX Price Levels Service

Our sample Price Levels Service is available at no cost, just as a thank-you for watching or attending our webinars--and not just for a week or two, but "forever." This can dramatically improve your trading, and we'll provide all the info needed to use the Levels on your charts.

Join MAX Price Levels Here

If you have questions, please reply.

Have a good week, stay healthy and safe!

Craig
MAXTradingSystem.com

PS I want you to see exactly how MAX attacks the market, at zero expense.

Get registered now for our real-time trading session coming up Friday

Can't attend? Register anyway, and I'll send you the video of the real-time trading session.
******************************************************************************

The MAX course that I did was the MAX Lite (fits in between Primer and Standard courses).
I think the MAX courses are good for those who don't want/can't handle the intensive education offered by Ray's Sharp Edge courses.
I have traded the MAX Lite in Demo and backtested it and it worked as good as they claim but by then I needed to know WHY- not just to follow an indicator.

Trading retail OTC Forex in USA, so FIFO affects all positions opened.
Broker is Oanda. Costs with spread and slippage about 1.6pips per side.
Would you take Rays' course if you were working in that kind of environment, or would you feel like you had to move to Futures mkt. to get anything of genuine use out of the course.

Hi wmram, Thanks for your question.

It's impossible to give a specific answer, since it very much depends both upon you and your Broker. However Ray keeps saying that you should always trade the different styles and techniques he teaches using a Demonstration or Simulation Account until you have mastered them. This should be of the same size that you would trade a live money account. So that by the time you are putting real money at risk it is all second nature to you.

All of Ray's teaching is based on how he was taught by the big Banks, how he has taught traders at the big Banks and how he has adapted those so that an ordinary retail trader can either use or make use of the professional's trades.

I understand only too well how costs per side per unit can make of break a trading strategy.

While Ray's full Sharp Edge course covers all timeframes and nearly all markets and styles of trading, his 'Tape Reading' course is mainly focussing on the shorter timeframes and being able to Scalp a market. Ultimately it will cover some specifics about trading the ES Future. This was chosen because of the availability of the Micro ES Mini contract which is $1.25 per tick and has a day Margin of as little as $50 which makes it 'affordable' for most retail traders.

Having said that, there was nothing he covered last Monday which was either Market or Timeframe specific, though this will be less so going forward, indeed some of what he will cover will be only applicable to trading the Equity Indices and some only to trading the Futures Markets.

I found that with Forex it was not just the costs that were important, but the rules of the Broker. Some Brokers had rules which effectively prevented (or severely restricted) Scalping e.g. Actions to prevent you opening and then closing a trade within less than 1 minute, not allowing Limit and/or Stop Orders within 1 or 2 (full sized - 4 digit) pips/ticks etc.
Certainly if your Broker is like that then you won't be able to either Scalp or even trade short swings the way that Ray teaches and advises.

I know that things have changed since I last traded Spot FX. I also know that Oanda has a reputation as a good retail Broker - though I have never traded with them.
Back when I did trade Spot FX and CFds my absolute maximum spread was 3.0 ticks or pips - which is per Round Turn and was mainly for News Trading which although short time-frame is very high Volatility.
Your 1.6 would be a little outside my tolerance back then. I traded Euro/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/GBP all at less than 1.0 pips spread. I traded S&P (500) Index at a spread of 0.3 (where a Tick is 0.25), DAX Index at a spread of 1.0, and WTI Oil at a spread of 3.0 (but I only ever traded the high volatility EIA Oil Inventories with that spread).

I hope this helps.

P.S. FIFO really doesn't make a difference, except in managing complex multi-unit, multi-entry layer strategies.

Yes it does help; I don't think that Rays' course would lend itself to trading through a retail forex broker like Oanda. I have no problems with Oanda generally speaking, but with the spread that I'm looking plus whatever slippage that I might see I would need to have at least a 5 pip favorable move just to have a chance to break even on a trade. I think that to trade at a standard U.S. retail brokerage you might well have to play a numbers game(win more than you lose) on a higher time frame. I could be wrong about, but that's the way it looks from here.

Yes, I think I agree with you when it come to trading a live account. For practice in a Demo or simulated account perhaps it is OK, but you would probably need to expect to make a paper loss after costs, which is why it is so hard to learn to trade as a retail trader.

Here is a comparison of the Micro ES futures contract liquidity versus those of the Micro 6E (Euro/USD) and the Micro 6B (GBP/USD).


The one for the Micro ES contract is lice with reasonable liquidity at all 10 price levels above and below, but those of the Micro 6E and especially the Micro 6B are 'lumpy' even during the US overlap with the European session. They are much worse both before and after the US session, where the Micro ES has enough liquidity for most retail traders to trade both during the US Session and also the European session.

Push - Don't Push the Button !

Going though my many folders on the subject of trading, I came across a text and an audio file called 'Wait - Hey, Don't Push The Button'.
I remember that this used to be played quite frequently on one course that I attended.

But although impulsiveness is a serious problem, so is hesitation.
So Ray is often telling us to 'Just press the F***ing Button!'

Here is my personal take on this conflict:

Wait - Hey, Don't Push The Button. (an audio file)

A Hilarious Reminder don't be a Duffus.
By Anrew D. edited/expanded by Ian Foster.

WAIT IS IMPORTANT ALSO TOO!!!
Remember to yourself to wait till there is whatever your Trading Plan requires:
An L2, a Failed Auction, a COB change of behaviour
level, a Supply/Demand level, A Support/resistance Level, a Red/Green Level, a Floor/Ceiling, a Wholesale Price Level, a Commercial Buy/Sell Zone, a Measured Move or a Half-Back level, a Value Divergence, a Volume Cycle, a Tick Extreme, a Buy Program or a Sell Program, a Delta Divergence, a Reversal Candle, Trapped Traders, a Volume Pressure change etc. has been confirmed before you Push The Button!
Don't jump the gun in hopes that you'll miss out on a trade if you don't get in right away.
As like chasing price, fading incorrectly, etc. Be patient
and wait for the perfect trade opportunity to present itself.
If it doesn't, no big deal, what me worry. Just be patient calm and re-analysis your plan and wait for any next possible perfect trade opportunity presenting itself, as Master Ray teaches us.

And if you find yourself going through a lot of doubt, a feeling of uncertainty or lack of conviction as what you should or should not take a trade.
You are confused and or second, third, fourth guessing yourself as
to what you are seeing on the charts and on and on, etc, etc.
but yet you have this strong urge to trade away =, just play this
mp3, wav audio file to help keep you from making any rash decisions.
Keep it on your desktop where it is handy to access.
Enjoy, I think you will like the hilarious of the conversation
in the audio file!

Have a wonderful day!
Sincerely yours always
Andrew D.


Press the F***ing Button !
On the other hand, Ray urges us to ‘Press the F***ing Button’

Too much confirmation is as bad (or almost as bad) as no confirmation!
As Warren Buffett says, we ‘Pay a High Price for a Rosy Consensus!’
If you enter a trade too late, then it is almost certain to either ‘give you heat’ if not Stop You Out!
If you Pre-plan your trade, then you are primed to enter immediately that you get your confirmation trigger. Just 1 or 2 pips/ticks later and you may not be able to get your Stop Loss into a Break Even +1 position and thus able to rest easy with a no-lose position.
Unless you are trying to trade like a big Commercial Hedger (very deep pockets), every swing trade starts out as a scalp until the first unit is taken in profit and the SL is at BE+1. That way you don’t have to hold on to a losing trade and hope price resumes in your direction.


Original text with the .wav audio file:

It's been a while since I knocked Boris Schlossberg (of BK Forex). So my response to this email from him is overdue:
(my comments in blue ).

************************************************************
Dear Ian
Trading is NOT a Business
https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...fmazEL9JtA--~C
https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...fmazEL9JtA--~Chttps://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...OhDaA3Na3A--~C

https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...fmazEL9JtA--~Chttps://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...fmazEL9JtA--~C
This week I took my account down by 5% and brought it back up.
Not once.
Not twice.
But three times.
And that was just on Thursday.

Did I trade like an idiot?
Check.
Did I impulse trade?
Check.
Did I revenge trade with excess leverage?
Check

But. I also unearthed some interesting insights into the behavior of stock index price action that served me very well later on.

On Friday I turned chaos into clarity, revealed my new ideas to our chat room, and as happens to so often, traders in my room took my setups and traded them much better than I banking nice pips all day long.

When trading gurus tell you that you should treat trading as a business they couldn’t be more wrong. Trading is a business the way screenwriting is a business, the way painting is business, the way poetry is a business.

Trading is nothing like making donuts or cars or even planning weddings. - Many or even most businesses are unlike those!
There is no set formula. -Correct but who, other than an idiot - the type on which marketers prey, would expect such a high paying 'profession' to be easy?
There is no physical certainty of food chemistry or metallurgy or any other science whose laws inviolable and repeatable. There is not even the general certainty of sociology which operates under the premise that people want status thus making the business of planning weddings relatively predictable.

I Trade Indices, CFDs, Stock Spreads
Every Single Day
Speculation is observation and while human nature is broadly the same from Homer to Shakespeare to Balzac to Roth it is just different enough that we need new literature to capture the uniqueness of each epoch.

That’s why writing a trading plan is much more like writing a novel than it is like writing a business plan. There is no “addressable market”. There is no “demand”. There is no “supply”. One day it’s massive, the next day it disappears altogether. - Yes it builds and fades, but that doen't mean that it doesn't exist. Money searches to find the most rewarding home. That could be Stocks, Bonds, Commodities or Gold etc. But it is always finding a home in one of those!
And certainly, without a doubt, there is absolutely no “value proposition.” - No value proposition is what 'retail gurus' want their subscribers to believe! Do you think for a minute that the big commercial banks, hedge funds etc. invest or trade without considering value? If so then Why did the US stockmarket fall so hard on Thursday (Large increase in Covid in Texas) or rise so much the previous Friday (Unexpectedly good NFP), why then do changes in interest rates affect Bond prices and currency pair valuations?

The market is perhaps the purest commercial expression of every flawed human impulse that art has struggled to understand ever since man could record his ideas. There is no measured reason or rationality. - You mean that you can't see one, not that it doesn't exist. Knowing something exists and being able to see or detect it (on a personal level) are two completely different things!
There is only pain, pleasure, braggadocio, despair, deception and power plays. And all of it happens every single day.

Furthermore, in trading more than any other daily activity, there is a perpetual feeling of uncertainty. The knowledge that no matter how many times you’ve taken the step before, you never quite know if the ground below you will crumble on the very next one you make.

That’s why approaching trading with all the imagination of a bookkeeper is absolutely wrong. Bookkeeping is vital to understanding the basic mechanics of money management but in and of itself it is little value in mastering the skill. -You don't really mean this, I have seen you talk about the importance of good money management. Trading without good money management is relying purely upon luck!
Trading is an art and like all art, it is driven by curiosity, discovery, and most importantly the process of trial and error. How many sketches did Picasso make? How many drafts of Catch-22 did Heller write? Don’t bother looking that up. These are rhetorical questions.

That’s why I always find it amusing that newbie traders try a strategy for a week, attempt a few tentative trades, and the moment it incurs losses quit. If every writer, every painter, every inventor had that attitude where would we be as a civilization?

That’s why I hate the statement - “treat your trading like a business”. - The full statement is "treat your trading as seriously as any other business". It doesn't imply that you should ignore all psychology and behavioural finance!
It doesn’t even begin to explain the true nature of the activity. Treat your trading as a lifelong art project and use your business skills to stay in the game is not nearly as pithy but is certainly more accurate.



Happy Trading.
B
**************************************************************************************************************

Proof that Value exists and can be seen and traded:









I can understand that not all trading 'educators' can read Value, but to claim that it doesn't exist is like saying that the earth is flat!

Here is a recent email from Lance Beggs (of Your Trading Coach) which talks about 'trapped traders'.
Ray also teaches entries which take advantage of trapped traders, but often he combines this with 'Value' and 'Liquidity' in order to get an earlier entry than Lance uses.
But I'm not allowed to show you the ways Ray trades thees situations.

Here ( ver 3 posts due to the number of images required) is Lance's take on Trapped Traders at the RTH:

****************************************************************
Hi Traders,

We've worked through quite a few "trap before the open" examples over the last couple of years. Let's look at one today where the plan needed just a little amendment.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs.

When the Trap Entry is itself a Trap

Let's start by viewing the market right as it opens:

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Readers of the YTC Price Action Trader have several principles they use for projecting the upcoming price swings and identifying areas of potential trade opportunity.

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continued...

BUT WAIT!

There is something else that should be jumping out at you as relevant as well.

Something that we have discussed numerous times over the last couple of years.

That's right - it's a trap RIGHT BEFORE the regular session open.

See here if you missed the prior articles:

1. https://yourtradingcoach.com/trading-process-and-strategy/traps-just-before-rth-open/
2. https://yourtradingcoach.com/trading-process-and-strategy/traps-just-before-rth-open-2/
3. https://yourtradingcoach.com/trading-process-and-strategy/traps-just-before-rth-open-3/
4. https://yourtradingcoach.com/trading-process-and-strategy/traps-just-before-rth-open-4/
5. https://yourtradingcoach.com/trading-process-and-strategy/traps-just-before-rth-open-5/

Here is the general idea:

This is a feature of the open, long recognised through my daily Market Structure & Price Action Journal practice.

Traps just before the open can often provide nice follow-through, when the breakout fails in the opening price sequence.

Attached Image

Wait!

What?

Why not today?

Because there is a price action feature that suggests the trap is itself potentially a trap.

It's IMPORTANT to look at the area the trap is moving into.

While normally I only put minor weighting on overnight price structure, there are some times it offers clear warning signs.

Like this:

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continued....

Let's move forward and see the outcome.

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A break of a significant level just immediately prior to the RTH open, or immediately after the open, should have you considering the potential for trap-driven opportunity. But just pause for a second and check the context. Does the pre-open structure provide a potential barrier to movement? The trap concept will still apply. However you might just need to widen the area and hold off on entry, until the barrier is also broken.

Because otherwise, you might find that the trap you're seeking to trade is itself a trap!

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs

******************************************************************************************

My observations:
The low just before the RTH Open looks like an obvious liquidity move, designed to flush out Sellers or Stops of previous day's Buyers.
If Value measuerse supported (or at least didn't negate the proposition of a Long trade,then Ray's students would probably feel that 15 points was sufficient room to take a Long (and get their SL to Break Even +1) even if the 'opening Trap' was itself a 'Trap'.

Here is the latest from Lance Beggs.
In this he is contemplating the unpredictability of the Market, but without being like Boris and claiming that there aren't any clues.
Considering that he is unwittingly handicapping himself since he doesn't know how to use 'Value', he does quite well:

*********************************************************************

Today - Anything Can Happen

I sent out the following social media post last Saturday:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

All-time highs in the NASDAQ! Incredible when you consider where we were just two months prior. And of course when you consider the current state of the world.

But that's the nature of markets. They don't care what we think.

So I thought I should expand upon two of the statements within that post.

"Are you able to reframe your beliefs to allow you to operate more effectively?"

"Can you separate your narrative about the world from your job of recognising and adapting to the actual market bias?"

Because, as an intraday trader, one thing that is absolutely devastating to your P&L is attempting to trade a personal feeling that is not aligned with the actual direction of the markets.

I can completely understand anyone who feels that "This market is so overbought. It doesn't make sense. The crash is coming for sure. This thing needs to go down."

I've been there myself.

And the feeling is not a problem. It's acting upon that feeling that is the problem.

It's positioning short when the market just continues on higher, caring little for you, your beliefs and your long-term viability in this trading game. That destroys accounts.

So the rally continued. Here's the NQ at the time of writing this article, about eight hours before the open on Thursday morning.

Attached Image

Success in intraday trading requires that you find some way to separate your FEELINGS about the market from your ACTIONS in trading the market. Leaving you free then to trade whatever direction the market moves, despite your underlying beliefs.

Here's a simple method I use:

Shift your beliefs and expectations further into the future.

In three steps:

(1) "I feel that this is so overbought that it just has to fall."

(2) "But that doesn't have to happen today. Maybe tomorrow. Maybe next week."

(3) "Today - anything can happen!"

So not only do I acknowledge my feeling and belief about potential market movement. I also allow it to be true.

But not necessarily today.

This frees me up to accept, recognise and adapt to whatever direction the market wants to go.

As shared in Wednesday's social media post:

Attached Image

Repeating for emphasis - "Being open to all three possibilities allows me the flexibility to adapt to actual market conditions. And to recognise and adapt to changes in sentiment and structure."

Because today (and in fact every day) - anything can happen.

Attached Image

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continued in next post....

continued:

Right now it's several hours before the open on Thursday. The markets feel even more overbought to me. But that doesn't mean it will fall today. It might. But it could also wait till Friday. Or maybe next week.

Today, anything can happen.

Becoming stuck in a mindset that the market SHOULD do one particular thing, just because you FEEL that it should, is poison to your account balance.

You have to find a way to separate your feelings about the market from your actions in trading that market. And then allow yourself to be open to all possibilities, ready to recognise and adapt your trading to the ACTUAL market conditions.

This is the plan that works for me - shifting my expectations forward in time. Hopefully it helps you as well.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs


PS. Thursday update:

There's the fall I was expecting...

Attached Image

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*******************************************************************************

Of course, had he been 'consulting the specialists value line(s) like Ray's students, Lance would have got a better 'heads up' !

I see that CompassFX are being a little more relaxed about showing Ray in action.
Here is the email I got yesterday, which includes 2 YouTube videos of Ray in his live trading room.

***************************************************************************

Happy Saturday...here’s a rare sneak peek inside our room and Ray working the markets.

Two quick snippets of Ray trading yesterday, traders love these sessions and the trades!

Red/Green Trade Levels and the MOC Madness (market close) is my favorite program, with the volatility in the markets this fits for traders around the clock..Martin agrees with me too!
“...Just like to say I don’t believe there is anyone else in the world who could come up with the MOC Madness Trade...last night at the close was absolutely brilliant. So, thank you Ray!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Are you using Institutional Bank Strategies and Tactics of the Top 1%?

If you’re feeling a little unsure, not making the progress you want...it’s time to work with Ray.

"Reading The Tape"
We’ve made the “Reading the Tape” Trade Sessions on Monday’s available to any trader that wants to work with Ray, improve their trade skills and access the same tactics and strategies Ray uses to consistently trade any market, anywhere on the chart with an edge.
We’re ready, are you registered?

Institutional “Reading the Tape” Trading Skills...The Secret Weapon.

Live Institutional Tactics and Strategies...live training and trading on the hard-right edge.

Get On-Demand Access Now
New LIVE Monday “Reading the Tape” Trade Sessions

Introductory Series available On-Demand. Get Started TODAY

1. 1.1 - Introduction
2. 1.2 - Intern Trade Exercise
3. 1.3 - Time Framing
4. 1.4 - ATHI - ATLO
5. 1.5 - Market Maker Game Process Live Trade Exercise
6. 1.6 - Market Deltas Live Trade Exercise

Institutional “Reading the Tape” Trading Skills...on the hard-right edge, the secret weapon.

Monday’s are game changers for traders...see you on the inside!

********************************************************************************************************************

Do experienced traders learn much from Ray?
- Are you kidding me!

I have been in his live room or over 6 yrs now and I still learn something every week or so.

Another email from CompassFX:

***********************************

Are you wondering about the “Reading the Tape” Trade Series with Ray?

I had a great conversation with Duane about the sessions and joining Ray in our full mentoring trade program, he sent me a message to share with you about these sessions...his message is worth sharing!
Hi Kim,
Thanks for talking on the phone with me today.
I've learned more from Ray this last two weeks on Monday's about how the markets work than I've learned in all the years combined since I started following the markets some 20 years ago!
You are very kind to spend the time to answer the questions I had also.
Thanks again, Duane
If you’re wondering if Ray provides incredible insight and value, Duane knows.
"Reading The Tape" Trade Series ONLY $99
We’ve made the “Reading the Tape” Trade Sessions on Monday’s available to any trader that wants to work with Ray, improve their trade skills and access the same tactics and strategies Ray uses to consistently trade any market, anywhere on the chart with an edge.
We’re back at it tomorrow, are you registered, ready to go?

Institutional “Reading the Tape” Trading Skills...The Secret Weapon.

Live Institutional Tactics and Strategies...live training and trading on the hard-right edge.

Get On-Demand Access and Get Started Today
Start Studying Now For Just $99...
Here’s the outline of “Reading the Tape” Introduction Session

1. 1.1 - Introduction
2. 1.2 - Intern Trade Exercise
3. 1.3 - Time Framing
4. 1.4 - ATHI - ATLO
5. 1.5 - Market Maker Game Process Live Trade Exercise
6. 1.6 - Market Deltas Live Trade Exercise

Reading the Tape - Part Two

1. 2.1 - Toxicity - Liquidity Levels
2. 2.2 - Market Makers Edge Trade Exercise
3. 2.3 - Withdrawal of Liquidity
4. 2.4 - Program Trades

Institutional “Reading the Tape” Trading Skills...on the hard-right edge, the secret weapon.

Monday’s are game changers for traders...see you on the inside!

**********************************************************************************************************************

Here is an interesting question posed to Lance Beggs (of Your Trading Coach).
My own comments are in blue at the end:
************************************************************************************
Hi Traders,

Today let's present my response to the question: "Do you think I should make "xyz" change to my plan?"

Happy Trading,

Lance Beggs.

One Trade Does Not Provide Enough Data

I think it's time we revisited a topic we discussed a few years back. The fact that an individual trade does not provide sufficient data to allow you to make informed changes to your plan.

Changes MUST consider the impact across a series of trades.

I see this problem repeatedly in email conversation with new traders, who have not yet understood the nature of edge.

Their questions come in various forms but this latest one is typical of the general nature of all of these questions:

1. "I took profits on this trade at the target area, only to see it then continue on without me. I could have got twice the profit if I held. Do you think I should use a trailing stop rather than targets?"

The trade involved a 2R profit at the target, which could have been 4R if he held for a trail exit. An addition of 2R to the account balance.

And so the trader was disappointed. And frustrated. Because when viewed after the fact, it was just SO OBVIOUS!

But here's the problem:

Progress comes from analysis and review of your performance over a series of trades. Not individual trades.

Changes to your plan must come from analysis of results over a series of trades, whether you prefer to use samples of fixed number (20, 50, whatever) or a fixed time period (weekly, monthly).

You ask, "I took profits on this trade at the target area, only to see it then continue on without me. I could have got twice the profit if I held. Do you think I should use a trailing stop rather than targets?"

Or even a more generic, "Do you think I should make "xyz" change to my plan?"

Here's my response:

1. Only if you're seeking an answer in response to a recognised problem or underperformance across a series of trades, and not one individual trade.
2. And only if your subsequent investigation of that problem or underperformance shows clearly that this change would have improved your edge over that series of trades.
3. If yes to both, then implement the change and see what it does to the next group of trades.

You have access to this information. Do the work.

Assess the outcome over a larger sample.

And determine the appropriate plan of attack for your next series of trades.

You might argue, "But Lance, we don't know how the change will impact the next series?"

True. No-one knows.

That is why you continue to assess. Make the changes and then reassess. Did they help? Or is further work required?

Continue to track performance. And continue to learn, grow and develop in pursuit of never-ending improvement in both profits and consistency.

But never due to an emotional reaction to one single trade. This is a game of profiting over a SERIES of trades.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs
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While I agree with all of what Lance says, as a student of Ray I must go further:

1. When you enter a trade it is impossible to know the outcome (profit or loss), much less far price may travel, how many and what sized pullbacks there may be on the way before its ultimate reversal.

2. Factors which affect 1. include
Quality of trade Setup
Quality of trade Entry
Time of day
Upcoming news
Characteristics of the market being traded such as Volatility, Respecting of Round Numbers, Supply demand Levels, size of Stop Runs, size of Market Maker Auctions (fluctuations going nowhere).

3. Pure Luck/ Bad-Luck including unscheduled news.

Therefore to me it seems pointless to have a fixed final Profit Target for all trades.
Instead set each trade up on its merits before Entry. I prefer trading at least 3 units, so at TP1 I exit 1 unit and move the remaining stop to no loss (after costs). Then I have TP2 and TP3 based upon the Market Structure, but I'm prepared to change these dynamically as the trade evolves including using a closer 'Stop in Profit ' when approaching significant levels, or if 'Value' looks like it may be going against the trade.


On The MAX courses they teach Scaling Out and Scaling in by taking partial profits and by re-entries.
The Markets are dynamic and so the trader needs to be dynamic too.

Hi ianf0ster,

I saw couple of videos from Ray on Youtube & bit confused.
He never show MT4 screen & most of the time talk about 2 lines. It's quite difficult to relate it to forex trading.
After reading last few posts understood he will share those tools later but still without MT4 & no forex pairs being discussed, I'm still wondering what exactly is the course about.
I thought of joining Reading the tape session but unfortunately it's timezone is not very convenient for me.
Can you please clarify? Thanks a lot.