Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 3110 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #62,181
  • Jun 7, 2020 7:32am Jun 7, 2020 7:32am
I'd like to share my thoughts on TA and talk about my experience in the markets.

Early on into my trading career I came to the conclusion that most traders just trade what they "think" will happen... and I found that funny because why would the market care what you think? it doesn't. Your thoughts don't affect the market and hence I thought this made no sense. When I understood this I understood that in order to be a successful trader you need a successful trading system (an objective rule based system).

Currently there is this hype over "objective trading" but with a lot of pain and effort I found out that hardly anybody (99.9%) of traders have an objective edge, and that profitable traders don't really have an edge on the market but they are the edge. How can the trader be the edge? Well I believe that it's down to how lucky they are as an individual because they have no objective means of an edge, they just do subjective things and somehow they end up being profitable.

What subjective things would a profitable trader do?

  1. Change position sizes depending on how they feel
  2. Cut positions early depending on how they feel
  3. Let positions run depending on how they feel
  4. Take some opportunities and skip out on others depending on how they feel

There's probably a few more possibilities but these are a few I could think of. But these are all completely subjective things that traders do and with luck on their side doing these things can let them be profitable traders.

At this point I don't believe that the majority of "profitable" traders have an edge on the market. They only edge they really have is how lucky they are.

There's no TA system that "just works" or has a statistical edge on the market. Most of the "systems" on FF don't even have any statistical evidence towards their success. The statistics aren't even being measured so how do all these system providers even know their "system" has an edge!

If there are traders with statistical edges on the market... they are probably not doing the work manually and are using code and algorithms to crunch up the data and gather real statistical data... they don't just look at charts and assume they have found an edge.

  • #62,182
  • Edited 8:59am Jun 7, 2020 8:46am | Edited 8:59am
Wah what time please.

Inserted Video


Inserted Video


The secret for london's suckcesspool?
Hahahahasuckcessful.
  • #62,183
  • Jun 7, 2020 8:54am Jun 7, 2020 8:54am
Quoting sharpiemomo
I'd like to share my thoughts on TA and talk about my experience in the markets. Early on into my trading career I came to the conclusion that most traders just trade what they "think" will happen... and I found that funny because why would the market care what you think? it doesn't. Your thoughts don't affect the market and hence I thought this made no sense. When I understood this I understood that in order to be a successful trader you need a successful trading system (an objective rule based system). Currently there is this hype over "objective...
Are you sure you can trade?
Your brain seems too noisy.
Try sharpen your reading skills instead.
Start at page 1.
While i try sharpen my writing skills, target 9999 pages.

Inserted Video

Regards
  • #62,184
  • Jun 7, 2020 8:55am Jun 7, 2020 8:55am
Quoting fti
{quote} Are you sure you can trade? Your brain is too busy. Regards
"A trader is a person or entity, in finance, who buys and sells financial instruments such as stocks, bonds, commodities, derivatives, and mutual funds in the capacity of agent, hedger, arbitrageur, or speculator."

Sure I can go into MT4 and press buy/sell on my terminal. Doesn't take a genius.
  • #62,185
  • Jun 7, 2020 9:02am Jun 7, 2020 9:02am
Quoting sharpiemomo
I'd like to share my thoughts on TA and talk about my experience in the markets. Early on into my trading career I came to the conclusion that most traders just trade what they "think" will happen... and I found that funny because why would the market care what you think? it doesn't. Your thoughts don't affect the market and hence I thought this made no sense. When I understood this I understood that in order to be a successful trader you need a successful trading system (an objective rule based system). Currently there is this hype over "objective...
You said early in your trading career. How long have you been in this career? BTW, read the first 200 pages of this thread before going any further.

Here's a thought I had while reading your post. You say decisions are made by some traders depending on how a trader feels. I'd make an upfront statement that none of us make decisions based on what we know, since we do not really "know" anything about what the market is about to do. Feeling the market is important, in that we need to have some connection to the market, to sense or feel how it is unfolding or developing or moving -- to dance with it. This feel, or the dance, is not for the uninitiated. If you do not have experience dancing with the market, you will stumble and fall, which is expensive in trading the forex. But, and this is IMHO, some traders bring something critical and imperative to trading, and that is, they believe. They have confidence in their dance, and experience in dancing with the market. But they also believe the market will let them dance with it. Many people today lack the ability to believe, because they lack faith or the ability to develop and live by their faith. I'm not saying the faith or belief in God is the answer to successful trading, but if you are programmed with the ability to have faith in your ability to dance with the market, and all the goes into building that faith, then trading the forex is much less complex. The first man who I traded with , long before I found fti, taught me about applying faith in trading. You have to have faith that the market will unfold as it always has in the past (you have some belief about the candles to the right of the screen that you can't see yet, and test that belief with a scout trade), and faith that if it doesn't then you have the wisdom and fortitude to react accordingly (you need to be nimble and reactive to change, to cut your scout, switch directions or go to the sidelines). Feel is important, but knowledge based faith is a very important element. IMHO.

Just a thought.
  • #62,186
  • Jun 7, 2020 9:03am Jun 7, 2020 9:03am
Some of the things I look at in no particular order:

Structure, accumulation, levels, tests, liquidity, volume, time, vol profile, pace, crowded, intention, being accurate and targets

Obviously, this is tied in with a decent macro narrative

I like your idea of a dance - as that it what it is
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #62,187
  • Jun 7, 2020 9:06am Jun 7, 2020 9:06am
Quoting sharpiemomo
{quote} "A trader is a person or entity, in finance, who buys and sells financial instruments such as stocks, bonds, commodities, derivatives, and mutual funds in the capacity of agent, hedger, arbitrageur, or speculator." Sure I can go into MT4 and press buy/sell on my terminal. Doesn't take a genius.
forgot dealers.
You forgot dealers.
These have real theoritesticle edge.

  • #62,188
  • Jun 7, 2020 9:09am Jun 7, 2020 9:09am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} You said early in your trading career. How long have you been in this career? BTW, read the first 200 pages of this thread before going any further. Here's a thought I had while reading your post. You say decisions are made by some traders depending on how a trader feels. I'd make an upfront statement that none of us make decisions based on what we know, since we do not really "know" anything about what the market is about to do. Feeling the market is important, in that we need to have some connection to the market, to sense or feel how...
  • #62,189
  • Jun 7, 2020 9:11am Jun 7, 2020 9:11am
I was making a response to the thread topic of TA in the sense that it works and it doesn't and my thoughts and experience towards that and how it all really is just subjective nonsense.

I'm dyslexic. I am not really interested or capable of reading 200 pages.
  • #62,190
  • Jun 7, 2020 9:17am Jun 7, 2020 9:17am
Quoting sharpiemomo
I was making a response to the thread topic of TA in the sense that it works and it doesn't and my thoughts and experience towards that and how it all really is just subjective nonsense. I'm dyslexic. I am not really interested or capable of reading 200 pages.
Too bad.
Its not MY LOSS.
SAYUR NANA.

If every trader respondse to my thread it will be 9,999,999 pages long snd have 9999 trading systems.
Hahahaha
Unfortunately here only 1 narrow road.
And is real life one.
My footprints in the sand.
Oh by the way, i was top dog.
  • #62,191
  • Jun 7, 2020 9:27am Jun 7, 2020 9:27am
Quoting fti
{quote} forgot dealers. You forgot dealers. These have real theoritesticle edge.
Attached Image


Tells me to sharpen my reading skills.... Okay Mr "theoritesticle"
  • #62,192
  • Jun 7, 2020 10:23am Jun 7, 2020 10:23am
Quoting sharpiemomo
{quote} {image} Tells me to sharpen my reading skills.... Okay Mr "theoritesticle"
Slow and steady does it.
And after reading i not even guarantee if yoi can get it.
Took me 10 years write it.
Only took mr 6 years make super dealers at banks. 3 of world top 5 by capitalisation at that time.
Now retired and sickly. So is only time you no need get penciled in for months waiting to speek to me. lucky sob.
  • #62,193
  • Edited 10:58am Jun 7, 2020 10:31am | Edited 10:58am
..
  • #62,194
  • Jun 7, 2020 10:37am Jun 7, 2020 10:37am
I finally got the difference between scout and pointman. small difference huge impact.

Happy trading
  • #62,195
  • Jun 7, 2020 10:57am Jun 7, 2020 10:57am
Inserted Video


Inserted Video
  • #62,196
  • Jun 7, 2020 10:58am Jun 7, 2020 10:58am
Quoting fti
{quote} Slow and steady does it. And after reading i not even guarantee if yoi can get it. Took me 10 years write it. Only took mr 6 years make super dealers at banks. 3 of world top 5 by capitalisation at that time. Now retired and sickly. So is only time you no need get penciled in for months waiting to speek to me. lucky sob.
Sorry for messing with you Mista Supa Dealer.... Please don't hurt me.
  • #62,197
  • Jun 7, 2020 11:17am Jun 7, 2020 11:17am
Quoting sharpiemomo
{quote} Sorry for messing with you Mista Supa Dealer.... Please don't hurt me.
Hahahahahaha.
Inserted Video
  • #62,198
  • Jun 7, 2020 11:22am Jun 7, 2020 11:22am
Quoting sharpiemomo
I was making a response to the thread topic of TA in the sense that it works and it doesn't and my thoughts and experience towards that and how it all really is just subjective nonsense. I'm dyslexic. I am not really interested or capable of reading 200 pages.
Then Why here?

FYI, most of us are reading/have read first 200/300/500 pages multiple time, something should be there is not it?
  • #62,199
  • Edited Jun 8, 2020 6:10am Jun 7, 2020 12:30pm | Edited Jun 8, 2020 6:10am
Quoting antmindset
{quote} Then Why here? FYI, most of us are reading/have read first 200/300/500 pages multiple time, something should be there is not it?
I responded to the topic of the thread just like any other person would. Since when was it a rule or obligation for anybody to read an entire thread before making a response? if you don't like how threads work then maybe you are the one who should leave.

Make your own forum where every user is obliged to read every single page of a thread before responding to it.

Attached Image


"blablabla I own my own thread blablabla my name is FTI and I am the worlds biggest troll"

amazing response there. Just say a load of nonsensical shite. well done.

I'm going to repeat myself as you're a very scary man. "Sorry for messing with you Mista Supa Dealer.... Please don't hurt me."
  • #62,200
  • Jun 7, 2020 1:59pm Jun 7, 2020 1:59pm
Quoting sharpiemomo
{quote} I responded to the topic of the thread just like any other person would. Since when was it a rule or obligation for anybody to read an entire thread before making a response? if you don't like how threads work then maybe you are the one who should leave. Make your own forum where every user is obliged to read every single page of a thread before responding to it.
haha. so many scorpions to manage. Manage well.
25 traders viewing now