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WTI Crude Oil Trading

  • #8,421
  • Edited 4:10pm Jun 5, 2020 2:03pm | Edited 4:10pm
I bought oil well below $10 and now I am trying to figure out when it would be a good time to close my position...so, with a long term picture in mind, I'd love to get your opinion on how likely a "super-spike" scenario is to materialize:

"IEA expects Q4-2020 demand to be just 2.4 million barrels below that of Q4-2019. If that happens to be an accurate prediction we will go into Q4-2020 with 2.5 million barrels per day supply deficit and that’s assuming OPEC just goes back to producing what it did in February 2020, i.e. not enforcing any additional cuts. The key point though is that the supply lost in the non-OPEC world will have a very hard time coming back online at prices under $65-$70/barrel. Taking this idea out further, at some point when the world normalizes and demand returns back to where it would be if COVID-19 had not happened, the supply deficit could be rather incredible to the tune of 6-8 million barrels/day. In 2008 the super-spike of $140/barrel was caused by a 1.0-1.5 million barrel/day shortfall. What happens if we get something five times as large?"
  • #8,422
  • Jun 5, 2020 4:09pm Jun 5, 2020 4:09pm
Quoting rok-sprogar
I bought oil well below $10 and now I am trying to figure out when it would be a good time to close my position...so, with a long term picture in mind, I'd love to get your opinion on how likely a "super-spike" scenario is to materialize: {quote}
If you worry about a down spike you might wish to close only a portion of your position. Day traders often close half their positions when the price hits 50% of their take profit target.
  • #8,423
  • Jun 5, 2020 4:12pm Jun 5, 2020 4:12pm
WTI did quite well today increasing by $1.77 or 5%. It seems that the ride will continue
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  • #8,424
  • Jun 6, 2020 3:19am Jun 6, 2020 3:19am
Longs are going all in

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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #8,425
  • Jun 6, 2020 3:30am Jun 6, 2020 3:30am
I have euro options for January, everything above $25 im real good. On the downside, who knows wtf is gonna happen by January
  • #8,426
  • Jun 6, 2020 9:45am Jun 6, 2020 9:45am
Quoting rok-sprogar
I bought oil well below $10 and now I am trying to figure out when it would be a good time to close my position...so, with a long term picture in mind, I'd love to get your opinion on how likely a "super-spike" scenario is to materialize: "IEA expects Q4-2020 demand to be just 2.4 million barrels below that of Q4-2019. If that happens to be an accurate prediction we will go into Q4-2020 with 2.5 million barrels per day supply deficit and that’s assuming OPEC just goes back to producing what it did in February 2020, i.e. not enforcing any additional...

With a long term picture in mind, the answer is simple. Do you really think oil will go to below 10 a barrel again and if so for how long?

Keep your positions, odds are in favour of a continued rally.. If you get a steep drop on 4hr, daily, you will still be ahead; buy some more, then when it rallies to previous high, exit first position and wait for oil vix spikes on the 4hr, dailies. Then exit second. Rinse and repeat.You have to learn to milk a position.

With regard to super spike, it may go to 100, or it may stop at 50-60. You never know. If you hold and it goes to 100 with a spike great. If it doesn't you know what to do. 5 trades at 10 points is the same as 1 at 50. Not including fees of course. Milk your scenarios. It's a way to press your winners.

Don't worry too much about the inventory reports especially if you' re a long term trader. You'll confuse yourself.
  • #8,427
  • Jun 7, 2020 6:16am Jun 7, 2020 6:16am
Well it's up.. closing the big gap
  • #8,428
  • Jun 7, 2020 12:02pm Jun 7, 2020 12:02pm
[quote = agazzi86; 12988173] Bueno, está arriba ... cerrando la gran brecha [/ quote]
its open?
  • #8,429
  • Jun 7, 2020 3:18pm Jun 7, 2020 3:18pm
is Mexico cutting as well this time around?
  • #8,430
  • Jun 7, 2020 5:46pm Jun 7, 2020 5:46pm
bullish gap
  • #8,431
  • Jun 8, 2020 2:06pm Jun 8, 2020 2:06pm
ok it would appear a correction may be on the table. the high was sold and now we have settled at a low and there was no buying. a bit of support here but i expect it to get broken later. i will not be buying
  • #8,432
  • Jun 8, 2020 4:16pm Jun 8, 2020 4:16pm
Quoting Kwame Freder
ok it would appear a correction may be on the table. the high was sold and now we have settled at a low and there was no buying. a bit of support here but i expect it to get broken later. i will not be buying
Looks like WTI is consolidating but in a weird way since the trading range was $2.05 while the price only went down by a penny from Friday's close.
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  • #8,433
  • Jun 8, 2020 4:29pm Jun 8, 2020 4:29pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} Looks like WTI is consolidating but in a weird way since the trading range was $2.05 while the price only went down by a penny from Friday's close. {image}
The way I see it is WTI shot up over the weekends OPEC news, but then it was sold back down to Friday’s close. That would indicate they are in sell mode.we may get another 200 pips down. A break down further would confirm this to me, while a bounce from here would invalidate that
  • #8,434
  • Jun 8, 2020 4:53pm Jun 8, 2020 4:53pm
kind of remind me when it all started.

price was at around $20-21 when Trump first mentioned that there could be a deal which would remove 12-15 mil barrels per day from the market. heading to weekend before OPEC meeting, price closed at $29. after that weekend, it just kept falling. maybe because it wasn't as much as mentioned by Trump and because of the massive oversupply
  • #8,435
  • Edited 3:39am Jun 9, 2020 2:31am | Edited 3:39am
still to correct little more for limit test to look for next tanking or so
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #8,436
  • Jun 9, 2020 4:10am Jun 9, 2020 4:10am
Whats the reason for todays drop, any thoughts?
  • #8,437
  • Jun 9, 2020 8:28am Jun 9, 2020 8:28am
Quoting shiftyxxpc
Whats the reason for todays drop, any thoughts?
could be it need's a little chill. you know the price has doubled in one month. If that is not enough than add 1 bilion barrels in reserves, that costs to keep. also the production cuts of oil was already "counted in". the growth of covid-19 continues increasingly. what elese.. at these prices probably shale oil gona start pump again. Lybia has started pump oil again. well there are more but these only is enough. so to dream for 55 lvl's soon, i would not bet. rather to keep something we have now level or cheaper.
  • #8,438
  • Jun 9, 2020 8:53am Jun 9, 2020 8:53am
Quoting Kwame Freder
{quote} The way I see it is WTI shot up over the weekends OPEC news, but then it was sold back down to Friday’s close. That would indicate they are in sell mode.we may get another 200 pips down. A break down further would confirm this to me, while a bounce from here would invalidate that
I think more down is coming today 100 - 150 pips but I expect it to bounce shortly after
  • #8,439
  • Jun 9, 2020 10:35am Jun 9, 2020 10:35am
Quoting Kwame Freder
{quote} I think more down is coming today 100 - 150 pips but I expect it to bounce shortly after
scrap that at this point its 50:50. will continue to stay out til direction is clear
  • #8,440
  • Jun 9, 2020 4:17pm Jun 9, 2020 4:17pm
WTI went up by $0.43 today so I still think it's in consolidation mode. The US weekly crude oil stock went up by 8.4 million bbl this is not conductive to higher prices. This could explain why the price dropped in the last trading hour today.
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