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$ For The week of 10/30-With Trade Ideas

  • #61
  • Oct 31, 2006 12:10pm Oct 31, 2006 12:10pm
I could be wrong but I think these levels might just hold we might get some sideways consolidation then a retest of the high ie 9100 or more.. its good to see a nice retracement.. I dont typically like buying at highs but i see potentially good support at 9000 to 8980... I would say larger resistance is prob at the 9150 level at least we should see some kind of retrcement though at anytime... very tricky dealing in these higher levels, unless ur in from a good low level.. then the best thing is to lock in profits I wouldnt try to ride this too much higher without some kind of correction happening first.
  • #62
  • Oct 31, 2006 12:13pm Oct 31, 2006 12:13pm
an interesting thing which should have happened but didnt to my amazement was a quick run up to 9100 then a quick total reversal... that has not taken place yet... looking at the upside potential we are nearing very high levels on the pound.
  • #63
  • Oct 31, 2006 12:35pm Oct 31, 2006 12:35pm
I follow the Kiwi pretty closely-I find it interesting because the carry trade has so much sway over Kiwi's value...here's an intersting link:

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2...efer=australia

It isn't just the carry trade that supports the Kiwi at artificial levels-Japanese citizens can buy bonds that their banks sell to capture Kiwi's higher rates.

So here's some important things to remember about future rate policy:

1. Their gov't wants the Kiwi devalued-probably the only way they can do this is by putting out bogus gov't reports with Kiwi negative info. I got burned on the last Kiwi retail sales report-I still don't believe to this day the number they put out (Kiwi neg) was real. (I did make a killing with AUD/NZD after the last rate announcement though).

2. Their central banker would be happy to oblige if he could. Their inflation rate is still higher then they would like to see, yet they held the rate steady last time. The thing to watch for here is that NZ doesn't have a core CPI-energy is included in their inflation figures. Let's see how energy goes between now and the next rate setting. If we get some more negative reports from thier gov't and energy remains lowered...could a reduction in their rate occur?
  • #64
  • Nov 1, 2006 1:12am Nov 1, 2006 1:12am
Quoting Mr Trend
Perhaps I can help. The reason why you saw it move down 30 pips isn't because of the reaction to the news... it was the usual morning fakeout.

Every morning, around 7-8AM London time, the market will take off. Like clockwork, it reverses. This is because smart money is sucking in traders so that they can reverse on them, hit their stops, and create liquidity for the real move, which in this case, is bullish.

This happens very reliably. Not every time, but enough that you can develop a system for it...

Remember -- forex trading is all about liquidity. It's all about sucking in the dumb money to make big money for the smart traders... That's how banks and institutions work.

If I'm a bank, I'm gonna push the market down just enough to start getting people to go with me... because I know, psychologically, that even if people hang on, at some point they'll turn around and run in that direction... that's when I reverse it on them and hit them hard, triggering their stops, which then adds more liquidity for my clients who are wanting to put on the actual trade size that moves the market hard and fast...

Hope this helps.
I like the above thought of a Sucker's Game.

Hmmm... I should from now on, consider such a psychology and avoid the pitfall of taking the bait.

I remember last friday (US GDP) GBPUSD was moving down fast; several traders at Marketiva were shouting "SELL SELL SELL". We all know what happened to GBPUSD then... It almost fooled me!

Either it be "Morning Fake Out" or "Profit Taking" the end result is same - to fool the fools into taking the bait.
  • #65
  • Nov 1, 2006 1:17am Nov 1, 2006 1:17am
Quoting NewstraderFX
I follow the Kiwi pretty closely-I find it interesting because the carry trade has so much sway over Kiwi's value...here's an intersting link:

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2...efer=australia

It isn't just the carry trade that supports the Kiwi at artificial levels-Japanese citizens can buy bonds that their banks sell to capture Kiwi's higher rates.

So here's some important things to remember about future rate policy:

1. Their gov't wants the Kiwi devalued-probably the only way they can do this is by putting out bogus gov't reports with Kiwi negative info. I got burned on the last Kiwi retail sales report-I still don't believe to this day the number they put out (Kiwi neg) was real. (I did make a killing with AUD/NZD after the last rate announcement though).

2. Their central banker would be happy to oblige if he could. Their inflation rate is still higher then they would like to see, yet they held the rate steady last time. The thing to watch for here is that NZ doesn't have a core CPI-energy is included in their inflation figures. Let's see how energy goes between now and the next rate setting. If we get some more negative reports from thier gov't and energy remains lowered...could a reduction in their rate occur?
Yesterday, I was in a talk with my cousin who is a stock trader, money lender, financier ... He was earning 2% a month and happy about it.

He is totally ignorant of Forex but before I told him about Carry Trade, he already knows about JPY's low interest rate, borrowing JPY to buy other currencies with higher interest rate...

It does not take a forex trader to know that Carry is very popular.... No wonder Japanese are selling their Yen in favor of NZD, USD, GBP, AUD....
  • #66
  • Nov 1, 2006 5:53am Nov 1, 2006 5:53am
I'm sure he's very happy with 2%/mth-who wouldn't be?...lol

Unfourtunately, I don't have a 50 million dollar line of credit at any Japanese banks at this time...know how to get one?

Not only do carry traders capture the int rate diff, but if the Kiwi appreciates vs the yen or $, there positions become even more valuable. So these traders, who have alot of control over the Kiwi's rate, can buy the Kiwi to support their positions.
What I'm keeping in the back of my mind here for the nest NZ rate announcement is the previous post. I really think any of the above indications may signal a rate decrease for next time. The whole thing may depend on where energy prices are...
  • #67
  • Nov 1, 2006 6:38am Nov 1, 2006 6:38am
more often than not especially during NFP youll get a move opposite the move right before 8:30 or it will spike one way then form a hammer and move the other way...
  • #68
  • Nov 1, 2006 6:47am Nov 1, 2006 6:47am
its almost time... let see where this pair goes.. we good get a quick pop down but the main trend is up as far as the dailys go.. not that it cant reverse...
  • #69
  • Nov 1, 2006 7:27am Nov 1, 2006 7:27am
Anyone make any pips, had another bad experience with my crappy broker, MB Trading, stopped me out at 1.2815 EURO, but it never got that far up, did anyone else see 2815 on the EURO ?
Ghost Swoopen in for my pips while no one is lookin !!
  • #70
  • Nov 1, 2006 7:31am Nov 1, 2006 7:31am
Nah, highest EURO reached on my chart was 2797
  • #71
  • Nov 1, 2006 7:35am Nov 1, 2006 7:35am
2797 always keep a second chart open...
  • #72
  • Nov 1, 2006 7:42am Nov 1, 2006 7:42am
ISM numbers caused the price to spike 30 pips or so. Now there is a retrace. Get in now or it might be too late for retrace.

What is the deal with levels? There is too many talk about levels here, i could have sworn this was a FA News niche forum.
  • #73
  • Nov 1, 2006 7:44am Nov 1, 2006 7:44am
I was long on GBP/USD before the news, made +42 pips with 1 lot only
I was out at 1.9132, I did not fade, just observing the reaction.

I think we will see a lot of profit taking ahead, full retrace after the announecement seems to confirm this. I expect the pair to go down at least 30 pip further. Just my opinion NOT a recommendation.

I'm flat now, looking ahead for Bernanke's speech, I will not trade that though.
  • #74
  • Nov 1, 2006 7:53am Nov 1, 2006 7:53am
GBP/USD is falling sharp after the ISM spike. Guess everyone is rushing to quit before Bernanks and NFP. After all, short GBP/USD at 1.91 level offer a very good risk/reward. Make almost 80 pips from 1.8950 to 1.9330 this moring and is now selling GBP/USD from 1.9330 and holding it until it collapse back to 1.90/1.89 region. Friday NFP is the only risk event.
  • #75
  • Nov 1, 2006 7:54am Nov 1, 2006 7:54am
Quoting Ghostpipper
Anyone make any pips, had another bad experience with my crappy broker, MB Trading, stopped me out at 1.2815 EURO, but it never got that far up, did anyone else see 2815 on the EURO ?
You should give em a call on that one.
Sounds like a mistake to me
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #76
  • Nov 1, 2006 7:56am Nov 1, 2006 7:56am
1.9330?
  • #77
  • Nov 1, 2006 7:57am Nov 1, 2006 7:57am
Quoting FXopportunist
You should give em a call on that one.
Sounds like a mistake to me
Ya ill tell you how the call goes, well its a volatile markey and spikes happen they say!!! Ive called at least 2 times before and thats all they say, how do u argue that? its total crap, but ya ill call em again.......
Ghost Swoopen in for my pips while no one is lookin !!
  • #78
  • Nov 1, 2006 7:59am Nov 1, 2006 7:59am
oops... sorry, i mean 1.9130.

My trade is :

Long from 1.9050 TP 1.9130

Now, short at 1.9125 and holding, hopefully until 1.9000 all depend on Bernanke. If it doesn't will TP at 1.9100
  • #79
  • Nov 1, 2006 8:04am Nov 1, 2006 8:04am
Quoting Ghostpipper
Ya ill tell you how the call goes, well its a volatile markey and spikes happen they say!!! Ive called at least 2 times before and thats all they say, how do u argue that? its total crap, but ya ill call em again.......
They'll just tell you, "Well, that's the quotes we got from our bank."

This isn't the first time I've heard about this from MB... and MB is actually a darn good broker...
Mr. Trend
  • #80
  • Nov 1, 2006 8:09am Nov 1, 2006 8:09am
I was wondering... Will Ben do some Hawkishness and the market buying it?

The last 2 times he talked, he didnot mention a thing about currency nor economy.
On the trading floor, a Rate Cut is the discussion.
GDP is showing a faster than "soft landing" slowdown.
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