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The Swamp

  • #66,281
  • Jun 3, 2020 5:47am Jun 3, 2020 5:47am
Quoting gatorinla
come on eu https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hb72p4afYbo
1.1225 is Year Pivot...
  • #66,282
  • Edited 6:03am Jun 3, 2020 5:48am | Edited 6:03am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I think tracking price at some degree maybe very helpful... especially when price is in line with COT data.. I remember previous 5 weeks before last 2 week, they have accumulated longs ( net longs) around 1.07 to 1.09 area..we can expect price will go up with time,,,,now we saw this happening..
Yes true, it could be good to dig into it and see how it worked

I even thought of doing some probabilities of occurance, aka if all markets participants are increasing their longs (or shorts) i check how many times it happened over the past 5/10 years and see how it worked out the following week

Example of the past week

Since 2017, whenever long dealers decreased their positions, short dealers increased, asset managers .....etc..
Such situation happened 4 times (weeks) over the past 179 weeks, and the following week price of the euro rose 3 out of the 4 times (the other one was a flat week)

And this current week is up...

But i guess this strategy would be for options traders (bet on bullish or bearish week without worrying of the price)
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #66,283
  • Jun 3, 2020 5:57am Jun 3, 2020 5:57am
Short AU 6884

Target 6865
  • #66,284
  • Jun 3, 2020 6:02am Jun 3, 2020 6:02am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Yes true, it could be good to dig into it and see how it worked I even thought of doing some probabilities of occurance, aka if all markets participants are increasing their longs (or shorts) i check how many times it happened over the past 5/10 years and see how it worked out the following week Example of the past week Since 2017, whenever long dealers decreased their positions, short dealers increased, asset managers .....etc.. Such situation happened 4 times (weeks) over the past 179 weeks, and the following week price of the euro rose...
current week is up,.. you use yesterday close, the same as COT ?
  • #66,285
  • Jun 3, 2020 6:12am Jun 3, 2020 6:12am
EurJpy is giving up.. EurUsd may follow... lets see,,,Eur will go to next option level
  • #66,286
  • Jun 3, 2020 6:29am Jun 3, 2020 6:29am
Bears first battle M30 1185 uptrend stop///...28 mins to go.. lets see bears can win this...
  • #66,287
  • Jun 3, 2020 6:30am Jun 3, 2020 6:30am
Quoting jaylovin
Short AU 6884 Target 6865

out +19
  • #66,288
  • Jun 3, 2020 6:31am Jun 3, 2020 6:31am
Short 1193-1191
  • #66,289
  • Jun 3, 2020 6:41am Jun 3, 2020 6:41am
short GJ 136.33

TP 136.02
  • #66,290
  • Jun 3, 2020 6:54am Jun 3, 2020 6:54am
took small sell to this hourly close, can eat 5-10 pips easy. 1.1190 it the target to watch
hourly above 1.12054 i close it and look to buy.
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  • #66,291
  • Jun 3, 2020 6:55am Jun 3, 2020 6:55am
Quoting Tekin
{quote} everyone waitg for a huge fall but its only makine 40 pips down and continue rally. i think 2 hours later with ecb cut rate and a spike if it drops after this spark. because m15 cloning the up movement.
40 pips down is ok and same story starting again?
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  • #66,292
  • Jun 3, 2020 7:01am Jun 3, 2020 7:01am
Quoting jaylovin
short GJ 136.33 TP 136.02

hmm post was deleted... target still valid, i am holding
  • #66,293
  • Jun 3, 2020 7:01am Jun 3, 2020 7:01am
I think today is going to be reversal day. Looks like the eu selling has begun.
Once it starts, don't think it will stop considering ecb is tmr.
  • #66,294
  • Jun 3, 2020 7:03am Jun 3, 2020 7:03am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} current week is up,.. you use yesterday close, the same as COT ?
end of week close (friday close)

But because its released on tuesday, maybe use the tuesday close?
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #66,295
  • Jun 3, 2020 7:04am Jun 3, 2020 7:04am
Quoting kuroro001
GU has some good volume for the bearish side, but it seems to be a dollar and yen move so far Below 12550 could help for 12505 For the EU below 1183 is good for 1131
Not yet for both, just bounced off

Bring back the bears
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #66,296
  • Jun 3, 2020 7:15am Jun 3, 2020 7:15am
Quoting jaylovin
{quote} hmm post was deleted... target still valid, i am holding
GJ:

Add one 136.51 short
  • #66,297
  • Jun 3, 2020 7:17am Jun 3, 2020 7:17am
Quoting gatenio
took small sell to this hourly close, can eat 5-10 pips easy. 1.1190 it the target to watch hourly above 1.12054 i close it and look to buy. {image}
modify TP to fill the ADR @ 1.1157
15m candle below 1.1187 (near Boulder 30m uptrendstop) will give bears more power.
  • #66,298
  • Jun 3, 2020 7:24am Jun 3, 2020 7:24am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} end of week close (friday close) But because its released on tuesday, maybe use the tuesday close?
I think so,, COT report is a snapshot of those groups as of Tuesdays the same week ( prev Wed to Tues)... I would use closing price that day for tracking as well..
  • #66,299
  • Jun 3, 2020 7:26am Jun 3, 2020 7:26am
Quoting gatenio
{quote} modify TP to fill the ADR @ 1.1157 15m candle below 1.1187 (near Boulder 30m uptrendstop) will give bears more power.
M30 @1189 now...bulls not giving up
  • #66,300
  • Jun 3, 2020 7:26am Jun 3, 2020 7:26am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I think so,, COT report is a snapshot of those groups as of Tuesdays the same week ( prev Wed to Tues)... I would use closing price that day for tracking as well..
I'll have a look and see how it works then
COT: The precious data ignored
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