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The Swamp

  • #66,241
  • Jun 3, 2020 3:51am Jun 3, 2020 3:51am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} not sure this can get to 1240s..due to 2 billion option expy at 1210-1220 today....of course if this can get there, i will short without hesitation..
I think you are right. I am seeing first bearish signs on M15. I will start shorting between 1,1220 en 30, if it gets up there again.
  • #66,242
  • Jun 3, 2020 3:54am Jun 3, 2020 3:54am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Thanks! This place is full of good traders and no there are no "i'm the best trader" contest in here , it suits me better You are talking about the stock market for the dip buying? If so, i do agree but buying s&p 3100 ? i'm not taking that risk yet
yup love the thread.

not 3100 much lower. i am out even on individual names. so have no idea. on the short term i think we are in for a pullback
but HedgeFunds needs to beat the market. so competition for the dips will hard

I even sold TSLA 15% below today's price. .even if i said i will never sell it .. Nasdaq 0.5% to all time highs.

But on this bearish environment + bad positioning i think we go higher.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #66,243
  • Jun 3, 2020 3:58am Jun 3, 2020 3:58am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} I guess we'll see on friday if they have unloaded but they were heavy loaded and such process don't happen within a week. It could take weeks (months) before they reverse their course Of course there'll be up and down along the way up, but for now i'm bearish JPY, bullish CAD, bearish CHF (all as per COT report) About the retailers, for sure they were Are you looking the FXCM SSI ? it can be a good indicator of market sentiment too
Guys in my office are starting to stay away from yen for now. Only closing positions. They are more focused on aud crosses. Lots of them are long aud including me.

I don't have a yen or chf position. But similar to you I'm bullish cad.
I'm bullish aud.
bearish usd.

Having said that... I find the market a little bit overextended. But there hasn't been any event to trigger an unloading of position yet. So I'm sort of just sitting on my positions.
  • #66,244
  • Jun 3, 2020 4:10am Jun 3, 2020 4:10am
Quoting thelws
{quote} Guys in my office are starting to stay away from yen for now. Only closing positions. They are more focused on aud crosses. Lots of them are long aud including me. I don't have a yen or chf position. But similar to you I'm bullish cad. I'm bullish aud. bearish usd. Having said that... I find the market a little bit overextended. But there hasn't been any event to trigger an unloading of position yet. So I'm sort of just sitting on my positions.
In your office on the trading floor? or other jobs?

They are long aud as retailers? meaning its bad?

For AUD i look at the copper price, and i see producers increasing their short hedge, which is not good for AUD prices
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #66,245
  • Jun 3, 2020 4:11am Jun 3, 2020 4:11am
Short are cooling off on top, good news for shorts?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.JPG Size: 118 KB

source : fxcm
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #66,246
  • Jun 3, 2020 4:13am Jun 3, 2020 4:13am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} I guess we'll see on friday if they have unloaded but they were heavy loaded and such process don't happen within a week. It could take weeks (months) before they reverse their course Of course there'll be up and down along the way up, but for now i'm bearish JPY, bullish CAD, bearish CHF (all as per COT report) About the retailers, for sure they were Are you looking the FXCM SSI ? it can be a good indicator of market sentiment too
i would short the market. only as a hedge
but going into specific. and in no way i want to offend looking into earnings and listening to conference call companies are doing way better than "investors" assume
also huge support from gov.

even here. you got all loans delayed for 9-12 months. grants are coming, delayed in taxes so honestly if economy picks up
for a solid healthy business you have a lot of support. even for bad sectors still closed there are part of wages for employees supported by gov
So what can you ask more ?
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #66,247
  • Jun 3, 2020 4:13am Jun 3, 2020 4:13am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} In your office on the trading floor? or other jobs? They are long aud as retailers? meaning its bad? For AUD i look at the copper price, and i see producers increasing their short hedge, which is not good for AUD prices
Trading floor. Portfolio managers.
They are not retailers.

Like I said, the market is a bit overextended. All of us and even the guys in this thread agree that some correction is due. We just don't know when.

Everyone is kinda sitting on their positions waiting for the next trigger.
  • #66,248
  • Jun 3, 2020 4:18am Jun 3, 2020 4:18am
And what you guys think about the current EU rally? adding more? or unloading?
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #66,249
  • Jun 3, 2020 4:21am Jun 3, 2020 4:21am
Quoting kuroro001
And what you guys think about the current EU rally? adding more? or unloading?
I know boulder and gator are bearish. They even got positions already.
I'm still long eur. But I'm not adding more longs at this level. I got some sell limits from 1230-1240 level though.
  • #66,250
  • Jun 3, 2020 4:23am Jun 3, 2020 4:23am
I got two buy limits. I will cancel them if 1,1237 is hit earlier.

1,1184 SL: 15 pips.
1,1161 (DPP) SL: 11 pips.

Target for both as you can see is 1,1237.

My pending sell orders are 1,1237 and 1,1245. I might as well enter early on todays high. SL for all sell orders = 1,1255

Play it as you want, let me remind you that 161% is almost reached.
  • #66,251
  • Jun 3, 2020 4:23am Jun 3, 2020 4:23am
Quoting kuroro001
And what you guys think about the current EU rally? adding more? or unloading?
everyone waitg for a huge fall but its only makine 40 pips down and continue rally. i think 2 hours later with ecb cut rate and a spike if it drops after this spark. because m15 cloning the up movement.
  • #66,252
  • Jun 3, 2020 4:26am Jun 3, 2020 4:26am
Quoting kuroro001
Short are cooling off on top, good news for shorts? {image} source : fxcm
can you post the address? thanks
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #66,253
  • Jun 3, 2020 4:26am Jun 3, 2020 4:26am
Quoting kuroro001
And what you guys think about the current EU rally? adding more? or unloading?
i'm stuck in short with a avg price 150p below. last add will be 1.123 for me. and than wait.
either way if we get a pullback i will either close some of tha position or just work around it.
had some hedges with GU, calls but not enough. also EU position was bigger
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #66,254
  • Jun 3, 2020 4:30am Jun 3, 2020 4:30am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} can you post the address? thanks
All charts can be found here

https://twitter.com/FXCM_MarketData
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #66,255
  • Jun 3, 2020 4:30am Jun 3, 2020 4:30am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} i'm stuck in short with a avg price 150p below. last add will be 1.123 for me. and than wait. either way if we get a pullback i will either close some of tha position or just work around it. had some hedges with GU, calls but not enough. also EU position was bigger
Same here. Stuck average short eu 1.0830. No more bullets to add. In fact worry of being closed as equity is very thin.
  • #66,256
  • Jun 3, 2020 4:33am Jun 3, 2020 4:33am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} i'm stuck in short with a avg price 150p below. last add will be 1.123 for me. and than wait. either way if we get a pullback i will either close some of tha position or just work around it. had some hedges with GU, calls but not enough. also EU position was bigger
Hope it goes down too, got a few shorts, not adding yet, i'd wait ECB i think.

For now i'm looking at 1130/50 and see what happens here

Hope we'll be right soon, but clearly we can go very deep down in the future
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #66,257
  • Jun 3, 2020 4:36am Jun 3, 2020 4:36am
a little bearish harami pattern on 1 h.. no R candle to the left. But some pa R
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 10 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #66,258
  • Jun 3, 2020 4:39am Jun 3, 2020 4:39am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} All charts can be found here https://twitter.com/FXCM_MarketData
thanks..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #66,259
  • Jun 3, 2020 4:42am Jun 3, 2020 4:42am
i'll be out a couple of days. need to travel across the country to see how thing are opening

talk to you all soon

take care
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #66,260
  • Jun 3, 2020 4:45am Jun 3, 2020 4:45am
Quoting Tekin
{quote} everyone waitg for a huge fall but its only makine 40 pips down and continue rally. i think 2 hours later with ecb cut rate and a spike if it drops after this spark. because m15 cloning the up movement.
i confused i think this data is tomorrow so i am shorting carefully.
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