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Trade another day through Systematic Trading

  • #181
  • Edited 9:16pm May 30, 2019 8:55pm | Edited 9:16pm
some inspiring videos on RMI

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  • #182
  • May 30, 2019 9:16pm May 30, 2019 9:16pm
Another one on optimization / overfitting / underfitting

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  • #183
  • Jul 5, 2019 10:58am Jul 5, 2019 10:58am
Very interesting summary of Michael Douglas's Trading in the Zone:


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  • #184
  • Jul 18, 2019 2:11am Jul 18, 2019 2:11am
Hi alphadude, quick question regarding your strategy on USDJPY. When you say you tested with no stop loss, but exit on opposite signal, does that mean for example if after the first 2 hours of the day, price breaks above that range, you take a long, but if it retraces and reaches the low of that range, you exit? In that case, doesn't the range itself define the SL?

Thanks,
  • #185
  • Jul 18, 2019 3:02am Jul 18, 2019 3:02am
Quoting Barraka
Hi alphadude, quick question regarding your strategy on USDJPY. When you say you tested with no stop loss, but exit on opposite signal, does that mean for example if after the first 2 hours of the day, price breaks above that range, you take a long, but if it retraces and reaches the low of that range, you exit? In that case, doesn't the range itself define the SL? Thanks,
you can call it SL if you like, but it is part of the strategy logic. if a sell signal is triggered, then the long signal is no longer valid.
  • #186
  • Nov 7, 2019 11:21am Nov 7, 2019 11:21am
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  • #187
  • Jan 27, 2020 4:18pm Jan 27, 2020 4:18pm
Alright fellows; it's been really a long while since I posted in this thread; more than a year it seems.

Markets have been quieter than usual; and that produced less profit or no profit; and that was the case for me in 2019.

In fact I stopped all my EAs circa June 2019 after suffering a 25% drawdown from equity high. That was a trigger point for "strategy death".

what was unusual is that all my EAs stopped working at once; kind of a curse.

I have spend tons of research since then to present day; and evaluated many discretionary strategies out there (mainly price action); and even took some mentorship with some fellow educators who pretend to trade; but sadly they don't fucking trade.

I have manually backtested few of the strategies; and some of them turned to EAs; but sadly none works! all fluffs. Many discretionary traders may make money and the edge is not necessarely in the system they preach; it could be intuition; as human mind is the most complex algo in the planet.

Anyhow; I have reached a conclusion that EAs is the way to go for me; so I am making a come back.

I will be posting my progress; and possibly PNL at the end of each month.
  • #188
  • Jan 28, 2020 8:17am Jan 28, 2020 8:17am
Hi Aplha,

I had similar experiences with my autotrading, and turned to descretionary trading. And to my surprise (only in my first few years long time ago I traded discretionary) so far it serves me well.
I was convinced automatic trading was the key, but now... I'm not so sure anymore.
Will see how this develops, maybe in the end i can filter out a new system and once again go the auto trading route.
Persistence will get it. Consistency will keep it.
  • #189
  • Jan 28, 2020 4:32pm Jan 28, 2020 4:32pm
Quoting Chake
Hi Aplha, I had similar experiences with my autotrading, and turned to descretionary trading. And to my surprise (only in my first few years long time ago I traded discretionary) so far it serves me well. I was convinced automatic trading was the key, but now... I'm not so sure anymore. Will see how this develops, maybe in the end i can filter out a new system and once again go the auto trading route.
Interesting experience;

There is big potential in discretionary trading; but the emotional toll and discipline in getting early on time etc is daunting to say the least.

I am still manually trading but on a smaller scale. I do that to keep up with the markets; and helps improve the EAs.

What I learned so far;
- is that manual trading does help in keeping in touch with the markets; and convenient if you only do trading for 3 hours a day; few days a week. Usually during London session.
- I realize how good EAs can be when compared to the discretionary style strategies
- To be successful in EA; don't be all over the place with having many EAs running. It may be a good idea for diversification; but it is mostly EA diversification masterbation. You really need to focus on one system; and improve it inside down day in day out. Give it all the focus you have; just like you do in discretionary trading. EA need improvement all the time; and you cannot do that alone on many EAs.

What type of strategy are you trading manually? I do price action reversal on support/resistance.
  • #190
  • Jan 29, 2020 10:32am Jan 29, 2020 10:32am
Quoting alphadude
{quote}What type of strategy are you trading manually? I do price action reversal on support/resistance.
Exactly this
Persistence will get it. Consistency will keep it.
  • #191
  • Jan 29, 2020 12:17pm Jan 29, 2020 12:17pm
Quoting Chake
{quote} Exactly this
Good stuff; that's what I concluded in past 8 months of lengthy research and testing; S&R is the golden goose of trading; especially in FX.
  • #192
  • Feb 25, 2020 9:57am Feb 25, 2020 9:57am
Quoting alphadude
{quote} Interesting experience; There is big potential in discretionary trading; but the emotional toll and discipline in getting early on time etc is daunting to say the least. I am still manually trading but on a smaller scale. I do that to keep up with the markets; and helps improve the EAs. What I learned so far; - is that manual trading does help in keeping in touch with the markets; and convenient if you only do trading for 3 hours a day; few days a week. Usually during London session. - I realize how good EAs can be when compared to the discretionary...
Most of traders neglect basics. Otherwise trading is not complicated as long as you are properly capitalised and using the money which is not going to affect you substantially.

You don't have to stick to FX Now CFDS are available for all kinds of instruments including stocks. Far better to trade them.

Stock index is a product which provides a lot of volatility , far more than FX pairs.

ADR of Dow Jones is 350 ticks (pips) . GBPJPY ADR is 200 pips.

When calculated on the basis of daily ADR, a good broker should not charge more than 2.5% including spreads and round turn. Most of CFD brokers are market makers and don't touch them.

Interactive Brokers is the best in price and reliability. But like MT4 you can't use an EA.

Darwinex is a reliable broker because they use IB and others as CFD liquidity provider.

You can use this EA or create your own based on this. It works very well.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=954503


Stock indices can be traded with small amount as well.
.
I choose an amount equivalent to Stop Loss and divide it in 10 lots.

The present EA uses all amount in the account. The EA has no facility to go below 100% of margin. So you have to use broker's wallet to store your money and transfer a portion of it towards trading account.

Use any method to detect strong movement. Don't make it complicated. Just one indicator should be enough.

Direction bias is established by trending indicators.

EA is useful if you use it to jump on the momentum train by putting profits as well into the kitty.

A skilled trader who waits for momentum period (news trading) or jumps into trading when news breakes out of incidents like Corona, Iran attack and such geopolitical events can easily make 100% a month using the Margin Trader Ea.

You have to code a scanner kind of statistical indicator which can give an idea of momentum timing. You can use build MT4 File database .
Idea is to identify times of momentum and frequency of 25 to 50 pips sized trades.

In case of stock indexes, everybody know the hot hours are hours are Opening hour and closing hour.

Don't lose heart and focus on a single trading method.

For instance, yesterday I made 25% of return on margin deposit in a day. Nothing to guess. Just jumped on the momentum train using the Margin Trader.

I have nothing to brag about or sell,. so I am sending you the myfxbook link of my real account just to motivate you. I feel sorry when talented coders like you don't take financial trading as a business needing attention and efforts.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #193
  • Edited 3:38pm Feb 25, 2020 3:08pm | Edited 3:38pm
Quoting simnz
{quote} Most of traders neglect basics. Otherwise trading is not complicated as long as you are properly capitalised and using the money which is not going to affect you substantially. You don't have to stick to FX Now CFDS are available for all kinds of instruments including stocks. Far better to trade them. Stock index is a product which provides a lot of volatility , far more than FX pairs. ADR of Dow Jones is 350 ticks (pips) . GBPJPY ADR is 200 pips. When calculated on the basis of daily ADR, a good broker should not charge more than 2.5% including...

Nice work! will definitely check it out!



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  • #194
  • Edited 2:21pm Apr 30, 2020 1:24pm | Edited 2:21pm
So far this year have been good recovery after ditching discretionary trading; and going for 100% automated.

What a relief; there are so much crap out there with fake educators (both discretionary and automated styles); who promise millions of pips and they are all hiding behind their screens trying to get more students to fund their lifestyle. none of them is trading; although they pretend to be.

however; kudos to all our friends who are making profit consistently through discrtionary trading; like profitfarmer, aussi and others. It's a tough work to do manual trading; i tried it a bit; and got very tired and exhausted. I can't stay in the front the screen all day; am getting older
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  • #195
  • Jun 1, 2020 5:27am Jun 1, 2020 5:27am
May 2020 Update:
Good positive month again; I am still trading conservatively to preserve capital.

MTD: 4.62%
YTD: 15.3%
Max DD: -3.39%
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  • #196
  • Jun 1, 2020 5:44am Jun 1, 2020 5:44am
Quoting alphadude
May 2020 Update: Good positive month again; I am still trading conservatively to preserve capital. MTD: 4.62% YTD: 15.3% Max DD: -3.39% {image} {image}
Nice work AD! Are you still using mean reversion as your primary strategy?
  • #197
  • Jun 1, 2020 5:46am Jun 1, 2020 5:46am
yep; 100% mean reversion
  • #198
  • Jun 1, 2020 5:52am Jun 1, 2020 5:52am
Quoting alphadude
yep; 100% mean reversion
That's excellent. Do you restrict your trading to certain pairs or sessions?
  • #199
  • Jun 1, 2020 7:57am Jun 1, 2020 7:57am
Quoting carddard
{quote} That's excellent. Do you restrict your trading to certain pairs or sessions?
very good question; and yes to both questions.

I only trade the majors; and avoid pegged currencies like USDCHF; and avoid all crosses. EURUSD reprepsents 90% of all of my trades.

I usually avoid opening hours; London open and NY open; and sometimes even London close as well.

In my opinion; it's better to focus on one or two pairs; rather than be all over the place.
  • #200
  • Jun 1, 2020 7:46pm Jun 1, 2020 7:46pm
Quoting alphadude
{quote} very good question; and yes to both questions. I only trade the majors; and avoid pegged currencies like USDCHF; and avoid all crosses. EURUSD reprepsents 90% of all of my trades. I usually avoid opening hours; London open and NY open; and sometimes even London close as well. In my opinion; it's better to focus on one or two pairs; rather than be all over the place.
Very nice. You clearly know what you're doing.
I would think you'd prefer smaller TFs like M15?
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