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  • Poll

  • Which idea code this week?
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  • #1
  • First Post: May 31, 2020 6:53am May 31, 2020 6:53am
Now first of all , I will code it for free but i have limited time. So be picky with your question.

I need out of box questions like. I will pick the most interesting one end of the each week and code it for free. Maybe we can do poll for community and decide what to be coded.
Lets say i will pick top interesting ones and put in a poll. Then we decide what to be coded each week. If other people joins me then we can code more ideas in short time. Sharing is caring. Let's see


There can be ideas like,

What is the probability of moving %10 of daily average if candle already made move of %100 of daily average.

So i am waiting for your questions that can be asked to the history and coded here.

Please remember it is not any coding EA or strategy. We gonna find just probabilities here.

God Bless,

Take care !
Take it easy.
  • #2
  • May 31, 2020 9:42am May 31, 2020 9:42am
Quoting Paul-angel
Pleas help me code a VOLUME AT PRICE INDICATOR It display both buy and sell volume on the same bar of the same price
Please read the first post.. This thread not for regular coding. It just to code indicators to check probabilities. I gave an example question in first post.....
Take it easy.
  • #3
  • May 31, 2020 10:40am May 31, 2020 10:40am
Here is my attempt

If price moved from current daily open price already 50% ADR(of 20 days for example), what are the probabilities it will continue to 75% ADR?
Please make in the tool the number of days for ADR calculation to be an input parameter so you can choose for example ADR(21 days) or ADR(31 days) etc....
The output of the tool should state also the number of samples used to calculate the probabilities.

for example:
37,9% (out of 10000 days)
that means over 10000 days where price reached from daily open 50% ADR(20) the likihood of price moving further from 50% ADR(20) to 75% ADR(20) are 37,9%
  • #4
  • Jun 1, 2020 7:30am Jun 1, 2020 7:30am
Quoting Merka
Here is my attempt If price moved from current daily open price already 50% ADR(of 20 days for example), what are the probabilities it will continue to 75% ADR? Please make in the tool the number of days for ADR calculation to be an input parameter so you can choose for example ADR(21 days) or ADR(31 days) etc.... The output of the tool should state also the number of samples used to calculate the probabilities. for example: 37,9% (out of 10000 days) that means over 10000 days where price reached from daily open 50% ADR(20) the likihood of price...
Ok lets start with this
Take it easy.
  • #5
  • Jun 1, 2020 7:35am Jun 1, 2020 7:35am
Hi,
Great starting, can you make EA of indicator? I have some.

Please reply so i can explain you with indicator.


Thanks
  • #6
  • Jun 1, 2020 6:10pm Jun 1, 2020 6:10pm
Quoting praful_patat
Hi, Great starting, can you make EA of indicator? I have some. Please reply so i can explain you with indicator. Thanks
No EA. I will not code any EA's if some people like the probabilities we find they can try to make something out of it.
I will just code to find some probabilities here. If you have some question to find just ask lets see.
Take it easy.
  • #7
  • Jun 2, 2020 7:01am Jun 2, 2020 7:01am
Quoting Quants
{quote} Ok lets start with this
Thanks
  • #8
  • Jun 2, 2020 7:39am Jun 2, 2020 7:39am
Hi Quants.

An interesting indicator to make could be a ratios indicator. I don't thinki such an indi exists for MT4.
A common ratio might be the Silver / Glod ratio for instance. So you could have an indi where you could enter into the inputs XAG and XAU to get this ratio.

I for one think it might be nice to get ratios for:
SPX / XAU
or

USD / XAU
or

BTC / XAU

It doesn't need to be gold. Of course it could be anything like SPX / DAX

I think more could come from this investigation.
  • #9
  • Jun 2, 2020 12:45pm Jun 2, 2020 12:45pm
Quoting derekw
Hi Quants. An interesting indicator to make could be a ratios indicator. I don't thinki such an indi exists for MT4. A common ratio might be the Silver / Glod ratio for instance. So you could have an indi where you could enter into the inputs XAG and XAU to get this ratio. I for one think it might be nice to get ratios for: SPX / XAU or USD / XAU or BTC / XAU It doesn't need to be gold. Of course it could be anything like SPX / DAX I think more could come from this investigation.
Can you provide an example with real values what you are trying to achieve with this and what is the question from the probabiliystic aspect ?
Take it easy.
  • #10
  • Jun 3, 2020 4:24am Jun 3, 2020 4:24am
Hi Mr. Quants,

i have a concept of building EA follow trend and momentum, i have done manual backtest with mt4 and i found it would be profitable, so please fine my concept as below:

- Strategy base on RSI 14 + EMA 200
+ RSI period can customize, but default period 14 and EMA too
1- Buy condition : RSI above 70 level and Market above EMA200,
+Take profit: 20 (customize),
+Stoploss= customize,
+ but i prefer Martingale option: Pipstep= 500 point and Multiplier= 1.5 , when entry is loss.

2- Sell condition: RSI below 30 level and Market below EMA200
+Take profit: 20 (customize),
+Stoploss= customize,
+ but i prefer Martingale option: Pipstep= 500 point and Multiplier= 1.5

3- Lots size can bel Manual or Auto base on Balance risk %

My English is not good enough to explain you detail, so if you have any question for more detail please reply.

Thanks in advance,

Loka
  • #11
  • Jun 3, 2020 6:43am Jun 3, 2020 6:43am
Sorry we are not coding strategy or ea's here. The purpose of this thread is completely different and many people still not realized what im offering and the strength of it.
Take it easy.
  • #12
  • Jun 3, 2020 6:44am Jun 3, 2020 6:44am
Quoting Quants
Sorry we are not coding strategy or ea's here. The purpose of this thread is completely different and many people still not realized what im offering and the strength of it.
oh Sad, Thanks for your reply.
  • #13
  • Jun 6, 2020 8:34pm Jun 6, 2020 8:34pm
Quoting Quants
{quote} Ok lets start with this

Hi Quants,

There maybe some tools can be use to check the probabilities.
1. we can use FIBO SEQUENCE to find a confluence
2. At the same time we use FIBO but not ordinary fibo buat FIBO with candle breaks to generate the point of the fibo and also see the confluence
  • #14
  • Edited 3:02pm Jun 8, 2020 2:35pm | Edited 3:02pm
Quoting Merka
{quote} Thanks
Hello Merka , Here is the answer of your Question

Fixed some errors download v3

Counter checked only if candle closed between %50 and %75 of the day average.
If Candle spiked from %49 to %75 directly it doesnt effect stats.

The results will vary based on your data amount.

Here is one example chart.

EURUSD H4 CHART. IF H4 Candle closed between %50 and %75.

You have %66 Chance to fail that it will keep going and hit %75 within same day.

The beautiful part here. This stats can be used for the scalping benefits.
In this example whenever M30 Candle closed above %50 and below %55 you had %80 chance that it will hit %55 within same day.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 37 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 31 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 ProbabilityDay_v4.ex4   10 KB | 233 downloads
Take it easy.
  • #15
  • Edited Jun 9, 2020 12:44am Jun 8, 2020 3:11pm | Edited Jun 9, 2020 12:44am
Quoting Quants
...ideas like, What is the probability of moving %10 of daily average if candle already made move of %100 of daily average...
Let me try to throw a challenge:

If we take in consideration user entry Alligator and pSAR settings and pSAR crosses in the same direction as Alligator is trending what is the probability that price will:

- hit SL (1R= X * ATR value) before hitting TP 2R
- hit TP 2R before SL
- hit TP 3R before SL
- hit TP 4R before SL
- hit TP 5R before SL...

God Bless, Take Profit !
  • #16
  • Jun 8, 2020 3:49pm Jun 8, 2020 3:49pm
Added source for the V5
Added opposite touches. Lets see if someone joints to improve core idea
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 ProbabilityDay_v5.mq4   6 KB | 285 downloads
Take it easy.
  • #17
  • Jun 8, 2020 3:49pm Jun 8, 2020 3:49pm
Quoting lawless
{quote} Let me try to throw a challenge: If we take in consideration Alligator settings and pSAR crosses in the same direction as Alligator is trending what is the probability that price will - hit SL (1R= X * ATR value) - hit TP 2R - hit TP 3R - hit TP 4R - hit TP 5R... God Bless, Take profit !
Sure, Next weekend lets do this one.
Take it easy.
  • #18
  • Jun 9, 2020 4:19am Jun 9, 2020 4:19am
The strength of it :
Here is EURUSD M1

Since last 26 days on EURUSD M1
IF M1 Candle closes above of %30 daily average . %95 of the time within same day it reached %40...

%91 Of the time candle closed in opposite direction before reaching %40.

So it gives us conclusion that, If you enter at the candle that closed %30.

More likely you will have continuation in the same direction of the day for atleast %10 and for sure you are going to have a drawdown right after your entry before it happens.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 32 KB
Take it easy.
  • #19
  • Jun 9, 2020 4:31am Jun 9, 2020 4:31am
AN EURUSD EXAMPLE From Today

I have shared source, If someone wants to put hands on it, He can calculate max drawdown when the opp is hit. So you can allso find your best entry point that way
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 42 KB
Take it easy.
  • #20
  • Jun 9, 2020 4:52am Jun 9, 2020 4:52am
Fixed one small bug. Now we make sure when the max treshold hit it was the same direction with MinTreshold
Previously if min treshold %50 hit and it reverses goes all the way opposite and hit %75 it was counted as continuation as well. Fixed. Results not so different but now more accurate.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 ProbabilityDay_v6.mq4   7 KB | 314 downloads
Take it easy.
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