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Bagovino Method

  • #1,141
  • Oct 27, 2006 1:09pm Oct 27, 2006 1:09pm
Quoting athalon7
And the question is: will it hold? Fibonacci can't tell us that, maybe one of the indicators. Please don't misunderstand. It just seems Fibonacci is a great way to explain certain points after the fact, but there seems to be as many points within that grid that don't line up either.
nothing can/will tell you whether a level will hold or not athalon7......

price will do what it will, regardless of lines or indicator plots on a technical canvas.....Fibs, as well as pivots, trendlines or whatever else one utilizes to assist in guaging possible action-reaction zones, are simply that!......assistors or aids.......

levels which house these 'assistors' are observed & interpreted by differing participants engaged in a variety of differing intentions (buy/sell/profit paring/compounding etc, according to their original or intended positions).....

should the level(s) in which these Fibs or whatever you use house a prev area of reactionary activity, it's highly likely it will "react" again as price re-visits this zone..........

they're best used as "watch zones" or complimentary zones to observe the price bars as they form on & around these technical levels.........

any form of confluence which happens to hit on the level, merely amplifies it as a higher potential action zone..........

but it guarantee's nothing!

the "herd" or crowd influence (emotive response to the level) will determine it's intent & onward journey.........
  • #1,142
  • Oct 28, 2006 10:24pm Oct 28, 2006 10:24pm
I swear by Fibonacci and make money alot more times than not!!!


Bago
"Skills pay the bill's!"
  • #1,143
  • Oct 30, 2006 3:38pm Oct 30, 2006 3:38pm
Hi all,

This Bago method seems to work really well :-)
I've downloaded an alert to give me an audible warning when the EMA's cross, but for some reason the alert comes up too late, one hour too late.
My server time is one hour ahead which is affecting it somehow, but I can't make any sense of how the alert is programmed to change it.
I've attached the alert and would be grateful if anyone could amend it for me, or tell me how to do it.

TIA

DS
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 A_Alert_1hrChart.mq4   4 KB | 465 downloads
  • #1,144
  • Oct 30, 2006 6:23pm Oct 30, 2006 6:23pm
Wonder if there is a Bago alert mq4 here??

5/12 ema cross and RSI 21 cross level 50..
The future depends on what we do in the present.
  • #1,145
  • Oct 30, 2006 6:33pm Oct 30, 2006 6:33pm
Quoting compro99
Wonder if there is a Bago alert mq4 here??

5/12 ema cross and RSI 21 cross level 50..
Here you are

edit: This is visual alert - if you want audible also go to inputs tab and change alerts from false to true
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 AX512EMACROSSwRSI.mq4   4 KB | 753 downloads
  • #1,146
  • Edited 7:06am Oct 31, 2006 4:18am | Edited 7:06am
As requested.

Enjoy.

RSI in red and green color. I have disabled the dots too...

To get MACD (or any other indicator) on top of the RSI, just drag the MACD indicator onto the RSI window.

hk
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 RSI-TC.mq4   5 KB | 612 downloads
  • #1,147
  • Oct 31, 2006 5:25am Oct 31, 2006 5:25am
Sorry if this has been covered- But what is the best way to time the entry? Sometimes the RSI and/or 5/12 cross go back and forth during a bar, but sometimes if I wait for the close the majority of the move has happened? Any thoughts? Thanks.
"Its not where your at, but where your coming from"
  • #1,148
  • Oct 31, 2006 10:19am Oct 31, 2006 10:19am
this thread is so long, i read a lot of it but didnt find my answer. id be grateful if someone could help me.

1. profits are taken at fibs, but what is the exact method? 1/2 off at every fib line? half off at the tunnel?

2. you enter when RSI and the MAs cross your way, but how do you exit? do you exit only on an MA cross in the opposite direction, or must you wait for MA cross AND RSI in the opposite direction.

3. how is position sizing done? in the past, i have set my stops logically based on price action, and then bought positions accordingly. but since its hard to know when the MAs will cross, how can i size my position correctly/
  • #1,149
  • Oct 31, 2006 10:32am Oct 31, 2006 10:32am
hey renesdad

could you give some examples of a good setup and a poor setup?
Quoting renasdad
Ok, for anyone using the Vegas tunnel, we have great TP. I feel with the TP, and setting a SL at 30, we have a great risk:reward ratio. We get many signals that produce good trades. There are those trades that do not do so well though. It is not wise to be all excited about how well this system does and jump in on the first signal you see. That is where you will get burnt. Patience is a virtue. Wait for the good setups. I can tell you that from experience. I would get burnt bad just cause there was a signal. Study charts and see where the good trades come from. Not every signal will produce amazing pips.
  • #1,150
  • Oct 31, 2006 11:03am Oct 31, 2006 11:03am
Quoting bagovino
By the way...


You obviously didnt read the thread because you enter not only at the cross but af certain fib levels where your trade is most likely to move. You also take profits at fib levels, NOT when the signal crosses the other way. I guess reading comprehension was not one of your strong suits.....

Best of luck!

Bago
bago, you said that you enter at certain fib levels where the trade is most likely to move. what fib levels do you mean?
  • #1,151
  • Oct 31, 2006 11:45am Oct 31, 2006 11:45am
with the 2% rule, you limit your losses to 2% only, but your gains can be much more than 2%

risking 10% each trade, you can have only 6 losses before your account is at 53% of what it used to be (.9^6=.53)

with 2%, you can have 150 straight losses before your at 50% of your total account

Quoting MrFuture
Yes, it makes sense guys, thanks

MM is the key here

I like the 10% rule...sounds more realistic that the 2% rule that many follow, which I think is complete BS unless your account is big enough for it to make a slight difference when you make a profit. For someone just starting out with a small account, you gotta take some more risks at first and THEN you lower you risk once you got something saved aside.

Future
  • #1,152
  • Oct 31, 2006 12:02pm Oct 31, 2006 12:02pm
Quoting JodyOng
The kiwi made a huge reversal move today. Entering the position at 0.6564 when the 5/12 EMA crossed over the 18/21 EMA with RSI crossing below 50 would have yielded a profit of over 50 pips. However, I sticked to my ACD methods and entered at 0.6511 to capture over 20 pipts but with a huge position. =) That's the beauty of ACD discretionary trading. When you've got multiple signals overlapping each other, you know when to pile up your positions for a huge winning.
could you explaind ACD trading and the use of hte 18/21 ema?
  • #1,153
  • Oct 31, 2006 7:32pm Oct 31, 2006 7:32pm
is the system still valid if there is a bullish crossover and the RSI is already above 50?
  • #1,154
  • Nov 1, 2006 11:55am Nov 1, 2006 11:55am
Clam,


Yes, the system is still bullish and you can add to your position on new crosses. Just be careful when you are at the top or bottom fib lines because there may not be much more room left in the move.

Bagovino
"Skills pay the bill's!"
  • #1,155
  • Nov 1, 2006 12:24pm Nov 1, 2006 12:24pm
ok, but its BEST when both crosses happen at the same time right?
  • #1,156
  • Nov 2, 2006 1:46am Nov 2, 2006 1:46am
Clam,


Yes. That is correct. It also helps if it crosses up from the lower fibs and down from the upper fibs.

B.
"Skills pay the bill's!"
  • #1,157
  • Nov 2, 2006 8:58am Nov 2, 2006 8:58am
I'm really having a hard time spotting the good trades. Every time I go into a trade at a cross I seem to be betting on the same losing horse. I now have ten consecutive losses which makes my sucess rate so far 1 out of 11. Needless to say my self confidence is really low at the moment..

Any suggestions on how to avoid these fake signals? Or maybe im just doing everything all wrong?
Liberate me ex inferis
  • #1,158
  • Nov 2, 2006 1:37pm Nov 2, 2006 1:37pm
Ronyn,


Let me guess... You have been losing by taking the sell signals lately on Eur/Usd correct?
For a higher success rate you only want to take trades in the direction of the trend. So for instance with the eur/usd, since it has been in such a strong uptrend as of late, you only want to take the longs.
So my advice to you is to recognize the main direction of the currency you are trading. Decide if it's bullish or bearish and only take trades in that direction.

A system to use:

Plot an RSI (14) on a daily chart. Only go long if it's over the 50 line and only take shorts if it's under the 50 line.

You will see a huge difference in your winning ratio!!


Bagovino
"Skills pay the bill's!"
  • #1,159
  • Nov 2, 2006 1:40pm Nov 2, 2006 1:40pm
i agree. right now its consolidating all around..might be time for a trend reversal. best to stay away or at least take profits really quick

i was up 700 last night, set to BE. 20 minutes later i was all out of profit =(

Quoting bagovino
Ronyn,


Let me guess... You have been losing by taking the sell signals lately on Eur/Usd correct?
For a higher success rate you only want to take trades in the direction of the trend. So for instance with the eur/usd, since it has been in such a strong uptrend as of late, you only want to take the longs.
So my advice to you is to recognize the main direction of the currency you are trading. Decide if it's bullish or bearish and only take trades in that direction.

A system to use:

Plot an RSI (14) on a daily chart. Only go long if it's over the 50 line and only take shorts if it's under the 50 line.

You will see a huge difference in your winning ratio!!


Bagovino
  • #1,160
  • Nov 3, 2006 1:50am Nov 3, 2006 1:50am
Many thanks for the tip Bagovino. I will give it a shot. Thanks for all your efforts!



Quoting bagovino
Ronyn,


Let me guess... You have been losing by taking the sell signals lately on Eur/Usd correct?
For a higher success rate you only want to take trades in the direction of the trend. So for instance with the eur/usd, since it has been in such a strong uptrend as of late, you only want to take the longs.
So my advice to you is to recognize the main direction of the currency you are trading. Decide if it's bullish or bearish and only take trades in that direction.

A system to use:

Plot an RSI (14) on a daily chart. Only go long if it's over the 50 line and only take shorts if it's under the 50 line.

You will see a huge difference in your winning ratio!!


Bagovino
Liberate me ex inferis
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